POWER DATA ONE WEEK AHEAD - Provides an 80% Correlation to the SPX

Monday, January 17, 2011

Market Timing-Whats Next -Jan18th PM report

Positve energy may have been spent by now, or there could be just little more to go before
a serious correction begins- its hard to pin point exactly when the energy shift effects traders thought
processes and gears them toward selling.

Fed days next week, Jan 25-26, energy doesnt appear positive at that time, and next week seems to be deeper into the energy change/shift.

228bars on Thsday last week pivoted the mkt higher on Friday, and 258bars at 12:30 was only a very moderate blip.

Tuesday pivots
90 bars at 1:30pm
120bars at 4pm which could spill over to Wed Am, but afterward the way appears to have positive energy

ENERGY EFFECTS for the week
Tuesday = negative
Wed = Postive
Thsday = positive afternoon
Friday = negative

I had previously discussed and projected an important turn on or about Jan 20th, and we are ALMOST there, but dont expect the mkt to fall out of bed just yet; The most negative energy is set up for mid to late March, but Feb may give us some indication that a correction has really begun.

 Power data graph for This week shows little or no change, and the EKG might change for the OPEN

once the 8:30am to 9am reports are published

Impact stream right now at 7pm Monday appears much weaker than it has been for a few weeks past.

ALL in ALL, the mkt appears to be losing strength form my perspective above, and I havent even looked at volume or Adv/Decl tech data
On Dec 13th, the INTERNAL tech data reported its LOWEST numbers in years indicating
a GROSSLY overbot market, and yet the bunny kept on rolling higher. so we will have to be from Missouri, and see it in price erosion to confirm the data.

BEARS have been getting BULLED OVER, and just when they thought it would never happen, we might just get that over due correction- and note the strong mkt IMO, is not due to Fed pomo, Bonds, gold or anything else fundamentally similar.

more later

WE really have to make mental adjustments for the implied volatility that the EKG seems to SHOW.
Since it comes to me that way, I have little or no way to adjust the graph before publishing it, and it would be untrue to change it in any way whatsoever.


Jay Strauss said...

Welcome members # 133 Gaby &
134 Naco
glad to have you all aboard
please feel free to add to our discussions.


Abdullah said...

POMO every day until feb 4 (~60 Billion worth). The FED will wiggle us sideways and slightly up. We are so overdue for a pullback , I can't even describe it, yet each time we dip , Bernake comes in and pulls it back up.

Abdullah said...

For those of you who have no clue what POMO is? The Federal Reserve is buying Treasuries outright. Why? Well a million reasons, one such as "no one else wants them, and treasury needs the dollars". In any event, the FED is the lender to the treasury.

They do it by buying treasuries from the 18 primary dealers. Guess who they are? JPM, GS, HSBC, etc..

So the Wall Street bankers get to sell Treasuries to the FED via POMO or permanent open market operations. Those banks then use a percentage of the free money they just got, to go play cowboy in the markets.

This is how the market goes up and up and up in the face of horrid economic news. If it was not or the FED/POMO woe would be down 4000 points already.

Abdullah said...

Welcome back Jay!!!

futures trader said...

I have to agree with Abdullah, your spot on the money.
Everytime the sellers start to get some momentum up the buyers step up to the plate and buy with there eyes closed

rpccharts said...

Remember The Bernanke woks for the large banks.. they are swamped in junk derivatives "marked to 2008" real estate market high values.

The free cash giver to banks bot the lows post crash and they are holding till the top controlled by Ben.

This won't even cover 1/2 the losses from the real estate crash...

Just keep buying till inflation hits 10% +++

Jeff said...

I had thought that the Bond market would have impaired the Fed's antics, but with massive buying of US assets - including Treasuries - by overseas investors, I don't know what could keep this "crap" from floating ever higher. Boy, what we are giving our kids as a legacy!

Abdullah said...

It is not what we inherited, but what we have borrowed from our children. Our children will be paying for this and 60% in taxes.

Jay Strauss said...

Other than the Lack of pictured volatility, the mkt followed the EKG QUITE WELL TODAY

Tomrrow's early EKG indicates a low mid day, and other data leads towards a possible noon pivot@150 bars of 12:30 at 156bars