Feb 13

Todays rally fizzled- didnt I mention that would happen

Tomorrow promisses to be quite bearish

oex -PC ratio yesterday was very bearish = .62, but today was more normal @ 1.43
so what are we to establish from that- out of sync???

Pressure readings have ALL fallen off from early highs corroborating a decline tomorrow
Its also FEB 13th the Bradley LOW, I have mentioned several times.

Gravitational readings are also dropping like a stone

the bar count has not been as consistent as in the past, but I think Im getting a handle on it-
Today was 102 b @ 1pm = a completed 329 from Friday.

Tomorrow is 60B @ 11;30
102 b @ 3pm
That should be the important low

Best Wishes
Jay

Slow start

Expecting a slow start this monday AM.

Pressure & gravitational readings are positive, but wont have much effect for the first part of Feb11th. ~~ 30 bars cycle @ 11am might do the trick.

However, the outcome should be positive for stocks later today and tomorrow FEb12th.

Expecting a high on either the 14 or 15th.

Monday is closed for Pres day, but Im not waiting for the 19th to get short, this time around.

Best Wishes

One day rally

Feb 13 is an expected Bradley low,and after a one day strong rally Monday, they should slide into it.

Friday did well on the nasdaq, but not so well on the dow& spx- thus the confusion;
The bar count lows were each an hour early @ 9:45, then 1:30, and 3pm

The open, as I anticipated, was the actual low with a secondary low @ 1:30pm

Jaywiz index = .28, still somewhat bearish, but the ADv dcl/Vol index dropped from 2.90 to .67 thus indicating an oversold condition. one other index jumped from .44 to 266, also indicating oversold.
yes ;; they are reverse of each other.

Pressure readings will not be available till early Monday AM, to be effective.

Best Wishes
Jay

Feb8

Most of the pressure readings indicate and UP day today

Polarity also jumped to the posotive early this AM;

Looks like a battle of bulls and bears much like yesterday, and it looks like the bulls are going to win again

Theres a 126 bar cycle @ 10am, and if the market makes its lows and holds, then they should move up, but the 2:30 time zone might be a retest.

Still expecting that huge rally Monday

Jay

Pressure readings

Pressure readings for today indicate a low and turn up- Its now 10:30am and thats exactly what we got so far today.

WCA chart for today indicates a high near end of day, but another dive tomorrow till about mid day.

180 bar cycle tomorrow @ 2:30pm might be the low of the day

Monday FEb11 is indicated to be a huge rally day, but little or no follow thru making the 13th the next sell off low, and it is a Bradley low date.

If they dont make new closing lows this week, then the next suspected time period is Feb 19 to 28.

Jay

Closing LOWS ??

Its possible but not likely that today was the closing low of this week.

Theres still a good possible closing lower tomorrow and a intraday lower low on Friday mid day.

Today's 259 bars at 12;30 became the turn rather than the low of the day; this is a rare occurance, but I have mentioned it before.

The Eclipse effect is over tonight so we'll see if they open with a bang tomorrow, but Cisco earnings were not well received after announced.

Jaywiz index on Tuesday was a very strong SELL @ .09

Today's Jaywiz index = .47 and much more bullish.

However, the OEX pc ratio = .62 and was .68 yesterday. this indication is bearish

Friday is 180 bars @ 2;30pm which could turn in the low of the day.

Best for 2008
Jay

Feb6th low

Move that low up to FEb 6th Eclipse day, but thats not the reason why.

yesterdays bar cycles
90 @ 11am
126@ 2:30pm

A low should ocurr tomorrow Feb6th at the 259 bar cycle @ 12;30pm

From there they can rally to the 18th, but it wont be a straight line, of course

Any rebound off tomorrow noon hour low should hit an intial high on the 7th.
8th drops back during the day but should finish ok leaving an openning for a very powerful rally on the 11th.

Best for NOW
Jay

Feb 2nd bradley high

It does appear we got a Bradley high on Jan 31st and the math seems to agree

1576-1276= Spx lost 300 pts
300X 38.2% = 120
1276 + 120 + 1395 bingo
Whats next?
120 x 38.2% = 46
1395-46 = 1349
WHEN?
My bet is On for Feb 13th
however, tomorrow should represent a low and if YOU remember, i was talking about Feb6th open hr, which NOW looks like it should be a LOW from which the eclipse day can rebound, but dont get carried away.

Would love to see it tomorrow, but that would be asking too much.
Jay

Monday Feb4th

In just 30 minutes , they wiped out almost all of Fridays hard fought gains.

By mentioning 126 bars as important today, that inferred a lower trading day today.

90 bars cycle @ 11:30am
126 bars @ 2:30 pm

Polarity turned negative after being positive from jan 12 to Jan 31, even tho the major low ocurred on jan 22/23. During the positive period, there was ONE dip in the middle of the duration right at Jan 23rd., then immediately bounced back to positive. - thus the end of month rally.

Ive found the Polarity Main power lines generally remain either pos or neg for about 13 to 15 days with interim bounces or dips which only last 1 to 3 days looking like a saw tooth.

Still expecting any low set today to be be offset by the first hour high of Feb6th. which in the main stream of events mean nothing other than a good short opp.

Jay

What you cant see or feel

Just like gravity or electricity , there are other forces in nature which cant be seen or felt, but the reality of them is evident in stock market price action.

Today's high +100 hit at 10am where the Sun was parrallel Pluto which is similar to a conjunction.

259 bar cycle at 10:30, and the dow fell to a small minus 3.

What happens now?

So far the rally DEAD and there are 2 more bar counts today
30b @ 1pm
60b @ 3:30

And Monday, more imnportant
126 b @ 2:30pm

Still got first hour high on Feb 6th b4 heading substantially lower

Jay

Market targets

targets may have been reached today

259 bars sometimes indicates a TURN DOWN and we might just get that tomorrow

Bradley date of Feb 3rd, may have occurred today, thus giving those of you who mentioned a down feb 4th will have been right; congrats.

Monday is 126 bars at 2pm,

Jay

Rate cut effect

the rate cut of jan 23rd occurred as the markets were making inmportant cycle lows, and thus the rate SEEMED to have an effect on the market. Actually the market had an effect on the fed inducing them to cut rates.

Now On Jan 30, we hae a double rate cut and the market at first said hooray, but the volume to sustain a rally was lacking and some bullshit story about downgrading some obscure financial institution made the headlines. Man what crap. Volume was the key today.

The market was due to rally and fall with or with out all the rhetoric.

Tomorrow is scheduled to take a further hit and the 259 bar cycles @ 10;30am on Friday.

That should represent a buying opp to get the spx to close at 1380 on or b4 Feb 6th.& Still got
Feb 6th first hr as an important TURN leading to a devastating followthru to retest and or break to new lows on Feb13th.

Best in 2008
Jay

First Qtr 2008

January has given the market its wrost start in 100 years;
What does that mean for the 1st qtr? lets explore

Jan 23rd had a large grouping of short term cycles converging and thus the inital short term low which set lower lows than 2007, and challenged 2006 numbers.

The NEXT most critical time period in the 1st qtr seems to be between March 1st and Arpil11th, but even more specifically March 22nd April11.
A large numbers of LONG TERM CYCLES converge in the time frame, and should setup a serious trading low.

This is not to say that FEb will offer lower numbers, it probably will between FEb6th and 13/15th.

What about the fed rate cuts? you ask . wont that have a positive effect on stocks? YES, but not immediate. It takes time for those cuts to trickle into the actual ecenomy.

Best to all
Jay

Eight day high

So there it is, the Jan 25th, A 52 hr high in the first hour.

I've mentioned Jan 28th and 29th b4, and they are headed for a low. Question at this point is how low?

If only a fibo retrace, then 12,000 would seem right, but if it really turns into a black Monday, then it could take out 12k, and head for 11,750
I have doubts about that, but it is possible.

If the wave structure completes 5 waves down On Monday and Tuesday, then the real 4th wave should have its day thru the open hour of Feb 6th.
From there, they could then proceed to head lower in the 5th of 5th, which astrotrader has projected can occur on Feb20th, the second eclipse


The 8 day cycle started at
jan 2nd first hr high
Jan 11th closing low
jan 25th first hr high
Feb 6th expected first hr high
Feb 18th expected first hr

best in 2008
Jay

4th wave rebound

How high can a 4th wave rebound go.
Is this a 4th wv rebound?

Some are projecting 12,450 to 12,500, and It looks like we might have that in during the 1st hour today. There is an 8 days cycle which does peak in the first hour today.

a 4th wave rebound is very likely.
The poor start that Jan had does not recover in a week, or month, and may even take all year.


A 4th wave would usually occur in 3 waves. If we've got the "a" wave completeing, then" b" should be next. That wave has its rules and can even drop below the 3rd wave low, but not usually. typically it would be at least 50% of the rebound = about 350 dow pts to 12,000 level.
If thats the case, then Tuesday am has the best timing for such.
Still expecting Feb6th eclipse to provide a High.

Jay

Got the rally

259 bars cycled at 1pm today and thus the rebound

Also had positive influences with venus 0 pluto

Some other analysts and myself now consider the rally finished, call it wave 4, now looking for wave 5 obviously

Solar energy is lower for next 2 days and closes friday at its lows.

the next 259 bar cycle hits on Monday @ 2pm.

23rd was called by some for an important low and it certainly was, but unlike August, we are still looking for the 5th wave leg to close at spx 1250 area in the next 3 days.

That would setup the 30th, rate cut day for a huge rally into The FEb 6th Eclipse, and continue to hold and run higher to the lunar eclipse on the 22nd.

Jay

Jan 23rd @ 2:30

the dow but not the nasdaq has re-gained its 325 pt loss

IMO, If the dow doesnt drop to a new closing low today, then Its possible this rebound
<>till the close>, which i doubt. There is a 90 bar cycle at 3;30.

BUT if it does, then I might want to consider this the rally i expected for the open tomorrw.

Jay

Possible low

Jan 23rd is showing a possible low, BUT not THE LOW.
Jan 23rd should close on its lows, or @3;30 where the 90 bar cycle appears to be set.

Jan 24th should open up HUGE, BUT according to the projected solar energy patterns,
IT WONT LAST

Still got a probable low at 11am on the 25th.

And more selling is possible on the 28/29th.

Fed meeting on29/30
Jay

.50 rate cut??

rumors have it for a fed discount rate cut tomorrow- we'llsee, but that does fit the energy pattern that shows a rally at the open.
Make it so, said the captain. That way I can get the best option prices on my puts.

Jaywiz INDEX = .21= MORE SELLING coming
adv decl index at 217 and vol index at 259, both well under 400, Thus a rally should occur, but its only a setup for further declines

Merc retro on 28th
mars direct on 30= take the brakes off and start spending.

Today's armsd index = .92, and in no way can that be considered a buy signal
the Augsut 15th or 16th was a 10.00- now thats a buy signal
I'll let you know when we get something like that.

Jay

As Expected

900 points in one day.

Hope you got to trade it both ways

Should still open higher tomorrow, then slide the rest of the day and week.

The graph above is the MCOS and its in a pennant formation showing a clear break DOWN on Jan 18th.

Add that to the H&S dow formation and we have a market with a big problem.

I was reminded about the 8 days after the Jupiter 120 Saturn- energy from a waning Saturn with the lack of strength from Jupiter.

Jay

Is the Bull dead?

Ive been reminded to look at he 1998 market in comparison to timing this one.
unlke the 2000/2001 market which took 15months, the 1998 deal fell in a few months as this market appears destined to do.

Tuesday's and Wed readings are difficult at best to define.
However, It does look like they are destined to open MUCH lower and continue lower all day till the 329 bar count at 2:30pm.

From there, it is possible, to rebound into the first hour of the 23rd. After which the real panic should start.

Still got he 40-45 day cycle in effect which runs from the 24th to the 29th

Stan Harley has mentioned the 24th quite often as an almost absolute date fro the 40/42 trade day low off Nov 26th and the previous lows in his sequence.

However, that break of the MCOS pennant, plus the waning effect after the Jupiter 120 Saturn seems to make the timing stretch out to the max which is the open on Tuesday Jan 29th till about 10am

We havent seen a market like this since 1998, and thus we are struck because we still expect those incredible rebounds at every dip. This time it will wait till its really over. thats what a head & shoulders pattern does- reverts back to the start, and some have posted charts showing spx values in the 1100 area.

Best Wishes
Jay

DANGEROUS times

Stocks are at the edge of the cliff, and ready to tumble over the edge

It may happen on Tuesday or it could hold off till WEdnesday, but the charts I look at indicate this market is heading lower until at least the 29th as mentioned b4.

Tuesday USA would depend on How Europe behaves at its open, but it matters not as this week appears destined to plunge even further than most woud suspect, leaving the door open to the first January crash in history.

Best Wishes
Jay

Head & Shoulders

The right shoulder topped onDec 10th and has plunged 2000 points from the oct11th top
Oct 10 to Nov 26 = 1350 pts ---Wv1

Dec 10 to JAn 25-28th = How many points- heres some simple Fibo math
1350 X 1.618 = 2200--- Wv3
Dec 10 13,700 - 2200 = 11,500
Thats Puts TIME and price on Jan 25th to 28th @ Dow 11,500

Another analyst on the T&C site provided a different analysis, but came out with the same dates
1728 trading week from 12/1974 = week of Jan 25th
288 weeks from Oct ,2002 = week of Feb 1st

Best Wishes
Jay

HEY HEY, the bull is dead

the 5 year bull appears to have taken on a 25yr correction.
the H&S chart i posted has come to life and is now in full retreat down to the next channel line on the dow as well as the spx.

Are they entitled to a bounce? Quick anwser is Yes, BUT

Sure the numbers are showing GREATLY oversold data, but it doesnt mean an instant rebound.
Especially in a 3rd wave DOWN Leg. WHEN will we get the rally you ask? OK<>

As mentioned b4, there is a 40/45 trade day low approaching next week, and in this environment, that should prove most important. Between the 24th and 29th.

ON an astro level , keeping it simple, and I say that becuse ive seen some people get really elaborate.
Full moon early Tuesday = keep secrets
Venus 0 Pluto early WEd = money regeneration
Merc retro on 28th = coincidental often with turns
mars direct on 30th = Take the brakes off spending

Expectations
Jan 22 = down
Jan 23rd = rebound, but may not make it to the close
Jan 24/25= DOWN
29th might just become the TURN around Tuesday we have come to know and love.
Feb6th ECLIPSE high

the MCOS penant has been broken on the downside, and bodes very badly for stocks in 1st qtr of 2008, even if we do get a short term powerhouse rally.

Some have offered targets down to SPX 1255 area.

Best to all in 2008
Jay

RALLY

All the evidence points to a very strong rebound tomorrow on Friday, jan 18th
heres the stats

Cboe PC ratio = a whopping 1.53
OEX pc ratio = 1.44 *** Bullish
spx 500 pc ratio = 2.37 *** bullish
VIX = 28.46 UP 4.08 today ** Bullish
LOW hit at 3;45 RIGHT on the 259 bar cycle dow low 12,125 -- closed higher @ 12159
Arms index 2.29 bullish
SPX fell 80 points from the high on Monday ** thats usually a maximum or 2 X 40pts
Dow Volume shrank from Thursday
Jaywiz index which gave a .11 reading on WEd was very bearish, but today's = .41* Bullish

Even tho the evidence will give us a rally tomorrow, it appears it will be a one day wonder;
Some evidence is already appearing to show me we will see a lower market next week, starting right from Tuesday, but more on that later. Dont get over excited about tomorrows numbers.

best to all in 2008
its going to get really rough thru the whole first qtr.

beige book

2pm was 180 bars today and the beige book report- from 2pm the dow jumped UP 100 pts

4pm is 204 bars and predicts the dow off the intraday high.

From there, Tomorrow should rocket up to the 18th option day.

Jay

weekly cycle low

Today has the earmark of a 22/44wk cycle low as mentioned b4 and brot to my attention on another site by Jerry Rubenstein.

The solar energy levels indicates possible selling today and also tomorrow.

There are bar count lows due at
60 bars @11am
90 bars @1:30pm
astro hit @ 2:46pm
Market should recover some from there.

Solar energy levels indicate a rally on 17th and 18th.
18th is option expiration and could be quite a positive show of short covering.

22nd appears to be a short term CIT, and might offer a high from which the 40/42 trade day cycle takes over and heads lower into the 24th & 25th.

the JAYWIZ index did score a 19on the 11th and 24 yesterday to indicate more selling as we see today. Its now 11;15 and the dow is off its lows as predicted by the 60 bar count @ 11am;

The 126 bar count hits at 10 am tomorrow after the 8:15 CPI report, so it might concur with a secondary low at that point.

A recovery after that should lead to the rebound on Jan 17 & 18.

best to all in 2008
Jay

Power the dow Up

Now that the SPX settled at a level that showed more power than the dow on Friday, the proof of the Jan 11th low is now evident at the dow is now UP 120 pts at this writing @ 10:30am.

One other indicator that I developped from my data collection show a rise from
Dec 4th @ .40
Dec 26 @ 1.20
Jan 11 @ .66
thus confirming the current move Up after Friday Jan 11th

Jan 11th was also 52 hours, - 8 trade days from the OPEN of Jan 2nd .
the next 8 trade day point is Jan 24- keep inmnd that the 21st is a trading holiday.

As for this week, the POLARITY index jumed to Positive on the 13th after being in the Negative for the previous 8 days.

Looing for a trading high this week onWed, and again on Friday morning.
Friday could begin the selloff into the 24th/25th where there is a 40/42 trade day low due off the previous low of Nov 26th.

Best to all for 2008
Jay

Jan11th still a low

Ive still got Jan 11th as a spring board closing low to a short term high on Feb6th.

3 day rally next week into the 16th/17th with a drop off on the 18th but nothing very severe.

2 days of rally attempts this week were only rebounds within a decline phase of possible wave 1 or an A wave.

Jay

Jan 11th

From a low on Jan 11th, the market should rebound into Feb 6th.
And it should be one heck of a rebound

However, some technicians have been posting spx getting to 1255/1275 on the 11th

This target has already begun even tho most of my techindicators are oversold right NOW, they will get more so by Friday.

I was thinking Monday Jan 14th, but the EVIDENCE is mounting toward a Jan 11th LOW
It should be the first stopping point off a WEAK right shoulder as pointed out in the previous post.

If the spx gets to 1275, the dow equal is about 11,750, which is the yr 2000 all time high.
Such a test does portend much lower levels later in the year. Maybe march 24th?

But for NOW, get ready to BUY the low this Friday
For what it worth, CNBC is beating up CFC- Countrywide financial which has fallen from $25 to 2.50 -- YOU be the judge, is it time to buy it??

Best to all for 2008
Comments welcome
let me know if Im doing better, and if YOUR doing better .
Jay

Dow high on Feb 1st is BUSTED

Heres a chart that will blow you away

In case you didn't notice-

The premise for dow 14,300 on FEB 1st is BUSTED

Some one hasnt been paying attention

It now looks like we will get to 12,000 by Friday

First week in Jan down 565 pts - first time in 100 years- WOW

A closing low on the 14th and intraday low on the 15th should set the stage for A HUGE REBOUND, but I doubt sincerely they will get all the way back to 14K within 3 weeks.

However, one thing I wish to point out

Take a look at Jan/Feb 2000, and I did mention this b4.

IN YEAR 2000

Jan 14th was the all time high

Feb 5th was a dive low

then by march 24th, they made another new high, in the spx at least, not the dow.

WE are therefore expecting JUST the REVERSE for 2008.

Best Wishes

Jay

Head & Shoulders

This chart was posted on another site, but since its just a pic of the dow, Im sure the presenter wont mind if I use it to show point

This Head & Shoulders formation DOESNT occur very often and since its so rare, I wanted to show it so YOU can take advantage of it also.

The lower channel line the dow is sitting at is 12,800 which was Jan 4th close

The next level in such a formation would be the next level lower at dow 12,000

Is such cases, these events occur very quickly, and since the first week of Jan was off 565dow pts, it represnets the worst openning week in 100 yrs. Whats that mean ? You ask.= TROUBLE

Ive mentioned the 9 month and 22/44wk cycle OFF last March 14, previously, and it strikes on Jan 14th. There is also a hard aspect astro cluster this weekend.

Everything POINTS to a severe SELL off this week probably starting on the 10th.

Gravitational levels are at 500 today, and same for tomorrow, then drops to 400 thru Friday.

The Arms index of 4.09 on last Friday might usually be viewed as an exhaustion LOW, but since it ocurred when it did, and taking all the other factors into account, then it actually portends severe danger just ahead.

Interesting dates of the H&S

July 16 High-------Oct 10 high ------- Dec 10th high

Aug 16 low -------Nov 12 low ------- Dec 17 low ----- Now expecting Jan 14/15 lows

Best to All, & comments welcome

Jay

Recession

Now that SOMEONE recognizes were in a recession, OIL prices tumble
If thats what it takes to get lower gas prices, we will take recession over ??
What the heck have we on the street been experiencing for 3 years - Its called Recsssion.
BUT NOW its recognized- do you get my satire ??

Friday's low at 4pm was 180 bar cycle, not 3pm
Thus we advanced Monday's times up accordingly

204 bars cycled at 10:40am
60 bars cycled @ 3:40pm, thus the closing rally

Whats that mean for tomorrow's hot spots?
90 bars @ 11:15
126 bars @ 2:15

Gravitational forces looks like a continuation of the trend all week
Tomorrow COULD start out on the UPSIDE, but it will probably be less short lived than today's open and NO recovery until at least 2:15, if any then either.

Jaywiz Index = .35, Not very bearish, but certainly NOT bullish.

It would appear that any rallies intraday this week are fated to fail as the bigger cycle may be due on Jan 15th. Now that the Dec 17th LOW of spx1445 has been broken, a lower low is next and that means the next 9 month cycle low should be even lower.

Next break is under the Nov 26th low of spx 1407
March 22nd has been pointed out as the Armstrong cycle LOW of the 1st qtr of 2008.
Add 9 months = Dec 2008, or possibly November if we cut off one month for the one that was added to Dec to get to Jan.

Best to all
Jay

93% DOWN Volume

180 bars cycle @3pm was near the low of the day.

Midnite Low tide is the 6th
Lunar cycle shows a BIG rise due NOW

gravitational levels for Friday ended up at a LOW under 300, but was identified as 500 in error
Grav effects made a VERY DRAMATIC change TODAY

5th jumps up to 600
6th up to 650
7th still higher yet to 700, BUT for ONLY PART of the day
8th drops back down to 400
9th = 400
10th even lower to 350
evidently a huge solar flare has transmitted energy to us on earth?
BUT its not a lasting event??

Heres some other data to indicate a potential HUGE rally part of Monday
Friday
93% DOWN VOLUME
Arms ONE day index = 4.09
this also raises the levels of some of the technical indexes to rather high levels, BUT the grav info above negates a solid BUY for now.
New moon early Tuesday AM

JAYWIZ INDEX = .12 on top of the .25 from Thursday- BOTh indicating further selling, and the 10 day ave dropped to 34.1

Best Wishes
Jay

Jan 4th

today's action sets up a short term rebound for the next 2 days

gravitational levels for tomorrow are higher @500
Monday moves even higher to 700
Tuesday and Wed both drop to 425

There is the matter of getting by the 22/44wk cycles low as mentioned b4 and pointed out by another analyst
which occurs the week of Jan 14th to 18th

Feb 6 is still looking strong for a possible new high

Best Wishes
Jay

IT's 2008

Dec 27th went as expected
Dec 31st went as expected
Jan 2nd went as expected

Whats expected for Jan3rd?

As previously written - it should also be a down day
However, we are getting very close to a BUY which should arrive on tomorrow's close

Heres some stats

Jaywiz Adv/Decl index = 396 & just under the 400 threshold
Jaywiz Volume Index = 307 & well under the 400 level
both of theses are ALERTS to a change in trend within a day or 2.

Jaywiz NEW Index = 48 & close to a buy, should be over 50 for a real buy - cant wait to see what tomorrows index is. should register a solid buy.
The 10 day average is now at 42.6, and on DEc 18th low it was 37
its range has been from 31 to 68. so 50 is mid range.

5 day ARMS index = 160.6 & is a very strong buy
5 day trin = 803 and is also registering a buy
10 trin = 126.5 ------- Ditto


Gravitational level today was a low 300
Jan 3 = same
Jan 4th starts to rise and over the wkend runs up to 600
Monday, Jan 7= 500
Tuesday, Jan 8 = 400

It seems to indicate some possible backing off, but not too serious. The reading is 7 days out and not as reliable as the 4 or 5 day, so updates will be noted.

OEX pc ratio = .90 more on the sell side under 1.00
CBOE pc rati0 = 1.15 & neutral but leaning toward a buy
SPX 500 pc ratio = 2.03 leaning toward a buy
Gold has been running UP every down day on the dow, maybe made a short term high?

180 bars cycle @ 10.30 hit at 10:20
204 bar cycle @ 12:30 was exact
30 bars later = 3pm, a minor dip.

SPX might seek the 2006 HIGH of 1431.82
Market fell AFTER the 2pm FED minutes

90 bars should cycle @ 1:30pm tomorrow &
126 bar cycle @4pm, which is actually 120 bars, buts that allowed.

Expect the market to rally FRIDAY from the open as the jobs report is at 8:30am

Comments welcome
Jay

Jan 2000 verses 2008

Its possible they might follow an exact opposite course to Jan 2000

Jan 2000 had a high on the 14th, and we are looking for a low.

Feb 2000, had an extreme low on the Feb5th Eclipse and we are looking for a High on the Feb6th Eclipse this year 2008.

There are some analysts on other sites who are predicting Gann squares of 9, and are expecting a high on FEb 1st of dow 14,300, as is Charles Nenner from what i've been reading today.

This extra info fits well with what IVE BEEN TELLING YOU the past few postings. This is also to let you know that I DO MY OWN work, and here is info from other sources confirming my work.

Best Wishes
Happy new year 2008
Jay

OPENS down

When 90 bars hits at or near a close, it usually hits at the open the next day and today was no exception.

Today also has 126 bars at 12:30

adding 30 bars = 3pm, which may or may not have any effect

However, that leaves 180 bars at 10:30 on Wed
I was expecting WEd to open UP, but it will probably be very short lived rally, and the downtrend should continue thru the 3rd.

126 bars hits at 10AM on Friday AM, which in this case I suspect the actual low at 120 bars or a truncated 126 at 4pm on WED

The JOBS report on friday at 8:30am will probably propel the market higher, and at this point, I dont have a definitive read on the whole day yet.

BUT Monday Jan 7thy does have the look of making a trading low with a rebound to follow thrut he 11th.

Best Wishes
Jay

Christmas rally is over

Some of my work indicates the rallies are done till at least the morning of jan 4th, and possibly the 7th.

Could be down to spx1400 again or this time to spx1370

today had 30 bars low at 11am- yes
60 bars low at 1;30pm
NOw heres the tricky part.
90 bars hits at 4pm, OR it could wait for Monday's open.
Jay

Polarity

Im sure you can tell by the futures there will be an up open today and Polarity confirms an UPDAY
As I previously wrote for Friday Dec 28th.

Best Wishes
Jay

I cant believe the Media thinks Yesterdays decline was base on an assassination in another country no less.
Yes, I can grieve for the loss personally, but the market does not care about personal feelings. Its about time someone gave the media a tongue lashing concerning NEWS and market direction. News does NOT make the market. What comes first the chicken or the egg ?
And they are still talking about it today as if the market would drop if some one else got hurt???

January 2008

Heres my dates for jan 2008

Dec 27th in progress at 1pm the dow is - 158
there is 180 bars at 1pm, and 204 at 3pm.

Dec 28th is an upday
Dec 31st should close lower after a positive start
Jan 2nd and 3rd look substantially DOWN

Jan 4th = up
Jan7th might be an off day
however, from here to the 11th looks UP

It is possible Jan could start to deteriorate from the 14th to the 23rd and or 28th before turning up to greet the eclispe of Feb 6th as that looks like a powerful harmonic cluster.

Best Wishes
Jay

Proprietary data

As some of you already know, I keep track of Arms data daily.

With that I have devised my own indeces for which I have 4 to5 yrs of daily data

Yesterday I experimented with turning it into a precentage by simply dividing adv/decl by the vol ratio, and got fascinating results.
The ratio resulted in highs of 1.20% to a low at .04%

In yr 2007:
Feb = 1.09% at dow 12550
March 7th = .41% at dow 12192

May = .99 @13363
June 7-12= .44% @ dow 13295
But more important the index = 101% on June19th @ 14000

On 9/17 it dropped to .04% as the dow hit 13,400
BUT again more inportant hit 111% at dow 14,000 on oct 10th.

Nov 12 = .39%
Nov 20 = 1.12%
Dec4 = .38%
NOw near 100% indicating a HIGH in the making

Ive also turned the daily JAYWIZ INDEX into a 10 day ave, now that I have enuf data.
yesterdays daily index = 33, and when computed , the 10day ave is now@ 38.7
Not a raging SELL, but no where near a buy which would have to be well above 60.

I previously noted the POLARITY indicator did DROP dramatically at 5am today or was at least update to show it that way. I did notice late yesterday that the magnometer started to decline after market hours so that change was not unexpected to me at least, and it was a great confirmation to watch that happen.

Best Wishes
Jay

SELL off in 1st qtr

Some of my associates on another site are indicating a sell off in the 1st qtr of 2008.

Mar22 has been indicated with some interest as important

Feb 6th eclipse is 8 yrs after the Feb 5th eclipse of 2000

Polarity dropped at 1200 UTC time which as best I can determine was 4 hours ago at 5am.

And the spoos are showing a sell off at the open.

I was under the impression, that a sell off this week would setup a rally in the first week thru jan7th, but that doesnt seem to fit as we are making rebound highs this week.

Jan 14th seems to be a cluster of 22 and 44 wk cycles as presented by another anaylyst.
March 22 is an Armstrong cycle hit, and is being presented as a low.

I dont know, and dont think I would buy todays low as there would only be 2 days into the 31st for a rebound; It could be a spike high/top.

Best Wishes
Jay

Polarity

Polarity is the value of positive or negative ions from the sun reaching the earth.


Yesterday's dip in the polarity did not last long as it ran back up on the 26th.

Usually in astro, one looks for conjunctions to be positive and oppositions to be negative, but depending on when and where they occur, it could be opposite, as it was in Dec

Dec 11th had the first clue when the dow fell 300 pts
The next week was held down by multiple conjunctions

The suspected lows due this week were circumvented by the oppositions which showed teh dow as a high for teh day today at 3pm.

The 27th is due for a cycle low, and there is a gap in the energy levels as I reported data last week.
Tomorrows levels are in the 300 range, quite low as a high range is 600 to 800, and lows are under 400.

If all goes accordingly, we should see a fairly hard sell off tomorrow, but the 28th looks positive AND Jan 2nd hold the key to end the rally as Mars is 180 pluto at 4:25pm

CAUTION flag is out-- There are some who are calling Jan as a declining month thru at least the 15th, and maybe till the end of the month. I'm still waiting more data.

take a look at the charts and graphs on WCA, if you can figure them out.

Best Wishes
Jay

new discovery

Just when you think youve got it all, something ive been ignoring just popped up as maybe very important

Polarity shows me some very intersting market movement

Oct 10 to oct 20, polarity was negative- mkt low on 19th
Oct 20 to oct 31 polarity was positive mkt high on 31st
and so forth

NOw it shows polarity fell yesterday sharply, and maybe if the market has been open all day it might have had some effect, but for now we wait for the 26th,27th.

polarity shows its overall effects are STILL positive thru the 30th then there's an overlap thru the 31st, so a sharp rebound as inticipated by other means should still be working

A similar overlap ocurred 12/6 to 12/10, then fell on 12/11 and stayed low till 12/17 to conform with a negative polarity

Best Wishes
Happy New year
Jay

Proprietary data

My proprietary systems provide certain data which I will share with you, but not where it comes from.



My adv/decl ratio & volume ratio are derived from the daily arms index
Monday's data = 236 & 228
Tuesday =397& 401
Wed = 345 & 356

Note: Historical data goes back 4 years

UNDER 400 = BUY signal3 days in a row and we got Friday's rally
Friday's values = 688 & 914 comfortably above 400

friday = Winter solstice & Bradley pivot date



5 days arms index Friday = 88.8 a sell signal down from 137.8, a buy from the 14th
5 day trin = 444, a sell signal , down from 6.89


Midnite low tide and full moon High tonight Dec 23rd.



Jaywiz index

Monday= 38
38 neutral
38
84 buy
33 neutral
29 borders on sell



Daily lunar index = - 5 on Dec 28th, lowest value in 30 day series 5 days after full moon
5- 10 - 20 wk cycles clustering next week.


Specific gravity energy levels

Dec 17 = 350
18 = 700
19 = 550
20 = 650
21 =700
Dec24 = 500
25 = 400
26 = 300
Dec27 = 300

Dec28th changes up to 500
thats as far out as it can be recorded

Major celestial event of early 2008 is the Feb 6th eclipse which should find the spx trading near 1600.

But for now we see a short term dip next week
making the 28th a BUY date,
with CIT dates :
Jan 2 hi
3rd down
11th High
15th low
24th high
29th off day
Feb 6th peak

Best Wishes

Jay

BULLETIN

NEW update indicates today and tomorrow as a HIGH
and change in trend to a serious sell off next week
Bradley date is Dec 22nd
After today's closing high, tomorrow should just float along

NYSE - Monday closing at 1pm

Serious selling should hit the market next week possibly ending on the 27th

28th opens a positive window of opportunity

Best Wishes

Rally time ?

the numbers seem to be pointing toward a rally tomorrow as previously indicated

Vol ratio = 345, now under 400 for 3 days in a row
Adv/Decl ratio = 356 Ditto

Jaywiz Index = 84 WOW thats a BUY
was under 30 all last week and had 2 last days at 38 level

180 bars hit at 11:30
204 bars hit at 1:30

Jupiter goes 0 Capricorn tomorrow
Winter Solstice on 21st
Best Wises
Jay


Gold / Xau ratio at a short term high = 4.98 indicating a SELL OFF

You wont want to miss this graph

www.swpc.noaa.gov/SolarCycle/

fascinating

Jay

Illusive rally?

OK, Now that Dec 17th is over where is that rally you promised?

Heres some things I'm looking at, and they are telling me to look for a strong rally the next 2 days, including financials. Typically a 40 pt SPX move = 300 dow points.
That would take the SPX back up to resistance at 1490 area.

reading for today = energies dissipate- they sure did that
Better later, and so far it looks like the noon to 1pm lows at 126 bars may have done the job, but its only 2pm as I write this.

Magnetic energy pattern indicates a higher day today, but more important, a much higher run the next 2 days.

That projection is also supported by my tech data
MY Vol ratio = 236
My adv/Decl ratio = 228
both are well under the 400 threshold that indicates a rally is about to happen.
5 day ARMS = 137.5= bullish
5 day trin = 689 = bullish
10 trin day = 1122 = bullish
8 day IAN cycle may have hit also at noon
10 day Curry cycle today
My Jaywiz index was a 43 yesterday and is neutral, but does indicate a change.
Still working off the 9 months cycle low
Seasonality for second half of Dec is UP.

Anyway, the energy for the next 2 days runs HIGH with Merc 0 Pluto
Merc 0 jupiter & Sun 0 Pluto on Thursday, after which thing might spin out of control.
And we might just see a repeat of Dec 11th on the 21st and the 24th which are both harboring negative energy.

I will add to this If I think of anything else.

Best Wishes
Jay

Cycle Low ??

other technicians have mentioned this
Friday,and or today is 9 months from March 14th low in a continuous 9 month cycle

1444 spx was also posted as important

Seasonality shows a rally from about here

Energy patterns show a rally starting tomorrow and continuing at least thru Wed, and might drop off little later this week.

Rimm, google and bidu all took large hits today, Finally.


Best Wishes
Jay

Monday's indications

Monday's projections are coming in with mixed signals
I have PREVIOUSLY indicated a roller coster ride for Monday
If they open strongly till about 10:27 am , then the roller coaster ride could take it lower for the day.

If they open weak, then it might be considered a buy opp.

However, I do agree with charts edge about the balance of the week going up, and that has been already projected prior to seeing their charts.

I am also in agreement as previously indicated with a Jan 2nd high, and Jan 7th low with a rising trend
from there to the end of of jan 2008.
Possible minor interruptions on the 14th and 15th on the way up.

Best Wishes
Jay

Change in trend

That Un named index I have been recording will now be called the

"Jaywiz index"
Friday = .43- indicates neutral, and possible change of direction

Jaywiz index history last week
Thursday = .26
Wed= .20
Tues = .29
Mon = .19
All were decidedly bearish

However, Alone, the Jaywiz Index does not guarantee a rally

Energy patterns for Monday do show a possible battle between the bull and bears
WE should get a large opening rally followed by fall back, and hopefully a closing rally leading to further gains on Tuesday and Wed.
Tuesday could start out reverse of Monday with an opening decline, but up later into the weeks high on Wed.

Declines are expected on 21/24, but a year end rally on 26th to Jan 2nd should close out the year strong for the bulls

Jan 2008 is expected to start out weak from the 2nd to the 7th, but should rally from there to month's end.

Nothing dramatic is anticipated for 2008.
Mostly higher to at least spx1600, and possibly even 1699
The Low of the year is not expected till Early Nov.

Best Wishes,
Jay

Lower lows

Markets were called lower into Dec 14th ,Friday, and the open hit at 180 bars for an open low, and 259 bars at the close, also a bar cycle LOW point.

Did not break under 1460 spx, but did break one support level of 13,327

Pressure readings for next week indicate and UP week
and dont forget its options next week.

Monday should open UP with a THRUST, but could turn into a roller coaster ride.

Continues higher thru Wed or Thursday at the latest before turning down on the 21st and 24th

Best Wishes
Jay

LOWER again

Wild ride Tuesday and Wed - but you already knew that

I was nervous about holding onto my puts, banks and financials, but the premarket trading indicates them lower & the spx futures.

That un- named ratio scored another bearish .20 yesterday and thus the downtrend confirmed.

Lower lows on Thursday and Friday

Rocket rebound on Monday DEc17th into Tuesday ,18th of next week.

Decline should resume on WEd Dec 19th and hit a trading low on the 24th.

Rocket rally on 26th to jan 7th.

Best Wishes
Jay

I hope I didnt lose many of you over the past few months.
I think Im back on track
Let me kknow If ive been helpful.- send me an email

Rate cut

The expected .50 bp rate cut did not materialize, and thus the 2pm bar count @ 204 turned in a CHANGE rather then a low.
Also the Jupiter 0 Pluto that seems to have been the driving force for the dow advance last week ocurred at the same moment.

Today's open as indicated by the futures should explode up at least 100 dow points or more, BUT do beware, IT wont last long.

Energy patterns show an open rally should falter and drop to a Friday low.

It would NOW appear the trend is biased lower thru the 24th and then the yr end rally lasting to about Jan 10th.

Best Wishes
Jay

Fed Day

Cycles still call for a higher high today and tomorrow;

Dec 13 & 14 should take some away

Dec17th showing me another rally day;

From there, as I wrote b4, it should get sloppy and choppy with a down bias thru the 24th, then a yr end rally.

Jay

cycles

We seem to be locked into an 8 day or 52 hour cycle;
Oct9
oct19
oct31
nov12
nov 26 was 9 days due to the 1/2 day on the 23rd.
Dec 6th
Dec 18
Dec 31
jan11- 2008
jan 23
Any one catch Charles Nenner interview on CNBC;
I have claimed many times, the markets are NOT controlled by the news, and yet there are so many newcomers in the last 5 years who swear by the newsmaking the market- WELL a rally or decline would have ocurred anyway with or without the news, and thus a .50 bp rate cut will give the players a reason to see a rally, its not what actually made teh rally happen, IT WOULD HAVE HAPPENNED ANYWAY.

When the market goes UP 300 points, everyone goes home happy nd doesnt question why.
when the mkt drops 300 pts, EVERYONE want to know WHY, WHY WHY.

OK, enuf preaching, lets move on.
Jupiter 0 Pluto is a very powerful force indicating a rare transformation.
Dec 17 has MERC 0 Sun and should top out the market thru xmas.
Year end rally should carry till Jan 2nd and maybe reach a secondary high on the 11th before treading water till months end.
according to Nenner, Feb and March could be 10% to 15% DOWN again.
He also mentioned multiple 10% swings next year.

I have found a PC ratio that does seem very sensitive to identify when a rally is going to occur.
It appears the LOWER the ratio, the higher the chance for a decline the next day, and vice versa.
I only have a few weeks data, so more study is required.

Monday and Tuesday have been called for unusual downside bias by one associate uisng his propietary methods and he has been 80% accurate with his calls.

I guess the mrkt wants to shake out the weak players before running it up the flagpole to the 18th.

best wishes
Jay

December dates

Dec 3rd should start down, and if not them the 4th for sure.

the 5th and most especially the 6th should be quite bearish


After an UP open on the 10th we can expect the balance of the day and most of the 11th to be lower.

From there a high on the 18th could stop for a couple days, and will probably get choppy and sideways till year end.

Still expecting a very strong surge from the 11th to 19th.

Best Wishes
Jay

5th wave

A 5th wave can be sudden or drag out for days, and week.

This one loooks like it will be a short one, and probalby wont pick up steam till DEc 4th.

Today was near perfect
spx hit 1489, just below the 1490 level of the low of wave 1.
11am was called for the high but the high petered out in the first 30 minutes, and the 11am was only a weak attempt.

Low hit at 90 bars at 3:00 PM.
Nothing has changed as far as Dec 11th, still going to be a monster rally starting from there.

Best Wishes

Wave 4 DONE

From July 16 on the SPX, I can count Aug 16 as the low of Wave "A"
Count Oct 11 as an iregular "B" wave higher than July 16th
That means wave "C" has got to end lower than wave B, or dow 12,500 and spx 1374

When ?
Since we got the expected 4th wave this week instead of next week, then wave 5 of the current "C" has got to start Tomorrow after about 11am.

The low is still expected to be Dec 6th, and or 10th.
Get ready to buy the 11th, and the FEd, if a 2 day meeting will cut rates by a MINIMUM of .50bp.
On Dec 18th of 1992, the fed unexpectedly cut rates by a FULL POINT, and the market blew away.
Will Mr B do that now? just a guess, but whatever it is will be well received.
Jay

show us the $$

Now that the wv 4 of 3 of "C" is out of the way we can now watch, and or short the V of 3 of "C

Next 2 days, again contrary to charts edge should take the spx under 1400.
Some targets have been proposed by others as 1352 to 1328.

Theres not much time left between now and DEc 10th for the final low of the correction from Oct 11th high, so the sell off must show its force starting now.

After the LOW this Friday, they should get a strong rebound next week to the 4th or 5th,.
That would be wv 4 of "C", then looking of course for 5 of "C"

IF your a bull, then hold onto your cash and get ready for one hell of a rally on DEc 11th which should carry thru to at least mid Jan 08. and thats just for starters.

Best Wishes
Jay

Flowing downhill

banking, mortgage& financial news keeps getting worse

Today's pc ratios seem like they tehnically could start out on the upside tommorw, but the influences are pointed down all week.

WE could see a down open, and higher close tomorrow- Tuesday Nov 27th, leading to an UP open on the 28th, but from there , IN OPPOSITION to charts edge, Im still looking for a good tradeable LOW on Friday near the close.

180 bars did count at 3;30 pm today, but was later broken, and thus we will look for the 204 bar count at 10:30/11am Tuesday for a possilbe short term trading low.

Best Wishes
Jay

Full Moons

Full moons do tend to SKEW that market into an upside mode.

Resistence today at 1442, and was hit a few mnutes ago 12:30 pm

Monday does have some potential to sell off at least until noon to 1pm

Could then rebound at the close and make another little high on Tuesday AM.

The WAVE looks like an a-b-c- X on 13th
start another series down = a on Nov 22, now looking for b thru Tues AM, then c 28th thru Nov 30.
THATS STILL not the end of the decline.
DEC 10th is the end.
Jay

trading lower

Regardless of any rally today which may or may not stand up for the day, we can still expect a rally on Monday.
MY STRATEGY

If the market fails to hold today, then I will be selling my puts at the close, and rebuying them late Monday or early Tuesday

IF not, then I am still holding them as I am still expecting another sell off or continuation of it in the "C" wave to a NOv30th LOW.

Best Wishes
Jay

Sell off about to accelerate

Friday should sell off and set a new low for this move.

Any puts you own should be closed out at 1pm.

Monday should open with a spurt, but should fizzle later

Tuesday should do just the opposite

WEd to friday stand a very good chance of making a CLIMACTIC sell off to finish the decline on Nov 30.

Anyone waiting in the wings with cash, just hold on a couple weeks till Dec 10th, then sell the farm and buy stocks, calls, etf's whatever you want. I can assure you that BANK stocks will SCREAM, as will just about everything else.

This yr the bears got the turkey and the bulls get Xmas.
Best Wishes
Jay


PS- Editing biz letters or any other written communicationscan be improved dramatically with the right editing.
Email me with any requests.

LAST 10 minutes

yesterday's close dropped off in the last 10 minutes- WHY

Today has a 204 bar count at 10am, and UNLIKE yesterday where the 126 bar count hit at 4pm on Monday, the day b4, this time it alternated and will hit at 10am.

From there, they should recover till at least 1pm.

A lower close is indicated today.

90 bars count at 11am on Friday, and 120-126 near the close at 1pm.

to get a good look at the real wave count, look at JPM, and or BAC.

Jay

BTW, anyone who needs a biz letter or other document edited, please email me.
Its just one of the other things I do for income.

17 yr High

I mentioned this b4, but look at the 17 yr cycle from oct11, 1990
5 yr Cycle from oct 2002.
After a 150 pt high, the dow dropped to -110 at 2:30 pm.
RIGHT ON 180 bars at 2:30pm, and sold all my puts.

Tomorrow has the opp to run up about 20 spx points, but friday STIll showing some severe selling could develop even tho its only a half day, and most institutional traders will be off.
I will be buying puts at 1;30pm and or the close.

Friday can take it all away and send the markets in a tail spin.

Most important date this month will be NOV 30th.

Most important date in Dec will be the 10/11th.

Best Wsihes
Jay

Nov 2007

Next week should complete minuette wave 3 of minute wave "C", and make a new low to about the 12,500 area. most likely on friday.

Still got a short term low on Tuesday, with a rebound on Wed.

Minuette wave 4 would rebound from possibly the 26th to DEC 5th with a dip on 28/29th as an intervening "b" .

Keep in mind however, the 23rd is a half day, and is wrot with negative influences & closes out at the 126 bar count

Best Wishes
Jay

Elliott wave counting

A decline can also take the form of 5 waves as this one appears to be doing.

Thus a 3rd wave can SPIKE DOWN and be devastating within that trend.
So far we have a wave 1 down off oct31 and a possilbe wave 2 either done or still in progress. Once completed, there is WAVE 3. Which can break down into 5 waves also.

Last week hit the 12th for a low as I described.
The 14th by some was supposed to be a lower low, but it obviously turned in a possible HIGH this week, unless Monday starts out on a strong note.

Heres my outlook for the balance of November
Monday Could start out positive, but even if it does, It should close down, and IF it starts down, it should be quuite severe, followed by an equal down on Tuesday.

WEd should POP UP and probably make it to the close.

Thursday, gobble gobble, and enjoy that turkey with all the trimmings.

Friday, Nov 23rd, looks like another severe selling day, but it closes at 1pm.
Coincidentally, there is a 126 bar count at 1:30, and thus 1pm falls within its influence.

The weekend of the 24th has some severe influences which should have its effect on trading on the 23rd.

A 10 day cycle is due on the 26th, but IMO, it will occur on the 23rd due to those influences as mentioned.

26 to 28th is indicated as UP
29 and 30th are expected to be DOWn days
Oct 31st.
8 TRADE day low = NOV 12th
4 day high = Nov 16th
next 4&8 day low = Nov 23
8 day high = Dec5
4 day = Dec 11
8 day = Dec 17
21 st
28 th.

As I've mentioned b4, DEc 11th should be a very important date ,a nd could be the low of 2007.
Bank stocks are getting killed.

Best Wishes

Jay

NOv 14th

Nov 14th was posted by a number of analysts as a very important date.

Many of them thought it would be a low, but it now appears it may have been an important high.

On well known analsyt has written about the importance of a NOV 22nd date, which IMO, looks like it could be an important low, if not also the 23rd.

Tommorow should open higher regardless of today, but will porbabley NOT hold up after mid day.

That means the 19th could be the straw that breaks the camels back.

Some Elliott technicians have viewed the action since oct 31st as wave 1 and 2.

For those who dont know what that means= WAVE 3 is the ultimate spike, and in the case of the present, that could be devastating to stock prices.

Best Wishes
Jay

8 day cycles

Oct 9th high - closing values
oct19 low
oct31 high
Nov 12 may hold next low and challenge of 12,850
Some of my associates prefer oct15th, and that could b possible, but more likely Tomrrow or the open of the 13th.
Then what??
Friday Nov 16 holds out he best bet for a strong ONE DAY rally
However, the NEXT 8 day cycle indicates a turning point high on NOV 23rd, leaving out the 22nd which is T day.

From an Elliott view, it would appear we are FINALLY making a real correction in which the lows will more than test Aug 16th at 12,500. Theyve already take out 1000 points in just 30 calendar days. BUT whats more remarkeable is HOW BULLISH sentiment is. After 5 yrs, theyve conditioned all of us to think bullish.

Go back to Oct/2002/march 2003, and dow around 7500
IF STILL in a bull market TREND thru 2010 which is still my guess for now until proven otherwise, we should see a market correction of at least 38.2% =about 2700 pts

When will that happen? IMO, Could take as long as next NOV before hitting such a low- others are claiming a PEI relationship to previous important dates ending on March 22 of 2008.

The MOST important NEAR TERM date IMO is DEC 11th.
In 1994, Jupiter and Pluto conjucntion ACTUALLY started the whole rally from about 4500 level to the first big target at 11,725 in yr 2000. THAT conjunction ocurrs again this yr on DEC 11th.
An important inflection point, and maybe a short term bottom with DEC 22nd as a retest.

Best Wishes
Jay

Its NOW or Never

There is an analyst using whats called the Hindenburg omen, and he claims there has been a cluster of hit within the last month, which is required as just one hit is just not enuf.

OEX pc ratio = 1.25 just moderate
CBOE pc ratio = .98 ditto
SPX 500 ratio = 1.47 Ditto
VIX ratio which was .67 yesterday today is .20- overwhelming calls over puts= contrary is bearish

WCA graph shows marekt down next 2 days

MY Gravity indicator is on a sell

Dollar getting as low as it can get, according to one analyst, almost at bottom.

Monday's low hit at 126 bars at 2.00 to 2:30

extending the count to Thursday close would be 180 bars OR Friday's open.

IF all goes according to plan, get ready to BUY the friday open low, and dont look back till at least the 23rd.

Best Wishes
Jay

Market expectations

The Market has come to expect rallies after every large hit;

Feb fooled around a little, and then recovered.

August dropped and recovered


Oct 11th dropped after and recovered

SO WHY NOT NOW ??
just got a rate cut to boot

Why the market wont rally so fast- Because they expect it to.
But thats not the real reason
Support levels are at 1496 spx which was touched
Once broken, then look to 1470 - 1460

Many of my associates have mentioned that level
some are thinkng 1455, but maybe or not.

Best Wisahes
Jay

More to go

My internal indicators are telling me theres moreof today still coming

I had mentioned a negative bias thru the 6th after the fed rate cut.

Today;s ARMS index was only 2.80, not a romping 5.00 or more.


My Propietary volume and Adv deline index is at 786, and 1129; leaving PLENTY of ROOM to get under 400, where those levels have NEVER failed to indicate a rally.

and the 5 day arms is only at 6.26, and no where near enuf to scream BUY.

The futures did close down substantialy

today's bar hits were right on target126 at the open = 10am
180 at 2pm
204 at the close

Tomorrow's bar hits
259 at 2pm
might be the low of the day

There seems to be an 8.6 day cycle in play which did occur at 3pm on WEd
the next 8.6 trade cycle = Nov 13, my Bday, hmmm.
Somtimes cycle shift, and if it extends to the 16th, it could become a 10 day or 68 hr cyle which ive tracked b4 from time to time.
Since the 16th is OPTIONS, and there are no negative influences to stop it, it might just do that.

Jay