shades of the past

Be it 1987 or 1929

NOV 2nd follows a STRONG DOWN FRIDAY which has a large percentage of follow thru
on Mondays

FLASH rouge wave does NOT mean RALLY

Break under 9700 has a gap between there and 8400

Gunther's comments has it right- Friday's BIG RED candle will be
followed by a further decline, and lower on open next day (TUESDAY) for TURN

NOV 2nd = 233 FIBO trade days from DEC 1st, 2008 & dow was off 680 pts

more later
Jay

Bullish or Not?

Still got the same question

TO THE MOON ??? IMO, NOT here at this point

NO BUY signals were generated by the internals
MY Proprietary Vol & Adv Dec indexes did get to oversold - both under 400 for 2 days
thus the rally today, and my 10;30 dip was very minor- but it was there
so the call to be BULLISH TODAY was a good call

The CHART above
from 1101 down to 1074 was 5 waves = 1
1074 back up to 1095 = possible wave 2
then 3 waves dn-up-dn to 1042 on the 28th
Back UP to 1067 Today for wave 4, which may or may not be complete

NEXT is wave 5 which IMO, completes on Nov 3rd at 11am
___________________________________
BUT this down leg is ONLY part of the correction NOT the WHOLE

There is ONE huge reason for this action at this time
MARS entered LEO on OCTOBER 16th which gave us the first indication that
MARS was NOT a happy camper and wont be happy during this transit till JUNE 2010
_________________________________________
Also note that Saturn's transit of Virgo entered 29 degrees on oct21st
29 degrees is the WILD card of a transit and FUSSY VIRGO sure did start something.
________________________________
28th at 4am of the 29th we had a SUN 90 MARS effecting markets
__________________________________
this wkend and Monday - MARS gets rough with MERc & Uranus = emotional overload
unreliability- ANGER- unyielding- unsafe- hmmm doesnt sound very happy to me.
__________________________________________________
Thats enuf to absorb for now- any more will only get lost in the daily updates
HOWEVER,

THERE is ONE more EVENT this year that WILL SHAKE UP THE ESTABLISHMENT
and cause HAVOC through out the world
MARS will TURN RETROGRADE on DEC 20th and HE WILL JAM ON THE BRAKES
leading to the DECMEBER 31st BLUE MOON ECLIPSE adding to INSECURITIES
and CONFLICTS.

needless to say
WE WILL ALL BE VERY HAPPY TO SAY GOOD BY to 2009

REMEMBER - YOU HEARD IT HERE FIRST
more later
Jay

Bullish or Not?

Futures change FOCUS for the OPEN

SPX lost 60 pts and now should REGAIN at least 20 pts to 1060
TODAY and part of tomrrow.

STILL should DROP off after the OPEN ~~ JUST LIKE it did on NOV 21st, 2008.

It would appear the E MINI did get to 1037, but the cash mkt did not

STILL got NOV 2nd, and NOV 3rd in RETREAT

THAT SUN 90 MARS had its effect yesterday and did have an effect on ASIA overnight, but its
INFLUENCE has past and now only cycles remain as the influence for today

Power index shows potential for big day today and im waiting for Propens index to catch up
and show me what to expect tomrrow, but for today it also agrees with a rally.

Jay

Free fall

This DESCENT from 1101 doesnt stop on stochastics

It takes a critical CYCLE pivot which
ONE MORE TIME
is TOMRROW at 10;30-11am

Jay

correlation - maybe

Consider the SCENARIO I have laid out
against the above chart
Kenny used this chart to show where we might be at the moment

FROm where I stand it looks LIKE the X wave hit at 1091
that might mean wave a after the X might have hit this AM
BUT I dont think so

WE have 2 important CYCLES converging in NOV
first on NOV 2/3 IMO, and then on NOV 9/13 according to Hadik

THUS, I would overlay the MKT to hit wave a AFTER the X on NOV 2nd
then wave b which follows on NOV6th
leaving ONLY wave c -Y to occur on NOV 9-13
and IMO, its actually NOV 16th

ALSO What ALL that means is WE GET another
RUN to new 2009 HIGHS by DEC 17th - Which is WHERE we see JUPITER 0 Neptune
that represents the ULTIMATE illusion of POWER

BUT we really dont need to be concerned about Dec just yet.
its just to get some perspective on what level the
NOV 2nd and or 13th dates might settle out.

keep in mind a very simple RULE OF THUMB = SPX 40 pts = to dow 300 pts
Ive been recording this phenomena for quite some time now

From 666 to 1101 = 435 pts, nearly 440 which is 11 x 40
From Oct2 to Oct21 at 1101 = 81 pts
From 1101 to 1061 is Hmmmm = 40 pts

NOW we should probably be looking for this wave to correct
the WAVE from July8th at 870 to 1100 = 230 pts
the previous correction at that time was 6/11 to 7/10 and 86pts
________________________________________________
YOU CAN SEE HOW EVERY WAVE ADHERES closely to the 40 pt rule
& NEAR multiples of 40 So we should expect the same NOW
_____________________________________________

using FIBO we can determine those price levels
38% x 230 = 88
50% = 115
55% = 126
62% = 143
and so forth

So far we only see about half of 38% = 40 pts

1pm was 204bars and they are taking that out as I write
the next bar cycle is at 3pm

Jay

MORE DRIFT

chart from Kenny's blog

counting yesterdays close as a 5th wave might be a bit short sighted

After a shock like yesterday we might think there should
be more drift lower and thats very possible today

couple of things I track lead me to look for drift lower

I track a 13 day cycle which You may be aware of
called the JAYWIZ cycle

IT HIT exactly at NOON yesterday, but did NOT stop the MKT
from heading lower afterward

ITS A 13 day cycle which I have broken into its FIBO parts
The NEXT MAIN STOP of that cycle is on THURSDAY at 10:30

BUT
in between, is another POSSIBLE stop at 10am on the 28th, which could lead to
a strong rally for the day till 2-3pm as I have posted several times
___________________________

So whats next?
DRIFT LOWER today, with some attempts at minor upswings
a Jaywiz cycle low at 10am tomrrow with a STRONG attempt to run it up till 2-3pm
a Jaywiz cycle low at 10:30 Thursday & rally which might up hold all day
but that means the 30th should start lower into that NOV2nd LOW on the radar
___________________
basically its my heading-- SELL THE RALLIES till NOV 2nd LOW

Jay

Chart pattern trader public charts

Referring to chart above, AND reading the accompaning
material which explains waning volume, etc we can see the mkt is locked into a descending
channel
NOW it just becomes a matter of WHEN rather than IF

In order to determine WHEN, we MUST look into the FUTURE
and how do we do that?
we can use CYCLES, chart patterns, Astro, Elliott or all of those and more

My power index still indicates some selling today,
and that would take it back to the lower line at 1080 - 1075
but the chart pattern above says it wont be severe UNTIL the BOTTOM line is broken

WHEN can we EXPECT that to happen?
there is a 39 hour cycle hi due on the 28th at 2pm, thus it could become the turn point high
FROM there, the daily readings become pessimistic and culminate on NOV 2nd

SO, here we are {BEARS IN WAITING}- just like the PIC from REd Dragon
In the meantime, we can catch the small waves of SPX 10 pts down, then 10pts up

Why do markets stall ? because traders wait for a signal to buy or sell
NEWS? as a catalyst, yes, but not a reason- if you get what I mean
THE SELLING MODE IS ON, but we wait for the other shoe to fall, so to speak

Jay

SELL the RALLIES

from chart pattern trader - link to red dragon to see more

About to SPILL ITS GUTS

Link to HELGE to see His expectations for Monday

Mkt has TURNED THE corner

BUY the DIPS for SHARP rallies of SHORT duration

Oct26th LOW should get a 2day rally with a high at 2pm on the 28th

Nov 2 as described b4 should get Nov 5th rebound high,
but more detail on that later

Jay

Market Thoughts

Chart from Mortie IMO, has it pictured correctly

I had posted a MARKET decline starting on the 22nd, but it really began on the 20th
22nd was only a FIBO retracement for the SPx at 78.6%

And I had also written, the mkt would GIVE IT UP on the 23rd and 26th

Im still expecting a GAP open lower, which did NOT occur on the 23rd,
but should do so on the 26th

Jaywiz cycle points to a low at noon, but it could pivot (+) or (-) one hour either way
90bars @ 10am
126 bars @ 1:30
150bars @ 4pm

Late recovery leads to a strong 27th, and another short opp at 2pm on 28th

NOV2nd is STILL the longer & stronger short term cycle pivot low
233 fibo Dec1, 2008- that day was off 700 pts
81 july8th low
54 Aug17th lo
110 Jan 2 hi
21 to 10/2

more later
Jay

78.6%

SPX 1095 = 78.6% from todays low

SELL late AFTERNOON today

Jay

CANT IGNORE THIS ONE

Chart from MARKET Thoughts - see link on main page


NOW theres a BREAK that WONT GO un noticed

SELLING begets more selling at times like this

Jay

BEARS are WAITING

Just in case you missed this - PIC is from RED DRAGON

Use the LINK on my main page to his blog

Even tho we see the FUTURES pointing lower at 8:45am,
I think the day should end on the upside
and at least attempt 1096-1097 as has already been mentioned by others.

As far as GAP opening lower, we will probably hold that off till FRIDAY and or Monday

SPX 1080 has been posted by others as an important break point.

FLUX indicator is FLAT and has been for 3 days = bearish
Activity index was FLAT at 66 ALL night, but is now at 100 @ 9am
propens index shows some weakness in the AM, and strength later today
Jaywiz cycle has a pivot low due at 11;29am-
<>

basically more stalemate today- good to hear that
CNBC sees the 1100 as a culmination point,
BUT NO ONE is predicting a major sell off

FOR more charting- LINK to Red Dragon, and use his links to see some
very good charts and commentary

more later
Jay

WHATS NEXT ?

According to my Scientific Resources the STOCK markets WILL GIVE IT UP

ON

OCTOBER 22 -23 & 26

Jay
_____________________________________

Repeat : FROM The WEEKEND report

spread sheet with daily ARMS index back 5 + years

IT JUST ISSUED A TECHNICAL SELL SIGNAL

ON 10/1

5 day ARMS was @ 160
5day TRIN was@ 802
10 trin was @ 1538

on 10/16
5day arms = 79.4 -- under 100 is a sell
5 day trin = 397 -- under 400 is a sell
10 trin = 841 -- under 1000 is a SELL

THE KEY number is the 10 day which just dropped out of bed today

Tomrrow @ 10am
Will most likely see the dow at 10089
and spx at 1098

Cycles

Chart is from SLOPE of HOPE
Go over there if you cant read it here, using the link I provided on my main page.

I picked up on an 11day cycle recently- I dont know HOW long it is going to repeat
but here are the dates for now

July10 @ was also a turn higher on a Jaywiz cycle low @ 10;30
July31st, but the 29th was the low & turn on the Jaywiz cycle low at 11am
Aug 17 - low
Spt 2 - low
Spt18 but the high was on the 23rd& the Jaywiz cycle was on the 22nd at 10:30am
Oct 2nd - low
Oct 19th TODAY - & the Jaywiz cycle was on Oct12th at 10:30am
NEXT comes
Nov 2nd , but the Jaywiz cycle is on the 29th at @10:30am
indicating potential for a turn higher on the day,
but imo does not negate the 2nd for the pivot low
Nov 16
Nov 30
I guess we will see how those future dates work out

They are only dates that seem to indicate a turn, so we will watch them as they approach

Jay

Chart pattern trader public charts

Go over to RED Dragon via a link from my main page

Scroll down at links on the right and click on " chart pattern traders charts"

He has multiple DETAILED charts showing technical data other than the above chart

Ive only chosen this one as it has an overall view of that last few months

You will also notice THIS IS NOT Elliott wave
______________________________________

Thanks again for Spiral calendar article pointing out
Oct16th
Nov23
Dec11
as important future dates
I was impressed as he did have JULY11th as a key date earlier this year
which did turn out to be the pivot date into the the current high
___________________

Jay

Tech SELL SIGNAL

INternals just gave a TECHNICAL SELL SIGNAL

You may not know it , but I keep a DAILY LOG of

DOW
SPX
NASDAQ
NDX
XAU

PC ratios

spread sheet with daily ARMS index back 5 + years

IT JUST ISSUED A TECHNICAL SELL SIGNAL

ON 10/1

5 day ARMS was @ 160
5day TRIN was@ 802
10 trin was @ 1538

on 10/16
5day arms = 79.4 -- under 100 is a sell
5 day trin = 397 -- under 400 is a sell
10 trin = 841 -- under 1000 is a SELL

THE KEY number is the 10 day which just dropped out of bed today

Tomrrow @ 10am
Will most likely see the dow at 10089
and spx at 1098

Jay

new thread & NOV 2nd

NOV 2nd = 610 FIBO low
Follows
SPT2nd
OCT 2nd
NOv 2nd
Last of that sequence

Nov- DEC & Jan have an UPSIDE Bias

Timing the rest of this month, got pushed back from 7th to 14th
because the actual low was OCT2nd, not SPT 25th as previously had been posted.
Each date was ONE WEEK apart= 5 trade days

Using 14th as the TURN ** also indicated by Erik Hadik as a conversion date
20th low intraday
rebound to 22 - mid day
lower to 23/26th
rebound to 28th =39hrs at 2pm possible hod
Low on NOv 2nd or intraday on 3rd..

Using FLASH's posted low of 8650 is simple fibo math
10k-6440= 3550 Dow pts gained
3550 x 38.2% = 1350 Dow pts
10K- 1350 = 8650
55% = 1952 pts = dow 8050 which comes close to the JULY10th MAIN PIVOT
JULY10 WAS the SPIRAL CAL date, AS IS OCT16th
CHRIS has DEC 10th as a possible CRASH date, NOT NOV 13th,
but I see them only as pivot lows on the way to a LATE Jan high

THE MAIN POINT I WANT stress is HOW QUICK this will happen
Between NOW and NOV 2nd
THE PROOF of LOSS will be HOW deep the hit on OCT19th

THE SHARP drop is simply because this will be a "B" wave.
which means the REAL "C" - P2 is still coming and probably
WONT TOP TILL MID Jan 15th ECLIPSE

_____________________________

NOV 2nd DATA
Full moon at 2;14pm
is surrounded by hard aspects
and is ONE Day after the return to EST

NOV 2nd date is related to
DEC1st, 2008, which is 233 fibo & dow was off 680pts that day,
THAT DATE became the PIVOT LOW till late Jan, early Feb.

NOV 2 = 54 tr days from AUG17th low to low
NOV 2 = 110 from Jan 2 HIGH to low
Jan 2 was a LARGE fibo convergence of 55-89-110 + 144 tr days
Nov 2 = 21 tr days from Oct2nd

That LAST time I showed YOU a large fibo convergence was OCT 2nd
and we know what happened after


Jay

NO MORE UPSIDE this week

SPT 23rd high @ 2;30pm -Fed day
+ 39 hours

Oct 2nd LOW @ 10am
+ 39 hours

Oct12th high
+39 hours

Oct20th at 10am - low
Oct20 also has a 50%/13 day cycle segment at 2pm
No way to know which will be the LOD
_________________________________
Overlapping cycles
Spt30 at 10am lo
OCT 8th at 10am hi
NEXT is OCT 16th at 10am
______________________

Weakness increases today, and tomrrow
Expect a HUGE drop on 15th
Minor reversal on 16th at 10am, BUT
resumption of decline on 19th & 20th as above

Jay
media and public sentiment very positive
CNBC loves to hear themselves say DOW 10,000
Today's closing PC ratios should be quite bearish

Monday Oct12th

You can pick whatever reason you want in hindsight

BUT Im going to STICK my NECK out and predict
an SPX 25 pt or Dow 200 pts LOSS Monday into 10;30am
and virtually flat the rest of the day

Now that the Market has just about everyone convinced its looking for 1108
and of course the floor wants you to BELIEVE higher highs are coming next week
They dont want the public butting in on their territory

And that decline is NOT as {Market Thoughts} pictured
as a wave 2 setback thus setting up the next wave higher

And just because some of us could NOT convince the mkt to turn on the 8th [g]
doesnt mean more highs are ahead -

more later
Jay

5th wave FAILURE ?

chart FROM Market THOUGHTS

a very bearish view

Label it any way you wish, it calls for a serious change in direction

Heavy astro activity this weekend - leads to NEW moon next week end

with hard aspects in abundance on the 15th & 16th.

Jay

OCTOBER 2009

For those keeping score at home today looks familiar. October tops/bottoms since 2002:

2008: 10/10 (Friday before options exp) 23.8% rally in 2 days!!!
2007: 10/11 (Thursday before options exp) 8.1% drop next 4 weeks
2006: No Trend
2005: 10/13 (Thursday before options exp) 4.9% rally next 3 weeks.
2004: 10/7 (Thursday before options exp) 4.7% drop next 3 weeks.
2003: 9/30 - 5.9% rally next 2 weeks (last day of Sept, gave it a pass)
2002: 10/10 (Thursday before options exp) 17.0% rally next 2 weeks.

-dmo

I thought that RESEARCH was WORTH repeating

ASTRO for 15th & 16th indicate a sell off for 2009
_________________________________________________

TODAY should SELL OFF till 11 to 11;30 @ astro & cycle convergence
recovery till 3:45 , but later should continue to decline at close

Today is mostly influenced by Venus 180 Uranus - cages get rattled
The END of AN expansion is prevalent as the SUn is 120 Jupiter tommrow
NOT only that BUT JUPITER turns DIRECT on MONDAY after close
It has been RETRO during the UPTREND- this is contrary to typical horoligical
thinking about Jupiter, but UNDENIABLE none the less

more later
Jay

OCTOBER 2009

Here is a VISUAL chart of NATURAL energy for OCTOBER

As you can see, we did get the OCTOBER 2nd LOW as SHOWN

AND October 7th HIGH as SHOWN

----------------------------------------
NEXT shows the START of a DECLINE on the 8th or 9th into the 12th

a very quick rebound on the 12/13th AS was DISCUSSED with ARAK

Then A CONTINUATION of a DECLINE on 14th to 16th as PER FLASH & Jaywiz

Rebound HIGH on 22nd or 23rd

24th resumes downtrend

Secondary LOW late month/ day after T day?? or early NOV

MORE LATER

Jay
PS: if this one works out, then I'll publish it monthly

P2 TOP or NOT

This is NOT an endorsement of ELLIOTT wave

However,

IT DOES POINT OUT that SPT 23rd WAS the P2 TOP

AND That WILL BECOME evident as I posted MANY times from OCT8th to the 19th

Both RED Dragon & I missed participating the rally from OCT 2nd LOW to Oct6th high
BUT we both LAST WEEK had called for a 2day rally off the OCT 2nd LOW

WE GOT JUST THAT
and to boot it got to 1060 as HE had projected and my FIBO math agreed.

NOW we have a potential to drop off to the 1035 area by tomrrow morning
thus allowing ONE more BULLISH attempt Thursday on the Midnite high tide
coinciding with moon 120 Sun at 9pm

BUT TIME HAS RUN OUT FOR the BULL & SPX 1100- IT AINT GONNA HAPPEN

P3 will be a LONG drawn out affair lasting till next March, but just like last Spt,
this OCTOBER will point out GLARING ECONOMIC deficiencies.

more later
Jay

Wave Count ?

From 1060.55 At 11;15 am

Looks like the wave is heading lower
Wave i down to noon
wave ii up to 12;45
wave [i] to 1047.24 at 2;30
Now in wave [ii] so far to 1050.59 at 2;45pm
wave [iii] should be next on the schedule

Jay

1080-1020 =60
60 x 62% = 37 + 1023 @ 3;45pm low on Friday =1060

AFTER the OPEN

The OPEn FUTURES at 8am promises to hit 1050, the 50% retrace line on the spx

the warning from the stars says

DONT promise more than you can deliver
the risk today is one of overdoing it

Jay

Bullish or Not?

In 1987 , October 5th & 6th was the START of something BIG

BUT this year is NOT 1987 and those looking for the SAME will be disappointed

HOWEVER, IM expecting an OCTOBER 13th similar to Spt 23rd and the fall after
a mid day high on the 13th into Oct19th might emulate 1987 to some degree.

Flash has posted SEVERAL times expecting a MID MONTH smash
Jaywiz says BEWARE the IDES of October
in other words - DONT BE BULLISH after Oct13th at 2:32pm

more later
Jay

LOWER on MONDAY

Even tho i dont agree with ALL HIS LABELING,
the OUTCOME for Monday is STILL LOWER to spx 1000 area

OFFERS a GREAT short term buying OPP for the next rebound into 7th till about 1pm

Oct 7th is an 8day high
making Oct 8th an 8 day TURN

If Monday makes a low at or near spx 1000 at the
JAYWIZ cycle pivot @10:43 to 11am, that might be the LOD

As far as labeling Monday's low might be considered wave [i] , not iii nor [iii]

Wave iii of [iii] seems on schedule for Oct 8th to 20th and could break out into 5 waves also.

Flash has posted b4 lows at or near Dow 8450
Hadik has similar targets for for NOV 13th.

more later
Jay

CHANNEL

Chart Via Daneric's blog

I SEEM to remember SOMEONE Else projecting OCTOBER 2nd to SPX 1000

Who was that Masked man ???

OOOOOHHHHH YEH - it was JAYWIZ

Pivot low due at 11;30

I dont think its Minuette [i]

I think its [iv] of previous degree, now looking for [v] of 5 of C
to END the UPTREND From march 9th

I had Written that LAST month and repeated it SEVERAL TIMES

WE Still have ONE MORE IMPULSE wave to OCT 8th and or 12th

Oct 12th and or 13th COULD be VERY SIMILAR to SPT 22nd & 23rd.

On the 12th there is a JAYWIZ CYCLE @ 10:30 and a MARS 60 Saturn at 5pm
13th has a VEnus 60 Mars at 2;32pm
Spt 22nd had a Jaywiz cycle at 10:30 and we topped the next day @ 2;30

No Fed this time.

I will elaborate the fascinating Jaywiz cycle at another time
It has been amazing since I discovered it on NOV 21st at 11.05 AM

more later
Jay

OCTOBER 2009

IT SEEMED there was a DELAY of about ONE WEEK on this chart
SPT 2nd low on the chart looked like SPT 8 or 9
BUT
it was UP all the way from 9/2 to 9/17 as published--
& also ONE WEEK LATER on the 23rd - not on the chart


That brings us to present
the LATE SPT decline as published should have happened from the 17th to 25th
QUESTION NOW becomes ~ was the LOW on the 25th as published
and are we NOW in SYNC with the CHART ???????
OR
does that CHART show the 23rd as the high and NOW OCT 2nd as a LOW
AS IVE POSTED several times ??


WE did get STRONG RALLY right after a low on the 25th
IT now looks possible that the END of MONTH high did occur on the 28th
AND OCTOBER 2nd should set back some AS PUBLISHED
_________________________________

I was THINKING that OCT 7th would NOT start
the decline as the published chart, BUT NOW
I AM RECONSIDERING that IT NOW WILL do just that.

I had been thinking it would be DELAYED one WEEK, to the 13th but
ASTRO this OCTOBER fits QUITE WELL with duplicating 1987 & its
AMazing that JUST LIKE 1987, OCT 5th STARTED
a MAJOR SELL OFF to the 16th/19th
THIS OCT published chart is a NEAR DUPLICATE of 1987

OCOTBER looks like:
3 legs DOWN from OCT 5th
WAVE 1 hits a LOW on the 12th in the AM with the 13day cycle at 10:30 along with Neg lunar astro
Reading calls for SUDDEN REVIVAL

WAVE 2 Rebound on 12th to AM of 14th
WAVE 3 LOW on 19th at open
Wave 4 should make it to the 23rd, but could get more complicated
wave 5 might not end till Mid Nov - Hadik's cycle date

more later
Jay