Here is a VISUAL chart of NATURAL energy for OCTOBERAs you can see, we did get the OCTOBER 2nd LOW as SHOWN
AND October 7th HIGH as SHOWN
----------------------------------------
NEXT shows the START of a DECLINE on the 8th or 9th into the 12th
a very quick rebound on the 12/13th AS was DISCUSSED with ARAK
Then A CONTINUATION of a DECLINE on 14th to 16th as PER FLASH & Jaywiz
Rebound HIGH on 22nd or 23rd
24th resumes downtrend
Secondary LOW late month/ day after T day?? or early NOV
MORE LATER
Jay
PS: if this one works out, then I'll publish it monthly
50 comments:
Thanks Jay. this makes sense. agrees with deneric chart to some degree.
Futures already at 1059.75 ie. spx 1064.
tomorrow should go down to 1036
now it went to 1064 but dropping
I am starting to pity the bears at this stage. Just like bulls were trying to pick bottom, bears are trying to pick a top for this rally.
This market has successfully bankrupted the bulls in 2008 and bears in 2009.
Ouch!
Jay @jaywiz10534 I am not short at all right now; please don't put words in my mouth on your blog; thanks !
about 1 hour ago from web
Flash
Samamehta,
What proof do you have for a 1036 target?
Frank
frank, none, was thinking that if this is 5 wave up, second wave down may take us to 1040.
now i think most we get is 1056 and then up in w3 to new high
btw, 1036 must be from deneric blog.
FLASH
PEOPLE cannot interpret your twitter
I was attempting to decifer
Jay
Plese comment more often
we get commentators posting yur twitter and sometimes they dont get it
I do have a DIRECT link to FLASH
on the main page
PLEASE elaborate
What are saying
1083
1011
PEOPLE want to KNOW
thanks , from the JAYWIZ group
Jay
samamwhta,
thanks for replying.
you demonstrated precisely what's wrong with using elliotwave....a wave based on a "wave" and nothing else.
BTW deneric was one of those elliotwavers who missed this rally also because of a wrong count.
Frank
Jay, Coy and others,
Any reading updates
Thanks
Other 50 percent short at 42.38
My avg is now 42.06 qqqq
My avg. spx is 1057
50 percent 1048 and 50 percent 1066.
looking at tomorrow/monday as being a new high for the move and scaling into shorts from there.a break below 1045 and ill short regardless.if we dont sell off below yesterdays gap in the next hour i will buy a long position for the remainder of the day.seems quiet on here today? wheres everyone?
after8.
no one wants to be here anymore. too much confusion.
x
The S&P should peak right near
1069 TODAY !
gannsecret
Who's dumb enough to short here? We're about 180 away from DOW 10,000...duh. Once we hit that, it could cause another surge for a few hundred more DOW points before a selloff...maybe...or keep rallying. Either way, a strong rally like this needs a blowoff and we haven't seen it yet.
x
GannS
What is your postion?
Or are you waiting for 1069 to short?
I'm dumb enough to short here whoever you are. Go long then, tell us what you bought ?
Gannsecret
Yes I'm selling now
I bought FAS yesterday and no I'm not going to post here...waste of time. The denial among bearish blogs like this one is unbelievable. They've been doubting this rally since March and here we are still doubting 10,000. Then once we hit 10K and the media pulls in more sideline money, they'll be doubting it again at 11,000 and so on til the end of the year overshorting every little correction and missing out on the larger bull legs.
x
I expect a low hit around 13:48, not as low as 10:07, of course.
GannS,
I've posted my trades.
100 percent short qqqq
from avg. 42.06 or spx 1057
Sorry GannS,
I thought you were talking to me.
Those anons are annoying.
Jay said,
"BUT TIME HAS RUN OUT FOR the BULL & SPX 1100- IT AINT GONNA HAPPEN"
------------------------------
It is SO gonna happen!!!!!!!!!
xx
This blog is useless lie all the other ones. Look at this rally go and almost no one here is long. Now that's pathetic.
Chuck
I am short at 1070
We could extend here a little bit longer, but there is a valid ABC up to the highs today. Not sure if anyone can view this: stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SPX&p=15&b=5&g=0&i=p47862175553&a=170998045&r=1250
All the elements are there. Index Put/Call buying supports a top today as well.
anon X
Im really glad your doing WELL
Obviously this blog is useful to you as a contrary indicator
Keep it up, but please dont SNIP at us.
We appreciate constructive comments with substance
Jay
NICE chart from one ANON
Please IDentify yourself with at least one initial.
Or better yet, we need that kind of info all the time.
Please feel free to LOG in as a member - there are NO fees & not even requests for donations
BUT we can ALL benefit from good charts.
thanks
Jay
12;47 PM today has a minor LUNAR Mars event which APPEARS might hve peaked the day at 1070.76
Well know soon enuf if they sell off
or just hold ground today
Today is an 8day TURN
Saturday is a BRADLEY, its TURn should come today and or tomrrow
258bar cycle at 3;30 could turn the close back up.
so far the 204bar cycle did hit at 11am prior to the last rise
into 12:45
and of course we do have a 1pm Daily turn window
Jay
You can call Anon, dmo
Further to that last chart, 1PM becomes an important time point today. If we begin to break down there we could have a quick 8-10 point down off the high into the 2PM hour. That could lead to a potentially sidways move for an hour and down into the close to close this mornings gap. In a perfect world we would finish a penny or two in the green to put a black oxy on the daily chart.
If there is no weakness at or shortly after 1PM, it's probably a good bet we close near the highs.
Equity Indexes will rise with the 30 Yr T-Bond Yield, $TYX. Vice-versa.
FROM MAHENDRA:
Dear Members,
Two trading days are pending in our 12 October Sharp in stock and metals. Normally it takes 12 to 36 hours for results so sharp fall in stocks and metals will take place either on 12 or 13 of October, and from there down ward journey will start for the next 45 days.
From dum&dummer trading:
"Equities will launch the most explosive rise in the history of of earth starting on Oct. 12. We prject DOW 15000 IN 2 MONTHS AND s&p 2000."
DO NOT GET LEFT BEHIND!
dd
Nice blog Jay. How are you psoitioned currently? -Gino
thanks GINO
We do get a few #^@&(^@
BUT for the most part they are straight up people- mostly short term traders
IM short, waiting for GODOT [g]
Today {SHOULD} settle back to flat, but My scientific data doesnt corroborate that
Tomrrow,
calls for UNWELCOME NEWS & a change of plans which is in Direct CONTRAST to today
Which I interpret as SELLERS come out to play.
At 1pm, the buying dried up, but NO selling has appeared , and probably wont
obv is off the highs, but NOT diving
Macd hit a peak at 9:45 am
MY activity index did hit 33 earlier today, looks like a V
high in AM, low midday and back up at 3pm at 100,
& showing a little strength
Jay
Things are shaping up nicely. We need a close below 1064 to set up for some nice down on the dailies.
-dmo
We did a five wave i down into 2:25 low and ii up into 3:09 low. That indicates we are early in a iii now.
Not sure how it fits into the bigger picture.
Still 100 percent short qqqq from
42.06 avg. or 1057 spx. ST trend
has rolled over.
You like fractals? How ya like dem' fractals?
stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$NDX&p=D&b=5&g=0&i=p67701976411&a=180348444&r=6121
-dmo
Still short and reloaded near 1070 today.
ptg
Highest net new highs on the Nasdaq in 2 years. History says this spike up is not good for bulls.
stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$NAHL&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&i=p37697220173&a=180350051&r=1251
-dmo
ditto the NYSE
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$NYHL&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&i=t24040709040&r=2163
-dmo
The end of this rally is near imo...lots of buying panic, buying exhaustion, etc. Plus a leader of the market GS actually turned negative today...hmmm. But this manic market will probably explode higher tomorrow taking out my stop at 1071+ just to teach me a lesson...lol
ptg
Bears will have to get spanked again reall soon. Looking forward to it.
polly
GREAT STUFF
Thanks for all your efforts
See yuh tomrrow
jay
For those keeping score at home today looks familar. October tops/bottoms since 2002:
2008: 10/10 (Friday before options exp) 23.8% rally in 2 days!!!
2007: 10/11 (Thursday before options exp) 8.1% drop next 4 weeks
2006: No Trend
2005: 10/13 (Thursday before options exp) 4.9% rally next 3 weeks.
2004: 10/7 (Thursday before options exp) 4.7% drop next 3 weeks.
2003: 9/30 - 5.9% rally next 2 weeks (last day of Sept, gave it a pass)
2002: 10/10 (Thursday before options exp) 17.0% rally next 2 weeks.
-dmo
Let's see if the good ol' dollar strengthens soon.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB125498941145272887.html?mod=rss_Asia_Markets_News
ptg
thanks dmo
good research
Jay
I'm expecting a flat day today Jay, as rarely does the market fall hard on Friday's. Next week should be down with the biggest support level around 1020.
It's has horizontal support and 2 rising trend lines for support. If we get a close below 1020 (on a 10 minute chart), then 995-1000 is the next major support and should be hit fast.
That 995-1000 area hasn't been tested as has a 80% chance of a nice bounce, so don't get fooled into thinking that it's going to fall further.
That will be the perfect point to squeeze the bears, as many will jump on the short side. I'll be going long there, as it will likely rally from that point.
Raymond Merriman actually has 8th-9th as a turn date. One of the paid services that I subscribe too has 7th-10th.
I jumped the gun too early, but I'm remaining short as next week should fall.
Yes, I'm underwater on my position. But, if you can't afford to take a lost, you shouldn't be playing this game of cards. No one gets rich sitting on the sidelines.
Since everyone expects that 1108 gap fill to happen, what will everyone do when it does? GO Short of course! But, if everyone is expecting it, then it's common knowledge... hence it won't happen.
They squeezed out practically every remaining bear yesterday, so all that's left is Bulls. Do you really think the market only squeezes bears? Of course not. So, what's the best way to butcher the bulls... drop like rock next week!
Red
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