With the gap up in futures, the five wave straight forward impulse count from 1080 is out,, since we exceed wave (i)
FIRST ALTERNATIVE: Morphing into an expanding ending diagonal which will imply move to 1054 area for its fourth wave followed by a drop below 1020 to complete expanding diagonal 1 of P3, to be followed by a deep a,b, c correction up for 2.
ALTERNATIVE TWO: Still in P2, doing another zig zag to above 1080. Now in (a) of the zigzag to be followed by (b) and then (c) up above 1080.
Well if you followed most of the elliotwavers this weekend, you were(are) waiting for a 5wave down that never materialized and thus missed this rally up. It's not elliotwave that has a problem but those that use it.
very good point! i agree. especially very short term intraday trading. virtually impossible. Jay had this bottom pegged a week ago as did a few others but it seemed to me that elliotwave got in the way of it and botched the trade up. and it was virtually all of the elliotwavers linked to this blog and others who got caught as well.
Yes Carl Elliott wave is SUBJECTIVE until AFTER the event
Jay YES. Oct 2nd was the BUY as previously indicated.
NOW, where is the SELL ? Could be today at 11;38 OR Thursday at close midnite high tide power index at 600 9th calls for UNWELCOME news
Overall it looks like we get a high this AM, Some selling into the morning of the 8th & one more push higher into the close when some heavy selling comes in thru Monday, 12th
ONE more REVIVAL on 12th AFTER 10;30 Jaywiz index topping on the 13th similar to Spt23rd action@ 2;32pm
then the bear has his day next week thru the 19th.
26 comments:
With the gap up in futures, the five wave straight forward impulse count from 1080 is out,, since we exceed wave (i)
FIRST ALTERNATIVE: Morphing into an expanding ending diagonal which will imply move to 1054 area for its fourth wave followed by a drop below 1020 to complete expanding diagonal 1 of P3, to be followed by a deep a,b, c correction up for 2.
ALTERNATIVE TWO: Still in P2, doing another zig zag to above 1080. Now in (a) of the zigzag to be followed by (b) and then (c) up above 1080.
7:23 AM
sorry, in my rush, I left out the reference to RAVi for that commment
from the previous day
Jay
Let me add the THIRD ALTERNATIVE, very bearish
- Doing (i), (ii), i, ii
(i) was 1080.15 to 1045.85
(ii) to 1063.96
i of (iii) to 1019.95
ii of (iii) , since then
EWP , 10th edition, page 40, re Leading Diagonal, talks about confusion between LD and far more common series of first and second waves.
U still in bgz jay and short? I don't think we're getting that low you've been talking about. Have u considered going long?
Well if you followed most of the elliotwavers this weekend, you were(are) waiting for a 5wave down that never materialized and thus missed this rally up.
It's not elliotwave that has a problem but those that use it.
carl
ps. I like Jay's astro work though.
Jay:
What is your work -astro, cycle etc.- indicating for the short term?
1063.34 will eliminate THIRD ALTERNATIVE of a series of one, two posted earlier.
Ravi, are u paying attention to the $
Carl,
I have yet to see an EW trader
make money real time using EW.
Lots of analysis but no real money.
IMHO
since you aksed
astro events this week
6th
Sun # Venus at 11;38 today
might provide the HOD
7th
merc 0 saturn
tie up loose ends
8th
moon 120 sun Late
Midnite high tide
9th
Venus 180 Uranus
confusion rattles people
Venus 150 Neptune
disillusion replaces those rose colored glasses
Basically it means a change of attitude is coming this friday
Jay
Oct 2nd was the LOW i had expected for that date
Oct 7th to open on 9th as described b4 should end at spx 1063 maximum.
given the Spt 23 rd high of 1080
60 pts lost
x 55% = 33 + 1020 to 1025@close = 1058 - almost there today
x 62% = 37 + 1020/1025 = 1057 to 1062
We are very close to both of those levels right now
jaywiz index yesterday was .26 = quite bearish
PC ratios were mixed
activity index dropped from 133 at 9:30 to 66 at 11am with 30 to 60 min delay
Jay
victor,,
very good point!
i agree. especially very short term intraday trading. virtually impossible.
Jay had this bottom pegged a week ago as did a few others but it seemed to me that elliotwave got in the way of it and botched the trade up.
and it was virtually all of the elliotwavers linked to this blog and others who got caught as well.
carl
Yes Carl
Elliott wave is SUBJECTIVE until AFTER the event
Jay
YES. Oct 2nd was the BUY as previously indicated.
NOW, where is the SELL ?
Could be today at 11;38
OR
Thursday at close
midnite high tide
power index at 600
9th calls for
UNWELCOME news
Overall it looks like we get a high this AM,
Some selling into the morning of the 8th & one more push higher into the close
when some heavy selling comes in thru Monday, 12th
ONE more REVIVAL on 12th AFTER 10;30 Jaywiz index topping on the 13th similar to Spt23rd action@ 2;32pm
then the bear has his day next week thru the 19th.
Jay
A day of reckoning. I have the high of the day at about 12:25. If we don't break 1069, the bear count is still alive. Let's see.
Coy,Jay,
I second the motion. Around this level is the "Rubicon" between bull and bear.
My larger cycles are still on SELL but at key confirmation levels. I favor the Bear resolution pending evidence to suggest otherwise.
Vic, where do you stand. Ravi, cal, jay have spoken.
No "oomph" to the high hit. The EUR/USD having peaked, we're likely to slide the rest of the day.
I have posted several times. I am flat as of this moment. I made 220
qqqq points in Sept. = 56 es points.
I will be patient and not give any back.
Thanks Vic. smart move
Sam
I WILL post though as soon as I get
an executed trade. Short term trend is still up.
I am short from 1057. sol at x-trend not unlike Jay is looking for 1036 intraday low today.
let us see hoe this works.
tight stop at 1060
cal have your system gave any signal yet?
thanks all.
I am out of my short here at 1051
For what it is worth, we had a five wave impulse down from top. LD and (i), (ii), i, ii scenarios still not out.
Jay,
Should we close shorts or hold on. Do u think the top is in for the week
Thanks
50 percent short qqqq from 41.74 or
spx 1048
Reza,
whats the sense of my periodic updates, if you dont read them.
I dont knwo HOw to answer, because I dont know When went short
Secondly i dont know YOUR paramaters for risk
I mentioned they should sell off today
recover some tomrrow
low on 8th in AM.
BUT I do expect a recovery again
latest would be Thursday close
Best day for shorts most likely FRIDAY into Monday at 10:30am
Play it as close or as loose as your comfortable with
Jay
Thanks jay. will wait for fri. for short entry. may go long at 1046, if it happens or 1030.
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