PROOF is what you SEE

the ABOVE chart shows what my last comment on the previous post described
in addition

on the 10day chart above
DOW started at 8270
then
8590 + 300pts
8230 -360 pts
8500 + 250
8250 - 250
8500 +250

We've got to be STUPID not to take advantage of the above in both directions
If you prefer the bull postion, by all means its right there
and so forth for the bearish lot

NOW, at some point there's going to be a dramatic shift, and the CYCLE is still on schedule for JUNE10th to 17th with the MAJOR emphasis on the last 3 days of June15 to17

Erik Hadik has the MARKET and GOLD making severe deep cuts the week of June17-18
Dow to 7600, hmmm
Which IVE BEEN calling for months
___________________________________________________

OK, so lets look at NEXT week, and see what we can glean from the above as transposed into trading.

Gold first
Jaywiz gold index last week
26th = 16
27th = 39
28th = 16
29th = 16
VOLUME lacking OBV failing on current rise to 980
REALLY now- need I say more
____________________________________________-

Since we are 8500, we might see a move to 8590, but I doubt it
lets consider the next important trading level as 8200 - 8250
WHEN is the next obvious question

According to the FLOW of price change we should see another drop to the
above mentioned low and another rise to the previous high 8500 +

MY old friend Kevin Murphy points out the WEAKENING of the THEORETICAL highs in May,
and the NEXT one within the next 10days- I have his research statement & will publish when I get his permission.
______________________________________________________
The JAYWIZ index for STOCKS on FRIDAY was a 20 = quite bearish
the DAY opens with a CHILL at 8:20am and could set the tone for the day
power index as mentioned b4 is at 325
propens index NOW points to a down open, low mid by mid day, rebound and final low at close
hourly cycles still at
9:45
11am
1pm
3pm

Bar cycles are
90b @ 10am
120b@ 12;30
150B @ 3pm
____________________________________________________
SOOO<
what can we ANTICIPATE ?
You can interpret what you wish, but the NEXT level
tested should be at 8200, MYABE NOT tomrrow, but certainly THIS WEEK
*************
Power index shows some potential for WEd ,
and coincidentally there is as 13 day cycle COMPLETION on Wed at 10:30am
followed by a quick rise that day on the power index
***********************
____________________________________________
Now, your going to ask what happened to rise previously reported on the power index for Tuesday
there is a CONFLICT with the 3, 4 5, & 6 day daily feeds, and I need to see how the
propens index acts in order confirm which one is more correct- the 5day = the above outlook
OR the 7day which shows the previous uptick on June2nd -
BUT IT also shows it collapsing on the same day
____________________________________________

As usuall, we cannot expect our bearish goals to be met ALL IN ONE DAY
thus it has become MY researched opinion that we will see out trading GOAL
of dow 8200 on June3rd at 10;30am
In between we should get the TYPICAL DOWNS & UPS
every day within the 300 pts range= 40spx pts

that 40 spx points is something Ive referred to many times
666 + 140=906 + 40 = 946 and thats why I had mentioned
that as a potential high during May - never got there and IMO, it wont

Murry math is at 909 and did provide resistence
a small over run on both led to 929 on May8th
and now 920 on May29th just one day prior to the Merc Retro

Needless to say it all fits quite well within the scope of the 300 pt trading range for May
thus the same old same old for the next 2 weeks

more later
Jay

A sell off cometh

This is TODAY at 1pm

Look at how the OBV is LACKING & declining on a market that
doesnt seem to be able to hold onto its gains

MACD is rolling over also

Ultimate index is pointing south

Call me crazy but I really dont see how they can close any higher than 909, even if that

Its looking like Monday should be one of those 300 pt losses

taking the dow to 8100 & spx to 870-875

IF they do make a RUN above 909 at 3pm, call it DOOMS-DAY, and I WILL BE BUYING MORE PUTS

more later
Jay
1pm
ps; hope your keeping up with me

RANGE 880- to 910

ANOTHER great chart from Fed Wilhelmus

Shows the RANGE from 910 to 880

Lets all CONCENTRATE on 880
maybe we can use the FORCE to get what we want [ggg]

pardon my attempt at humor

more later
Jay

WE are ON a FLOAT ?

Rotrot chart - ALMOST there

Thanks for the REALLY GREAT comments - good dialogue without derogatory remarks

first * what happened yesterday

UP open as predicted
10:30 low @ 204 bars as predicted
2pm -3pm high as predicted
3;36 low @258 bars as predicted
possible higher close as predicted

that ONLY thing we didnt get yesterday was LOW enuf to make $$ on the short position
high of +128dow and SPX 909 was EXACT
___________________________________________

Will we get that today ?? it doesnt look like it - damn
MMORE FRUSTRATION for bears- WE WERE Expecting 2 DOWN days in a ROW, hmm.
However, OBV at close yesterday was WEAK, and should indicate some more selling today, maybe
OBV actually peaked at noon yesterday, and usually is a leading indicator of a weak market
and thus we will keep an eye on it today for clues into Monday
MACD not crossed over yet - waiting in the wings - chart above

Activity index THIS MORNING is on the RISE from a low of 100 at 7am to 266 @ 8:30
and futures are pointing toward an up open
DAMN OIL & GOLD need to get HIT along with stocks,
STILL got JUNE8th to 17th for that REAL BEAR to appear
until then we PLAY in a range 880 to 920

TIM McCarthy has June24th for a MAJOR RUNUP, and I agree BUT June10 to 17th is DEAD AHEAD FIRST.

AL LARSON's XTIDE today- uses red & green tide- very confusing
but using that along with my power and Propens index, I am projecting the following for today

UP open
Down at 30bars @11;30 to noon @ 78.6% of 13 day cycle low
Up till at least 1pm - 1:30
down at 2pm @ 60 bars
UP CLOSE

This MEANS a lower resolution to spx 880, ( if coming at all,) will have to wait till MONDAY
Natural energy shows a hard hit for Monday & readings for Monday are negative
GM announcement on June1st- Monday - by rumor- sell news??
VHF over 5 = bearish, but the HIGHER readings > 15 is really what ive seen with strong sell offs
Flux active = bullish


Theres more, but I'm out of gas for the moment
Jay

UP for starters today

Just as indicated Yesterday

they will open higher and may extend gains from 1pm to 3pm
possible retest of spx 909,
Its not that far away = 128 dow points


TODAY's Activity index at 8am is way up there at 400
remember that yesterday it was FLAT all day at its lowest level @33

so a reading of 400 indicates a very strong open today
I will keep you updated during the day, but will be out of the office from 10am to noon

Power index is clustered at 400 for most of the day and drops later to 300
Power index opens Friday at 300, and immediately jumps to 500

propensity index today starts at 2990, then moves up to a high of 2996 somewhere mid day
best guess between 1pm & 3pm, then drops back down to 2990

Bar cycle
204b@ 10:30
228b@ 1pm
258b@ 3;30

remember that 180b@ 3;36 hit exact lows yesterday

Midnite high tide inverted = a low today

occasionally the 258b cycle extends up to 30 minutes = 264bars at close
maybe, but I still prefer the 3;36 time slot for the LOD

A caveat since I see the open Friday similar to Tuesday which was down for 5 minutes
then exploded up for the day

question becomes when to close out shorts and get long
My game plan is to get out of shorts late today, 3:36pm, provided that I buy short during the day
AND
BUY long at or before the close and ADD more on a lower open- Fri
And YES
I do PLAN to get SHORT at Close on Friday, and YES will add more shorts Monday AM if warranted

more later
Jay

GOLD

1 year GOLD chart
Notice the NOVEMBER 2008 low matching equity lows at the same time

If Mahendra and Myself are both right, then it would appear to me that
JUNE17th - 22nd could be an important low for BOTh as in Nov

NOTE the OBV is below the level achieved last July as well as March 09
and imo, is indicating a sell off cometh

Price of gold
994 on Feb 20 = sun / lunar sextile

897 , a Low on 3/10 = full moon

955, a high on March 19 = 90*Qtr moon

872 - 868 low on April 6 & 17th = 90* qtr moon

956 high on May22nd = new moon on 24th

NEXT LOW should match 60cal days from April17th
and or June 22nd on new moon
=30 cal days from May22nd

And the full moon on June 7th might come into play on the 5th

More Later
Jay

A SELL OFF COMETH

Rotrot -Thanks for the great chart

A sell off COMETH - NOT because of the chart above
BUT
I try to find one chart a day, if possible that has some meaning-
& its not the ONLY reason for my forecast.


Mahendra - THANKS - I AGREE with your outlook 100%
Metals DOWN, STOCKS DOWN ,and the Dollar UP -
yesterday's jaywiz GOLD index = 16 & last 2 days were 15 & 31
Adding it up a SELL on GOLD

Dollar settling near 79.50 as a FLOOR= a rally about to happen
and it happens against a falling stock mkt- inverse as it may seem

MERC turns DIRECT this wkend - sometimes has what seems like a delayed effect.
_____________________________________________-
Whats NEXT for stocks ?

Heres some data for the puzzle
Activity index was at 100 at 7am, and has dropped to 33, the lowest possible level for that index.
power index today struggles with a cluster near the 500 to 400 level- about the same as yesterday.

propensity index =
opens @2992 ,a little lower than earlier level at 2994 = similar to yesterday.
Jumps UP to 2996 by mid day- just like yesterday
Drops off to 2990 - just like yesterday
HMMM, are we getting a picture here
TODAY = SAME AS YESTERDAY ?????

However, THIS TIME a Late sell off should be more severe thus leading to
""A SELL OFF COMETH ""on May28th as the power index drops to the 300 level
lowest level there is 200

WATCH OUT as the 29th power index jumps back up to 500 at close after opening at 300
ANOTHER SELLING OPP @ friday's close ???
I think so, but I need more data b4 making that call
However, the astro read does call for a difficult day with June 2nd as the reverse of Monday

More later

9:20am
ps; I DID NOT close out my short position yesterday & I will add more today
the low at 3;45 did NOT present enuf $ to make it worthwhile
as the above data was becoming clearer


Jay

Another Chart of Interest

Heres a chart from Ibo, one of our followers

This clearly shows what ive written several times

As a trader the hardest thing we have to learn is WAITING

Hadik recently wrote that June8th is the earliest the mkt could turn down,
and expects a bottom on or about the 12th

Ibo's dates concur with the above as do mine, HOWEVER,
****we are both targetting June8th and 17th*********
__________________________________________________________
CURRENTLY
WE have a market churning at a high at or near the Jan6th SPX high of 934
Dow has been well below its Jan6th high of 9035, but managed to get near 8600.

HIGHS as we all know take time to FINISH all components-- in other words, THEY ROLL
Unlike bottoms which CLIMAX all at once or within a day of each other as indeces
YES, sometimes do a bounce and drop, but thats another story for another time.

My recent comments reflect ibo's chart above, and thus we must be aware of a range bound mkt
until such time as it falls off the cliff's edge,
AND IMO, that will be from June10th to 17th with the
MAJOR EMPHASIS on June 15 - 17 th;

NOW, we have many options to choose from as how to take advantage of that expected dive.

If your a BULL, you can wait till June17th, sell the farm and buy stock
or if a bear, its obvious you want to be short on June10-12
And a trader can catch both sides, short on the 12th- long on the 18th

NOW, the other end of those trades can be relatively short lived, so dont expect a
MOON shot no matter how good it looks come June 24th- this mkt is NOWHERE
clear of the woods for at least 2 more years

remember we are in the WINTER of the LONG
Kondratief wave
which I posted a couple times
_____________________________________________
As for this week, Ibo also see's a high on the 55 td cycle on the 26th,
and IMO, intraday of the 27th with a possbile run on spx 940 thus
failing an attempt to break out above the Jan6th high.

May 26-27 = 55 tr days from March 6 & 9th (LOW TO HIGH)
the intertia high was 7days later which now = June4th
IMO< translates to June 3rd ,which is an 8day turn date for me.
June3rd date has come up frequently with Tim McCarthy also
____________________________________________

BUT for now we must LEARN to TRADE the mkt,
& not sit on our long or short positions.

More Later
Jay

Chart of Interest

This chart shows the NEG divergence on Last wed at spx 924,
and now shows a positive divergence at spx 880

Jay

End Run

Frustrated bears soon to be rewarded
Yes I know, This is like calling out WOLF a little too often

As mentioned b4, Hindsight is 20-20
BUT
before bears take over we still have one more push to the top.

THE LOW on Friday at an 8day/ 144 cycle low
from Oct27th STILL Hit on Friday at close
irregardless of the lack of a stronger sell off

Tuesday and Wed have strong bullish readings
and strong bullish influences + power index highs

The Indications were for a SELL OFF
on May21th and 22nd AND WE GOT IT
even if It did NOT meet my bearish needs either

Sold out at a small loss, but expect to make it
up in spades over the next 30days
______________________________
GOLD. also reaching the PHOENIX
Jaywiz index for gold
thsday= .15
fri=.31
both bearish
30 /60/90 cycle high on NEW MOON
March 19th = 955 hi
April 6th = 872 lo
April 24= 913 hi
May22=956 hi
Next important low due May30= Moon 90 Sun
_________________________________

More Later
Jay

ALTERNATION

Propensity index NOW shows the WAY
It rises in the AM and falls in the Afternoon

UP open till 9:45 and or 11am should LEAD to SELLING and LOWER CLOSE at 4pm

Tech level of support is FIRM at 866/870 spx
that would give us a dow of 8142

As mentioned BEFORE, today is 144 tr days from Oct27th,
which was a very important turn date.
the close of Oct 27 combined a 55% of my 13 day cycle AND an 8day cycle LOW

Well guess what we have TODAY
a COMBO of the 50%/13 day cycle low & an 8day low RE VISITED
granted the 50%/13 is due at 2pm, but I did mention that cycles can be extended.

ps;
please keep in mind that I need to review about 40 different variables
BEFORE I write these reports

More Later
Jay

May 22nd

So what can we glean for tomrrow ?
good question

Power index shows a possible LATE pick up, but we really shouldnt see that after today's later recovery-
Market does prefer to ALTERNATE as Elliotters very well know.

Propens index is not quite complete for tomorrow yet so the outcome is still in question there, but it does show a STEEP decline at open
& Polarity is now negative

I will UPDATE in the AM so we will have time to know what to do;

Jaywiz index = 25 TODAY and yesterday was a 31 - both NOT extremly so , but bearish anyway.

Todays ARMS index was only 1.28
there were NO SELL signals, and so far no buy signals from the
internals generated from the daily arms index

PC ratios are not screaming much today= neutral

May 20th was an 8 day HIGH and so it was
making May21st the 9 day TURN DOWN, and so it was
May22nd is 144 tr days from OCT 27th / 4 = 36 or / 8 = 18
making it the 8day LOW point , and that means on close

as written yesterday we have some prelim data indicating a low close, but
will have better data feeds in the am
see yuh then
Jay

BEARS Rejoice

Whats NEXT?
Down as previously indicated for a low on the 22nd

How low is low?
870 = Dow under 8230
840 = Dow @ 8000

Spx hit 924.50 at 10am yesterday and fell off, Specifically AFTER the 3pm HOURLY turn
and the DOW for one Second hit above May8th high of 8588 @ 8591 yesterday

Took an extra 2 days which frustrated all bears, but NOW we have our day
HOWEVER< dont BASK in the doom & gloom
AS previously mentioned several times
GET READY TO BUY THE FRIDAY LOW OF MAY 22nd- once again- sorry Tim

Vix under 30 for 2days
Jaywiz INDEX finally came off high #s @ 31 yesterday- not a screaming sell, BUT
The previous 2 days have been above 100, and all that got was CHURNING at a high

Dow at 8590, closed at 8422 = a LOSS of 168 pts
and NOW at 9:45 am is off another 100+ pts to 8300

Theres NO doubt in my outlook that we will get under 8235 of last Friday's low
and spx under 880 of last Friday also

SO,
at a MINIMUM , we should get to the numbers posted above at 870 & 8230
And thats NOT very far from dow 8000 & 840

IN ADDITION
VHF is under 5, but IS ACTIVE during trading hours. = a down day
Activity index dropped from 200 b4 open and is now at 100
Flux shows NO activity = a down day
Power index after having been at 600 yesterday drops to 425 tomrrow

Prop index was at 3000 yesterday, and has dropped to 2989
even with the mkt attempting to rally, it never went above 3000 during the last 2 days

Note yesterday's action
10am HIGH
11am on the slide
1pm low
3pm high
You get the picture, right
did yu notice the 2pm SHARP dip on 120bars AND 126 bars at 2;30- amazing
AND of coure the 3pm TURN lower
__________________________________
Ok , i will lay out next 2 days
Today
150bars @ 10:00 was off 130 @ Dow 8295 & spx 892
now off 140 and its not yet 10;30 @ 156bars
next is
180 bars at 12;30
204bars at 2:30
and of course watch the hourly hits
11am-1pm & 3pm
_____________________________

Friday
228 b @ 10am
258b@ 12;30- could extend to the 30 bar cycle in the next series at 3pm
which is ALSO an hourly turn
S 45* V at 3;44 has a light hearted reading, but nothing after to keep it up

50% of 13 day cycle low due at 2pm would = 276 bars
or might get to 3pm at @ 30 bars in a new cycle = 290bars
And keep in mind, we have seen the 13 day cycle hit an hour early OR an hour late
depending on surrounding circumstances such as natural energy forces.

Even 312 bars at 4pm might be a truncated 329 bar cycle

________________________________
I WILL BE BUYING at 3pm, and or CLOSE tomorrow

I wont lay it out for you but there is NATURAL HIGH ENERGY ALL next week
which should lead to an END OF MONTH high at spx 940 or above

As of June1st Merc goes DIRECT and that is very consistent with market TURNS

its now 10:25am
sorry about yeterday, there was really nothing to do, but wait for the fall
THANKS for all the comments - pos & neg ones
More Later
Jay

You can SEE quite clearly from this 10day / 15 min SPX chart
that the mkt is just about ready to roll over

Look at the 3 lower studies
1. is OBV
2. is MACD
3. is Ult oscillator

more later
Jay

CURRENT VIEW

LOOKS LIKE A BACK KISS Filling the GAP from LAST week

Now that wave "A" is really complete, we should see a deeper drop in wave "B"

and MY target is STILL Friday at 2pm

ONE DAY LATE - thats going to be my new mantra
and for some one who understands the psych of aspects this is becoming un excusable
Dont worry, Ive been beating myself up without your help
high Energy dissipates after 10:23 am

Couple of details
CNBC keeps on telling us that the consensus says they are expecting a decline,
BUT Then they turn it around to say the mkt wont accomodate
which really means they think the rally will continue

TICK closed on a HIGH + 1059 = bearish
VOLUME yesterday 1.4 bil = bearish
CBOE pc ratio = 78 = bearish
SPDR = 1.42 = neutral
oex pc ratio = 1.13 = neutral
_________________________

Prop indx drops at open, but doesnt give up much later
for tomrrow, it also wants to hold its own and not give up much either
power index agrees , but gives it up on Ths & Fri

midnite hige tide tonight
New moon this wkend

Dollar and stocks seem inverted, which means that gold & stocks should track,
other than yesterday, it doesnt seem to be working - YET.

Moon 0Uranus at noon today
258bars at 10;30
30b @ 1pm
60b@ 3;30

more later
Jay

More Long term

Another LONG TERM VIEW

Unprecedented # of MONTHS under the trend line

NOT a pretty picture for long term, and supports the idea for Dow 4000 by 2012

Jay

Long term view

A LONG TERM VIEW FROM ETHAN
Thanks, Ethan

DOW 4000 by late 2011 or early 2012

Jay

Tim's latest chart

As previously MENTIONED, I am STILL looking for a PIVOT LOW on May22nd at 2pm

Tim's chat above shows a pivot low as potential on May21st at noon

We are getting much closer to each others projections !!

He also projects June2nd on another chart as a HIGh and Ive been quoting June3rd.

Not bad for 2 analysts using TOTALLY different methods to arrive at very similar conclusions

Tim, whats going on at your new website?
cant log in
Jay

Sunday Update

PRELIM data

Prop ind & power index both show Monday to be an off day
most likely to hit a low once more at 3pm, and or close
Its showing a DOWN/UP/ DOWN type day

some call it a RED day high to low

Tuesday shows a possible strong up open, but I dont have enuf data for later yet
BUT midday low possibly around noon

More Later
Jay
Ok Its now later [g} 3:30pm

times for Monday

14.6% fibo segment/13day cycle low at 9:50am
180Bars cycle low at 10:30
204bars at 12;30
228 bars at 2;30
Hourly cycle TURNS are still
11am
1pm
3pm
+- 15 min either way

Since there is an M 180*S @ 3;14, I would venture to guess the LOD at or near that time

more later
Jay

This WEEK"S GAME PLAN

latest chart from Rotrot, one of our followers
NYSE chart shows an even more dramatic turn

Amazing, one follower last week said they were leaving because my timing showed a 1pm high and 3pm low
on Tuesday - I find that VERY amusing - Why ?, you ask.
I have been at MARKET GURU for about a month, and they are already
referring to me as a ROCK STAR @ 2% top timers

BUt you read my forecasts here first

Answer this for me.
HOW MANY PEOPLE in this WORLD can forecast market direction at all
and for any period of time.
That person who left expects me to hit perfection every day,
and Intraday as well-- once again - amazing

Friday was AMAZING ALSO
Called for an open down - we got it
called for rebound - we got it
called for 2;30 low - we got it
called for last hour rebound - we got it
HOW MUCH MORE DO YOU WANT?

Just from memory
I called the Nov 21st LOW within 5minutes
called the March 9th low within 1day
Called the May8th high within a couple days
and thats ok because tops roll

Whats Next
Monday's Power index is showing only a moderately off day
and might even start with a little bounce, and its showing the 20th as the bigger down day
which matches my previous outlook for ASTRO projections

As I wrote b4, GET ready this week to take advantage of this decline,
but ALSO get ready to BUY Friday's close for next next rebound rally
the 26th is characterized as a HIGH ENERGY DAY, and it doesnt stop there

More Later
Jay
ps; i dont mean this to be bragging, but someone has to bring it up
for now we are a well hidden gem, but one day maybe you'll hear my name on CNBC
HAHAHA
Im not Charles Nenner or Arch Crawford by any means whatsoever.
just one guy trying to make a living trading and willing to share his knowledge
they say what goes around comes around - Im waiting [g}