This is TODAY at 1pmLook at how the OBV is LACKING & declining on a market that
doesnt seem to be able to hold onto its gains
MACD is rolling over also
Ultimate index is pointing south
Call me crazy but I really dont see how they can close any higher than 909, even if that
Its looking like Monday should be one of those 300 pt losses
taking the dow to 8100 & spx to 870-875
IF they do make a RUN above 909 at 3pm, call it DOOMS-DAY, and I WILL BE BUYING MORE PUTS
more later
Jay
1pm
ps; hope your keeping up with me
27 comments:
I'm here and reading jay.
thanks,
Kathy
thanks jay for the update. it helps.
sam
jay, I hear you captain!
reading and watching with eager anticipation.
well done on the calls and please keep it coming.
thanks
TT
Jay Keep up the good work Thanks Eric
Jay,
Thanks for the commentary.
Im trying to keep up.
Im hoping to go short today. If im reading the comments rightly Monday is BIG DOWN and Tuesday is a BIG UP day.
Jane
Jay
thanks for your work.
Mihaela
how is the power index now Jay? still expect up move at the close?
thanks for your update.
sam
Jay
good call finally decline came .
Thanks for sharing good work.
ckp
POWER index is a STATIONARY one
its does not change - the 5day chart is the one that has been most accurate, and it does show potential to drop off late day.
However, Im glad you asked, i was just about to report the activity index
The ACTIVITY index has NOW dropped
from a HIGH earlier of 266 to 200 at 2;45 pm
Also VHF is VERY ACTIVE and has been over 10 today = the higher the number the more bearish the effect.
remember the magic turns come at 3pm-ish;
Ive decided not to add any more shorts as I will need available cash to buy calls on Monday close
its 2:55 and they may have topped out at 2;15pm ??
heading lower as i write this
Jay
Jay:
This market still looks strong and getting stronger!!. I becoming doubtful of your short term forecast
Here is a chart of the DOW 85 % of the time during Merc Rx we go no where and the Dow will close within 1% of where it opened which was May 7
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$INDU&p=60&st=2009-05-07&i=p92877759322&a=162693632&r=700
Now we should get a direction. thanks Jay for all your work
Hello ANON
GEESH
What is getting stronger??
PRICE alone does not make a market STRONG
I had WARNEd several times that there COULD BE A HIGHER CLOSE TODAY
Just because we want it to go down doesnt mean thats my forecast.
SPX right now at 3;52 = 913
transports up 100+
GO OVER TO XTRENDS and see their latest report
I would have preferred to see the HIGH at 3pm rather than 2;15pm which led to a LOW & turn UP at 3pm -- THE HOURLY TURN
its seems you are NOT learning anything I teach.
GRRR;
more later
Im buying more shorts
Jay
Nice call on the market i think they ran all the stops above before the close today Monday is down
All failed.
We can not just trust a few indicators. Market sentiment is also vital.
I lost money on my long SP just because I thought it was a sell off warning....
jay,
you said we would have LOW at 12noon and thats EXACTLY wot we got....
you said we would have a HIGHER CLOSE and thats EXACTLY what we got.
well done!
keep it up
Jay,
Are we looking at a down day on Monday.
Thanks
Ray
ANON;
I did NOT lose ANYTHING on ny short postions !!
WHY ?
BECAUSE IS STILL OWN THEM
a 300 pt loss on Monday
will more than make up the difference
I will have a great wkend
and YES I added more at the close
Maybe you dont remember the READING for today and I posted it several times
DONT BELIEVE what you see and DONT follow the CROWD
I am looking forward to a VERY BEARY Monday
Jay
hi Jane;
Nice to hear from you ,and Kathy too
Hope you bot short on the way up
its called SCALE trading or dollar cost averaging
Its NOT easy to WAIT
Jesse Livermore once said
the hardest thing a trader must learn is ((( WAITING )))
I had a very good week long last Friday and caught the rally on Tuesday - did I worry all wkend- NOT on your life. and then caught the down day on WEd.
Im now 85% short and am I worried about Monday- NOT ON YOUR LIFE or mine for that fact
I just wont be able to take much advantage of the rebound on Tuesday
Looks like June and even july are HIGHLY volatile months
HOORAY, thats what we want
You need to have a few things to trade
MONEY, of course
patience
knowledge
and guts to pull the trigger
Jay
Jay,
Appreciate your hard work and for being kind enough to share your knowledge with all your fans.
Big Thank you to you!
Mo
Jay
Thanx for your input. I read your blog regularly and appreciate your hard work. I bought SRS and did not close at loss, hopefully your Monday analysis is correct
JAY > Have a WONDERFUL weekend my friend >> you deserve it for ALL the work you put in >>congrats for nailing the times, very impressive.
gREAT CALLS jAY. LOOKING FOR mONDAY. BOUGHT SOME SPX PUT AT 915. THANKS
SAM
At this point in time, I would concur that the last 10 minute run-up was window dressing. Surprisingly, even Fast Money traders agreed that it was not to be taken seriously.
I am not yet sure about how low we go. My range is quite wide - anywhere from 850 to 800.
I did expect 920+ either today or Monday morning. The problem is my chart shows a run down around mid-June to 767, and I am not sure if we'll go that low. So, it is possible that we go down only to 850 or so.
Target for August-September remains 1,050 or so.
Here's to the rally.
http://zerohedge.blogspot.com/2009/05/goldman-sachs-principal-transactions_29.html
Hi Jay,
I registered as a follower on disqus. I am enjoying your work.
Thanks
Reza
thanks Reza
welcome to our little corner of the world
and hello to everyone else
next week shows similar events to last week
bulls fight to stay alive and bears clawing at the door
range still seems between 880 and 920
STILL got the BEST bet for bears to make REALLY heavy $$ is going to be from the 10th to 17th
AND bulls from 18th to 24th.
other than that, its the same old same old - catch it if you can
Using the fact that in one day the mkt transverses a range, knowing the TIME of the highs and LOWS can help us make some Small gains along the way while we wait for the big score.
that may turn out to be the best way to use my projections
Use the HOURLy turns
11am - 1pm & 3pm, which ARE usually highs and down turns;
but as you see on friday, it doesnt ALWAYS work that way.
however, if a time turn acts opposite, then we need to see when the bar cycles are due
Using both can give us intraday clues and a heads up on which way the next 2 hours is going to flow
we can also combine the above with the power index which has a 3 to 7 day advance outlook, but unfortunately they vary and dont give me exactly the same picture forcing me to choose which one is more accurate over time-
THEN adding in the propensity index which is a 24hour advance look helps put it all into perspective as it did on friday
As am example,
the combo of the above gave me the noon low and higher close outlook.
if we concentrate on such flow we can catch the daily turns and make $ that way.
more later
Jay
Sounds good Jay,
looking forward to your work for coming week.
thank you!
pete
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