I posted this chart b4, but it BEARS watchingIm using it as a TEMPLATE as it also fits well with the LONG Kondratief wave that I posted b4 showing
the current time period in the WINTER of our discontent as witnessed by the market action of 2008
2008 continues till 2012 b4 it starts to rise from the 3 year winter period
What this got to do with today, you ask?
good question
The 1938 initial bottom was in April, fast forward to 2009 = March 9th
It would appear we are just about to set an initial LOW off the first rebound from March 9th, other than the April sideways triangle
This CHART also shows we are in a PRIMARY TREND REBOUND/ recovery from MARCH 9th which should make it till probably October before turning into another DOWNTREND.
______________________________________________________
OK lets talk TODAY and next week
FUTURES are pointing HIGHER-- SOOOOO WHHHAAAT !!
means nothing , UNLESS you want to SELL the OPEN - this for Bears with cash
the elevator is going DOWN thru Monday and MAYBE part of Tuesday
MY game plan is to SELL puts on Monday at close
and get ready to buy calls- its also EXPIRATION WEEK
astro is a bearish for monday
A little bearish for Tues
and mostly positive thru the 19th
I posted the entire month previously
Propensity index drops to a pivot low at close today
power index = ditto & lower for Monday- numbers posted b4
Full moon = Scorpio/Taurus - not a good combo for bulls
more later
Jay
9:30am
24 comments:
Thanks Jay for the update this morning. It answers my question from last post. Also thanks to JW wannabe fo his/her reply.
Kathy
guess we see the botom of the trendcahannel on monday:
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID1399335
so thursday was wave A down, friday is wave B up, monday is wave C down.
Then up to new highs
Ok Kathy
Yes anon
a bad close today should setup Monday for the kill zone
Activity index came off a high of 400 at the open to a low of 200 and is now running flat at 233
210 bars at 3:30 pm Yesterday=lod
that low allowed the mkt to run up for YES looks like a "B" wave
up 122Dow at 9:55am
Then the 228B cycle low at 10:30
dow up only 50pts.
Hourly next high at 11;00 to 11;15
RIGHT NOW as I type this comment
dow UP 100
258bars at 1pm = conflict with hourly which is customarily a high
but can invert anytime there is an outside influence.
in between, we have at noon, moon 150 mars = angry reactions
heading down as I write this at 11;30, now up 80.
yes , today is under the influence of a full moon - which appears to have some negative overtones, but as always, full moons have been energizing for stocks so we are in conflict unless the effects are felt AFTER the full moon, thus Monday gets the FULL BRUNT
THIS TIME I WILL HOLD ALL DAY Monday till JUST B4 the CLOSE- Generally it is not good to trade after close unless you are willing to take mkt price.
Its well known by almost every trader that the 2 days after the full moon are usually DOWN. They know very well how to play that one.
More Later
Jay
McLaren comment
http://www.mclarenreport.net.au/articles/articles/209/1/May-08-2009-CNBC-SquawkBox-Europe/Page1.html
Ive re-read Monday & Tuesday
and they are BOTH heavily NEGATIVE
So, no matter HOW they close today we can expect Monday AND Tuesday to get hit
here's some of the readings
Monday
Today you will PAY THE PIPER
expect TURMOIL
$ fluctuates
Unwelcome NEWS & a mini crisis
_____________________
Tuesday
Turmoil Continues
Morning Bad moods
serious disagreements
Afternoon Extremes
___________________
Wed
Expect a work or career BOOST
FULL STEAM AHEAD
_________________
Ths
Ok to shoop
Today will feel like an UPPER
SMOOTH SAILING
___________________
Friday
Socialize and enjoy the day
More Later
Jay
It could be possible that your timing is off and the full moon effect is felt Monday as a spring board. I don't see us dropping Monday at this point. You saw last Monday as a down day too and that was way off.
monday is down
Best,
8
Monday is down just like last Monday was a cycle low? We'll see. I think it's important to see whole market's day before making any predictions.
Jaywiz has such a good track record that one monday wrong equals next monday right :-)
Very true, Jay does have a good track record. I have been following him for more than 8 years, and I'll give him a 90% accuracy.
That 90% always makes me want to come and visit his blog.
Pauline
Followed this link from Xtrends. That Atilla guy is delusional probably smoking too much crack. I'm guessing you are his dealer and have been smoking the profits.
thanks for the laugh.
Hello Jay, Im new to this Blog...just found you...Please could you (or any veterans of this blog) give your thoughts on going short this afternoon? Im new to trading but looking at your analysis today it seems to say youre expecting Monday and Tuesday to be down..correct? Thanks
I think this is how someone dies by a thousand cuts. You know the market is in rally mode for a while but you try and trade too many swing shorts and end up getting nickel and dimed to death in losses. I think it's time to change strategies and perceptions if I want to make some serious coin here.
Alfred B
I think it's time to give up on this blog. With all due respect Jay I need a break from following others anyway. I have a nice mechanical system that I want to start trading where the percentage a year is in the mid to high hundreds. It's boring but it's unemotional, cold and effective. I think we as traders like to see quick instantaneous results when we trade and try to think a little too hard at times that we really out-think ourselves. the simplest method is the best. I don't know where we go Monday or tuesday. Maybe it's best I don't even try. Just let the system triggers tell me when to go. Oh yea and another thing. We relly love to see how close to the top or bottom we can place a trade and that really can kill you in the end. I think that's when it becomes gambling. i know i know. Use stops etc, etc, etc, and I do but there's got to be a better way and there is.
rickybobby
I think you said no recovery on Friday and also that Friday would be down into Monday and then rebound. So far, your calls have been good fades all week especially last Monday. Maybe your power index is upside down like chartsedge gets sometimes. So now Tuesday's down? Maybe you should take a break.
SPX -- A NEW HIGH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! THIS IS INSANE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
DOW 38000 HERE WE COME!!!!!!!!!!!
SNORT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Humble1
now that Jay's being mocked or dissed, I think he'll be vindicated by a major tank job next week.
Steve
im new and im here to learn. heard some good things about Jay. People should be respectful to others and make constructive comments please.
Still seeing Monday as down jay? That was a pretty bullish close for the week.
Jay have you considered massively compressing time frames when looking to and using such a chart, as moves occur and play out exponentially faster in today's market.
Use Sept. 19, 2008 in place of your first point of reference: Crash(began mid-August, 1937)
Use Nov. 21, 2008 in place of your point of reference:
Initial bottom (April, 1938)
And finally use Mar. 6, 2009 in place of your point of reference:
Ultimate bottom (April, 1942)
Personally, I think we're already out of the woods and the bull is back and your "We are here" point of reference is waaay off target and will probably result in the death of many bears if followed.
What is the point of trying to cash all the little dips when the market has been mostly up for over 2 months?
I don't get it.
More I might barbecued for -
How many of you got in on the low & have ridden it ever since?
(I got in before the 9th, but sold a lot around 880)
I know Jay missed2 of the big up moves early
What wll you think if we get above the 200 day MA - do bear market rallies ever get above the 200 day ? I would think it would be rare
It's driving me nuts to leave such gains on the table. Doesn't this bother some of you ?
steve70,
Like I said, that's why I switching to MA mechanical system next week. I'm tired of discretionary trading. It's too tiring trying to predict all the turns. It's also tiring reading other people's blogs. You get caught up in someone else's expectations. Plays with the mind ever so subtle. I find it hard trading with trend too. You want to go against it all the time instead of going with the flow. I don't know why it is. All i knoow is I've got to overcome this mentel block.Hence the system.
rickybobby
The Astro for the first part of the week says bearish here's a chart that could support that.
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SPX&p=5&yr=0&mn=0&dy=5&i=p60504341891&a=164884971&r=762
Also we are over bought and most charts show at or near resistance. Can we go through all that and move up sure Markets don't care about the lines i draw. but most times it does say we are close. I went short at the close. In any case a consolidation here at best. Here is a long term view of the spx. A move to the 20 EMA would be a good place to short the market.On the Monthly time frame, My views.
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SPX&p=M&st=1980-12-09&i=p60824014187&a=156384727&r=438
ASTRO8 Sunday Morning 8:43 am
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