May1st should linger all day till 3pm when a sharp retreat should
close the day lower leading to the May4th low as below
May4th is 108 tr days from Nov 20th and offers a market LOW
HOW low ?/ possibly spx 840 - 845
May5th offers a PIVOT day which should take off AFTER 2pm
why 2pm = 50% of the 13 day cycle Low
May6th - big rally continues
Thats as far as my power & propensity indexes takes me for now
UNLIKE some ELLIOTT technicians, I do NOT see a sharp decline to
spx 800 at this time
After the Low on Monday the mkt should continue its march higher
and once above 878 with volume, it should make it to its next resistance
at 909.
more later
Jay
6 comments:
good morning Jay.
imo, Your comments wrt Idris should be posted as a separate post by you. It is buried under the "Chrysler" comments and easily lost.
Your dates are interesting -
your "ying" is may 16 (saturday)
yang is may 20 (wednesday)
Saturn turns direct on May 16 and McHugh has May 20 as a phi date.
to continue from my last post -
Merriman states -
"With Jupiter fast approaching its conjunction to Neptune in late May through mid-July, there is a geocosmic basis for thinking that any decline right now may hold above those lows of March 6-10, and then be followed by another rally to higher highs."
This is consistent with the EW that I am following and another good chartist I follow has mid July/early August as a major cycle turn.
challo
As I commented earlier, Re Elliot Waves, when the intra-day hi on April 29 exceeded the i-d hi of April 17th; it invalidated the earlier count of an a big A= (A),(B) (C) from March 6 to April 17 with the (C) therein as an ending diagonal. The invalidation canceled the 780-800 target that went with it.
The top count at EWI now calls Apr 2 hi as end of (C), and an A,B, C, D , E ending at April 28 bottom at 847.12. And wave 1 of the next big up move starting from there, which likely finished yesterday at 888.45. This count will change if we go below 847.12 as Jay apparently expects, or allows for, by Monday.
Such change in count may simply change how A, B, C, D, E is counted and make the new point E on Monday morning lower than April 28 low of 847.12, but by not much.
Doesn't look like the 3:00 selloff happened after all.
It hasn't been a good couple weeks for bears.
Steve70
wow, lots of good comments
Challo, I outlined the aspects and what they mean in a previous post and comment to answer IDris what to expect
from Sun 90 Jupiter , and I expanded on that up thru the Jup/npte conj
And I agree with Merriman that the spx will not break to a lower low this year.
Ive already written to expect the spx to get above 1000 possibly late this summer
Ravi,
Sounds just right - wave count tricky right here until we see more unfold. Ibo agrees also.
steve, mkt did sell off after 3pm, but I did not have the most current propensity when I wrote that, and it bounced LAST MINUTE
as did the mkt
NOW whats NEXT
That puts the BURDEN squarely on
MONDAY and then Tuesday AM for the pivot & TURN
Media says spx 875 has been breached, thus its NOW off to
the moon - HOW STOOPID they are, and what a great testimonial to a sentiment sell signal
More later
Jay
Hi Jay, it's Tim. Just saying hello.
Next week is going to be tough, at least I'm good with a 5/6-7 high
but there is a down move at the
very end of the week, and probably into next Monday. It sounds like a lot to get done in one week and I wasn't thinking about a Monday the 4th low.
We'll see how the 5/4 low idea works but for sure it should be up on Tues and Weds.
This low that would mostly hit on the 8th and 11th looks most severe for the NDX but of course will have an effect in the SPX.
I'm also thinking the transition from the 6th high into 8th low is going to be a fast move. Very difficult to trade if trapped by a reversal bar. I don't know why, I'm worried about this high. The moves in the individual stocks, small and midcap, belie the indices. Some of these could get hurt from way up there as they are.
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