May can provide a high of significance
I DONT THINK it will be a TOP of significance
which means I dont see a return to spx 666 anytime this year
2011/2012 more probable
but in between we get lots of volatility
As you already know, Im looking for SPX 940 by Friday
Tim's Chart shows a high on May 22nd, but MY work suggests we will be
coming off that high on the 18th and more so on the 20th and 22nd
into the new moon time zone.
_________________________________________
OK, SO Whats Next
WE NOW have the POTENTIAL for Morning SELL OFF in reverse
of my previous interpretation, which was based on a sell off at 3pm or close today.
Tomrrow, opens DOWN, recovers, and sells off again till 3pm
then heads for spx 940 by Friday
more later
Jay
28 comments:
Hi Jay,
Im new here. Thanks for your efforts with this blog.
Please could you explain the chart on todays blog?...im not sure which index it refers to.
Thanks Jay.
Hi Jay, thanks for posting my chart. The recent work is on my site now, anyone can get a free week access to the forecasts from the home page. There was a couple bugs yesterday getting it going but appears well now. The long term NDX is in there to Nov and I'll have the SPX long term up tomorrow.
http://www.stockcyclestrading.com
Tim
Waterfall, the Sample page on my site explains some background. The system has really never failed, although I have improved it along the way. It will be quite a surprise to everyone if May 21-22 is a high. I am aware that it will fail sometime and be prepared but it just hasn't yet.
Hi Tim,
Thats fantastic! thanks for your response. I will look at your site now.
Thanks for your comments Tim.
Tim, I have been watching your system for a while..Thanks for the updates Eric
Good luck with that 940 call. Your right about the May Top. It was May 8th. Stop thinking too hard and look at what the market is showing. The ndx has already broke trend 2 days ago and look at the transports. The other indexes will follow very soon. Sorry, there is no way we'll hit 940. While you're waiting for that, you'll miss out on the best shorting opportunity in a long while.
x
Thanks X
You may be right
but tomrrow should attempt to make new 2009high
Remember I wrote ATTEMPT
And I thank everyone else for their great comments
Yes 940 may be just a dream this week - 929 does have strong resistance
My work suggests rallies will be anemic and brief -poor volume
& Adv/Decl
Looks like a MAY top may or might be building as they usually ROLL a bit and CHURN at the top before giving it up.
In that regard, it means NEXT WEEK
will SHOW the TRUE colors of this market
Ive GOT May 22nd, SORRY Tim, as a SHORT term LOW into the NEW moon with the 25th as a holiday.
More later
Jay
Hi Jay,
This correction has been pretty flat so far. No steep sell-off. It's amazing how many people are crying in their cheerios already, yet it still looks very positive, positive enough to make another attempt at a high, like you said. I absolutely agree about next week. Where the next high lands is the key and then ofcourse the decline afterwards, from what price and what time.
Great work Jay
Kathy
Nice site Tim, watching 5/22
Kathy- You are exactly correct
A correction may have already started from the March 9th low to the May 8th high, and as already pointed out, the NASDAQ is Very weak, and now the Dow & SPx are following.
ONE MORE RALLY tomrrow should set the stage for an EXTENDED drop into MAY 22nd, again sorry TIm.
What about today? you ask.
lets review yesterday first
LOD HIT at 1pm @ 156 BARS exactly.
the 180 bar cycle low was insignificant @ 3pm, but did allow the rally to continue to 3;30
Today we have an OPEN low which I projected as likely given the strong close after 3pm ,NOW extending lower.
the 204bars low hit a little earlier than 10;30
Next is 228 bars and thats
a match to yesterdays 120 bars at 12;30
THE spx did indicate WEAKNESS yesterday as it was way behind the dow.
As of 11;30, MY activity index is FLAT and has been ALL DAY so far
at the 66 level, only one step above the lowest @33.
Then there is a 3:22 Moon 120 Saturn which we would expect the mkt to rally up to.
BUT after are 2 negative aspects
this is tricky, but the power index shows a rally end of day, but it could just as easily be tomrrow at open as its right on the dividing line.
this is how we might see it
IF we CLOSE off the lows today, then tomorrow could open sluggish
and take off after 10:30 where the 13 day cycle low resides.
power index suggest a STRONG rally tomrrow topping on friday AM
then giving back some the rest of the day.
ps; to new here
Welcome and please do register as a follower
I certainly hope you find my prognostications useful, and please make some money
More Later
Jay
its now 11:50am
Activity index JUST bumped UP to 133
from the 66 level, and there is usually a 30 minute delay
so, a LOW at noon to 12;15 should abate and start upward to that 3;22 time slot as previously mentioned
Jay
its 2;30pm
dynamic index is hovering at its lowest levels
And
Im waiting for 258bars at 3pm
Could be the LOD
one caveat
tomrrow am has the 13 day cycle pivot at 10:30am, which could offer a sloppy start, or a brief pull back off a jump start but the other indexes are still quite positive for the day
Jay
Looks like there's no low at noon or at 3:00pm. The breadth is way too negative. 940 or 930 is not looking good for Friday. If we close near the lows today, it will get very ugly tomorrow.
x
get ready to buy the bouynce tomorrow morning. we're at huge support and we'll bounce no doubt.
willy
Hey X,
Can you quantify 'ugly' please?
Thanks.
My work says Wednesday finishes down. May 22 is an entertaining thought.
It's important to keep an open mind with trading. Just because you're "power index" calls for a rally tomorrow, doesn't mean it will happen. This index has been way wrong at times. With various indexes closing at support, tomorrow could gap down and not look back. That's what happened w/ the ndx. The tape is showing this as a very good possibility.
x
X,
Although we could keep going down, it is not unreasonable to expect a bounce somewhere in 880-875 range and have 15-20 points up in the next couple of days.
That action would actually be quite bearish if it goes up on lower volume.
Shankar, that's very possible. The tape tells me we go down more tomorrow to possibly the 860-870 range before reversing. Now the key is how much do we bounce. It can be really weak or strong. Either way, it's best to stay short. I've been short since last Friday on a clear signal, because my studies told me 920-940 was a good top to short from. Now that I'm near the bottom of the channel, I'm still short w/ a stop in case I'm wrong. Even if we bounce, unless my stop is hit, I'm riding this as far as it will go for now. I think odds favor shorting still even after 3 down days. You have to block out all the noise and stay the course unless we go sideways. The transports are very telling imo. Markets like this usually take the stairs up, but the elevator down. Again, I repeat, there is no way we're hitting 940 Friday. That should be obvious by now.
x
Actually, I did some post market analysis. So, I agree we'll bounce, but not sure how much. I sold most of my shorts in afterhours. It's time to take profits and manage my next trade. But, I haven't changed my opinion of where I think we're heading. Clearly the trend has probably changed. Depending on the close tomorrow and also given it's opex Friday coming up, should determine your next entry.
x
We should reverse late tomorrow. When she trends, boy she trends hard and she doesn't wait for latecomers.
Saskia
If the SPX takes out the May 1 lows then there will be NO new highs. Maybe 3 days up?... and then watch out below because if you made good money the last 3 days, the next 2 weeks down will blow you away.
Saskia
If the SPX takes out the May 1 lows TOMORROW.......is what I should have specified.
Saskia
Jay and others,
Is the recent strength in gold price a headfake or has something changed? (geo-political, currency policy, etc.)
Does oil trend with gold?
Thank you very much Jay.
x,
next time you want to grace this blog with your presence , let us know your position in advance so we can judge the skill of your trading. Otherwise you're just another chump who makes it all up looking in the rear view mirror. I dare you to make a call before it happens. You're a loser.
btw. good call today? not.
ttboy
Guys, I'll make a call on the market.
This down leg will end around Dow 7400, before the next up-leg bull rally starts again.
It should take about a month or so, kinda blends in with Jay's time frame.
Pauline
Thanks Eric and Movado, I appreciate any feedback or recommendations on the site. The webmaster did a real good job, just a couple minor bugs the first day.
He said we're off the chart on hits for the first week and google won't start hitting the site for a few more weeks. Of course to be successful the information has to be right. And now for the site launch finding this high is proving difficult!
I think the May 22 high is off now as a result of the Tue-Wed drop, in SPX the high is moving into early June. NDX is the trouble with short term cycles down. So I put up a chart of 130 min short cycles on the site today because this is the difficulty, to find the NDX low. I probably will update that each morning until we nail that down. The big NDX drop on Weds actually helps the calculations by focusing the cycles' low anchor. It's just moving a little each day, today moved the low forward from 5/25 to 5/22 because it was an up day and that helps focus some componentes to the weds low. That's a good thing to move the low closer. I'm thinking now we have A down, doing a-b-c up in NDX to top on Monday, and then nail the low mid week, then up to early June. June corrects back in all timeframes and then it should be up to Mid July with the large scale cycles. And typical for opex max pain, they'll hold it down to 2:30 and then it might close up. An up close tomorrow would do alot for anchoring these problem short cyle lows in NDX.
I always pick up a bottoming stock on opex day. I'm looking for CVD tomorrow.
If the magnitude of the large cycles play out true it may be up huge but I don't really count on the system for magnitude, mostly time.
I dont like the look of June, trending down gradually, I guess I'll buy an expensive stock to sell calls and collect premium in June. Puts are no good in a slow drift because of the premium drain.
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