Monday, May 04, 2009

Morning UPDATE

its 9am on May4th

Heres a 29 year SEASONAL GOLD chart from Moore Research
clearly shows a Typical FEB High and August LOW

Gold should make a LOW under 850 this week as stocks rally
and hold thru the full moon on Friday

back to stocks
without going into all the detail surrounding my outlook,
here is a SUMMARY.

This morning it doesn't appear from futures that they are
going to plunge at the open as Charts Edge has proposed
BUT it could be tomrrow, or thru 10:30 at 258 bars
and again there is a 50%/13 day cycle at 2pm

My propensity index for TODAY shows the potential for a moderate rise
in the morning, but ENDING on the DAY"S LOW, and that matches well
with ASTRO

Tomrrow could start on a down trend, but should end on the upside leading to
a strong rally on Wed and Thursday

Friday appears to be a STALEMATE

other than today and part of tomrrow,
A stronger setback appears on hold till NEXT WEEK

More Later


Anonymous said...

chartsedge is like flipping a coin

Jay Strauss said...

He really needs to adjust his criteria again

Rally so far as indicated
It should give way to profit taking later

We'll see now if gold follows equities this week or if it contra

Natural energy still calls for short 7 sharp dip NOW


Anonymous said...

today is a strong strong uptrend day. should end on or near highs of day. tomorrow will open strong and start to decline by midday. It has begun a new cycle today but I won't mention which one because I hear no one talking about what I use. I can't understand why anyone would follow a map or a fixed type of system that galvanizes a bias before they trade. A trader should be like water and use strictly indicators for buying and selling and not a horoscope or map or preset times blindly. C'mon people. Wake up.


Anonymous said...

The market was up on friday and it looks like it going to be up Monday today

Oh well...Lets see Back to the drawing board

Anonymous said...

wrt chartsedge

Jay said "He really needs to adjust his criteria again"

so do you Jay.

Jay Strauss said...

Mao, thanks for your comments
My indicators are quite diverse and encompass very different phenomena

and MY Activity index which UPDATES every 5 minutes is NOW trending DOWN

it opened the day on the UPSIDE from a level of 100 to a higher level at 200, NOW dropped back to
100 at 11:30am
this index is scaled from 33 at the lowest to 500 at the highest


Anonymous said...

Thanks for all your contributions Jay. Do you still see a drop from now until close?


Jay Strauss said...

should turn down after 3pm

2day/ 1min chart
OBV is struggling to stay at higher levels achieved at 11am & Macd rolled over at 10am

Sun 120 Saturn overnite and Midnite low tide inverted
might hold it up today, but 3pm should still start down,and this time the Propensity index has no FLAG/upleg to effect it like Friday at 3;30.

There was a 204bar cycle low at 12:30 and there was a minor dip.

next is 228 bars @ 2;30
and 258 bars tomrrow at 10:30

Tomrrow's read says be flexible acclimate & expect disagreements

Activity index is holding at the 100 level. Im guessing that its holding the price at a level.
it bumped up to 133, but now back to 100

the POWER indx does start out the day at 450, and ends the day at 400 thus we should expect little change in price, but lower never the less
Tomrrow it starts out LOWer at
375 and gets as low as 325
it ranges from 200 to 800

Wed is the KEY to this week on the POWER index
it JUMPS to 600/700 area, and holds that level for 2days

On Friday is DROPS like a stone to 400 then 350

I had anticipated Fridays full moon to hold price levels high, but it doesnt look that way
it occurs near midnite.
Its Scorpio and Taurus thus
it reads restrictive for investments

More Later
2:20pm on Monday

Anonymous said...

This mkt is not going down. YOU should recheck your work Jay.

Mkt continues to climb even with your propensity index lacking the "upleg".

This mkt is going higher without a ton of people who have all gone short.


Anonymous said...

Nice call Mao.


Pauline said...

I for one had gone short "Big-time" last friday, even though my chart said to be careful.
HOPEFULLY, tomorrow will be a better day, for us traders.

Time for a good drink!
Cheers, it's only money!


Ravi said...

Because of the EWI wave count, I too saw the hi probability of big up today. based on that, I covered my short position at Friday close but did not enter long position because that wave count was not in synch with Jay's timing work.

Looks like the up move (C) that Jay was expecting after a drop early this week started at last Friday morning low.

Superbear said...

Shorted over 900 and 8,400.

Short-term top already set in or probably tomorrow.

Expect a trip down to 780-800 by the end of the month/early June for consolidation before it does another moon shot to 1,050-1,150 by August/September.


Anonymous said...$SPX&p=60&st=2009-03-16&i=p48332942463&a=164040990&r=910

Went short at the end of the day. We are close to the top of the range. Yes we can go higher and i don't expect a large pull back from here. short term but I think Shankar is right on. And for the large part Jay has been too. Its about probabilities and if you post after the fact I guess your always right. Jays indicators give a great heads up. But trade what the market is telling you.
Monday 8:24 EST

steve70 said...

Why do market timers always favor the short side?

Right now, almost all market timers I follow incl Larry T have really missed this up move.
(I'm about 60% long, having sold most in the 870 - 880 area)

Why is this? Does the psyche of the timer prefer the short side or what explains it?

Jay, you're a great market timer, but IMHO, you've really missed the last week.

Is there any explanation?


Anonymous said...

Jay, according to your power index, you're still expecting a rally tomorrow and Wednesday? Seems like we already rallied today and your indicators may be a little late. We're hitting the top of a short term channel. Are you expecting much higher than 907? I shorted today's close so I'm wondering. Thanks.


Anonymous said...

astro8: who is posting after the fact? Perhaps you're just jilted because none of your calls are working out. Go back and find a new method and stop shilling for Jay. He's a big boy and doesn't need a hand to hold. Who are you trying to fool here? Sheeeeesh.


Anonymous said...

astro8: another thing....I don't like cheering sections. The only way a trader is going to get better is by using objectivity as a means to hone one's understanding and skills in trading. Iron sharpen iron. That doesn't mean we start bashing each means we challenge and contribute individual thinking and not fell good consensus opinion that is conducive to herd behaviour and robotic repetitious mind control. Ofcourse if you work for government or your a priest or a paster you promote that sort of manipulation and ignorance. But we are traders and represent free, creative thinking individuals who treasure our sovereign independance from those tyrants who would subjugate us through fear, lies and peer pressured majority opinion that only creates dumb, gullible, CNN watching sheep.


astro8 said...

Sorry if i offended you Mr. Bobby I guess its the traders that just come to bash with nothing to offer that draws my attention.

I have been looking for price to hit the Apex of the former rising wedge.$SPX&p=60&yr=0&mn=2&dy=0&i=p32718311989&a=162778891&r=760

I do agree with you on your cheering section. I don't have my pom pom's out The cheering section says to go long.

Good luck to you

Say hi to A.J.