Heres a chart from Ibo, one of our followers
This clearly shows what ive written several times
As a trader the hardest thing we have to learn is WAITING
Hadik recently wrote that June8th is the earliest the mkt could turn down,
and expects a bottom on or about the 12th
Ibo's dates concur with the above as do mine, HOWEVER,
****we are both targetting June8th and 17th*********
__________________________________________________________
CURRENTLY
WE have a market churning at a high at or near the Jan6th SPX high of 934
Dow has been well below its Jan6th high of 9035, but managed to get near 8600.
HIGHS as we all know take time to FINISH all components-- in other words, THEY ROLL
Unlike bottoms which CLIMAX all at once or within a day of each other as indeces
YES, sometimes do a bounce and drop, but thats another story for another time.
My recent comments reflect ibo's chart above, and thus we must be aware of a range bound mkt
until such time as it falls off the cliff's edge,
AND IMO, that will be from June10th to 17th with the
MAJOR EMPHASIS on June 15 - 17 th;
NOW, we have many options to choose from as how to take advantage of that expected dive.
If your a BULL, you can wait till June17th, sell the farm and buy stock
or if a bear, its obvious you want to be short on June10-12
And a trader can catch both sides, short on the 12th- long on the 18th
NOW, the other end of those trades can be relatively short lived, so dont expect a
MOON shot no matter how good it looks come June 24th- this mkt is NOWHERE
clear of the woods for at least 2 more years
remember we are in the WINTER of the LONG
Kondratief wave
which I posted a couple times
_____________________________________________
As for this week, Ibo also see's a high on the 55 td cycle on the 26th,
and IMO, intraday of the 27th with a possbile run on spx 940 thus
failing an attempt to break out above the Jan6th high.
May 26-27 = 55 tr days from March 6 & 9th (LOW TO HIGH)
the intertia high was 7days later which now = June4th
IMO< translates to June 3rd ,which is an 8day turn date for me.
June3rd date has come up frequently with Tim McCarthy also
____________________________________________
BUT for now we must LEARN to TRADE the mkt,
& not sit on our long or short positions.
More Later
Jay
22 comments:
Hi Jay this is much clearer. thanks. Do you have a feelings that we may touch 875-878 first before trying 920-940?
I plan to cash the shorts, if we gap down to lock in the profits and get better entry later. If we break 875-865 then may be trailing stop.
great work jay.
sam
Oh, I forgot to ask you. where do you post the numbers for index indicators?
sam
HI Sam,
I dont always present those levels but presently the Propensity index seems to be out of sync with a BIG one day rally today
starts at 2999, down from 3002
moves back up to 3001
then takes a big drop to 2991
closes the day at 2994
Accordingly we should then get
a mild lower open, and the futures at 9am are off 40 dow pts
a recovery to maybe a little on the plus side, but the BIG move for the day should NOW be DOWN from about 11am to 3pm with a moderate rebound on the close
The Power index agrees with the above
AND THe BIGGER UP DAY NOW becomes tomrrow May27th in direct contrast to my previous outlook as well as Charts Edge
BUT a run on spx 940 doesn't seem likely either
GOLD on the DECLINE this week
more later
Jay
120 bars could be the LOD at 3pm, and or 126 bars @ 3;30
And Yes, Sam
it looks like 878 first before a rally tomrrow, but 940 looks too far away
Your strategy looks good if we start out lower by 9:45 -10am
I will be buying short between 10 and 11am and will sell them at 3 to 3;30pm
today
Jay
Today's natural energy indicates a HOD at 1pm, then the propensity index appears to show a sell off to 3 -3;30
the lower open was very brief as natural energy for the better part of today has positive output
Sam, I will be selling short at 1pm today
and most likely will close out that position at 3 to 3;30
BUT there are indications of a possible lower open tomrrow also before rebounding to near 500,
but gives back to 350 by days end
thus leading to the
28th which has NEG tendencies on the power index which drops to 250 by days end and spilling over to the 29th at the 250 level BUT it ends the day back at 450
that should give us the nature of
the cycles this week
NOW its 10am and I am elated with the dow at +77pts
Jay
Lack of Comments today indicate a lower day
Its now 9:50am and the dow is on
the plus side by 9pts
Jay
Hit support at open at rocketed off, never to look back
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID1399335
a2
have a look at volume over the last several months. A major divergence.
a2
Hi jay, thanks for the update. I did added shorts to my position at 905. let us see what happens. looking for 3-3;30 pm lod.
tHANKS AGAIN. YOUR CALLS HAVE BEEN GOOD IN TERMS OF DIRECTION.
sAM
i SAW NEG DIVERGENCE THIS MORNING. IT SHOULD GO DOWN SOON.
WHAT IS YOUR DOWNSIDE TARGET FOR TODAY? OR DO YOU GO BY TIME ONLY FOR THE DAY?
SAM
Sam
I Mostly use TIME
bot short at 12;35 & 12;45
Dow up 205 & spx BANGING on 909-910
natural energy SHiFTS at 1:09pm
Its NOW 1:08pm
HOD
Jay
Jay, i agree with you. this is the HOD. i see mega neg. divergence here. Added more puts. should see some fireworks here soon
sam
what s your LOD target?
sam
Activity index holding STEADY at 2:15pm
Might be 3pm turn dow again
Sometimes I think I can count the simplest thing like 2 1/2 hours
GHEESH
Recalculated the 120bar cycle at 4pm
which means the last 30 minutes today is VULNERABLE
Jay
Jay
thanks for your work.
are you still expecting a new high tomorrow (even if we sell off at the close today)?
waterfall
NEW HIGH ??
I certainly doubt it
when spx 909 breaks down today
it will set up one more shot to break above which should FAIL to HOLD, even if it supercedes it, thus taking us to a tradeable low mid day on 29th.
Jay
Jay, your timing is perfect. we strted move down 5 minutes early. good job.
would you hold the shrts here and hedge for tomorrow for the limited up move?
sam
I'm looking to finish down Wednesday, Jay.
3:30
activity index just started DOWN
and so did the mkt at 3pm
Its hard to tell if they will open down again tomorrow
But any rally after the open can be sold
Will have more detail later
Jay
Hi Jay,
I am holding FAZ, SKF and SRS any thoughts on it tomorrow. Do you see going to 875 or under this week.
Ray
Jay, same position as Ray above.
sam
Jay -
Really good calls today.
I get a little frustrated at times when the market doesn't cooperate with the game plan.
I also have one more philosophy - if a move isn't at least going to be at least 2 - 3%, I'd rather sit it out.
There is a risk in trading and taking small gains can come back to haunt you if a big move goes against you, even with stop losses.
I did place the Friday buys about 15 minutes early but when your life takes you out of town about 15 minutes before the low, that's just how it goes sometimes.
Today was amzing.
Steve70
Today is selling time on rise - Major corrections in commodity markets, Dollar will be one man show from here..get out from index and metal stocks.. Wednesday, May 27, 2009
Dear Members,
Finally, Yesterday our wave of nature theory gave indication of bottom out US dollar though it gave up all gains after economy data released but still we are very much sure that dollar is moving ahead from today. We will experience one of sharp recovery in USD from here 80.17 so those who remained away from dollar shouldn't miss this opportunity of buying. Sell Euro and Swiss Franc and commodity currencies.
Tuesday is the day of Mars, and we expect sharp fall in commodities from here. In the next fifteen days gold, silver, grains, oil and other commodities should fall around 18 to 28%. Take this opportunity of trading as these kind of trading opportunity doesn't come again quite often.
Stock Market will top out today, sell all major indexes, sell metals and commodities stocks. We are expecting 8 to 12% fall in all major market in the next two weeks.
At the time writing this update gold is trading at:
Gold $950, silver at $14.52, copper $2.1280, Platinum 1145 (should fall 8% with in a week)
Oil is at $62.48, Heating oil $1.5420 and RB gas $1.8630 (should fall 15% in ten days)
Soybean at $1190, wheat $614 and bean oil at $3780 (Should fall 20% in three weeks)
Dow is at 8475 and other markets are yet to open but take a opportunity of selling (sharp correction around 10% in two weeks)
US DOLLAR Index is trading at $80.18 (we expect 83.80 during this week)
Euro is at 1.3970, Australian 0.7844, Canadian 0.8960, Swiss Franc 0.9217 (all these currencies should fall more than 5% during this week)
Thirty year bond is at 118.15, our target is to reach 123.80 in the next ten days.
We believe in our theory without any doubt of even 1% so time has come for traders to build position aggressively.
Thanks & God Bless
Mahendra Sharma, 26 May, 6.30 AM, Mumabi - India
www.mahendraprophecy.com
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