Jaywiz Index still quite low @ .21 indicates more selling most likely on Monday.
However, there is conflict with that data as the CBOE pc ratio = 1.40
why is that important? you ask - Mondays ratio was 1.48 which led to the 417 pt rally on the 11th.
Vix is 31.16 which is another conflict and is considered by most technicians to be an oversold signal. Also noticed the option volumes are quite a bit higher than usual- not sure how to categorize that info
And of course we have the fed meeting on the 17th where a .75bp rate cut is priced into the markets. getting that cut should help the dow get back to 12,300. and spx to 1333/1344
Gravitational effect for the 18th is negative for stocks, and could hold down the rally till the 19th, but either day could provide a roller coaster ride
Best Wishes
Jay
2 comments:
It sure looks like the 18th will hold the key for direction of TREND. Monday should be up but do we trend up to the 20th or down to the 20th? hmmm... Can't wait to see. Either way this 2nd phase cycle of the 22 week cycle has more pressure pushing it down than the previous one which is as left translated as you can get without breaking the Jan 23 low. The probablities for more decline is VERY high and we're teetering on the edge. Bulls are dreaming right here and holding on to a false hope of bullish bias. Bottoming is a process not an event as Brian Shannon would say. The process should begin May and June before we rally with conviction. Good trading to ya sir.
patient putting
The PANIC is Here!!!!!!!!!
The next 5 days will be straight down!!
Yeeeeehaaaaaahh
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