Thanks Rotrot -couldn't resist showing it here
hope its ok with you
Bears giving up too soon
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Some additional features
April 16th = 248 tr days from April14, 2008 LOW
Apr 16 = a Bradley date
Apr 16 = 60 tr days from Jan 20 LOW = 15 cycles of 4 or 8cycles of 8
Apr 16 = 29cycles of 4 = 116 tr days from oct27th LOW
April 18th = a Bradley date
It would appear the MAIN cycle LOW is April 16th
Jan 6 to 20th the dow lost 1000 pts
Not saying we get that, but ive already put out some math
April 16 is 8 day LOW
Apr 17 is 8 day TURN
More Later
Jay
52 comments:
When you said a Sunday update, you weren't kidding. Thanks for all your hard work.
Alvin
I'm lookiing for a scalp long here, but waiting for trigger confirmation. Then short the small rally some more.
Alvin
Nice work, Jay.
TA Pather says we finish down tomorrow.
Coy,
What is TA Pather?
Down tomorrow, Tuesday?
Thank.
Tai
Armstrongs latest update
http://www.yousendit.com/transfer.php?action=batch_download&batch_id=UmNJbGtJWlQ1UjRLSkE9PQ
Anon,
Yeah, Tuesday.
TA Pather is history based quazi-neural network proprietary trading system designed to be predictive, next day’s close, up or down. I checked and it’s calling tomorrow’s close from 2008.
Thank you, anon person, that posted access to the Armstrong paper.
Starting to add shorts big time right here. Already booked profits on my breakout! i love it.
alvin
For WIW, a guy I follow has support and resistance levels daily and each week.
Today's support was 828, weekly support is 778
Pretty good so far.
Steve70
Jay , i swear months ago you wrote March 4 low ...April 17 high. down until June. dont out fox yourself
"Jay , i swear months ago you wrote March 4 low ...April 17 high. down until June. dont out fox yourself"
He did, I have it written in my notes. But things and reads can change.
Again, a late session, rally.
Why won't this market just roll o ver & die?
Is this bullish or bearish?
Steve70
Looks like a gap up and crap tomorrow. Could possibly close much lower than today.
bullish. 900+ soon.
What happened today looks hugely similar to the mar12 - mar17 period. If that's the case we could be making a new high soon, but we'll have to wait and see tomorrow. but it looks bullish to me as of right now.
alvin
Interesting take. The tape and indicators look pretty bearish to me short term. I think we'll decisively break today's low by tomorrow afternoon or Wednesday.
thanks for the DAILY & weekly SPX support #s
Some of my TECH internals issued a short term SELL on close today
5day ARMS =75.2
5 day TRIn= 376
Jaywiz index lowest value in week @ .25
Astro read = Dont go shopping and dont expect cooperation from anyone
watch out for accidents
COY -Thanks for the Pather UPDATE
Jay
TWEAKING the date log
After April 16th LOW which IS
248 tr day low - April14th 2008
116 tr day low - Oct 27,2008
60 tr day low - Jan 20th
We can then look for an end of month High
THEN
after an early May sell off, we do expect now MAY 18th to be a decisive HIGH from which NEW LOWER LOWS should be set in MID JUNE
Jay
Excellent Jay....and kudos for the great update again.
alvin
ITS NOW NOON:30 and TODAY
looks like it will close DOWN at least close to 300 pts if not more
Jay
that should break 800 on the open tomrrow and continue to 780 area
Not sure if the actual low will occur at 2pm or close
OR if the full moon at 10am on the 9th will provide a VERY GOOD BUYING OPP
Jay
Jay are you seeing a very large up move on the 9th? Is it worth doing a countertrend trade that day this early in the game after the market's finally turning down? If the low target is on the 16th, why not just cover on the 9th and short the spike? Thanks. I really appreciate the work you put in.
Jay -
If you're looking for a 2 day bounce beginning Thursday, do you believe it might be a good idea to start taking some long positions beginning late in the day and take some more tomorrow?
Steve70
TA Pather has Wednesday finishing down.
Coy -
I've followed TA Pather for a while on Crystal Ball.
How accurate has it been this year?
Thanks for the info.
Steve70
Nevermind Jay...sorry for the dumb question. You've clearly answered it. Thanks.
As you all know
calling a low and trading it are 2 different psychologies
I am considering buying at 2pm tomrrow and again at 4pm
Im hoping for another intraday low
on the 9th right at the full moon, but that maybe too much to wish for, BUT to get that big rally on the 9th they really need to close out the 8th on its lows
IT IS A BRADLEY DATE
YES a HUGE rally on the 9th leading into the 13th
the 16th might or might NOT make a lower low
and dow 9000 might be the EOM target
22nd is the only other setback between 16th and 30th
Jay
I think this pullback will be shallow - probably to 800 by tomorrow, some consolidation at that level and up move into early May.
I think we are in the bull leg. Barring the long-sustained pullback you see in May, this should take us to 1,050-1,150 by August-September.
I agree w/ Jay. All I know is what's in front of me. Now that we broke yesterday's low decisively, we will be lower tomorrow so held my short position and will add if we gap up tomorrow. I don't get how anyone can predict out into August, but more power to you.
Weekly support levels are close by. These are numbers per Larry T's support & resistance table.
Weekly test is 822, weekly pivot is 807, and weekly max is 782 (not likely).
Steve
I'm curious why the 9th has to be a huge up day. Full moon days can be climactic selloffs too. Bradley dates are notorious for being misinterpreted. I think it'll be clearer based on what the market looks like at the close tomorrow.
I think you're right about April 16th being a low, but I think it'll be alot lower than most traders think. Many are expecting 750 for a "healthy" pullback so they can reenter and ride the rally. I doubt it'll be that simple. If the market cuts through 750, there's very little resistance to stop it. I doubt this pullback will be shallow, but we'll see.
That is how I am seeing the market based on a variety of factors including the treasury supply coming into the market. I could be incorrect. But that is why, one should always be cautious and have some discipline in how one trades.
Lower futures b4 8am was due to a merc contra but now its 9:15 and the futures are looking a little higher this am till at least 11am
but the main emphasis today is at 1;30pm to 2pm with astro and bar cycles showing weakness during that time period
Full moon tomrrow and Bradley today cannot be anything but a low
at this point.
Jay
Setting up perfectly for a large drop soon. Shorting again...this is a good spot.
Looks like you better start buying soon.
A low does not appear to be in the cards.
If you want to go long, I'd be looking to buy on weakness.
Steve70
If we turn, now's the time we turn. I shorted too early, but it didn't matter because I shorted financials...little participation w/ the market. 828 was probably the high for today. Still likely for an afternoon selloff. Too early to buy imo
tg,
what's your target for the sell-off?
I don't really have a target. The tape tells me when to get out, stay in, or micromanage my position. All I know is that 828 was likely the high so if we break 829, I'm automatically out of my short since I'd be wrong and have to rethink. Having said that, I'm heavily short financials.
If we get a strong selloff, I'll be covering and considering starting a long position...boring tape
Xlf possible broke down out of a flag. I think xlf will decisively break to new lows now.
short here looking for 815 then a Time projection of 808 near the close
HOD at 828 at 1pm is the HOURLY time slot
NOw we see how low it can get, BUT I dont think it will be very much and for very long
2pm is still at 180 bars and moon # saturn
204 bars @ 4pm, and full moon tomrrow at 10am
So far the PROPENSITY INDEX IS IGNORING the astro and pushing up higher as is the mkt
Activity index at 1pm just dropped a bit from 133 to 66 but now stable at 100
I wrote yesterday to buy at 2pm and or 4pm or both and I think thats still valid
Jay
BAC and WFC are breaking down.
its 2pm and now up only 37
The Activity index is JUMPING HIGHER now at 200, and the PROPENSITY INDEX IS moving Up also from 3000 level to 3015 by days end
that 2pm -& its now 2:10 at + 26 dow is about all we are going to get
NOw at 2;15 up 39
The power index also seems to be calling for a higher market, especially tomorrow
More later
Jay
Sold my financial shorts....looks like a good exit here. Is anyone buying now?
TA Pather has Thursday finishing down.
i agree with last post. Thursday down . no HUGE rally.....
I'm booooolish!
alvin
Day before Holiday, we're going up next couple of days.
Failure to go down more than it did says we're going up - at least to test the 846 - 850 level.
I think Jay's right. Tomorrow will be a decent to strong up day. I'll be looking to buy any dip or hopefully gap down in the morning. Nice work Jay.
900 on 4/17. it was written months ago. 3/4 low , 4/17 high. down till june. so it shall be. everything else is all noise.
Last comment to ANON
The HIGh on MaY 18th will most likely be at least dow 9000 and spx 900
BUT its NEVER a straight line
FROM May 18 to June18th should resemble a crash to spx 590
Jay
thanks Jay. and so it is written.
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