IS Bullishness ALSO foolishness on April1st ??
COULD VERY WELL BE
Natural energy has been Lagging the market by a few days now
The expected low on March 18th hit on March 20th
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The expect high on March 30th { SUN 0 Merc} did not occur till April 2nd
April 1st & 2nd had A SUN - Merc & Venus at 0 * in ARIES
Aries indicates new starts - ALAH - G 20
also indicates ENTHUSIASM and I dont want to insult anyone AIR H----D
remember Greeny's expression of 1996 - exhuberance , hmmm
It looks like the atmosphere will NOW turn back into REALITY
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Now we are looking to potential lows on April 8/9th and or April15/16th -
YES thats options week
WITH a REACTION rebound on the 9th into the 13th.
The last Bradley March 12 &15 SHOULD have been the
9th & 10th to be more accurate also depicting a discrepancy of time
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Todays energy reading says we should COAST thru the AM today- then it says
Later ON - Harmony and enthusiasm comes and GOES
Its now just AFTER 9:45 and the mkt is giving up its early small gains
an 8 day high or turn
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OK, enuf conjecture -Lets get back to work
A 156 bar cycle at 4pm yesterday dropped the mkt in the last 30 minutes right after 3;33 as I wrote
Today we have
180 b @ 11;30
204b @ 1;30
228b @ 3;30
that means 258b is on Monday @ 11;30
And you know the reg hourly times
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but more important is looking at the next Bradley
Is supposed to be the 8th with natural energy LATE
applying its influence
I say that because on the 9th we have a confluence of cycle at 10am
FULL moon @ 9:56 am
UNLIKE its previous event on March 10th, that one took place at 9:39PM
and the reading for March 10th was much more positive than
April9th which indicates a climax between needs and desires.
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In addition to the April 9 th full moon, we also have
14.6% of 13 day cycle @ 9:50am
228bar cycle low @ 10am
TODAY made an 8day high
Monday is an 8 day turn
between NOW and April16th
It looks like we should get an A_B_C or 3 leg decline in a
typical corrective move against the latest run up from
March 9th to April 2nd
was 18 tr days + 9 = April 16
18 x 3 = 54 tr day progressions
or its parts of 18 and or 9
55 trade day progression
2008
May30high
Aug 16 low
Nov 4th high
2009
Jan 27 low
April 16 low
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Way back in history {{On or about March 6th}} I wrote to look for a
rally to SPX 845 with 847 as the murrey math magnet
Now that they got there - the lower levels of support are at 816 - & 785 then 754
Using fibo as a guide for the April16th low
spx 666 to 845 = 180 pts
180 x 38.2% = 70
50% = 90
62% = 111
78% = 140
100 % = 180
You can do the math to get to the appropiate spx levels
but 755 spx = murrey math support
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also on April16th we have a 13 day cycle LOW segment at 2pm
& at 2pm we also see a Mars II Uranus indicating explosive
arguments and possible accidents
& at 3pm there is a Merc # Pluto = unforgiving an relentless mindset
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Whew - I just might not add anything to the above for
the next 10days - or maybe just under conments
Summary
A natural energy high may have hit at spx 845 on April 2nd
the NEXT dates of importance are April 8th-9th and April15 -16th
in between is April10-13th
YES, I agree with you COY
Monday could be a very serious day
MORE LATER
Jay
9 comments:
Jay -
Aries, I should have known, being one myself.
Great job of writing, should help you in writing your next book.
Steve70
I'm going to take profits here and go out and enjoy the rest of the day. The markets could still go up from here but we're at a critical juncture. I also see a low on the 7th-8th but the question is when will the decline start. First sign of cyclical trend reversal and I'm heavy short.
Alvin
HI Steve,
Ive written several childrens bedtime stories but thats as far as my literary career has gone other then my writings here
Im glad you werent insulted by my
Aries reference
Also this wkend lots of parrallels with Merc & venus
it Should have been more obvious but other data feeds are negative
Its 3:30 and the Activity index has taken a dive so maybe a stronger sell off at the close
Jay
Alvin,
Theres very little time between now and the 8th and or the 16th
I will look for hidden reasons for a big hit on Monday
But I think Ive already seen them
See my reply to Steve.
When it hits we will know it
Later
Jay
What was with the last minute rally?
Were the traders loading up to sell to the public at lower prices on Monday?
See Chart Edge charts for next week if you have access.
I for one can't see the bearishness as the 20day/50 day MA's are crossong or have crossed.
These have been good tools in the past.
For example, look at 20/50/ 200 cross in both 9/2000 & 1/2008 - it said to bail. I paid attention in 2000, but couldn't believe we'd have another major sell off within 10 years of 2000. Bad move.
This concerns me about those still looking for much downside here.
I agree. The 20 and 50 have not only crossed but they did it off of a double bottom on the NDX. Scary upside potential there. I don't know why so many feel that financials lead the market when it has clearly been tech. Jay, could it be what you're seeing is a big burst instead of hit? I'm thinking April 9th or 16th is going to be a top not a bottom.
Other favorite indicators from a IT Trader/ Investor
Do you ever look at the VIX and SPX vs the 20 day Bollinger bands?
When the Vix & SPX closes at or beyond the bands, get ready for a move in the opposite direction. This last occurred in late march, and a top is not in sight, but a couple day rally could reverse the trend (a big maybe)
Also, have you compared Stochastics to Relative Strength? A lot of times, you'll see nonconfirmations at tops and bottoms. It says nothing right now.
Any comments, Jay or anyone?
Steve70
Im not expecting what some would call a TOP
BUT a deep retreat RIGHT here is overdue
and im still working on the details
which I will post tomrrow -Sunday
Jay
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