Courtesy Tim McCarthy- one of our followers
April 22nd is an important high this month
May 18/19th LOOMS LARGE as an important high for May
June 3rd looms large for an important high for June
This graph above pictures the dates that Ive been posting
Remember that May 19th to June 18th could be the BEST shorting OPP this year
and could rival Oct- Nov last year
June 18th could be the same catapult that occurred on Nov 21st, 2008
and we could see multiple 500 pts days in both directions from May 18th to late June
More Later
Jay
56 comments:
Love the blog still but an awful lot of flip flopping lately jay. You sound more and more like JC with each passing week. I know it's been a tough market to time lately but almost anyone could be right half the time. Might be time to go silent for a while and regain your bearings.
Jay, now that it's clear we are closing near the highs above 862, 875 tomorrow is still out of the question? I respect you and your analysis so I'm asking one more time given the way the market is closing now. I'm thinking things might've changed. 875 is only 13 points away. It's looking like possibly a big gap up on the GS news.
One thing that's going for Jay's call is xlf daily is way out of the bollinger bands. These spikes are rare and unsustainable, but it doesn't mean it can't spike another day b4 taking a breather. I think the majority of the market is being bought and controlled by the FED and the bankers. Lack of volume on the moves is not necessarily a sign of weakness since it's easier to manipulate.
Anon, at least he's making calls and alot of them have been great. If you don't like his calls why don't you just go elsewhere rather than whine about it? I think most here appreciate the effort he's putting in and sharing it. And how do you know he doesn't have his bearings? Last Friday's call alone tells me his bearings are fine. He's not going to nail every single day. If we tank badly tomorrow, it would just mean he was a little early today.
Just saying, I don't think it would benefit anyone if Jay went silent for a while.
as a trader jay change his mind and let us know that is good in this market you have to change when wind change so is good he is informing us is really good I appreciate his work.
To the first anonymous poster:
As a trader, one needs to adjust according to the messages of the market (bull/bear). Jay has mentioned several times that he is a day trader and on choppy days (like today), you certainly are going to have bullish and bearish moves and one needs to flip flop to make money.
I am an intermediate term trader, and I ALWAYS find Jay's timing predictions (for tops, lows, trending days etc) to be extremely useful. For each his own. If you dont like Jay's work, there is an easy thing for you to do - MOVE ON.
Joe
dont fight guys and girls
there is something here for everyone
Today was 377 tr days from oct 11
all time high
and fibo 1618 from the March 6th low
MY propensity index calls for bigger selloff at open than today and bigger sell off at close tomrrow
still got the 16th as the pivot low and next week as a potential high
see Tim's chart
1pm is a cycle low tomrrow
might be the day's pivot as noon was today.
but more on that later
Jay
1st anon
Take the long road or the short road, but you cant ride them both
Jay
Weak response to GS earnings afterhours so that answers my dumb question about 875. I need to pay less attention to the news, since it is an excuse for market movement, not a reason for it. I agree that it could be a decent down day tomorrow now that some key indicators have shifted direction. Still holding tza. Even if tomorrow is another up day, (highly doubtful) xlf is a stretched rubber band ready to snap back. It wouldn't be surprising if tomorrow's a huge down day.
Today was also a BRADLEY which actually was the 12th but its effect was today
Next bradley is the 16th and is expected to bottom out at 2pm
Next HIGH is expected on April22nd
at 2;11pm
Jay
today hits 8113.41 and exact fibo 1618 pts off the March 6th LOW
today is 377 tr days from Oct 12th, 2007 all time high
That makes my June18th date even more important
June 18th is
49 tr days from today- Joe Granvill's favorite
233 from july 15, a low
377 from Dec 17, 2007, a low
thats in addition to
its a Bradley date
144 Nov 20th -2008 and we all know that date
60 year cycle from 1949 - ive shown that chart a few times
And now we see Tim's chart also
More later
Jay
"today hits 8113.41 and exact fibo 1618 pts off the March 6th LOW"
Wouldn't that be 6495 then? March 6th low is 6443. Thanks.
Jay, I know you're calling for a down day tomorrow, but have you seen the vix chart? It already broke down and is now testing the trendline. IYR also clearly broke out of its upper trend line (Nov. to Jan. high). Both these point towards April 16th being a top. I'm just throwing it out there.
I CANNOT jump around and use data that Im not familiar with
To be consistent, I must use what WORKS FOR ME
THIS week is TOUGH to trade- PERIOD
ITS simply a ZAG back to the trend line at spx 820
NOT much $$ to make on the short side.
thats why I reiterate
GET READY to BUY the PIVOT low at 2pm on the 16th
TODAY's LOD should occur at either 1pm and close better after 3;30 leading to
A HIGHER open on Wed which can also be sold at possibly 11am
ditto of Thursday with 2pm offering the buy
More Later
Jay
Jay,
Do you expect a big rally on the 17th?
yeaaaaaaah baby!!
alvin
sometimes all the work is in the waiting.
read that somewhere but oh so true
alvin
Covered my shorts for nice profit...probably early, but I can always reshort from higher levels.
"be right and sit tight" - Livermore
Jay,
Do you expect the low on 16th to be a lower low? It seems a lower low after today could make it very hard for the indices to hit highs over yesterday.
Peter
JAy
congratulation perfect call bottom at 1.00pm.
Thanks
I will be shorting the open - Wed April15th
they should make it up near 100 dow pts
first 5 minutes
My propensity index called today to a teee
and its pointing to a HIGHER OPEN
there should be 3 lows tomorrow
10:15 am
11am & 1pm should be matching LOD's
and 3:30
It means tomorrow could be the
BIGGER DOWN DAY
Jay
Jay , So you will be buying puts Wed morning...correct then selling them at the end of the day Thanks eric
Anon
Since I dont like to spend the day glued to the PC & nursing my position I will most likely sell those puts at the earlier LOD
THEN its in the POOL for me
Jay
Jay:
Your 1:00 PM LOD call was fantastic.
As to the possible rally tomorow AM, looking at waves and retracements, 40 to 60 points on DJI look more likely on the upside than the 100 you mention. that is where I will get back on SPY short.
Ideally, 7980 ish on DJI for short entry. That is where wave 3, or more likely 1 of 3, gets 61.8% retracement with a a,b,c.
Ravi
Ravi
thanks
that make a lot of sense -40 to 60 pts at most, and as of 8:45, futures are hovering so the open could go either way
ONE big statement
IM considering BUYING The CLOSE today as tomrrows pivot low at 2pm NOW appears it might come off an open higher
in other words, it would probably be beneficial to buy today's close even with that pivot due at 2pm tomrrow
Jay
Jay, So I assume you expect another close at LOD (as you mentioned you are buying at close today)?
Thanks
Are you still shorting the open here or waiting for a pop first Jay? Thanks.
Damn this is tough
WE got the 80 pts runup AFTER
opening down 40 , then got to +42
______________________
Now that I bot puts, when to sell them?
_____________________________
3:30 is 258 bars and would be MOST likely time, UNLESS 1pm offers a decent profit
__________________________
Im still buying the close and will add more if they open lower briefly tomorrow
_____________________
Jay
It looks like we're setting up for an afternoon selloff til 3:00. I think your calls are close enough. Shorted fincancials this morning. Look at DBC or XLE. Both sectors are retracing to test the morning break point. I say once they get there, they will break down leading the market down into the afternoon. It's worth waiting to see what happens there.
XLE turning now at double resistance point and DBC just got rejected. I think home free now...market will turn down now. jmo
Markets not turning down.
What's the point of the short side after the 20 day crosses the 50.
Your fighting gravitational pull.
Think long!
2:55pm is ASTRO
Sun 60 Neptune
VERY ILLUSIONARY
IT MUST BE the CULPRIT holding up the works
Tomrrow's astro is negative
BUT my other working data says UP
propensity & power indexes are looking for a rally tomorrow
BUT I
Still think that 2pm pivot tomrrow might be the key
Mars II Uranus
50% of 13 day
60bars
ALL CONVERGE at 2pm
I cant see how they would rally against that until after
Jay
ALSO
take a look right now at 1pm
the SPX is way BELOW AN EQUAL LEVEL OF THE DOW & THE nazdaq IS down
if THEY DO GET up 100 PTS BY 2:55PM, THEN i WILL BE FORCED TO buy MORE PUTS
tHE activity index is flat line AT .66 - QUITE A LOW NUMBER AND HAS NOT BUDGED.
im not hungry at all AND HAVENT EATEN SINCE 8:30AM
THE clues TO TODAY'S puzzle ARE FALLING INTO LINE
down after 3PM INTO 2PM TOMRROW
jAY
Thursday looks bearish for stocks -
Sun/Apollon opposition, a strong negative bias.
Aid to the downside by the heliocentric Venus/Poseidon conjunction
and the Mercury/Pluto contraparallel.
I forgot to mention - TA Pather agrees with astro Thursday.
Jay, since we are down in to 3PM, does it indicate a turn up now?
Jay, doesn't get out of the pool until 4PM
Jay, has the movement of the tape changed your opinion about tomorrow? Seems like some Fed intervention going on
After screwing up today on my trade, I'm long now and buying dips tomorrow. That's what the tape is telling me. The gravitational pull was strong.
april 17 high
Help!
What are the pumpers doing?
Negative Astro is losing the battle to positive propensity & power index
_____________________________
Propensity bottomed yesterday
power index still shows a potential for the 2pm dip as does astro
____________________________
activity index rose from 100 to 200 and is flat for last hour
______________________________
TO CLARIFY yesterday
258 bars truncated at 3pm
thus last hour & closing rally
_______________________________
today we still have 30b @ 11:30
60b@ 2pm with astro and 13day cycle
the mkt should, but no guarantee, be sluggish until after 2pm -3pm
________________________________
FROM there, the mkt should rocket higher into tomrrow
Jay
Fed will purchase $7 billion treasuries today, hence the last hour rally. Also, no major supply coming to the market in the next 2 weeks, which means Fed can pump as they like.
The supply begins to increase starting early May.
Jay,
the beginning of this thread started with charts from Tim.
However, he has since posted updates to those charts - the latest being this am.
have you seen them?
The Venus retrograde period terminates and goes direct a half hour before Friday's close. This is indicative of a trend change, rising prices during retrograde, negative bias following the direct station for the next couple weeks.
The Moon will be VOC Friday from 2:15PM till Venus goes direct.
TA Pather says Friday finishes down.
I have the moon VOC at 12:42PM EST and then into Aquarius at 2:19 EST I think Venus will have a bit of a hangover and the trend continues to the New moon Here is a chart i drew up.
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$GOLD&p=D&b=5&g=0&i=p37955855597&a=164282628&r=816
sorry wrong chart. here ya go
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SPX&p=15&st=2009-04-01&i=p77595618161&a=165502489&r=723
Astro,
I thought even Jay had 22/23 as the top. So are you implying the hangover extends till 25th (new moon day). Venus turns direct tomorrow and I see everybody (following astro) expecting top.
hmm.... seems government will release stress details on april 24. hmmm... wonder if they use new moon calendar as well. lol
Greg
well i am just saying nothing turns on a dime Venus went retro on the 6th of March but the move started on the 10th. All the good companies are reporting here early so that should get us to that SPX area of 875 we should be able to push up there. then?
Astro,
You mentioned markets dont turn on a dime (and I completely agree), but since March 23/24, we have gained 20-30points. That can be seen as distribution. If true, April 16th fits fine for turn date.
On the other hand, this can be seen as consolidation which allows for a rise to next week (but it will be exhaustive in nature or parabolic as there is no further time for churning) which fits Jay's call for 900+ to April 22/23.
I guess if we dont rocket up late today/tomm or worse yet, go down tomorrow to end up with doji's on weekly, then April 16 may be it..
Any thoughts?
Greg
Buy any dip if we get one. We are going to close up...possibly way up.
2:00 doesn't look like a low pivot point unless we reverse quickly. It appears that the rally has already started.
You normally make great calls Jay, but 1 day early this time. Tomorrow may not be that strong an up day since we've launched almost 2 days straight now. The rocket launched yesterday at 2:00pm.
well i am just saying nothing turns on a dime Venus went retro on the 6th of March but the move started on the 10th. All the good companies are reporting here early so that should get us to that SPX area of 875 we should be able to push up there. then?
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