THE NEW JAYWIZ 2023
Sunday, April 19, 2009
Sunday Thoughts
An ending DIAGONAL triangle may have formed from the Low of March 31st to April18th
And Monday might slide for the entire day, but not sure about Tuesday yet;
However
here's the bar cycle
Monday has
180 bars at 11am
204b @ 1pm
and 228b@ 3pm
all of those MATCH the hourly cycle which NORMALLY has a tendency to make intraday highs
Except you will note the FRIDAY 3pm LOW, then the 3;45 TOP, and last 15 minute drop
THEN On Tuesday, we have a MORE significant 258bar cycle ALSO at 11AM
The Next question becomes when to close out our put positions?
It would seem prudent to close them out on Monday possibly at 11am and or 3pm
expecting a minor rebound off the 3pm low going into the close if thea bove works out
Should we buy calls on Tuesday at 11am low?
It would seem correct as the end of day should rally considerably given the juice derived from
a VENUS 0 Mars at 6pm
And those calls should possibly be closed out on the 22nd at about 2pm ,
unless your willing to hold them thru Friday's new moon high
Interesting note that the Martin Armstrong turn date is April20th, but thats a BIZ cycle turn
as was Feb 20th, 2007 and the mkt dropped 400 pts on FEb 27th
However, we do see some turmoil abounding along with the North Korean nuclear issue this week
and some national protests over TAX issues.
We have some price levels to watch over the next 2 months
spx hit 875, and that is just under the 23.6% gain which would have taken it to 881-
Got darn close at 875 , and NOTE the Murrey math level of 878 was not breached
so getting to the 909 level doesnt seem probable
there was 908 pts lost from Oct 2007 high to March 9th LOW
there was 208 pts gained from 667 to 875
Math break down for possible lower levels
38.2% = 82 pts = spx to 793
50% = 104 pts = spx to 768
62% = spx to 743
78% = spx to 708
Using the 40 pt rule of thumb we get something quite similar
875- 40= 835-
-40= 795
-40=755
-40= 715
____________________________________________________
IF the move from March 9 to April 18 was a primary wave 1,
then the next is a primary wave 2 retracement as per the math above
NOw, of course we will look for an incredible primary wave 3 > 4 & 5 after
wave 2 is finished, which could run up at high as a 62% retracement back up to spx 1100
AND could be completed by March 2010 thus matching Anniv of the the March 2000 high
This is ALL just specualtion at this time, but very likely given wave structures that weve seen mnay times b4.
NOW<>
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4 comments:
so jay, if 1 is done. will 2 start now and take us down into june 18 as previously reported before the start of 3. tia
We may not have done a 1, but an a,b, c for a A, as your ending diagonal chart shows. In that case, we have started B. Short term, similar to 2, but next up will be C not 3, and therfore not as strong.
ravi
Yes Ravi
I agree but its easier to describe it as 1 to 5
and when viewing the graph, it does look that way, even if not authentic Elliott
B wave it is and the values are the same as posted
thanks
Jay
3 X ETF
BGU if Long
BGZ if Short
Jay
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