Bollinger bands appear to be coming to a PINCH at 4pmSPX 991.20 - like the mama bear - JUST RIGHT
NEXT 2 days should PROVE the wave count
it would seem we got wave 1 or 'a' from 1018 to 980 in 6 days --aha 39 hours
Next DOWN LEG would be 13 hours to the 20 th at 2;15pm or the last hour @ 3;30
20th converges 26hrs from the 14th & 65 hours from the the 6th @2:15pm
& 180 bars hits at 3;30
the BAR cycle is right on schedule as there was a minor dip on 258bars @ 1;30pm today
the NEXT important BAR cycle is at 4pm, AND OR OPEN
IF today does NOT tank at the close IT WILL DO SO AT OPEN - tomrrow,
especially given the Mars 90 Uranus tonight
ALSO
the 20th is an 8 day LOW
which makes the 21st an 8day TURN
Using a variation of my 13 day cycle = Aug 7th at 1;15pm + 84.5 hours =Aug26th
Note about the 26th
Merc 90 PLUTO @ noon
Mars 180 Pluto @ 4;30
strong Plutonian energy = DISRUPTIONS - Uncertainty- domination- rash actions
SUMMARY
wave 1 from 1018 to 980 ~~ Aug 7th to Aug 17th
Wave 2 from 10:00am on the 17th to what now looks like 3:55pm today -
wave 3 DOWN should = 2 days from 4pm today till 2pm on the 20th AND or 21st at open
13 hours
how low is low ?
Hey -- you CAN do the math as well as I do
Wave 4 from Early friday to Monday at 4pm = 13 hrs
MY thought is 38 X 1.618 = 62pts
OR
38X 2.618 = 100 pts
350 spx pts gained from march 6th low
X 38.2% = 135 pts
38 pts = wave 1
leaves us with a potential loss of 100 pts in 2 days
Monday's read says THE DAY SOARS
so get ready to buy the lower open on Friday
Tuesday the 25th says a CHANGE IN ENERGY and it gets negative again
27th calls for a TURNING POINT and a 62% /13day cycle at 10;43am
more later
Jay
52 comments:
Thanks jay. I am waiting for the next 10- to 13 trading hours. man, will I be a happy man, if we see 935.
sam
Sam:
Come back to reality 935 isn't in the cards...too much money is chasing this market. The waves don't work in this market
I see your point Anon. whatever the level, tomorrow is the day to uload shorts and regroup for the next strategy.
BTW, another hope is that X-trend /Atilla/ Sol covered the shorts today to lock in the profit. Good move for them but it is also an indicator that we go down. Until now for the last four months market has gone against x-trend why not tomorrow. Huh?
thgis is just a hope. I learned my lesson hard to have stop loss not ride on the hope.
sam
Tomorrow is the day to keep an open mind. Watch the tape carefully at the open. We could head to 1000 which is 61.8% retrace from 8/13.
pg
GAP DOWN!
fg
today tuesday we barely managed to get to where the market broke down. Volume has been light and was even lighter today. Mostly the market is being pushed around on low volume as bulls or whoever comes in at the days ends and pushes the market back up. The Negative astrology readings get stronger everyday. And will continue well into Sept. A pattern that formed Nov.4th 2008 and Feb 5 2009 is soon approaching. Myself i am looking for a 20% retrace or around 820 area by the end of Sept. The bulls are now worried the consumer may not participate for a market recovery. You can only cut so many jobs and earnings had no real revenue. Also when the Earnings bar is laying on the ground how hard is it to jump over it? Good luck to all
Astro8
Even if there's a gap down, I think it will be bought. Good luck with that.
pg
My thinking is there are alot of traders who missed the big move for shorting the market. Now they're waiting for any decent retrace to short. It may not happen the way the expect.
pg
The way I see it, the millions that watch Kudlow&Kramer at cNbC nutwork think the market bottomed and is heading to new highs right now.
Well, I happen to think along with a few here, that the market makes one more low before heading higher. As the strict minority we game players are, I would LOVE this market to go back to 1000 so I can short the snot out of it.
But frankly i don't think the market is that accomodating. In fact I know it's not.
If we gap down I'll buy it for a scalp. But overall the market is headed lower. Come on 1000 if you can. that would be a screaming put. A gift from Ms market to me.
Kenny
I never said the market won't make another low, but the million dollar question is how do we get there? However we get there, I'll be on the right side of the trade or in cash.
pg
LOL. If you know the market is headed lower, then those who are short now are already on the right side of the trade.
I think it's best to state what timeframe youre trading. Not everyone is trading the 1 minute chart like you and I.
All the best
Kenny
Asian markets were flat in their morning session and sold off in the afternoon session. When Europe opened , it caught up by going down, but without breaking Monday low, and has been recoring since then. The recovery looks like the c of an a, b, c correction off Monday low and once that little c is over, a real move down becomes possible.
No major economic news release today 8:30. Only inventory at 10. Tomorrow is big with initial claims at 8:30, also leading indicators at 10.
fdr & Jay;
1 hr to open and futures down big again. Great call on the gap down if it holds which looks possible.
Again, great call....wow
Sally
Ravi,
Great work as well. Thanks for the EW calls.
Sally
I'm trading very short term obviously. Nice call on the gap down.
pg
Jay, Ravi and Coy,
Any updates for us.
Thanks
Long tna from $34.33 at the open. Like I said dip gets bought and 980 is important...for now Missed the gap down though...crap.
pg
Adding more at $35.22...this could be more than just a gap fill
pg
get ready to sell,high of the day coming in shortly.
Sold all seems like it's running into a brick wall up there.
pg
Still %50 short, and holding.
May ADD to shorts, waiting for
VC signal.
we may in an early stage of triangle that eats up much of the time to Friday expiration.
Yesterday's up was likely a, today's opening low end of b, the rise from there to a point lower than yesterday's hi probably a c, now working on d down to above today's low and then e up to complete the triangle, before continuing down below 978.51. The only problem with that count is that the duration of each wave not too proportional. Let use see if this develops the way described.
nice call J.
Reza,
High 13:30
Coy
BOTTOM is in. The market is trying to mask it again.
jj
this crap happens all the time in opex week,murderous decline to new lows before expiry is through.wednesday usually is the "turnaround" day.i hate trading these weeks,the silliest of moves occur.
Bulls: Hold or add through this little 12:15 dip.
We are at the RUBICON here.
jj
Bye bye bears!
jj
this is likely an x wave of a double zig zag with fresh lows by end of week.alternatively bears are in big trouble with alt counts(very slim odds imo)
Ravi,
Stopped out at 994 correct??
If so what is next trade??
Thanks
What's Going On Here?
JAY, I Need Some Input Please.
Thanks
Chris
that triangle blew away with crossing of yesterday's hi.
now what count?
An a,b, c was completed from 1018 to 978.52, move of -39.5. Since then we are in a X wave which has retraced just over 50% of that move at 998.4. IF the X is about done, the second a,b, c can target 998.5-39.5= 959 area.
The move up from 978.51 is not impulsive. it is a,b,c,x,a,b,c with the last c being impulsive.
Let us see.
Well I was right about busting higher today...but didn't commit. At least I made some money this morning. Negative astro's not working too well today...hence the need to be flexible. This blog's a little too one sided for my taste. Good luck!
pg
Ravi,
Stopped out at 994, but now what?
Wait to re-enter and where??
Thanks. Trying to learn to trade using EW
Shorts: Hang on. I think you'll like 15:00/EOD, tomorrow.
pg
where else do you post? or do you plan on staying here?
I go where ever you are posting. It was nice to follow your calls.
Mark
Friday morning is a strong BUY and it's from a higher low....that is a higher 21 hour cycle low.
Bottom is IN.
jj
jake, for today the stop loss should have been moved to just above 991.20.
we may get one more push to slightly higher hi in 1000 area. Anyway, today's hi likely the end of x wave. Today's hi should be the next stop loss.
Entry should be in accordance with such hi, hi already made, specially if we get a small degree 5 wave down entry on small degree a, b,c should be considered.
There should be no compulsion enter, if such low risk entry does not present itself.
Ravi,
Next stop loss at todays high?? I thought 991.80 was the stop. Now we should be flat and waiting, correct?? Where would be a good place to re-enter shorts?? Thanks
reading other Elliott sites , there are projections to SPX 1000, and we just got to 998.40
considered a "C" wave high from the low of 978 at 9:45 on Monday
today's open banger was at 13 hours.
another one should occur on friday at 9:45am also.
the ACTIVITY index was at 100 all night and exploded to 325 after 9am
IT IS NOW shedding those highs and
at 12:30, has now dropped to 200. With an hour delay we could still hold higher levels till after 1pm
as Coy had mentioned 1;30pm
the propens index ALSO showed me
a sharp drop on yesterday's chart which as predicted DID HIT at the OPEn today.
We have a similar projection on the propens index for LATE today and or early tomrrrow.
BUT
The 20th is NOT FULLY available on the proens index, & should be somewhat complete by days end.
___________________________
But what it does show right now
is a SHARP retreat TODAY Aug19th
and just like yesterday , but when it actually does a drop is not clearly shown.
_____________________
Im looking at the 10day/ 15 min chart and it shows OBV severely lacking on this last rally IF as Ravi surmised, its a 5 wave structure and a "C" wave attempt at spx 1000, it looks complete. Could have one more try, but i tend to doubt it, given the activity index dramatic drop in the last hour, which just leveled off at 200.
more later
Jay
Jay
In short, a severe decline is imminent, starting after 1:30??
Thanks.
jake,
To trade with EW, you have let the market tell you when to revise your count. That affects entry and stop loss. Once we dived this AM, yesterday's hi became the stop loss based on the likely wave count.
You really need to do it with small exposure first and keep the trading cost low. That means buying selling SPY with 1 cent bid ask difference at an account with under $10 brokerage.
Jake;
I would LIKE to say YES to A decline starting at 1pm, but the propens index does NOT give me exact TIMES
IT does SHOW a SHARP drop, just like it did for this AM.
BUT other indexes suxh as the activity DOES show me in 5 min increments what to expect next.
the ACTIVITY index DID drop from 325 to NOW at 1;30 is at 200 which Tells me the NEXT bigger move based on looking at those pieces of the puzzle, the next bigger move should be DOWN.
I'll start a new thread- this one is getting lengthy with some RALLY GREAT comments
Jay
Thanks Jay.
Jake, what I said means the following: after being stopped out at the 991.20 stop, the stop loss for an short at higher price will be a hi that expected slightly above 998.40 (which I was hi when I rode)
You play e wave wave by wave not day by day.
I think you should learn the intricacies of ew a bit better before using it.
Mark, I'll stick around longer as long as I feel like it's not hindering my trading. Thx for the vote of confidence. I may initiate a short soon...depends on what they plan on doing with this tape. They may just want to take this to 1002-1004 level to shake out more shorts...or not. We'll see.
pg
Ravi,
With all due respect, I'm just asking if YOU would post trades that
YOU would making based on EW, to see
if is a tradeable method or not.
At this point I think you would be flat and waiting, after being stopped out.
Looks like we're setting up for another push higher soon.
pg
Still %50 short from qqq 39.85 Waiting for new VG signal.
Like I said, going higher after flag setup. New highs soon.
pg
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