important astro conjuncture tomorrow could spell a big big crash type event check the futures tonight and watch asia post it on every blog you can, major divergence with the late moon eclipse is having major influence right now, putz crash window still opened and tomorrow is it.
Either we gap up big time tomorrow or start a correction.
Why such drastically different scenarios?
There are two short term scenarios based on EW as I see it. Either we finshed a diagonal 5 waves for an extended b of B OR we started a 'minor iii' of iii of (v) that takes us to 1030+.
We shall find out early tomorrow.
Last two weeks has presented the kind of market where staying out would have been the most appropriate strategy.
'Greatest fall ever'??? Why does everyone seem to love to make "crash" calls. Sol's account at xtrends just blew up waiting for one of atilla's crashes. He lost 4 million in 4 months. Don't predict, just react.
Who the f#*k cares. It's Jay's blog. He can say and predict whatever he wants. Why should you and others care unless you need someone to hold your hand.
Hey Franky, Take a Valium dude. Anon is not JAY. Jay posts under......Jay. Anon posted that same message on numerous blogs last night. I happen to like Jay, so chill out.
Moons say get ready to kiss your Bullish A** goodbye and welcome to the real world where you can't print money out of thin air or pluck it off the tree in your back yard
Franky, Like I said, chill out. Nobody is being intolerant of bear posts. But Mr. Anon posted that same "crash" scenario on several sites, based on a lunar eclipse. If it happens, good for the bears(I'm one) but if it doesn't Mr. Anon will just disappear the same way he came in... anonymously. If he's right, then he'll probably start his own blog. Personally I hope he's right.
BKX is going up and USD index is still weak. I say we have a massive short squeeze by EOD tomorrow. The way the operators have been playing the last 2 months have been to lay bear baits and then squeeze them hard.
As you see from past your macro level or distant readings are better and work mostly with minor fluctuation of dates. I dont think it makes sense to use astrology to predict each moment and day, however we can surely do that reading moon cycles but most other planetary events can not be so precise as to coincide with our day to day life or market which is part of life too. I have benefitted from your readings pk
Regardless of what method you use to make predictions, no matter the time-frame to which your predictions apply... YOU NEVER make a trade unless your TA CONFIRMS the turn. No?
Any trader who pulls the trigger based on a turn date or time prediction is playing with FIRE. You Must have a means by which to CONFIRM otherwise youre frontrunning triggers which gets you in a lot of trouble.
I have successfully played many time based turns using just time instead of TA ... even though it falls right around the TA range. If you pay enough attention to program trading bots, time based plays are possible if you set a 2 point stop loss.
Please elaborate. My frontrunning, somebody else' front running, who? I need some clarity on the statement about frontrunning triggers. I'm not sure of your meaning. Thanks in advance.
The EW count is getting a bit clearer for a change.
"Low degre": The move from 869: The scenario of 1030+ resulting from extension of 5th wave is getting to be very unlikely. A diagonal fifth either ended yesterday at 1007 or will end tomorrow at 1008-1014, the latter number being 38.2% retrace of P1. So we are down to two scenarios without a material difference. As a short, I will prefer a high above 1007 tomorrow. The drop from yesterday's high to today's low was a three wave a, b, c affair. A marginally higher hi provides an opportunity to start down with a a five wave move in 5-3-5, hopefully increasing the chance of a deeper retrace besides allowing us to add to shorts at better price. The bigger question remains how deep is B going to be, IF that is the count. For a lot of us who shorted around 950-961 that is an important quesion.
At " medium degree", the more important issue is this: does the very strong five wave move to say 1014 complete P2 rather than A of the third zig zag from March bottom? If so we are headed to 666 and below without a B or a C. 1014 does 38.2% retrace from ATH in Oct. '07 and NDX has already done 50% retrace followed by fives down. Bullish sentiment at 88% for last two days was same as October '07 high! My gut tells me we are going to do third zig zag' with B, C ahead, as in 1930 that will allow us to exceed the 88% bullish sentiment. Only problem with that is that it will be too much like 1930.
At "large degree", I remain of the view that we are in P2 and will break 666 either starting now or later after doing a B down and C up. I think the latter is more likely.
What we have now is panic buying , which happens in the final stages of a bear rally.
Together with "the worst is over" , and "recession is over " now all over the papers - this tells me that we are close to a big move down soon at these euphoric , extreme levels.
A word about TA. Unexpected news skews the day, no matter how excellent your TA. That's what happened yesterday with our expected wave at 13:58. AIG who'da thunk.
Today's Picture - Remember, don't hold me to the times. + or -.
The best part of today is the open. The bias is positive till about 11:52.
We get a huge wollop to the downside 13:34. We close down.
Hi Guys, as I have mentioned in the past you Use fundamental analysis to determine what to buy. Use technical analysis and seasonality analysis to determine when to buy and sell. So Jays timing cant predict the news that some folks see positive and then they buy.... Fundamentals can be certain announcements that shake up the market and force buyers in because they dont want to loose out on the rally or Shorts get squeezed.... NEWs and the media sometimes create the environment for a momentum play.
So, YES, all the TA is pointing to a TOP but you cant control the news and when the news is good, go with the flow but do the following: Develop positions over time with multiple transactions up or down, Each successive addition to a position should be equal or smaller than previous, Only profitable positions should be increased, When equity markets appear to be reaching a peak and profit taking becomes prudent, close out losing sector positions first, close out sector positions with low profits next and close out sector positions with the largest percentage gains last.
Anyhow, it doesnt always work, thus why I place small bets and win over time, hence why I have to work as a ENG to make 80% of my income........
No-one except for you Joseph comes to Jay's blog to listen to fundamental analysis. You're on the wrong blog for that crap. BTW, youre completely wrong with your opinion. You need alot more experience and knowledge before giving out advice on timing.
Morning cash hi of 1008 (exact) was 2.70 lower than prmarket futures hi of 1010.70 on a cash equivalent basis.
So we have met the 1008-1014 target. This is also be in line with Coy's call of hi at opening and Jay's earlier call for Thursday as being the last good day for longs before we hit july 10 to july 20 down.
Jay, does you latest call for big down july 17-21 negate prior call or is part of it?
Holly smokes guys, wow. All I have to say with a smile is if this board is this tough GOD knows what would happen if you mean spirited folks were broke, down in out etc... All hell would break loose, but then some streat smart guy like me or folks would slap you silly. Thats a guarantee. Now of course youll respond with attacks. OIL is topping at $72 and Nat at 4.xx. For the TSX this is not so good but I believe the banks will do well next week with earnings so for the TSX Im still in a fair amont but took some out of OIL, just a tad....
....and joseph will respond with more inane babbling. Somebody please hack his computer and shut him down. I don't want him jinxing my 57 digit profits.
GOD bless you all, Sorry to have bothered you. Hope you do well today. And yes I am a Eng who has done quite well by simply hard work, I admit, many others were much smarter than I but didnt work as hard as i did. Been lucky and landed a great job 15yrs ago before many, many others in the class and made it work with great, great money for the family when there was HUGE growth.
As mentioned OIL has topped out close to $72, hence why I pulled some money off the table on the TSX this week as mentioned in a post.
Check my last few post stiff, I said TSX 11000 was tops. How, by looking at PF charts of course and MACD as a confirmation of trend. I find MACD useless as a preempt of trend...P&F bottom/tops and previous breakout/down bottoms and tops. I also said OIL hiting target of $72..... Made the calls prior to 11000Max and OIL 72 top... Mentioned I was pulling out a Tad on OIL but believe it will go up from Aug 10..
Jay/Ravi, if your here I woulnt mind hearing your take if will fall into next week or rise to about the Aug 14th or so. My thoughts are the EUR-USD broke 142.5 then 1.43 and we ran up more. So if the EUR-USD doesnt break 1.43 i think this pullback is weak. Hence we go up to at least 1015 which is Fib 38%....
Jay/Ravi, whats your astro stuff say for next week?
Too bad that's not your own analysis joseph. Who did you buy that from again? That analysis and your earlier post don't jive so I know it ain't you. If we followed strictly your advice I think we'd go broke pretty fast.
Well lets see, I guess you cant read?? I also said we would rise into last Thurs and Friday and we did, hopefully you can stop being a prick and read. Some got pissed that I made the call far before it happened. Sure, sure, whatever you say boss gg/giggles : )
Hence, Im interested in what Jay and Ravi have to say about next weeks run to the 14th, are we going up, sideways or down? Want to prep over the wknd to get ready for either way. For OIL i believe its up next week,
Jay/Ravi, whats your thoughts about next week. Do we hit 1015 and possibly higher or do we test 950? Would like your feedback, everyone is watching Fibs, currency, EWT, OIL so would like your Astro and TA feedback
Unfortunately most of you are abusing this blog of Jay. Pl note it is HIS PERSONAL blog and he has rights to post whatever he wants. We are here to get a clue to his indicators.
It is pointless to discuss speculative ideas which are usually on forums all around. There can never be consensus. We are NOT HERE for consensus but to hear a contrarian view.
LET JAY SPEAK his mind every week or day on macro trends and what he sees and if you can not post your positive opinion or some contributing thought PLEASE do not post nonsense and useless leg pulling ideas. NO USE TO you or anyone.
Pl THINK of covering all your trades with your own care and vision and not rely on others. JAY analyzes based on astro aspects yet he also factors his feel and pulse of the market. PLEASE DO NOT destroy this blog and stay away from useless posts.
85 comments:
important astro conjuncture tomorrow could spell a big big crash type event check the futures tonight and watch asia post it on every blog you can, major divergence with the late moon eclipse is having major influence right now, putz crash window still opened and tomorrow is it.
Maybe the greatest fall ever
we've been ready...for about 2 weeks now
Either we gap up big time tomorrow or start a correction.
Why such drastically different scenarios?
There are two short term scenarios based on EW as I see it. Either we finshed a diagonal 5 waves for an extended b of B OR we started a 'minor iii' of iii of (v) that takes us to 1030+.
We shall find out early tomorrow.
Last two weeks has presented the kind of market where staying out would have been the most appropriate strategy.
Ravi
'Greatest fall ever'??? Why does everyone seem to love to make "crash"
calls. Sol's account at xtrends just
blew up waiting for one of atilla's crashes. He lost 4 million in 4 months. Don't predict, just react.
Hey Johhny G. et al.:
Who the f#*k cares. It's Jay's blog. He can say and predict whatever he wants. Why should you and others care unless you need someone to hold your hand.
franky
Hi Jay:
What did you mean by "shorts get ready"? Ready for what and when?
take it easy on each other < shorts will have their way shortly < mainly 10th to 20th < Jay
Jay:
Thanks for clarifying your view.
As I understand it, you expect adownmove from next Monday the 10th to Thursday the 20th.
Am I right in assuming you are neutral for the remaining three days of this week?
Hey Franky,
Take a Valium dude. Anon is not JAY.
Jay posts under......Jay.
Anon posted that same message on numerous blogs last night. I happen to like Jay, so chill out.
Jay, now that the futes are flat what are the moons sayin?
PS - Be very careful trading on this type of advice, you will lose money, PERIOD.
Moons say get ready to kiss your Bullish A** goodbye and welcome to the real world where you can't print money out of thin air or pluck it off the tree in your back yard
ignore anon < aug 6 last hurrah for bulls < Jay
All day will have a noticably negative bias. One point in the day, the bulls will try powering up, 11:17.
13:58 strong downside bias, this strength gets doubled 15:40.
coy,
Do you use astrology or time analysis based on program trading?
Good try ARAK. Proprietary information.
Hi Jay.
It never fails. The bulls are always the most intolerant of bear posts right before a decline especially a significant one.
Ilove it.
Franky
Franky,
Just like bears were intolerant of the bull view during the Mar lows.
Arak.
yeah, exactly.
ofcourse it's the late-arrival Bulls...the dumb money , that's most vociferous.
franky
Coy's system predictions will only work 60% of the time.
The Best systems......
Matt Fr.
Franky,
Like I said, chill out. Nobody is
being intolerant of bear posts.
But Mr. Anon posted that same "crash" scenario on several sites, based on a lunar eclipse. If it happens, good for the bears(I'm one)
but if it doesn't Mr. Anon will just
disappear the same way he came in...
anonymously. If he's right, then he'll probably start his own blog.
Personally I hope he's right.
Jay,
What do you make of the $TRIN?
It looks corrupt. Too low.
TIA
Coy
BKX is going up and USD index is still weak. I say we have a massive short squeeze by EOD tomorrow. The way the operators have been playing the last 2 months have been to lay bear baits and then squeeze them hard.
TRIN is not too low ... accumulation in the 352 advancing issues outpaces the selling in the 1577 declining issues. I'm suspicious of this pullback.
Suggestion to Jay
As you see from past your macro level or distant readings are better and work mostly with minor fluctuation of dates. I dont think it makes sense to use astrology to predict each moment and day, however we can surely do that reading moon cycles but most other planetary events can not be so precise as to coincide with our day to day life or market which is part of life too.
I have benefitted from your readings
pk
Thanks ARAK. Makes a lot of sense.
TRIN being driven lower just 2 issues ... BAC & C
AIG is on a tare. I think it's an NYSE component.
Hurry up 13:58. I want that negative bias to start kicking in.
Let me make a Point about Time Forecasting.
Regardless of what method you use to make predictions, no matter the time-frame to which your predictions apply... YOU NEVER make a trade unless your TA CONFIRMS the turn. No?
Any trader who pulls the trigger based on a turn date or time prediction is playing with FIRE. You Must have a means by which to CONFIRM otherwise youre frontrunning triggers
which gets you in a lot of trouble.
david Newman
what chart time frame do you use to confirm
Dave,
I have successfully played many time based turns using just time instead of TA ... even though it falls right around the TA range. If you pay enough attention to program trading bots, time based plays are possible if you set a 2 point stop loss.
The great eclipse crash, huh
ARAK.. Your system is doing opposite of what it predicted. What happened?
Chris
great f*clipse crash ;-))
opposite? how? it is doing right ... the bear bait has been laid and the bear ball squeeze is happening. Did I say crash here?
ARAK.. Sorry. I meant to address COY, not you.
COY. What happened?
Chris
Greatest fall ever...I'm fricken overwhelmed. Astro is about as precise as armstrong dates.
x
I thought there might be some questions. Two things, the decling dollar and rise in financials was quite overwhelming.
This day is not over by a long shot. It is now the lull before the storm. The next wave is 15:40. I remain short.
Where is Mr. Astro Crash?? Just like I thought, no where to be found.
What a surprise.
Mr. David Newman,
Please elaborate. My frontrunning, somebody else' front running, who? I need some clarity on the statement about frontrunning triggers. I'm not sure of your meaning. Thanks in advance.
Coy
Coy,
I think he means trading before
price triggers to confirm time.
Marcus7,
Oh, OK. I understand that. Thanks.
Cisco just took a major dive AH,
after rallying. Can't be good for tomorrow........if you're a bull.
Coy
My post wasn't directed at you. It was a general statement about following other peoples work.
david Newman
Marcus7
that's correct.
david Newman
oh oh gett all ready guys this is it
wasn't there a prophecy of the dollar moving up huge on the 4th? What ever happened to that?
Looks like the futures are going to crash over night.
bye bye bulls.
Ritchie
The EW count is getting a bit clearer for a change.
"Low degre": The move from 869: The scenario of 1030+ resulting from extension of 5th wave is getting to be very unlikely. A diagonal fifth either ended yesterday at 1007 or will end tomorrow at 1008-1014, the latter number being 38.2% retrace of P1. So we are down to two scenarios without a material difference. As a short, I will prefer a high above 1007 tomorrow. The drop from yesterday's high to today's low was a three wave a, b, c affair. A marginally higher hi provides an opportunity to start down with a a five wave move in 5-3-5, hopefully increasing the chance of a deeper retrace besides allowing us to add to shorts at better price. The bigger question remains how deep is B going to be, IF that is the count. For a lot of us who shorted around 950-961 that is an important quesion.
At " medium degree", the more important issue is this: does the very strong five wave move to say 1014 complete P2 rather than A of the third zig zag from March bottom? If so we are headed to 666 and below without a B or a C. 1014 does 38.2% retrace from ATH in Oct. '07 and NDX has already done 50% retrace followed by fives down. Bullish sentiment at 88% for last two days was same as October '07 high! My gut tells me we are going to do third zig zag' with B, C ahead, as in 1930 that will allow us to exceed the 88% bullish sentiment. Only problem with that is that it will be too much like 1930.
At "large degree", I remain of the view that we are in P2 and will break 666 either starting now or later after doing a B down and C up. I think the latter is more likely.
Let's see.
Agree with you RAVI.
What we have now is panic buying , which happens in the final stages of a bear rally.
Together with "the worst is over" , and "recession is over " now all over the papers - this tells me that we are close to a big move down soon at these euphoric , extreme levels.
we just made a new hi on futures market. 1008 to 1014 target in play.
A word about TA. Unexpected news skews the day, no matter how excellent your TA. That's what happened yesterday with our expected wave at 13:58. AIG who'da thunk.
Today's Picture -
Remember, don't hold me to the times. + or -.
The best part of today is the open.
The bias is positive till about 11:52.
We get a huge wollop to the downside 13:34. We close down.
It's a forcast. I can be wrong.
arre you guys still short?
anon.
No but I'm looking to short while CNBC bulls are just coming into the market.
peterk
wow, first forecasting a drop on the 5th, then the 10th, now the 17th. So basically we go either down or up next time...great stuff
Hi Guys, as I have mentioned in the past you Use fundamental analysis to determine what to buy. Use technical analysis and seasonality analysis to determine when to buy and sell. So Jays timing cant predict the news that some folks see positive and then they buy.... Fundamentals can be certain announcements that shake up the market and force buyers in because they dont want to loose out on the rally or Shorts get squeezed.... NEWs and the media sometimes create the environment for a momentum play.
So, YES, all the TA is pointing to a TOP but you cant control the news and when the news is good, go with the flow but do the following:
Develop positions over time with multiple transactions up or down, Each successive addition to a position should be equal or smaller than previous, Only profitable positions should be increased, When equity markets appear to be reaching a peak and profit taking becomes prudent, close out losing sector positions first, close out sector positions with low profits next and close out sector positions with the largest percentage gains last.
Anyhow, it doesnt always work, thus why I place small bets and win over time, hence why I have to work as a ENG to make 80% of my income........
Ah shut up joseph.
You got no idea what you're talking about.
please help us now that joseph's giving advice.
rudy
don't quit your day-job Joseph..lol
sammy
rudy and moe sound like pin heads
What the heck is this? Yahoo, golly folks.
C
Tough crowd today.
No-one except for you Joseph comes to Jay's blog to listen to fundamental analysis. You're on the wrong blog for that crap. BTW, youre completely wrong with your opinion. You need alot more experience and knowledge before giving out advice on timing.
chester g
Morning cash hi of 1008 (exact) was 2.70 lower than prmarket futures hi of 1010.70 on a cash equivalent basis.
So we have met the 1008-1014 target. This is also be in line with Coy's call of hi at opening and Jay's earlier call for Thursday as being the last good day for longs before we hit july 10 to july 20 down.
Jay, does you latest call for big down july 17-21 negate prior call or is part of it?
JOSEPH...your advice is completely outta place here. please go away.
lk
Holly smokes guys, wow. All I have to say with a smile is if this board is this tough GOD knows what would happen if you mean spirited folks were broke, down in out etc... All hell would break loose, but then some streat smart guy like me or folks would slap you silly. Thats a guarantee. Now of course youll respond with attacks. OIL is topping at $72 and Nat at 4.xx. For the TSX this is not so good but I believe the banks will do well next week with earnings so for the TSX Im still in a fair amont but took some out of OIL, just a tad....
Cheers
Joe
joseph---You're not street-smart with that advice. Youre an amateur.
Carl
Joseph lies thru his teeth. All BS.
sammy
....and joseph will respond with more inane babbling. Somebody please hack his computer and shut him down. I don't want him jinxing my 57 digit profits.
kc
hey guys.
Leave joseph alone. You gotta have some comic relief around here.
steve40
GOD bless you all,
Sorry to have bothered you. Hope you do well today. And yes I am a Eng who has done quite well by simply hard work, I admit, many others were much smarter than I but didnt work as hard as i did. Been lucky and landed a great job 15yrs ago before many, many others in the class and made it work with great, great money for the family when there was HUGE growth.
As mentioned OIL has topped out close to $72, hence why I pulled some money off the table on the TSX this week as mentioned in a post.
Take care
Joe
Why are you guys jumping all over him let him state his case never hurts to get other view points
its bcs of folks like Joe that i make a living tradin. keep drinking the kool-aid folks. -troy
ps - we are reversing from here and take out 1100 spx. stars or no stars, moon or no moon get long.
rrman
If I want that viewpoint all I have to do is turn on CNBC and listen to Kudloiw and Cramner. Had enuf of those idiots.
I want unbiased, scientific, analysis, not news reporting.
pp
where is Jay?
I agree.
Guys like Joseph keep my account growing. The fundies are still large under water.
kyle
Check my last few post stiff, I said TSX 11000 was tops. How, by looking at PF charts of course and MACD as a confirmation of trend. I find MACD useless as a preempt of trend...P&F bottom/tops and previous breakout/down bottoms and tops. I also said OIL hiting target of $72..... Made the calls prior to 11000Max and OIL 72 top... Mentioned I was pulling out a Tad on OIL but believe it will go up from Aug 10..
Jay/Ravi, if your here I woulnt mind hearing your take if will fall into next week or rise to about the Aug 14th or so. My thoughts are the EUR-USD broke 142.5 then 1.43 and we ran up more. So if the EUR-USD doesnt break 1.43 i think this pullback is weak. Hence we go up to at least 1015 which is Fib 38%....
Jay/Ravi, whats your astro stuff say for next week?
Too bad that's not your own analysis joseph. Who did you buy that from again? That analysis and your earlier post don't jive so I know it ain't you. If we followed strictly your advice I think we'd go broke pretty fast.
gg
Lots of clowns here that don't have a clue.
Pick on Joseph, complain about Jays mUltiple crash calls.
Well then, let's see all the BIG mouths step up with their "ACCURATE" market forecasts.
hE
hE,
where's yours clown.
Well lets see, I guess you cant read?? I also said we would rise into last Thurs and Friday and we did, hopefully you can stop being a prick and read. Some got pissed that I made the call far before it happened. Sure, sure, whatever you say boss gg/giggles : )
Hence, Im interested in what Jay and Ravi have to say about next weeks run to the 14th, are we going up, sideways or down? Want to prep over the wknd to get ready for either way. For OIL i believe its up next week,
you LIE joseph.
if forecasted(not your own) so well last week try doing it this week.
Your forecast are not your own work sleazeball.
You specialize in fundamental analysis not forecasting.
wakeup joseph and stop lying to everyone because we see right thru your BS.
Gman
"where's yours clown." ??? sheeesh
Allright giggles GG. You win,
Jay/Ravi, whats your thoughts about next week. Do we hit 1015 and possibly higher or do we test 950? Would like your feedback, everyone is watching Fibs, currency, EWT, OIL so would like your Astro and TA feedback
It's clear. Financials are the market controllers. To avoid a crash, all the PPT has to do is pump money into the likes of AIG, C, WFC, BAC.
Unfortunately most of you are abusing this blog of Jay.
Pl note it is HIS PERSONAL blog and he has rights to post whatever he wants. We are here to get a clue to his indicators.
It is pointless to discuss speculative ideas which are usually on forums all around. There can never be consensus.
We are NOT HERE for consensus but to hear a contrarian view.
LET JAY SPEAK his mind every week or day on macro trends and what he sees and if you can not post your positive opinion or some contributing thought PLEASE do not post nonsense and useless leg pulling ideas.
NO USE TO you or anyone.
Pl THINK of covering all your trades with your own care and vision and not rely on others. JAY analyzes based on astro aspects yet he also factors his feel and pulse of the market.
PLEASE DO NOT destroy this blog and stay away from useless posts.
PK
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