PREFERRED COUNT
This is how it looks with third extended, that will require fourth down and one higher hi for fifth.
1 978.51 991.20 12.69
2 991.20 980.74 -10.46
(i) 980.74 999.61 18.87
(ii) 999.61 993.2 -6.41
i of (iii) 993.20 1006.03 12.83
ii of (iii) 1006.03 1003.75 -2.28
iii of (iii) 1003.75 1027.59 23.84
iv of (iii) 1027.59 1021.8 -5.79
v of (iii) 1021.80 1035.82 14.02
(iii) all 993.20 1035.82 42.62
21.4% 1026.70 -9.12
From Ravi at 2;45 lookin good
LOW at 1;30 at 66 bars @ 1024.79
I use 23.6% fibo ratio X 42.62 = 10.06
1035.81- 10.06 = 10.25.76
its now 3;45pm and I got hungry- mkt rally usually follows- anyone else notice
this phenomena ??
Jay
78 comments:
Propens shows tomrrow starts UP
its not complete for the day yet, so i cant tell what happens on it later
Today
it ran up from 2992 to 3006 by mid day and fell to 2996
Tomrrow starts at 2995 and runs up to 3004 so far by mid morning??
but its really hard to get exact times on it-
tomrrow reading calls for an edgy start, but the above says otherwise.
I might have to add more shorts at 3;55pm
the DOWNSIDE has much more potential than the upside from here
Jay
Im going to
dji turned green lst minute, spx did not. easier to paint with 30 rather 500?
dji made new closing hi friday. djt yet to confirm
this week is 34 weeks from the january highs and 55 from last augusts highs,which adds weight to the top should occur this week evidence.
Does anyone know how to contact Flash? I couldn't find any e-mail info on his website.
Thanks.
We have met MINIMUM requirements for P2 top:
- If 978.51 was B, not 4 of A
- if the wave from there was a 5th wave extension, not 3rd wave extension
- if C ended with just those five waves
IF these three conditions are true, this is a major top. Will be somewhat confirmed if we break 987.51. I say somewhat, because of the first if listed above.
MKT: opening options p/c ratio at .55 or so; bulls slobbering wildly here; 28 Aug. 2009 dead ahead; have a great day everyone !
Flash
thought i would post my bar chart i watch
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SPX&p=15&yr=0&mn=0&dy=6&i=p65457341282&a=172593271&r=556
you can refresh this chart during the day and it should show present price.
BIG GAP UP!
Again!
Kenny
Jay.
Is everything alright with your system?
Maybe needs a tweak or two.
Just a suggestion. Continue to come back here.
thanks
Mark
Sold all my longs from 1023 at 1033...hope you got in for the ride. Sure it can go higher, but 10 spx points is awesome in my book
pg
did someone mention something about cratering...lol
pg
Jay, Ravi, Pg,Coy, Victor and others
Since the market is not acting like we want it to, please post your overnighters, so we can follow
Thanks
pg. lol.
I know it's ok to be wrong once in a while but if you really have a pretty good system, there is no way you can allow this to escape you.
The market is Dynamic and Price is King. So for the love of Kate Beckinsale please change your(Jay) outlook as price dictates.
Mark
FROM IAN For day traders this is top between 10 and 10:30. -- 11:10 low
Mortie called for 1031 on ES which we already reached. He is looking for ES 1015 for low. and then move up. Not time for big down yet.
http://bostonwealth.net/author/mortie/
sam
Stopped out of short QQQQ from 40.45
at 40.39. Waiting for new VC signal
1 978.51 991.20 12.69
2 991.20 980.74 -10.46
3 980.74 1035.84 55.1
4 1035.84 1022.48 -13.36
5 1022.48 1037.75 15.27
All 5 978.51 1037.75 59.24
21.4% 1025.08 -12.67
38.2% 1015.12 -22.63
50.0% 1008.13 -29.62
61.8% 1001.14 -36.61
Ravi, noe that five are done what are the next wave pattern? 3 or another 5 and which direction?
I gusess, we may have to wait for the first wave to complete here?
thanks. Ian and martie's calls are playing our well today. Low for this move could be 1020 spx cash.
1020
U can forget about it. Pretty sure about that.
If it does break it, then SHORT the cahunas out of the whole market.
Greg
Short %50 QQQQ at 40.50 via VC
U can see high volume churning and volatility in the indexes now.
Sin of Proffessionals selling to Mad Money Cramericans.
Greg
1020
That post is applying for today.
greg
Surendra
IF five are done next move is down to aleast correct the five up. My prior post showed the range of retrace.
It is possible that we need a slightly higher hi to actually finish the minute fives from yesterday's lows. It looks so on 15 mts chart but not on 1 minute chart. I give it low probability
the idea of another slightly higher hi cn be eliminated if we cross below
1026.93 the top of very minor first wave of the last up.
The real EW issue is that we had five down yesterday, so how can that be 4 correction.
Was yesterday's hi part of an extended correction. what would that imply. I need to give that a thought
Can anyone tell me if we make new intraday highs from here at 1033 Spx cash?
Sally
There is big activitiy going on in ooption market. already 5000 contract for spx 1030 put traded and prices are totally strange. Often more than bid and ask prices in big lots of hundreds. some suckers are buying at market and are getting punished.
cannot tell what is going on.
Sally, according to IAN and martie, we likely have seen the high of the day.
Surendra,
thanks.
ps. Are u a member of Ian's service?
And/Or do you have membership to his timesandcycles forum where many people contribute?
Just curious.
Sally
What happened to Coy readings for today
Reza,
We get by the low of 13:07 and this market can turn euphoric.
High 14:00
High 15:45
Coy
If COY'S low at 13:07 +- is higher than yesterday's low, then TREND is still up and higher high coming.
Mark
I tried subscription for one month. it is too detailed and good for day trading but too many hedges. Not going to renew.
IMHO Jay and ravi , PG COY and others are doing just fine.
swing trade is a smarter way to go. spx options are dangerous. the mionute you buy, you already losing ( like a new car out the dealer shop) because of big spread. you hope you are on the right side.
Propens index yesterday
show an UP day today till at least mid day, but it stays at somewhat less higher levels all day.
SPX High DID HIT at 10am, just 15 minutes after the 39 hour cycle low to high, and should NOT exceed that level
Power index shows a BIG drop tomrrow, but propens hasnt caught up to it yet.
Activity index was at 133, now at 100 and flat for last hour
However, the power index drop tomrrow agrees with Astro & for the next 3 days.
Today's variation really is NOT out of whack as we were warned by Ravi to expect the HIGH potential at 1037, and we got that within 15 minutes of the anticipated high
At least PG got it right.
Jay
Twice before I posted we'd end up near the end of the month after a mid month dip. This we're near enough done to start taking profits.
Cal
Cal,
good call. Any hint as to what your system is?
Is the TOP IN NOW OR NEAR/
saLLY
I'm going to repost, was on the phone and after reading my post it sounds like gibberish.
Twice before I posted Aug. would end near a high after a mid month dip.
Right now we're close enough for me to start taking profits.
Cal
Sally,
I'll not share many details about my big system. Cycles and patterns are my best tools on a S/T & I/T basis.
If the hi is in I'm not sure but it's darn close IMO.
Cal
Martie is calling for 1041 today. from his twitter
"MortiES' Tip ~ In a volatile market like this, try using a 15 min. line chart to see structure. $ES_F$$
about 2 hours ago from web
MortiES' Bullish from this level to the 1041 level. ES has made a statement this morning and I expect volatility, but upward movement$ES_F$$
about 2 hours ago from web
MortiES' Observations 25Aug2009 ~ market is simply volatile, so be careful. Take profits quickly. $ES_F$$
about 2 hours ago from web
MoritES' Update ~ that last chart I posted turned out to only be good for a ST trade. ES is reaching for 1041 now. $ES_F$$
about 2 hours ago from web
MortiES' PreMarket Thoughts 25Aug'09 http://bit.ly/ko4Ev $ES_F$$"
Twitter from Doug kass makes sense. very close to top a buy panic:
DougKass
Douglas Kass | Palm Beach, Florida 33480
The proximate reason for my Down Market call today is the plunging VIX - a sign of buying panic. $$ about 2 hours ago
It's 13:01 and we will be on our way toward a top shortly. It's not today, even though it may look like it later in the day. This up leg will go into tomorrow close (+200 Dow probable) at minimum, IMHO.
(Likely to open down, though)
Coy
uptrend line joining 19th low and yesterday's low is now broken slightly
Coy is right.
I'm looking for a 2:30--3:00 bottom and refersal into the close and another possible gap up tomorrow open.
David
Someone posted the charts at another site based on Bradley models. Jay, does it match with ur work.
http://content.screencast.com/users/chartwiz/folders/Jing/media/71f83383-4223-4411-920b-0185c99b0a79/2009-08-25_1250.png
http://www.screencast.com/users/chartwiz/folders/Jing/media/f52a20c4-dbad-45e5-b7ab-4b8cb1c319ee
FROM IAN JUST FEW MINUTES AGO:
Intraday Pattern: 10.30H, 11.15L, 12.45H, 2.00L, 3.40H
Actual: 10.05HOD (sofar), 11.00L, 5th wave new Highs may be in on the perfect back-kiss. If so, we are down into 8/28 Lows.
Intraday, I am looking now for a 2pm Low and an early last hour high. Tomorrow should be down.
mIKE
Thank you mIKE !
FROM DOUG KASS:
pressing spy short - in face of oil schmeising - as oil lives in SPY not QQQQ $$
10 minutes ago from TweetDeck
another factor that is giving me pause on market - is that credit has begun underperforming equity $$
about 1 hour ago from TweetDeck
The proximate reason for my Down Market call today is the plunging VIX - a sign of buying panic. $$
about 4 hours ago from TweetDeck
Ludicrus Forecast -- DOWN DAY TODAY $$
about 4 hours ago from TweetDeck
What a Lopsided Market: About 25% of Monday's volume was in three stocks: Fannie Mae (FNM), Freddie Mac (FRE) and Ci.. From RealMoneySilver
about 5 hours ago from twitterfeed
I cautioned earlier this AM on TheStreet.com to be wary of financials after run... given the reversal I view today as potentially impt $$
MIKE
Oil is down $2 + today. late today should be good short entry for 20 points.
Thanks David!!!
Still Short 50 percent QQQQ from 40.50 and holding as trends turn down.
Looking at Daneric's chanel it is not inconceivable to see 1040 by tomorrow unless it is broken at 1020
http://danericselliottwaves.blogspot.com/
Tape seems ready to launch into the close
pg
The SEC must outlaw front-running and high-frequency trading! You're easy pickins on a low volume days. You must set stops.
Surendra:
Dan's chart shows the top of wedge at yesteda's hi and today's hi kissed it again, tomorow it will be close to 1039. Where do you 1020 from?
Surendra
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_TwUS3GyHKsQ/SpL9PzIu4HI/AAAAAAAABfU/YriIhUF5yYo/s1600-h/spxdaily.png
nice bait and switch
pg
ravi, I was just looking at the channel he has posted.
"Channel is intact. Good chance of making a new high again today. A break of 1020 support will likely send it tumbling to at least 1007. Good luck got to work today!"
these are ES numbers
looks like another doji day for down day tomorrow
Doug Kass: rrom twitter
I am pressing shorts as the futures approach break even on the day $$
8 minutes ago from TweetDeck
Market is going down now. Abandon longs!!
David
surendra:
I see, you are referring to 1020 as BOTTOM of very short term channel on fututes. NOT top of wedge from Marh low.
Bought sds calls at the close. let us see what happens tomorrow
Check out the Daily candles at the June top.
You're getting the same candle patterns again.
Joey
Jay, you are quiet today. something big must be brewing? Please share with us
Either FLASH IS RIGHT is right with the next big top on Aug28 or Jay's right with Sept4.
Jay what's the consensus among your peers over at your yahoo and crystal forums?
thanks
Frank
If this pattern (the preliminary pattern looks so) replicates Jun, then Sep 4th is likely to be point after which we get a gap down. You need about 2 weeks for distribution. It is quite likely we will get a short opportunity in the 1044 to 1050 area. I feel there is no need to rush here. If you really need to front run it, short the futures on the close every day with a stop set at break even. If you get taken out, so be it. You'll get a better chance the next day.
It looks like we might get a rally of unknown distance from open.
I will be buying massive puts into this rally expecting a pullback starting today.
If market tanks from open , I will chase it.
Goodluck all
Brian
Alot of top callers out there...guess we haven't seen it yet then
pg
pg,
I agree. To early for top. But i am expecting small pullback tomorrow.
Mark
The Investor Intelligent Survey results are out and sentiment is now at extremes:
Bullish 51.6%
Bearish 19.8%
Bullish plus corrections over 80% (this is quite rare).
This is something to take note of since reading of this nature are normally a pre-cursor to a market correction. This is exactly the type of readings that are associated with tops. Again, price is first and foremost but these readings are not to be dismissed.
steveo
Jay,
pretty please with sugar on top, :-) make a new thread every day, even if you don't have any comment just make "Wednesdays thread" and "Thursdays thread" and so on.
Kind regards,
A
1028.17 bottom of first wave down was just violated before making another new low to keep a five down count.
It was not clear if 1037.75 was end of extended 3 or of 5. So there may be one more hi 1039 or bit more.
Today is driven by news and the media.
The high today is expected around midday.
Carl Futia has been more right than wrong over the past 4 or 5 months and Carl now has 1054 as a short term target then 1120 before year end. I'm paying more attention to Carl these days.
John
Re not clear 3 or 5,
On cash 1037 more clearly counts a top of extended 3, but on future it can be counted as 5.
Even if it was 3, for 4; a,b,c, x, a, b, c is possible. In that case we, just did x or are still in it.
Assuming, x is done, the seond a,b, c equals the first around 1016, which also near 38.2% retrace of extended 3.
So target for 4 is 1016-1018. The later, if old hi acts as a support.
Else, we are already in 5 and ready to shoot up.
Jay
I like the idea to start a new thread every morning.
re: Carl Futia....
I've tracked him too and he is a perma-bull. So he's getting a few more right since March which is no surprise.
You should have seen his calls during the 17 months the market tanked. His record was dismal at best.
fwiw
Mark
SELL SELL SELL
Seriously though. Loading up shorts.
Brian
there is a nice gap at 1017 and should price move there i would think 1007 is on deck that would complete the head and shoulders pattern and break out of the channel we have been trading in for some time
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SPX&p=15&yr=0&mn=0&dy=6&i=p65457341282&a=172593271&r=679
Where are the Bulls to come and save this? 3:30?
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