Thanks for the great input, yes even jjThe WAVE from the HIGh on the 25th to the 27th looks like abc x abc to a wv iv
the WAVE from the 25th at 10 am to the 28th at 10am looks like 5 waves to a NEW intraday high
the wave DOWN from that high now looks like a -b - c to 1023.13
the recovery wave UP from 1023 to 1028 also looks like an abc.
Ravi
what is that telling us?
and the spx is lower at 2pm, a 126 bar cycle
BAR cycles DO NOT have to be LOD's or lower lows
but they often are.
OBV on the 1 day/ 1 min chart is RISING at 2pm.
ACTIVITY Index is STILL FLAT AT 66
126 bar cycle would now look for 156 bars Monday low at 10am
and Monday also has a 78.6% /13 day cycle LOW at 11;55am
Tuesday 10am to noon rebound HIGh
Remember there is a postive lunar Jupiter aspect at 3;11pm TODAY
and the best part of the bear could be after that.
Jay
21 comments:
Thanks jay for confirming my biggner's wave count. from abc down a completed at 1023, b could go as high as 1034 and then c down equal to a to 1017. Back again at that 1016 level and leave us wondering where do we go from here.
Next higher high or P3?
MORTIE has called the top tentatively. End of five.
Will get email weekend update out ASAP. Don't want to make any hasty counts. $ES_F$$
6 minutes ago from web
Sorry about the server. Converting to a new server and having problems I guess. Technically ES made a W5 high, but IMO top not in.
8 minutes ago from web
fun time should begin next week.
CAUTION FROM FLASH:
MKT: Here we are at 8/28/09; opening p/c ratio a froth slobbering bull value of 0.48 wowsa !
about 5 hours ago from web
Jay and others,
My 2 cents thought, September 1 is the ban on flash trading. So I think until then doji's.
My post from the last thread:
The high hit wasn't very effective. I have greater confidence in a close down.
Jay:
On cash SPX, the move from 1016.2 to 1039.47 is difficult to count as a five.
1016.2 to 1019.58 was (i)
1019.58 to 1039.47 looks like an extended (iii).
Since then, we have done an a, b, c down to 1023.13. It is very deep, but did not go to the territory of baby (i) and therefore can still be counted as (iv). From there we did a i up to 1029.56 that has small slope but can be counted as a five wave i.
This leaves the possibility one higher hi in (v).
Must admit that it does not look proportional and the count looks a bit fuzzy.
i SEE BEARISH WEDGE HERE. cOY IS RIGHT WE COULD DROP SIGNIFICANTLY FROM HERE.
Another doji. may be three or four more of those into next week until we reach the apex of the rising wedge around 1044-1046 on a closing basis. then we will left to wonder, if it will breakout or breakdown. may be false breakout and the down to begin P3
Surendra:
Where do you see bearish wedge. Could you identify the two converging lines?
Surendra:
I suppose you are talking about the big wedge from March 6 bottom, that I described in earlier posts.
I was wondering if you saw another of shorter duration.
Hi Ravi
Yes its more blurry each time they hold 1020 - 1016 area
We really need to see a break down and its just not happening
THERE IS ANOTHER RALLY COMING, but it REALLy should come from a LOWER LeVEL
PROPENS continues TO DROP
mkt rising agains the odds
tech sell as well as I posted b4
Power index also shows weakness continuing.
Jay
Ravi, yes it is the big wedge. but nor from march though but from June top and onwards. . see here 7/27/09 video
http://www.freetradingvideos.com/vlog/default.asp?category=1
For today's activity I just eyeballed from 12 PM to 4 PM, which looked like the rising wedge.
We gapped up in the futures only to sell of right at the open back down. Last time we had that happen, the market fell 3% (2 weeks ago). In the past, we have had the market futures start lower and reverse higher, today was one of the first times in a while that we’ve seen the opposite happen.
Chris
Was traveling last 2 days so I could
not post. VC signal stopped out at
Friday close 40.44 QQQQ. I was short
from 40.50, so another small profit.
New signal 10:30 Monday AM, leaning
toward short QQQQ.
Just something to keep in mind before falling in love with the upside:
Just had a quick 20% drop in China, which is worth keeping an eye on to determine if that was just a correction preceding higher prices, or whether we’ve seen a top for this year.
mortie
Victor & Mortie
Thanks for the updates
Its still TOO early to confirm with the propens index, but the power index STILL says SMASH OPEN MONDAY at a low 300 level which rises to 500 by closing
10am is 156 bar low
10;07 is sun 135 moon = agitation
26 hrs = 10am
Looks SOLID for a low
could be similar to Aug17th open.
&
A Secondary low should hit at noon on 78.6% of the 13day cycle
Tuesday should be higher till at least mid day
Spt2nd at open is ANOTHER 39hr cycle JOLT
I WIll put all this up on new thread tomrrow
Jay
Thanks Jay.
Keep up the great work.
Mark
Unemployment is this Thur,I know many will ignore this but if the numbers are bad maybe will get a slight correction, if the numbers are good it will POP the market. What I found is when unemployment #s were bad the market really doesnt sell off that much but when good or better than expected the markets move up % wise much higher....
What was that? The move from 1016 to 1039 in six hours?
For a while EWI has avoided showing its count at such detailed degree. However, iis preferred count is that the move completed the fives of C from 978 and we are most likely done with P2. It does vaguely allow for the alternative that the first five waves are not quite done.
1016 does look like end of (iv), but counting a five wave impulse from there to 1039 is a stretch. Either we completed a iii of (v) there or completed an a, b, c for the first wave i of an ending diagonal. The first count will imply a quick new high to complete (v) on Monday/Tuesday and the possible end of C. The second count will imply two higher highs to complete the diagonal fifth a little later. In either case, no major break of the wedge is required.
So, I expect the five waves from 978 complete early coming week. The big question then would be, is it all of C or only the first wave of C.
Should it be sharply down Monday AM, as Jay is calling for, it would mean that 1016-1039 was five waves and Friday's later down up was a series of (i), (ii), i, ii. Both are a bit of stretch on one minute chart, so I will be surprised by that.
I prefer the diagonal fifth possibility, it will also be ideal for reloading the short position.
Monday is month close and Tue is month open ... so we should see a rally after 10AM Monday. Unless the bulls decide to abandon.
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