Sorry- had too many personal issues to deal with last 2 daysshould get back to normal now
___________________________________
Today is performing as expected
LOWER
a short term LOW should hit tomrrow 27th at
10am to 11am
BUT the 28th COULD end lower
10am = 52 hrs lo to lo - Aug17
258 bars at 10am
62%/13 day cycle at 10:43, could truncate to match above
ALL ONE WAVE so far from 978 to 1038 , and it SHOULD CONTINUE to Spt 1st or 2nd
power index shows 31st and 2st ARE UP DAYS
current MATH rounded off
978- 1038 = 60 pts
60X 38.2% = 23 pts
1038 - 23 = SPX 1015 SEE RAVI's numbers - maybe today's close??
Might break below that TOmrrow at 10am to 50% or 30 pts = 1008
NO GUARANTEES
just conjecture based on FIBO math
TODAY so far
Activity index at 100 all morning
Propens index looks for low also tomrrow AM
power index looks for lower close today, and lower on Friday, but might not be lower than today- waiting for propens to catch up with it.
43 comments:
Jay, Ravi, Coy, PG,
Any updates?
Any thoughts on FXP
Still 50 percent short QQQQ from
40.50.
A thought provoking comment from Cahhugner blog:
http://chaugner.blogspot.com/2009/08/spinning-t...
I have a tohught regarding your story about bear turning into bull. Now we all know the super computers at GS and others have algorithms written to gauge the sentiment. They can read all blogs in nano seconds and arrive at conclusion for the moment. ( see NY Times article ; mining the web -- http://www.nytimes.com/2009/08/24/technology/in...
If we create a dummy blogs to show we are all super bulls, may be we can fool the computers of hedge funds. just a thought. If they read our minds, why not fool with their's
Thanks Victor,
are in qid or tyh
Today is performing as expected
LOWER
a short term LOW should hit tomrrow 27th at
10am to 11am
BUT the 28th COULD end lower
10am = 52 hrs lo to lo - Aug17
258 bars at 10am
62%/13 day cycle at 10:43, could truncate to match above
ALL ONE WAVE so far from 978 to 1038 , and it SHOULD CONTINUE to Spt 1st or 2nd
power index shows 31st and 2st ARE UP DAYS
current MATH rounded off
978- 1038 = 60 pts
60X 38.2% = 23 pts
1038 - 23 = SPX 1015 SEE RAVI's numbers - maybe today's close??
Might break below that TOmrrow at 10am to 50% or 30 pts = 1008
NO GUARANTEES
just conjecture based on FIBO math
TODAY so far
Activity index at 100 all morning
Propens index looks for low also tomrrow AM
power index looks for lower close today, and lower on Friday, but might not be lower than today- waiting for propens to catch up with it.
Hadik posted high for Spt 2 to 4, my take is the 2nd at 3;30
BUT could be lower than 9/1- too early to call it that precisely.
more later
Thanks for the GREAT comments
Im still playing catch up at 11am
Jay
4??
a 1037.75 1028.16 -9.59
b 1028.16 1036.26 8.1 -84.5% of a
c 1036.26 1021.57 -14.69 1.531803962 of a
all (a) 1037.75 1021.57 -16.18
x 1021.57 1032.19 10.62 -65.6% of (a)
(b) ?? 1032.19 1016.01 -16.18 1 x (a)
1032.19 1006.01 -26.17924 1.618 x (a)
3 980.62 1037.75 57.13
38.20% 1015.93 -21.82366
50% 1009.19 -28.565
61.80% 1002.44 -35.30634
THANKS jAY!!!!!!!
LOVE YA BRO!!!!!!!!
gh
Reza
QID
reza
When you are in a ETF, such as FXP, leveraged or not, you need to trade based on the underlying index.
The chart of ETF, specially leveraged ones, are specially useless for calculating targets.
FLASH CALL:
mAY BE HE IS LOOKING FOR A BIG RALLY TO 9700 FIRST AND THEN COLLAPSE TO 8400
good luck w that for now ! RT @DougKass I believe the US equity market has made a top for the year - My Street.com column coming up #mkt
about 2 hours ago from web
MKT: 9700 DOW above us and 8405 DOW below us goin into last tradin day of SEPT. 30, 2009; ready ?
3 minutes ago from web
pg,
are you short now?
thanks
Sally
A call for slightly higher high next week in 1040 spx 9700 dow area makes sense if we are in 4 correcting extended 3.
On the other hand, if we are done with five up at 1037.75, then the next hi will be a third higher degree wave from 978.51 and that will blast through the top line of the wedge.
I think that the former is the case and we will not break the wedge next week. A top loss for short position is a must when we get there.
Ravi,
Thanks
Sally
Dont get your hopes up for dow 8400 any too soon, and or 9700 either.
The Current trend from Aug17th is running out of gas.
the close UNDER 1033 seems to indicate such.
in other words, the MMATH levels are
1002
1033
1064
To get to 1064, they MUST first CLOSE above 1033.
We will see just how weak or strong the spx is in the next 2 days thru Friday
ASTRO OUTLOOK
Friday has potential to become a pivot for the next rally, but will it be a continuation of the trend, OR an X wave within a 3 stage decline to SPT 8th.
it does look like a 5 wave decline from 1038 is in progress to make an "a" of wave 4 within this series from Aug 17th.
IF SO,
then Spt 1st and or 2nd should end the "b" or "x" wave high, which should be lower than 1033.
That leaves Spt 8th for the "c" wave low - & please DONT ask me HOW low - any of you can do the fibo math as easily as I , and its only conjecture.
The above also indicates a FIFTH wave should occur from Spt 8th to possibly the 14th
On SPT 15th, there is
Saturn 180 Uranus
which could have similar repercussions as Saturn 180 Neptune on Feb 27th -2007= dow lost 400 pts that day, and the real estate bubble began to leak out.
more later
Jay
are we forming a H&S with neckline around 1022???
1037.75-1022=15.75
1022-15.75=1006.25
I believe that was the last high of the day!!!!!
Bias gets lower as we go into the close. Even though we get follow up on the downside tomorrow, tomorrow looks to have a turn to the upside.
Coy
I think FLASH is right. we see 9700 first because Doug Kass is widely followed and he has anounced with megaphone that top is here.
or as Jay says, down first and then a big rally to prove Doug wrong and then collapse
Cramer is pulling the plug:
"I don't want drama, I don't want to go against the big guy -- not worth it for 400 points. I am simply saying I get it, there are problems, problems that will create short, sharp, shallow dips every time they hit the consciousness of the public.
And I'll buy the market on them, because the fear and belief of doom will be so palpable, because the naysayers will be out in such full force, that you have to take the other side of the trade, even Doug's trade."
This cannot be the top
I see that Ravi and I are on the SAME page, and have not spoken to each other about it as yet.
A wave 4 correction to appears to be happening from the wave 3 high 1038 - 978 = 60pts
We got 39 hours from Aug 17 @ 10am to Aug25th @ 10am LOW TO HIGH
from Aug 25th at 10am we should then get 26 hours to possibly Monday Aug31st at 10am, or it could truncate to 4pm on Friday.
which has a 150 bar cycle also
ADD 39 hours from Aug 25th = Spt 2nd at 10am, and or 3:30pm for a secondary turn lower as on the 25th.
((and we wonder why 10am has such an important role in mkt turns))
Oct 31st at 10am + 39 hours = Spt9th @ 10am
OR
39hrs From Aug 28th at 4pm = Spt 8th at 4pm
Aug17th at 10am + 52 hours = Aug27th at 10am = 258 bars =
& 62%/13 day cycle LOWS converge
Jay
GAP UP tomorrow.
Make it happen.
jj
FLASH' CHALLANGE TO DOUG KASS:
@DougKass your tippy top call; Let's see where we are at on FRI. of this week first, 8/28
about 1 hour ago from web in reply to DougKass
A SMART STRATEGY FROM EVIL SPECULATOR:
WE WILL NEVER CATCH THE TOPS AND BOTTOMS
You know what to do - forget about those short term gyrations - focus on the long term. IF we are so lucky to get another rip to the upside today I will use it to add to my growing list of long term OTM puts (about 4 - 6 months out).
Nothing else to say about this mess - it’s the whipsaw before the storm.
Hi Jay:
Wave 3 started from 980.62 and NOT 978.51 where wave started.
Ravi
Coy - 2;45 pm abc high
3pm turned DOWN
Astro says they should head lower into the close
cycles say lower tomrrow
at 10am
Jay
3;15 and they are hanging tough
activity was at 66, now ticked up at 100 @ 3;15- delayed reaction.
propens jumps UP after possible lower open at 3002 to 3009
power index shows possible lower open also - the readings are not as clear as I have seen in the past, and that hasa also been a problem all this month
Later
Jay
not much change
Ravi
TIME of start of this wave should be 10am on 17th which I recorded as 978.51
&
regardless of price level
that time also coincided with 100% /13 day cycle at 10:30- truncated to 10am
980.62 -- YES wave 3 on 19th at 9:45am
Sorry, If my counting is NOT exact- Im more eyeball than you are.
however, we got to the TOP of WAVE 3 at 1037.75, which I rounded to 1038
Next we see the same action as we should be in wave 4 of this current trend
Jay
wtf is going on with these markets today?
greg
Didn't we have few weeks ago a similar situation where we had five or more doji days. I do not remember the outcome, if any one knows.
sam
I just went long for a scalp this morning from 1023 to 1031 right on the homebuilder report. My day ended there since I figured it'd be choppy. Not going to post every single trade real time since it affects my timing. I hinted at what I was planning though if you read my last post. We are obviously coiling for a big move and I have no idea or bias where we head tomorrow, but if I see opportunity tomorrow morning, I'll try it.
pg
three dojis and THIS -- "The government agency that guarantees you won't lose your money in a bank failure may need a lifeline of its own.
The coffers of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. have been so depleted by the epidemic of collapsing financial institutions that analysts warn it could sink into the red by the end of this year.
That has happened only once before – during the savings-and-loan crisis of the early 1990s" gives the market a reason to go down tomorrow
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