Mark if you're out there, I'll be posting on trading perspective blog from now on. At least they post their trades real time with confidence and flexibility. Jay's talented, but his longer term predictions don't help my style of trading. As you can tell my time frames are measured more in hours than days.
I agree with Dan' and EWI, that the possibilty that B itself ended Monday is very real and that we did not do 5 waves up yet from Monday low (EWI gives the two counts a 50/50).
IF we go to a higher hi tomorrow even a bit that will likely make it i of C with the need for shorts to cover at the next retrace in ii of C. (On one minute chart, the down from top today is NOT clearly 5,it is iffy).
Here is what I will do. Stay with shorts if we don't go above today's hi at all. If we go above 999.61, I will wait for the next minor correction down in a a,b,c and book my losses on the shorts. I may even go long at that level, of the next correction.
Tomorrow, perhaps 8:30 AM, we should find out when the econmic news comes out.
Ravi here is another take from a very good EW person, who seem to agree with jay for big down day tomorrow. I am curious what is your take on this analysis. thanks for the update. MortiES’ EOD Update 19Aug2009 ~ Which Way Tomorrow? his chart calls for 960
http://bostonwealth.net/author/mortie/
"August 19th, 2009 That was quite a rally today. IMO we are still in W4. It’s just becoming a little complex. Today’s rally felt and looked more like a corrective wave than an impulsive wave. If it had been more impulsive to me, I would be calling W4 over and W5 underway. It still could be, but it’s not my first choice. I’ll be looking for an impulsive wave down tomorrow toward the 38.2% retracement level. I have a “detailed” path drawn on the chart It isn’t necessary for W4 to go any lower to satisfy the requirements of a W4, so be on you toes and go with the flow. I haven’t looked at EWI, but I’m sure they will be looking for a major correction down. I’ll check them when they post later tonight. I get uneasy when I am in agreement with them in the short-term."
No he's not me. He seems like a very good trader visiting the site a few times and he's flexible. I'm going to try to just post trades and limit writing my opinion down there since I think it affected my trading today. Jake, I agree...ew works best in the rear view mirror. I'll still be pg when I post there.
His count of (a)=a,b, c to 978.51; then(b)to 999.61 today; to be followed by another a, b, c down is same as my and Dan's preferred count as far as the short run of 5-10 days is concered. He just appears to be more sure of the next a, b, c down to 960, which is also my target.
Where he differs from EWI and Dan is that he labels 1018 as (iii) of A rather than (v) and end of A. Hence his label of (iv) down rather than B doen for move from 1018. Remember, my saying time and agian that if 1018 was hi, the (iv) on way to there is not clear. Therfore, I can buy his count that we are in (iv) rather than B. There is very little difference in the short run because (ii) of A at 872.81 was pretty close to beginning of A at 869.32.
His count (iii) 872.81 1018.00 145.19 for (iv) 983.74 -34.26 23.60% 962.54 -55.46 38.20% 945.41 -72.60 50% 928.27 -89.73 61.80%
The 38.2% is at 962.54, compare this to Dan and EWI where 38.2% is at 961.20:
EWI and Dan Count
A 869.32 1018.00 148.68 for B 982.91 -35.09 23.60% 961.20 -56.80 38.20% 943.66 -74.34 50% 926.12 -91.88 61.80% So, in the short run they are almost the same. In bothe cases a higher hi tomorrow makes it likely that either his (iv) or the alternative B was done at 978.51. Hence the importance of tomorrow's opening action.
IF and only IF, we go higher tomorrow, 1005.76 is a possible target as shown below and which also happens to fill last gap ast 1005.75:
C or iii 978.51 991.05 12.54 b or ii 991.05 980.62 -10.43 83.2% c or iii 980.62 999.61 18.99 1.51 of a or i start (c) or end iv 999.61 993.22 -6.39 34% of iii ? or c if v up 993.22 1005.76 12.54 i=v
In that case, as I said earlier, I will cover all shorts on next retrace taking losses, most likely in 992-999 area:
((i) if v happens 978.51 1005.76 27.25 (ii) if v of (i) 999.33 -6.43 23.60% 995.35 -10.41 38.20% 992.14 -13.63 50% 988.92 -16.84 61.80%
If no new hi, I will stay short for 960-962 target.
Jobless claim news was not good. Not too bad either. In pre-market,after being almost 5 points higher than yesterday's HIGH, we fell to around yesterday's hi.
What is important is that in cash session we do not go above yesterday's hi, otherwise the count will change as i pointed out in yesterday night's postings.
ravi,when counting waves,do you not count globex moves? ive found a number of moves have completed wave structure out of hours and fell/rose from there.usually the long standing gaps that take ages to fill.
delta wise,the next turn coming up is centred for tuesday/wednesday and should be a low,but this has been the hardest sequence to gage i can remember,turns have been small and very hard to label after the inversion window.
After looking at move from Monday on 1 minute chart, I have changed my prior analysis that move above yesterday's hi would be five waves and therefore (i) of next upmove.
As shown below, an a, b,c from Monday did need one higher hi today that may have occured at 1004.08 or may need a small up down to close 1005.75 gap.
Here is the main count and detail of c:
a 978.51 991.20 12.69 b 991.20 980.74 -10.46 -82% of a c?? 980.74 1004.08 23.34 1.84 of a
c Detail (i) 980.74 989.21 8.47 (ii) 989.21 985.66 -3.55 -42% i of (iii) 985.66 989.79 4.13 ii of (iii) 989.79 986.45 -3.34 iii of (iii) 986.45 998.4 11.95 iv of (iii) 998.40 995.91 -2.49 v of (iii) 995.91 999.61 3.7 (iii) all 985.66 999.61 13.95 (iv) 999.61 993.22 -6.39 -46% (v) ?? 993.22 1004.08 10.86 1.28 of i (v) ?? 993.22 1006.92 13.70 1.618 of i
So, I have decided to suspend decision to cover shorts on next 3 wave down. It is still an open issue if 978.51 was the bottom of correction from 1018 OR we do a second zig zag to 960 area.
It would seem they are just squaring up positions for option exp. I don't think a move will come till next week myself. the bulls are having there way on the light volume. Like everyday when the down comes it will be swift and furious. Maybe Wed of next week
You have to look at both SPX cash only and data including after market. Normally, you go with count that fits both, which often happens even if the extreme prints are different. Well, if they are in conflict, you more alternatives and more confusion. That is market.
Thanks ravi. I am in the same boat as you. Hope we can slavage some and most importantly we do not lose willingness to trade. I gusess this is old leeson that many tradres have learned to emphasize stop loss.
33 comments:
Update from Mahendra:
Wednesday update - our target will be achieved in metals and dollar index is toward $89......More - Wednesday, August 19, 2009, Mahendra Sharma
sam
Any EW people here willing to post their trades real time???
Jake,
Until someone can prove that EW
is a tradeable method, it is nothing more than analytical fun.
Post YOUR trades. Ravi, do you trade?
Mark if you're out there, I'll be posting on trading perspective blog from now on. At least they post their trades real time with confidence and flexibility. Jay's talented, but his longer term predictions don't help my style of trading. As you can tell my time frames are measured more in hours than days.
pg
pg,
And the ew people won't post their trades real time. Why?? Because they
can't make money trading the and ifs or buts of ew.
Today's rally blew away a lot of ew counts (and therefore scenario).
My preferred count, after today's rally is same Dan's
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_TwUS3GyHKsQ/SoxnXGORlYI/AAAAAAAABbk/QxWsJZZ0quw/s1600-h/spx+30.png
I agree with Dan' and EWI, that the possibilty that B itself ended Monday is very real and that we did not do 5 waves up yet from Monday low (EWI gives the two counts a 50/50).
IF we go to a higher hi tomorrow even a bit that will likely make it i of C with the need for shorts to cover at the next retrace in ii of C. (On one minute chart, the down from top today is NOT clearly 5,it is iffy).
Here is what I will do. Stay with shorts if we don't go above today's hi at all. If we go above 999.61, I will wait for the next minor correction down in a a,b,c and book my losses on the shorts. I may even go long at that level, of the next correction.
Tomorrow, perhaps 8:30 AM, we should find out when the econmic news comes out.
Ravi
Ravi here is another take from a very good EW person, who seem to agree with jay for big down day tomorrow.
I am curious what is your take on this analysis. thanks for the update.
MortiES’ EOD Update 19Aug2009 ~ Which Way Tomorrow? his chart calls for 960
http://bostonwealth.net/author/mortie/
"August 19th, 2009
That was quite a rally today. IMO we are still in W4. It’s just becoming a little complex. Today’s rally felt and looked more like a corrective wave than an impulsive wave. If it had been more impulsive to me, I would be calling W4 over and W5 underway. It still could be, but it’s not my first choice. I’ll be looking for an impulsive wave down tomorrow toward the 38.2% retracement level. I have a “detailed” path drawn on the chart It isn’t necessary for W4 to go any lower to satisfy the requirements of a W4, so be on you toes and go with the flow. I haven’t looked at EWI, but I’m sure they will be looking for a major correction down. I’ll check them when they post later tonight. I get uneasy when I am in agreement with them in the short-term."
sam
PG
THANKS.
what's your handle there?
Is the guy's name who runs the blog "perspective?
is that you?
Mark
No he's not me. He seems like a very good trader visiting the site a few times and he's flexible. I'm going to try to just post trades and limit writing my opinion down there since I think it affected my trading today. Jake, I agree...ew works best in the rear view mirror. I'll still be pg when I post there.
Sam:
Thanks for referring to Mortie's count.
His count of (a)=a,b, c to 978.51; then(b)to 999.61 today; to be followed by another a, b, c down is same as my and Dan's preferred count as far as the short run of 5-10 days is concered. He just appears to be more sure of the next a, b, c down to 960, which is also my target.
C 1018.00 978.51 -39.49
(b) ? 978.51 999.61 21.10
(c) ?? 999.61 960.12 (c) = (a)
Where he differs from EWI and Dan is that he labels 1018 as (iii) of A rather than (v) and end of A. Hence his label of (iv) down rather than B doen for move from 1018. Remember, my saying time and agian that if 1018 was hi, the (iv) on way to there is not clear. Therfore, I can buy his count that we are in (iv) rather than B. There is very little difference in the short run because (ii) of A at 872.81 was pretty close to beginning of A at 869.32.
His count
(iii) 872.81 1018.00 145.19
for (iv) 983.74 -34.26 23.60%
962.54 -55.46 38.20%
945.41 -72.60 50%
928.27 -89.73 61.80%
The 38.2% is at 962.54, compare this to Dan and EWI where 38.2% is at 961.20:
EWI and Dan Count
A 869.32 1018.00 148.68
for B 982.91 -35.09 23.60%
961.20 -56.80 38.20%
943.66 -74.34 50%
926.12 -91.88 61.80%
So, in the short run they are almost the same. In bothe cases a higher hi tomorrow makes it likely that either his (iv) or the alternative B was done at 978.51. Hence the importance of tomorrow's opening action.
IF and only IF, we go higher tomorrow, 1005.76 is a possible target as shown below and which also happens to fill last gap ast 1005.75:
C or iii 978.51 991.05 12.54
b or ii 991.05 980.62 -10.43 83.2%
c or iii 980.62 999.61 18.99 1.51 of a or i
start (c) or end iv 999.61 993.22 -6.39 34% of iii ? or c
if v up 993.22 1005.76 12.54 i=v
In that case, as I said earlier, I will cover all shorts on next retrace taking losses, most likely in 992-999 area:
((i) if v happens 978.51 1005.76 27.25
(ii) if v of (i) 999.33 -6.43 23.60%
995.35 -10.41 38.20%
992.14 -13.63 50%
988.92 -16.84 61.80%
If no new hi, I will stay short for 960-962 target.
Good morning Jay et al.
Any commentary this morning or everything still status quo from last night?
Jerry
Asian, EU markets up so far. Unemployment up.
Jobless claim news was not good. Not too bad either. In pre-market,after being almost 5 points higher than yesterday's HIGH, we fell to around yesterday's hi.
What is important is that in cash session we do not go above yesterday's hi, otherwise the count will change as i pointed out in yesterday night's postings.
49 minutes to opening bell
Leading indicators and Phila Fed report due 10:00.
If one includes after and before market, mkt will have to go above this AM pre-market to make 5 wave up from Monday low and not yesterday's cash hi.
It is never to easy to nail this.
That AM premkt hi was equivalent of SPX cash 1004.31
ravi,when counting waves,do you not count globex moves? ive found a number of moves have completed wave structure out of hours and fell/rose from there.usually the long standing gaps that take ages to fill.
delta wise,the next turn coming up is centred for tuesday/wednesday and should be a low,but this has been the hardest sequence to gage i can remember,turns have been small and very hard to label after the inversion window.
Jay,
Down day indeed! There's a high negative bias over the market, for some reason hasn't found it's mark yet.
I have the lowest point today at 14:10
I'm not ruling out Friday as being another down day.
Coy
COY
thats my take also'
Im waiting
its 10am and they hit 1004.08
11am has moon 120 pluto
could be the actual turn as its also an hourly
Jay
After looking at move from Monday on 1 minute chart, I have changed my prior analysis that move above yesterday's hi would be five waves and therefore (i) of next upmove.
As shown below, an a, b,c from Monday did need one higher hi today that may have occured at 1004.08 or may need a small up down to close 1005.75 gap.
Here is the main count and detail of c:
a 978.51 991.20 12.69
b 991.20 980.74 -10.46 -82% of a
c?? 980.74 1004.08 23.34 1.84 of a
c Detail
(i) 980.74 989.21 8.47
(ii) 989.21 985.66 -3.55 -42%
i of (iii) 985.66 989.79 4.13
ii of (iii) 989.79 986.45 -3.34
iii of (iii) 986.45 998.4 11.95
iv of (iii) 998.40 995.91 -2.49
v of (iii) 995.91 999.61 3.7
(iii) all 985.66 999.61 13.95
(iv) 999.61 993.22 -6.39 -46%
(v) ?? 993.22 1004.08 10.86 1.28 of i
(v) ?? 993.22 1006.92 13.70 1.618 of i
So, I have decided to suspend decision to cover shorts on next 3 wave down. It is still an open issue if 978.51 was the bottom of correction from 1018 OR we do a second zig zag to 960 area.
It would seem they are just squaring up positions for option exp. I don't think a move will come till next week myself. the bulls are having there way on the light volume. Like everyday when the down comes it will be swift and furious. Maybe Wed of next week
Astro8
What happened to the big meldown from 8-17? Gez
X
after8
You have to look at both SPX cash only and data including after market. Normally, you go with count that fits both, which often happens even if the extreme prints are different. Well, if they are in conflict, you more alternatives and more confusion. That is market.
Hi astro8:
Option Expiration sure is having an effect. Option writers have interest in making sure that all those put options a 980 area expire worthless.
Do you have the latest on where the max pain point is for this OE?
Ravi,
Where is your stop at this point?
And you are short from what price??
Thank you.
Andrew P:
I am short from 961 on average. Usually, I cover and re-enter when wrong. This time, I abandoned my discipline with bad consequences.
Back to the learning that trading discipline is more important than reading the market.
Rather than stop loss, I will get out on the next minor a, b, c down if I am convinced that a five wave i has occurred for the up move.
Ravi,
Thanks. And Good Luck.
Thanks ravi. I am in the same boat as you. Hope we can slavage some and most importantly we do not lose willingness to trade. I gusess this is old leeson that many tradres have learned to emphasize stop loss.
sam
hey X
8/17 was the melt down
Jay
Just because Im asking for more, doesnt mean they have to give it to me.
BUT
they will
SPY max pain is 98
http://www.optionpain.org/option/OptionPain/Option-Pain.php
that is a handy link
ASTRO 8
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