So far, out of the 20 signs, there's one that's sending up a red signal flare - U.S. sovereign debt CDS, which is directly linked to the dollar (see chart above).
The U.S. does not have control over many of the indicators listed here, but at least the No. 1 risk factor -- the U.S. dollar -- is influenced by the national debt and by the monetary and fiscal policies set by the U.S. government and the Federal Reserve.
The longer the debt ceiling debate lingers, the more likely the bond market would start reacting and demanding higher interest rates. A sovereign credit downgrade as a result of missing the debt ceiling deadline would just translate into billions more in interest payments, piling on to the existing debt.
The United States is not like Iceland or Argentina, resorting to default as retorted by some could mean calamity not only to its citizens, but also to the rest of the world. Unless the government and this Congress get their act together, there will be no bailout, and instead of one lost generation to the Great Recession, there could be multi-generation missed in the next Grand Depression.