|July 8th at 8:30am|
And just like the LOW at 1258, everyone was looking for 1240 to 1228
PC ratios yesterday are 80% Bearish -
Today's psych includes yesterday's Psych
TODAY = A ROLLER COASTER RIDE & EKG confirms it as well as POWER DATA.
Resources PLUNGE was yesterday's but that obviously did not happen
BUT that does NOT negate the Forecast
I dont think this is the right time to GO BULLISH
BRADLEY turns have been good this year and MOSTLY have hit on highs- Yesterday
Yesterday was an 8 day HIGH. making today and 8 day TURN
All the Non Farm Payroll reports int he summer months have been WORSE than expected
and the revisions also
I dont think today will be any exception, and may be even worse
Im expecting CONGRESS to WALK out on budget meeting on Sunday, and ONLY
a major market decline will get them off their complacent Butts.
Today's open could catch BULLS BY SURPRISE in BIG WAY.
The ABOVE was SENT AS AN EMAIL to one of the VPN members at 8am
The charts were sent last NIGHT
THE next paragraph was posted at my Yahoo group this AM by one of the members of that group
1-Since 2000 to 2010,with the exception of 2007,actual data release in July has been worse than the consensus Forecast.
2-Since 2000 to 2010,with the exceptions of 2005 and 2006,July NFP release has been worse than June´s release...Extremely worse during the past 2 years.
3-July´s release consensus forecast for this year is 97k,vs June actual release of 54k,source : http://www.forexfactory.com/#details=32878
So,believing that very probably the numbers of today´s release are going to be worse than expected is the right thing to do.
Regarding Impact of NFP release on SPX...
1-On July 2nd 2010,Friday, the release reported -125k,later revised to -221k...vs +431k(+433k revised) in June...data for April,May and June had been very positive and growing(162k,190k,431k)..so,what happened beginning next week ? A rally that took the SPX from the 1020´s into the 1370´s in 10 months.
2- On May 6th 2011,+244 actual(+232k revised)the NFP release was the best for the last 11 months,and was the 7th consecutive month with positive data...what happened then? After a couple of updays,the market proceeded with the downmove started on May 2nd for a 120+ points loss in 1.5 months.