Math & More

Feb 9th spx = 870
feb 23 spx = 743

Difference = 127

127 X 38.2% = 48 pts = spx 791
50% = 807
625 = 822
dare i go to 78% = 842, never happen

Like I wrote
3 legs
tomorrow at 9:45 and or 11am at the latest should complete wave"a"
should make it to 790 and thats 18 pts higher than today @ 773 = 150 dow
then wave "b" as the day fades into selling to complete that leg on the 26th

BUT then theres the 27th and it might look like a run for the roses
IF they can get over 790, then 807 would be a logical target,
but I doubt anything higher could be achieved.

That ends MICRO wave 4
and March 2nd starts micro wave 5

Heres another interesting tid bit of info:

TONIGHTS NEW MOON the Pres
8:30pm & the reading says
Inspiration, compassion,
Coax a private DREAM to grow
DUH, his speech tonight falls right into place
Jay

This WEEK"S GAME PLAN

IT took 32 tr days to get to FEB 23rd from the Jan 6th high

Very typical time frame, but why?

32 / 4 = 8 segments of 4 tr days
Next trade day segment is the 27th which SHOULD be a HIGH

THEN add 4 more = March 5th which reads for a LOW

Lastly is March 11th, maybe at the OPEN, but I think its the
CLOSE of the 10th for a MAJOR MAJOR LOW

more later
Jay

GOLD

GOLD ran up to 1000 last week
the wave is labeled as a "B" wave or even an "X"
which is an intervening high
that means the NEXT most important level
should be under that previous low @ $712 on Oct 10th
Oct 10th was one major low also for the DOW
that took 4 months to get back to 1000
BUT it took 8.6 months to get from the FIRST 1000 to oct10th low
SO, NOW the trend should be DOWN for the next 8.6 months

Jay

whats a traders delight ?

SELL ALL RALLIES

im still expecting a rally high on Tuesday, and maybe open on WEdnesday

BUT

the 25th and 26th are expected to sell off

I previously mentioned March 10th several times for an important LOW
THAT MEANS
from here to March 10th, the trend is still DOWN

so SELL any rallies
Such as the close of Feb24th ~~~~~ expect DOWN on 25 & 26
close of Feb 27th ~~~~~~~~expect lower on March 2nd
Close of March 3rd~~~~~~~expect down on March 4th & 5th
Close of march 6th ~~~~~ expect climactic selling on 9th & 10th

I dont know how to make it any clearer than that

Of course, its NEVER just that easy, but at least this offers a guide

More later
Jay

This WEEK"S GAME PLAN

REBOUND AT HAND

Yes a rebound this week, but it WONT be that easy

IT should take the from of 3 legs

High on 24th @ Merc 0 Jupiter, new moon & Jupiter II Pluto

DIVE on 25th & 26th

Rebound to peak on 27th = Bradley date

Simple but complex at the same time

More Later
Jay

WHERE now Brown Cow ??

THE MAIN trend is DOWN

HOW DOWN? you ask, Good question, thanks for asking

According to ONE very astute Elliottician we can expect the SPX to drop to 704,
and IMO< that should be on a closing basis

That same person has also indicated March 10th as a MULTI Month cycle LOW

SO< now we have March 10th at 704 SPX

________________________________________________
NOTE THE FOLLOWING
ASTRO AGREES with the ABOVE date

IS THAT the END of it ?? you ask, gee another good question
NOT IMO

As mentioned b4, June 13th holds out the potential for a MULTI YEAR LOW

Lets not get too far off the beaten track, but a 9 month rally to March 2010 is very possible
___________________________________________________

OK, now back to the present
From here to March 10th can get CRAZY with MANY daily changes

IF you are an investor- get into Money mkt and stay till June13th
IF you are a trader - STAY TUNED right here for daily UPDATES

more later
Jay

Editorial NOTE

I HATE THE MEDIA !!!

Fox news commentary this Sat AM

Those people are LIVING in a FOG

even the most astute are WAY OFF BASE

can you imagine - Fox news ??
BLAMING LAST WEEK's market decline on the ADMINISTRATION
STUPID STUPID STUPID

and this outcry is NOT in response to FOX's over abundance of Republican views, but you cant help but hear it in their tone

I dont know WHY I bother listening to them at all

Maybe IF I complain LOUD enuf, I will be invited to the White House also {gg}

BUSH admin gave $350 B tot he banks and they horded it or bot other banks
Didnt anyone tell them they were supposed to make loans with it?

Now were bailing out TRUE underwater home owners - NOT speculators
I lived thru 1982 and got out of a bad situation on my own, & Now
I own my Condo and make additional payments to end it early.

& YES, I have NO compassion for those who BOT on SPEC to FLIP homes
they got caught in the NOOSE and I dont feel bad for them losing those
homes & their good credit.

On another note
As bad as the mkt is, I still cant understand why mutual fund holders dont convert to money market to at least presevere the capital, even tho its at much lower levels than it was last year. I really do KNOW why-
they are caught in the SLOPE OF HOPE

more later
Jay

Elliott wave counting

Jan 5th high
SPX (i) 943.85 to 804.30 -139.55 =Jan 20 low
(ii) 804.3 to 875.01 70.71 50.7% Jan 28th
(iii) i 875.01 to 754.25 -120.76 ****** WAS THIS LAST WEEK - Feb 20 @ 1:20pm
ii 754.25 800.38 46.13032 38.2% ***NEXT WEEK - some are projecting 850spx
iii 800.38 to604.99 -195.38968 1.618 ^^^^ March 10th
iv 604.99 to 725.74 =120.75 61.8% ^^^^^^^^END OF MARCH
v 725.74 to 604.98 v=i -270.03
(iv) 604.98 to 771.86 61.80%
(v) 771.86 - 632.31
MAJOR LOWS on June13th at spx 600
Some others are considering a LOW of 572 to 580.
I like this scenario
I would make a slight change in the labelling but it still
comes out the same in the end

This is From Ravi Metre on Crystal ball group
More later
Jay

NDX

WHEN the NDX gets to 950 as it did in Oct 2002

THEN you will have a REAL BOTTOM

See the previous chart showing the 60 year LOW due on June13th 2009

Jay

GOLD

READY TO TUMBLE

Jay

WHAT MOVES THE MARKET ?

CHICKEN or EGG

does NEWS made by MAN move the market ?
OR
Does the MARKET make MAN to make his MOVE ?

Yesterdays NEW DOW low has NOT produced an S&P new low, not yet anyway

However, as I wrote b4

I sold out puts yesterday at 3;35pm
the mkt ran up and fell again

NOW looking at 156 bars at open as the LOW at 9:40 am to maybe 10am

180 bars with 55%/13 day at 11;30 is secondary BUY zone

A GOOD SCARY open, IMO, is a BUY

Yesterdays close
MY PROPRIETARY indexes ISSUED a BUY
internal data
ADV decl ratio = 308
VOl ratio= 270
BOTH WELL UNDER 400 threshold

5 day ARMS = 212.6 = huge buy signal
5 day trin = 106.3 = strong buy
10 day = 146.8 = moderate buy

ALL are SHORT TERM signals

Yesterday was 8day LOW
Today is 8 day TURN

POWER INDEX hit lows at 350 yesterday and today they jump up to 600 and
they hold those levels thru Tuesday - new moon high
Feb9th was full moon high

Some are talking Nationalizing the some banks this wkend?
WALL St needs NEWS - thus my opening statment

More later
Jay

Feb19 & 20

OK, we GOT EXACTLY what the the daily cycles called for
Tmorrow is 22 tr days from Jan 20-
in case you cant count- thats 2 X 11
Jan 20 - FEb 4 - Feb 20

Besides that
Today hit the HIGH and LOW notes right on CUE
Highs
9:44 - 11:15 & TURNED DOWN
1pm - minor high and low within minutes of each other
3pm an IMPORTANT high

LOWS
90bars @ 10:30
120Bars @ 1pm
150 bars @ 3;40, a few minutes late - sched for 3;30

NOW heres where it leaves us
since 3;40 was a LOW at 150 bars we were wondering
how 156 bars was going to play out
AND GUESS WHAT I STILL DO have a question about tomrrow's open

THE BEST part of today was I bot puts at 10:15
and sold at 3;35, so the day treated me well

WHAT ABOUT TOMORROW ? You ask- good question

IF Friday open LOWER, then its a BUY at 156 BARS
at 9:40am

If it opens higher, then its a LOW at 11;29 @ 55%/13 day
and matching 180 bars

more later
Jay

whip saw

As usuall

9;44am OPEN higher

10:05 TURNED LOWER

11;15 hourly TURNED LOWER
1pm hourly
3pm ""

2pm = 50%/13 day cycle low
126bars @ 1:30
156bars @ 4pm


IF 4pm closes on the LOW, then I might be buying calls for a VERY strong OPEN
OR
If 4pm does NOT close on the LOD
then the OPEN might be lower

TODAY is an 8DAY LOW
TOMRROW is an 8 DAY turn

TOmrrow also has a 55%/13day @ 11;29,
which might offer a setback to any higher open
BUT tomrrow should CLOSE higher and continue
to hold its gains thru The 24th NEW MOON

Bradley date is 26th , and should be the high of next week,
but do expect to get whipped some more

very tricky to make $$ in this kind of market

I bot puts at 10;15, and added more just b4 the big drop-
I was really surprised they gave me my offer

Will be selling them at 4pm

Jay

Feb 19

looks like spx 755 today at 2pm and or 4pm

Rally tomrrow into Monday

Holds thru the new moon on Tuesday


Im planning to buy puts on any rebound to 9:45 or 10am;
I will add more if higher or equal at 11am

126bars @ 1;30
156bars @ 4pm- might be the LOD
OR
OPen on friday
this requires monitoring the close
If the LOW, then the open Friday will rebound strongly

Most likely I will sell them at 4pm

more later
Jay

Heres an EW up to the close on 17th

Jay

ELLIOTT Wave

IMO< THIS NAILS IT

THIS was posted by JB Van Orman on a Yahoo group

On Tuesday, the SPX traded between 789 and 819 to close at 789, down
4.6%. The market is down 4.5% in February, 12.6% in 2009, and 49.9%
from the all-time high.

Resistance is 803 followed by 817 and 828. Support is 779 followed by
769 and 755.

The intermediate trend is down (0 on a scale of 0 to 100). Technical
and momentum indicators are strongly oversold (81 on a scale of 0 to
100).

In wave terms, the market in in the third of five waves down. Wave 1
was 944 to 804. Wave 2 was 804 to 878, a 53% retracement. Wave i of 3
was 878 to 813. Wave ii of 3 was 813 to 875, a 95% retracement.

Wave iii of 3 is in progress. To date, it has traveled from 875 to
789. Given the strongly oversold reading in my work at the close, I
think iii of 3 is near an end. The support of 769/779 noted above may
be that end, with a bounce to the low 800s to follow as wave iv of 3.
Wave v of 3 would follow and take out the 741 November low.

Beyond wave 3, I anticipate the five wave move down from 944 to end
in the first ten days of March. I see 673/690 at a minimum -- this
represents the last long-standing triggered downside target in my
work with 769/789 having been hit today. A close below 673 would open
the door to a new target of 577/592.

Im expecting the next few days to pick up and rebound into the NEW moon on the 24th and OR
the 27th, the next Bradely date

March 2nd follows as the next bradley date, and being so close it should represent a very srtong DOWNTURN as indicated above for an important low between march 4th 7 10th

Today has potential to rebound and hit a high at 10 to 11 am TOMRROW
the 19th should then sell off into the close and or open on Friday
Friday has potential to be a strong rally day

SPX levels as mentioned above by JB

More Later
Jay

Scary Futures

very NEGATIVE Futures at 8:30 are abating some

17th and 18th fall on EXTREMES of the tidal range, thus we should see a wide ranging day today

However, any rebound off open lows does not change the forecast for

WEd - Friday

WEd & Thurs still down sharply, with a strong recovery Friday

What about next week ? You ask. Gee, you sure are in a hurry {g}

Any high gained this week is still under pressure and the mkt is still in down mode till
March 4th , 10th & 18th
In other words the benefit of doubt goes to the bears for March

In fact , ive written this b4
the Graph I posted above shows problems thru June13th as in 1949, making this low a 60 year cycle

Just as the BULLS were in charge all the way to Oct 10th, 2007, the bears have it still
until June 13th, 2009

more later
Jay

update

No change for Tuesday
If they RUN up a HIGH over 100 pts or more by 11:28, then Im out of calls and will look for points to bet short

I might pick up some puts at 11:30 or wait till 1pm or 3pm

A mid day low is expected on the 19th at 2pm;
Why? you ask, thats a good question

on the 19th
50%/13 day cycle AT 2pm
moon 0 Pluto at 2pm
126 bars at 1;30 which might be over run by the above

156 bars hits at 4pm, AND or OPEN on friday am

If 2pm doesnt hold the low, then its possible for Friday to open low and rebound for options exp

ONE main reason for that action is
19th = and 8 day LOW
20th = an 8 day TURN

So you can see how the above scenario fits into that 8day cycle & turn

ALSO
the readings for this week
Tuesday - Optimism abounds & reach for your goals
Wed= MONEY issues take a DIVE
Thurs = Conflicts & frustration
Friday= MIXED trends today- makes some progress

More Later
Jay

60 year cycle

the chart above is from 1949, and it appears to have a striking resemblance to 2009;

Mostly from here to Mid June

I am still expecting an important low March 4th- same as above
then important high April 19th- Armstrong date

We know for a fact that 80% of the losses occur in 20% of the time
thus May & June 2009 could represent the 20% in time - just as above

more later
Jay

Tuesday Feb 17- Prelim report

Got some bullish internals for Tuesday

Jaywiz index = .79
spdr =1.75 -bullish
cboe = .89 - neutral
SPX = 1.40 - b
OEX = 1.13 moderately b
Oil = + 3.74 - b

2/12 was pivot low and was 27/38/55 tr day
I dont expect that LOW to hold & could get broken next week
that would be very bearish for the next few months

2/13 - My propietary adv/dec & vol are hovering near the 400 level, which represents buy signals
but they are not UNDER 400 and therefore not very powerful signals

ARMS 5 day = 201.0
TRIn 5 = 10.5
trin 10 = 142
these are indications of an OVERSOLD mkt, but not necessarily a screaming buy

the one day arms of 5.85 on the 10th is also indicating more BEAR to come

I am expecting A rebound Tuesday to spx 840-850 area, and might hit the highs on the open at 10am on the 18th.
IMO, thats the point to get Short

Any gains made Tuesday should be erased and more by Thursday's close
___________________________________________________

Friday's low at 1pm was @ 150bars and the close @186, and over shoot of 180 at 3;30
From the pivot low on the 12th it looks like
"a" wave to close on 12th
"b" wave to close on 13th
we should expect "c" wave high on 17th

I cant confirm this yet with scientific data as some of it is not available yet
MORE LATER

Jay

Todays cycles

We did hit an important LOW at 3pm yesterday - spx 808

The rebound end of day consider wave 'a' and only part one of 3 you know a-b-c

Today so far looks like 'b' low and the close today including Tuesday's open
should be wave 'c'

Bar cycles today
120b @ 10;30 dow off 35
150b @ 1pm or 156b @ 1;30 dow off 80
180b @ 3;30

hourly
11am was a high & turned lower
1pm is a LOW so far, has turned up a little at 1;20
3:06 pm
Power index shows a strong close as well as Tuesdays morning

I am adding at each successive low which is called scale trading expecting the end result to be $$

the rebound was 235 pts off the 3pm low
thus a setback or "b" wave should sell off up to 38.2% or 90 pts
taking the Dow back down to 7845 area
THAT was the LOW so far at 1pm

Now off 57 at 1:25 pm
Vote on STIM to start at 1:30
Amazing how this type of thing fits into the wave

More Later
Jay

Friday the 13th

what looks like a weak start should turn into a strong rally

If 9:44 offers a decent sell off low, then I will buy some calls
and more at 180bars at 10;30 which could be the AM low,
along with the partial 13 day low as mentioned b4.

also as mentioned b4
I know HOW tough it is to HOLD over such a long weekend, but there is a very strong
Mars 0 Jupiter at 11;28 am on Tuesday which could offer a PEAK, and OPP to get short

Depending on how it goes Tomrrow, my inclination is to sell at close,
but that Jupiter aspect is very tempting.

Today was a perfect score
Low hit at 10am - partial 13 daycycle
turned Up at 11am - hourly
rebound till 12:30 between the goal posts
Low again at 3;10 Hourly turn up
strong close

More Later
Jay

Friday Feb13

well there IT is -- the end of day rebound

Some prelim data shows tomrrow Up, with a minor dip at 10:56am

If youve got the buy power and you didnt buy calls earlier , you might consider some at close

see that hourly at 3;10pm was a low and turned up

32 minutes later = 3:42 might be a rebound high

I dont have a real good position yet, but as I wrote
some prelim data shows tomrrow Up

On a one day one minute chart
OBV hit a low at 3;10
Macd crossed over at 3:10
thus the rebound
amazing how news comes out at just the right moment -
makes people think the news caused the rally
BUT WE KNOW BETTER

I Missed it by 1minute- GRRR

tomrrow;s game plan
IF they open DOWN till 9:44, I will buy some calls
if it opens UP
& they make a low at 11am, I will buy or add some more calls

Tuesday has a high energy Mars 0 Jupiter at 11;28 and could offer the HIGH of the week
I will be getting ready to short that high and will add more if it holds later int he day

Wed Feb 18 could set the mkt back and even take it down to spx 800 or under

Looking like

A LOWER close
IF no rebound after 3pm, then a lower close today
should offer a big upday tomrrow


No guarantees so play it close to the chest
Activity index NOT conducive to a rebound at 3pm

more later
Jay

Rewards

looks like shorting at 3pm will be rewarded this morning

choices we now have ____________

We can close out puts positions at 9;50 - 10 am

OR wait till Noon

most reversals require a an initial low and subsequent retest looking like a W- such should be today's mkt
SAME DEAL for the 13th, but tomrrow could be a V type low.

If I sell put position at 10, I will prepare my brain to buy calls at noon TO SELL AT CLOSE
OR
wait for a big close , then short it expecting another open low, this time at 10;56am, the 23.6%/13 day cycle low
coinciding with 180bars @ 10;30
OR
wait for this low and buy calls to SELL AT CLOSE

More Later
Jay

Missed it - maybe

9:55 high up 80
10:12 low + 40

I will wait for 11am to see if another high
IF SO
then 1;30 = 258bars and shoule be the LOD

then its watch the close
After 258 bars the mkt USUALLY makes it biggest move

hourly highs
11am
1pm
3pm
rounded off

228 bars 11am - conflict with above
258bars @ 1;30

More later
Jay

MORE NOW

DO you believe the NONSENSE the MEDIA, especially CNBC is making of Tim Geitnhers ability to move the markets

last Friday, the gave him credit for the rally and yesterday they hit him hard for causing a 400 point drop

GET REAL Mark Haines & co, IT DONT WORK THAT WAY
& you really dont want to know HOW it works
Of course you need to have things to talk about
PEOPLE WANT TO KNOW

Just ask Charles Nenner- he already told you that in the past;

ON another note
ONe of the BEST WAYS to get the HOME market moving is to, -
I know you wont believe me but its true

RAISE INTEREST RATES

More Later
Jay

FINE Tuning

Dont short the open UNLESS there is a clear advantage
in other words
IF we get a 100 to 150 open by 11am, then I will be inclined to short it
IF not, then dont do anything

IF they close up 100 to 150 then im still going to short the close

However, it will be more advantageous to HOLD off until tomorow at 11am to noon
to buy calls

It looks like there will be more to be gained from a rally late on 12th and all day on 13th
it will probably spill over to Tuesday the 17th, but thats a long time to hold em.

Another BEST SHORTING opp will come on the close of 17th or open of 18th
It looks like the 18th could duplicate Dec 1st.

More later
Jay

NOW WHAT ?

OK, GLAD YOU ASKED.

OK,
We are getting MY projected DECLINE on the 10th
Now what?
The MARKET TOMORROW will open UP with a BANG
SHORT THE OPEN & sell your position at 11am

THEN what? ok ~ glad you asked
SHORT the CLOSE on the 11th
Sell out at OPEN on 12th = 30bars & 13 day segment @ 9:50am

then what ? boy you sure are needy(G)
on the 12th
BUY calls at 11am to noon
and HOLD onto your position thru Friday's close

More later
Jay

Perfect score

Today hit open down 75

But the LOW so far was at 11:30 @ 156 bars
- 310 pts
WILL that be enuf?

Today seem like the kind of day that does NOT want to turn mid day
as I mentioned a few times abut the BAD reading for today
ANd
the opposite POSITIVE reading for tomrrow

Where & what time is today's low ?

we still have 180 bars at 1:30
and 204 bars at 3:30

Hourly highs are @ 1pm & at 3pm which will give us a clue to the 3:30 low

7850 has been solid support last week
8270 - 7850 =420 dow pts

Maybe, maybe not

more later
Jay

WAVE Count

Ive mentioned this several times
in view of what ive noticed about Elliotters, especially STU,
they tend to CLOSE OUT waves TOOO soon
NOW, in view of that
My work suggests the END of the corrective wave on Feb 17th
the other question is how we get there from here today on the 10th.

I am still on the same track as b4
From Nov 21st LOW - call it whatever wave you want = minor wave1, or 3
Jan 6th = WAVE "A" high
Jan 20 = wave "B' Low
Feb 17 wave "C" TOP
Jan 20 to Feb 17 COMPLEX wave
Jan 28 = wv "a" high
Feb 2="b' low
Feb 6 = 'c' hi
feb 10 = 'd' should be today @ 10:30 DOW off 115
feb 17 'e' TOP of WAVE "C"

Jay

PC ratios = sell

SPDR =.59
OEX = .87
SPX 500= 1.35
CBOE ratio = .67
Jaywiz .51

All except the Jaywiz index are moderately bearish

Today hit all the NOTES on Q

10am Eclipse low
90b@ 12;35
120b @ 3pm

Hourly
10:05 turned UP
11am high
1:03 high
3.06 Low

I see the 3pm bar low matched the hourly
___________________________________
Tomrrow
13 day at 10:30
150b@ 11
which could stretch that 13 day to 11am or even noon

180B @ 1;30
204B @ 3:30

Hourly hasnt changed
Round off
11am
1pm
3pm

Astro reading for tomorrow indicates as already posted
Disappointment & Look out for Murphy's law
Anxiety and a bumpy day

However, Wed is EXACT OPPOSITE and should be a strong rally day

As previously posted
Feb 17th is the MONTH high and I think we are climbing a triangle to get there

Of course, when finished prices will PLUNGE as on Dec1st to start
A low on March 6th could match Nov 21st

More Later
Jay

TRIANGLE ??

Its hard to say yet what type of triangle is forming, but so far it
looks like a rising bottom with a contracting top
IF so, then Feb 10th should NOT hit lower than spx 820 intraday
AND Feb 17th should NOT hit higher then Feb 6th.

A 2pm LOW time is in between 180bars@ 1;30 & 204 bars @ 3;30
there is a LOW tide at 3:02 pm, and hourly at 3:06pm

the reading for the 10th calls for disappointment
and Murphy's law - whatever can go wrong will go wrong.

There is a small cluster of 3 hard aspects from midnite to 6am on the 11th
which if anything would have its effects on the 10th.

Feb 17th/18th =
21 trade days from Jan 20 - low
34 from DEc29 low
55 from Nov 28 high
this timing could be equal to Nov 28 high on 17th with Dec 1st plunge on Feb 18th

more later

Jay

FINE Tuning

If we are in a minute wave 2 UP TREND against the minor downtrend
then its possible there might be one more leg from A Feb11th LOW

Next week looks like this according to the power index

Monday & Tuesday both LOWER
Wed Up
Thursday down, but not a lower low
Friday Up to 17th high
_____________________________________________
Astro view
18th to 24th down possibly leading to a further decline into March 6th
THIS is the point in time that could match Nov 21st

A wave comparable to Nov 21 / Jan 6th could offer a rebound here to April19th

more later
Jay

Clearer picture

Feb 6th was an 8 day what? obviously it wasn't a LOW
SO, if it was a HIGH
then Monday is an 8DAY TURN, which obviously means going lower

Since Feb 12th makes a 55 tr days cycle, *********then it really should be a low**********
Its also even more important a 39tr day cycle from Dec 15th- actually 38+1/2 days for Dec24th
Some analysts like to use 27 tr days which is also on the 12th from the Jan5th HIGH
SO it makes everything Equal distant 27 day from Nov 20 to jan 5th
ANd 27 days to Feb12th
BUT DO BE assured----THAT IS NOT the END Of it !!

full moons tend to enrgize, but Monday's ECLIPSE at 9:50 may have already spent its energy
with regard to stock price advances
Price levels tend to play between the eclipses
High Jan 26-28 to low Feb 3 to 5 to high on 6th or 9th

having proposed that, lets look a little further ahead

Once the 12th LOW at spx 792 is done, we can then expect another rebound to take form- and WHY NOT
12th has potential to make its low at 10am & turn up from there- same as the 5th
Feb14th - HAppy valentines day - NO Massacre this year - exact opposite on Friday the 13th.
13th to 17th look like BIG RALLY DAYS

but the atmosphere turns sour again from FEb 18th to the new moon on the 24th

More Later
Jay

Scientific resource data

10am update
SPX up 15 to 860
dow Up 150 to 8210

HOWEVER,
ACTIVITY INDEX FLAT LINE at .6 = lowest possible level
ALL 3 solar effects in DOWN MODE

Power index shows lows today and potential lower low on Monday
with one more lower low on Tuesday, then Up the rest of the week with'
a huge rally on Friday

Yeh, I know, this contradicts my last post
NOW you see why theres so much confusion

The PROOF will be what happens today and Monday

You know what they say
If you cant take the heat, then get out of the kitchen
Maybe I should take my own advice {gg}

EITHER WAY
we could get to 790 by Monday
OR
BY Thursday

Summarize
spx 790 is coming SOON to a market near you
Jay

CONFUSION or NOT

THIS TYPE of WAVE count confuses everyone, even me {G}

The big question here is
DID the E wave HIGH actually occur @ 850
Or
IS there still more UP to go late today and or Monday

The actual D wave can NOW drop between 850 & 816 today
and rally one more time to 850 on Monday as the E wave
_________________________________________
FEb 12th is 55 tr days from Nov 20th, and should offer a strong tradings LOW
It might NOt be the BIG 3rd wave most Elliotters are expecting but
we could easily get back down to 780-790 spx

Take a look back at Nov 13 to Nov 20- Dow lost 1280 pts
a low at 780 area = a loss of 70 spx pts = 560 dow = 7500 area
thus matching Nov 20th lows on the dow , but NOT the SPX

Thats a CLEAR WARNING for bears when the
SPX stays stronger than the DOW
________________________________________

FUTURES reversed UP at 8:30
BUT
OIL is DOWN over $2.00
and futures are weakenning at 9:15
___________________________________

Hours today
10am - should be a high & futures are right there
then
10;47am
1:06
3:15

Bar cycles
258B @ 11:30 - this could be the most important low o f the day
30b@ 2pm

this leaves 60 bars for Monday at 10am on Monday which
COINCIDES with THE 9:50am ECLIPSE

PC ratios yesterday are mixed
but OEX = .72 and is the most sensitive index and is bearish
Jaywiz index =.22 on WEd
=.54 today


More NOW
Today Feb 6th is an 8 DAY segment and should be a LOW
BUT obviously might have become the 8 day HIGH
Monday is an 8 day TURN , and as such should offer
at least 3 days down to the 12th.

12th again, is 55 trade days from Nov 20 ***********

WATCH FEb 12th NEWSPAPERS
on Nov 20th the NEWS papers reported { WALL ST SLUMP}
and we all know a rebound started from there
SO, its sell the rumor- BUY the news

NOW, keep in mind
there are indications for further losses after April 19th thru MID June

OK Now, this time , its More later
Jay

Timing A Low

I did not post the times correctly yesterday

today
9:40 LOW
10:08 High- bot more puts
10;58 - did you see that mini spike high?
12:45-- TIME TO DIVE
3;08


bar cycles
90b@ 10;30 -- minor dip
126b@ 1;30 -MKT diving now down 86
150B @ 3;30 - could be the LOD ?


Activity index took at DIVE at 1:30pm-
and you already know the mkt also took a dive
Exact opposite of yesterday

Nenner looking for low on or about the 6th.

Yesterday's PC ratios gave a sell
Internals gave a SELL on Jan 28th
__________________________________

Tomorrows bar cycles
180b@ 11:30
204b @ 1:30
228b @ 3;30

power index starts at 400, and drops to 300
gauge index continues to drop from 3011 to 2998

______________________________
Friday's important BAR cycle
258B @ 11;30

Reading for friday
Challenges & LOW energy in the AM
power index starts at 300 and rises to 400

Summary
early high on 4th gives way to a BIG dive on 5th
and ends at 11:30 on friday, then closes better

More Later
Jay

Testing Nov 21 ??

I dont think anyone doubts there will be a retest of Nov 21
the question is ""WHEN""

Feb 10 happens to be 54 tr days from Nov 21 which makes it a good candidate
also computes with other tr days
13-21-34-54-89-112-144-233

Feb9th is a LUNAR eclipse= full moon
mkt sometimes drops right after

Today's numbers
Power index opens at 425 & closes at 350
Activity index which jumped UP like a cat on a hot tin roof is STILL holding the 4 level at 8am
main gauge index has dropped from 3022 to 2998 showing a downtrend the next 2 days

------------------------------------------------------------

Bar cycle LOWS
90@ 10:30
126@1:30
150@ 3:30

Hourly cycles
9:35 -9:40 = should be the open low
10;08 should be the rebound high

10:48
12;49
3:08

hourlies have offerred highs more often than lows, but its not cast in stone
we have seen a shift recently and they have become mixed

Thursday
Power index opens at 400, and closes at 300
should be the BEST selling day of the week

SOME are also projecting the 6th down sharply
it might OPEN weak, but IMO, and my work suggests it will close higher

More Later
8:30 reports did NOTHING to change the open

Jay

DOWN we go

Except for possible high at 9:35,

Feb4th should be DOWN and more so on the 5th

Bar cycle
90b@ 10;30
126B @ 1:30
150b @ 3:30

hourly
10:48
12;49
3;08

Tues Power index
425 open
350 close

WEd power index
400 open
300 close

gauges 3022 high today drops to 3009
and some under 3000

Activity index bounced on Q with stocks

Will report back in the AM
More later
Jay

REBOUND

DID I write rebound?
And there it is
Like MAGIC

OK, I bot SOME puts near the close

and will ADD more on any UP open till 9:40 or 10 am

ALL my time slots got hit today for highs and lows

Power index says we open higher,
but it might only be a very small amount and very short lived

Activity index blasted off after 2pm - incredible

More later
Jay

TRENDING LOWER

The TREND remains DOWN till Feb 9th

That will not change
therefore

IT will be more beneficial to buy puts on any rebound

Yesterday as predicted
OPENED lower till 9:40
rebound high at hourly 12;45 pm
hourly LOW at 3pm exact
Hourly high at 3;41
closed on 258 bar low
-------------------------------------------------------------------

TODAY - FEb 3rd
PC ratios indicate SELL
Opened slightly higher
10 am dow up about 5
10;16 is FIRST hourly and should offer a TURN DOWN to the 13 day cycle low
Activity index is FLAT LINE at .6 = very bearish

62%/13 day @ 10:43= could be LOD or just the AM
SELL any rebound after this low
HIGHS could occur at 12:58pm or 3:06pm

Bar cycle lows
noon
2:30

Power index
325
400
350
_____________________________________________
The power index for Wed Am Shows
425 open
350 close
that means a HIGHER OPEN and substantially lower close
could be the BEST SELLING OPP this week as the
power index continues lower till the 9th

More later
Jay

8:30am update

Yes it still looks like 180 bars has the OPEN LOWER till 9:40AM

After a bounce, there still is the 11;29 low to deal with which
doesnt have to be lower at all, but can be

As for ME, Im trading out of puts at the OPEN

a bounce indicated by the gauge level for today
opens at 3004, and moves higher to close at 3014
offers a good opp to short the close

Heres a chart of the pwer index for next 5 days
DAY ----Open --- Intra ----Close
MON ----300------------------500 indicates a DOWN open then Up
Tues ----325-------300-------400 indicates a DOWN open, lower, then up
Wed ----425------300------400 indicates an up open, down, then up
Thr -----350------300-------350 indicates a lower open, lower, then up
Fri -----300 ----------------300 indicates a lower open and down all day

For those who dont micro manage their trading
closing out puts at open today allows repositioning those assets
at higher prices on the open of the 4th-
thus buying back at lower put prices

More later
Jay

Bears in Control

the BEARS are in control thru Feb9th

Stay focused

Any rallies this week intraday should be sold

Some charts might be showing lows are in, but it just at points like this
the mkt drops thru what looks like support

Dow 8000 VERY CRITICAL

The Reading for Feb 2 = Dont start anything new
tense situations


SPX futures are already OFF 20 pts as of Saturday Noon
If that holds, it places the spx to open at 814

Monday hourly-
11;15
1;10
3;15


Bar cycles
180b AT OPEN
THIS almost guarantees a SHARPLY LOWER OPEN

55%/13 daycycle@ 11;29
204 bars at 11;30
this almost guarantees the mkt trades lower to this point

258 bars @ 4pm almost guarantees a lower close
UNLESS it completes at the open on the 3rd

FEb 3rd ~~ TIMES

30 bars @ noon
60 b @ 2 : 30

62%/13 day @ 10:43
moon 90 Neptune @ 10:21

The POWER index is a bit confusing, but it does seem to confirm a LOWER open on the 3rd,
with a rebound later in the day into the open of the 4th


More later
Jay

Neat package

open higher
low at 11;30 @ 126 bars dow off 140
Higher to hourly at 1;13 dow off 42
BOT puts at 1;13pm
next LOW due at 2pm
then possible uptick to 3pm, and lower close

Monday could be a short term low at 11;29 am
Minute wave 1 of 3 of 5
should break under spx 800
maybe fill the outstanding gap at 792??

More later
Jay

MY Simple Elliott wave

4th wave from nov 21 to jan 5th

CURRENTLY now a 5th wave
within that 5th wave

Wave  1 from 944 to 805
wave 2 from 804 to 877, might not be 
complete yet as of jan 28th
wave 1 of 3 of 5  to 738 due next 
should end of Feb9th

Thats exactly my thoughts above wave counts
SIMPLE and precise
Leave out that micro's, & nano's
As best as I can tell we have ALREADY
or about to enter wave 3 of 5

ITS still possible we have ONE more run up to 880 area 
to complete wave 2 IF so, then Feb 3rd is best bet for 
that high or the Am of the 4th

Then wave 3 takes us to AS IVE MENTIONED MANY TIMES
 ********FEB9th *** Feb9th **********feb 9th
I dont know HOW many times to post that date b4 It gets 
recognition

That MIGHT ONLY Be  minute wave1 of minute 3 of minor 5

Minor 5 might still not get there till MID JUNE at SPX 600
___________________________________________________

PC ratios are MIXED today
gauges are pointing somewhat higher today, at least till
about 1pm
Activity index holding the #1 level but pushing up one tick
Power index also shows a potential for a mid day high
VHF level at 0= bullish

Overall the trend today appears somewhat bullish
HOWEVER, there is 1 50% /13 day @ 2pm
Also EOM uptrend and first day of mew month

FEB 2 however, has a 55%/13 AT 11;29 which could
be the catapult to a higher close
____________________________________________________

Murrey math levels
878, and we got right to it Wed
841 held on Thursday
Futures are slightly up at 9:25am
Spx 40 point rule of thumb

935 closing high - 805 closing low = 130 pts
40pts X 3 = 120, thats close enuf
805 + 80 got us near to 885 Wed

878- 120 = 758 
Murrey math = 754
anything below those levels on Feb9th/ open on the 10th
could take it to
spx 723 Murrey math to 718 
_______________________________________________

Hourly remains the same
aprox
11 am
1pm
3pm

barcycles
126 @ 11:30
156 @ 2pm matching the 13 day cycle
180 at close OR open on Monday

Hope Im not overloading you with all this data


More later 
Jay

The Die is CAST

PC ratios indicate a SELL OFF tomrrow

as previously stated, 1:32 has the only chance of a high for the day,
but coming off opening lows, it might not amount to much.

JAYWIZ index = .18 = sell
SPDR = 1.09 = sell
CBOE PC = .77 =sell
SPX = .96 = sell
OEX pc ratio = .51 SELL
Need I write any more??

Proprietary gauges dropped from highs of 3040 to 2996 showing tomrrow DOWN

Activity index barely moved off the 1.6 level even with a 200 pt up day

The LAST hour looked like a setup for a wave 3 down open again in accord with the
cycles mentioned b4
10am & 10;12 am

Friday has 180 bars hitting at 4pm
However, its also backed up with a midnite high tide on Feb 1st

Whats that mean ? You ask - good question

It means that IF Friday does NOT close DOWN, then MONDAY will open down with a THUD
on the 180 bar mark

More later

Jay

Ground Hog Day

FEb 2nd has a 50% /13 day @ 2pm,
AND
4 day low @ 3pm

Between those two, we can see the first stop


Feb 3rd starts out strong
BUT
55%/13 day @ 11:29 should offer another reality check

A higher close should spill ove tot he 4th in the AM;
But it will pay to be FLEXIBLE

WHY? you ask

WEll the 5th calls for a POTENTIAL CRISIS & Money WOES

VENUS 90 Pluto - NOT GOOD FOR biz at all

More later
Jay

BIG UP DAY today

As bulls WE waited this one out holding our collective breath
OIL UP & Europe UP 2 to 3 %

How high is high?
Lost Jan 6 to Jan 20 {935spx to 805} = 130 pts @ a %age to be gained back

130 X 50% = 65 = 870
that one looks like it will be surpassed at the open

130 X 62% = 80 pts = 885
OR
78% = spx 905

THE Higher numbers could be tmrrows goal before the late day collapse
a late day collapse on the 29th is also indicated by my proprietary gauges


Yesterday was a VERY active intraday cycle day
Most important was the 23.6%/13 day cycle right at 10:56 = the LOD
Then after a 3:30 high, the close ended right at 204bars
THUS the EXPLOSION in futures this am

THE hourly cycles yesterday
10:47 low matched the 13 day cycle
12;24 HIGH
3:06 low- turned up
3;38 high

WHAT'S OUT THERE TODAY - Jan 28th

Of course we have the typical hourly
in round #s
11 am
1pm
3pm

BAR cycles
228b@ 11;30
258B @ 2pm *****Now that one is VERY interesting
IT falls just b4 the FED announcement
making a low there at 258 bars is a setup for a very strong close

Jan 29th FYI
STARTS LOWER
WHY ?
the 38.2%/13 day cycle @ 10:12
AND
30bars @ 10am

both MEET at nearly the same time- double whammy
HOWEVER, there should still be one more runup to that 1;32 time
b4 getting serious about declining into Feb 4th

More later
Jay

Expect MORE

FED day tomrrow
what are they going to report

ive been thinking about this
AND
They will do EVERYTHING they can to support OBAMA-NOMICS

what that means is they are reporting at exactly the right time and place
to give Pres Obama'a economic plan a boost

the ENTHUSIASM comes just before a SUN || Pluto which is a cousin
to the Jan 21st aspect SUN 30 Pluto when the dow closed UP 297pts

Any hard fought gains today will turn out moderate compared to
Tomrrows run for the roses

In light of the ABOVE- It's Fascinating to me is the Jan 29th reading
GET GROUNDED & warns of UNREALISTIC expectations

Wow, how real can you get.

More Later
Jay

Jan 27 update at noon

Whats the GAME PLAN?

Were making some progress toward a 55 day high which at this
point looks like it might be delayed one day

The trend for today doesnt seem to have the punch to get UP Dow 300 pts
But thats what I would expect from this wave

Tomorrow has nothing in the way of getting there,
so the big UP day looks like it might be one day away.

The 29th has a Sun || Pluto at 1;32 which calls for BIG changes
followed by a hard lunar aspect at 5;32pm

one of my associates has provided a Lunar fractal chart that shows
the 27th or 28th as a high and the next big move is a slide into March 6th
if I get permission, I'll put on display

Ive already mentioned March 2nd to 6th potential for a n important low
a couple times and this chart shows it clearly

Jay

Jan 27th

Today might be considered as LAST chance for bulls to make a statement

however, it wont mean anything in the overall context of things to come

I will be preparing to get BEARISH on any intraday high tomrrow

My work and systems suggest a high today, possibly higher intraday tomorrow

Then, I am STILL on target for a FEB10th LOW
Starting on Jan 28th

Of course there are some bullish reprieves along the way, but the TREND appears to be picking up the
bearish side until at least the first week in March

Wave 1 wave 39 tr days and 2039 pts
wave 5 so far is only 13 days from jan 6th
39 days takes us to March 2nd
and 2039 pts drops to dow 7000

More Later
Jay

Monday

After LANGUISHINING all week at the lowest level, The ACTIVITY index has risen to #4

the highest level is at # 5

there is a 13 day segment LOW due at 9:50am along with an hourly at 9:45

Futures are still weak, but should not hold the mkt after that

Any rally should END Tuesday by mid afternoon

A second rally might unfold on Wed, but should not survive after the Fed announcement
bar cycles today
60b @ 10:30
90b@1pm
120b@ 3:30pm

More hourly
10:18
1:23
3:28


more later
Jay

LAST chance

January has one more chance THIS WEEK to show its bullish stuff

The month of Feb promises to slip and slide

Weve already discussed a few times Feb 10th

BUT after a very brief rebound to about mid month , the balance of Feb looks as bad as the first 10 days

It looks like the MAIN cycle is the 60 yr ending in MID June all the way back to 1949

March 2003 was the last most recent lows, and thats 72 months
Hadik likes to count 17 year cycles = 1992 which was a LOW year also
I mention this because most analysts like to use 55 months
well, DUHH - 72-55 = 17

More later
Jay

Jan 23 update

Scary open right on 228 bars to a low of 7912

258 bars came in right on schedule at noon, but not a new low

Todays readings calls forGOOD fotune BY DAYS END

next bar cycle at 2;30 should set the stage for end of day rebound

Jay

Jan 23 times

WEll its ONE year from Jan 22 and 23rd of 2008 and we all know what hapenned then

Are we geting the same or SIMILAR ? maybe
last yar they ran UP 750 pts from the Jan 22 low
then fell 500 to Feb 13th
That was THEN, and THIS IS NOW

Times today

228 BARS right on the OPEN- 210 dow
10:15 rebound hourly high - dow off 150

258 Bars @ NOON
START new cycle
30 bars @ 2:30
60 bars dosent hit until Monday @ 10;30am

Tues had 30 bars @ 12:30
Wed had 90bars @ 11am
Thurs had 180 bars at NOON
ALL were LOW points
That means NOON- TODAY should be a significant low today also

Hourly
10:15
11:05
1:10
3;15
and 3:47

Activity index so far today is NOT showing any move higher as of 10am and in fact supports the next move lower to noon

gauges are languishing and not showing any rebounds as of yet

Wave count could be doing either a desceing trianagle or finishing wave 1 down to 792 intraday with a rebound to midway between 792 and 940 = spx 866

It should happen quite quickly as Tuesday represents an 8 day point - high or low
Wed offers and 8 day turn
and my work suggests a high on Tues, TRUN on WEd and start of substantial decline
ending on Feb 10th

If a triangle we could travel the widest part of the which = 250 pts
spx 1000 to 750 = 250 pts or spx 615
OR duplicating wave 3 losses = the same
149 pts lost from 935 to 792 , or 805 = 130 x 1,618 = 210 pts
OR 149 x 1.618 = 239

What Im really saying is {{ that for the bears}}, the best is yet to come

More later
Jay

Jan 22 -2009

TIMES FOR TODAY

first go take a look at BP chart at CHARTS EDGE

Today's bar cycles
150B @ open, thus the open decline
13 DAY right in here at 10:30 - might be the LOD ??
180 b @ 11;30
204b @ 1:30
228B @ 3;30

Hourly times ~~ usually highs but not always
11am
1:05pm
3:15 pm

Charts edge has ALL of these LOWS on the BP chart for today.
you know how to get over there.

And most important is the 13 day cycle at 10;30 to 11am *********
which falls right in there on his chart and the above bar cycles

His chart also shows a higher close which agrees with my work

><><>

Jan 23rd
Not shown yet as per Charts edge

however, 258 bars @ 11;30 might be the buy of the day
We seem to have conflicting charts for the 23rd- some are up, some are down -- DUHH what else is new(G)

IMO< --IT looks like we will start LOWER till 11;30, then close higher, and I will offer more info later

More later - again >
Jay

Jan 22 -2009

As IVE written SEVERAL times

EXPECT the 13 day cycle LOW to HIT at 10:30am on JAN 22nd

The FUTURES are off 100 dow points this AM -Jan 22 -- DUHH
I told you this would happen weeks in advance

NOW, We STILL offer that low as a BUY for a rally to continue, choppy at times such as this AM,
BUT still HIGHER into Jan 27th, maybe 28th

29th reading says DONT PUSH your luck- watch for DANGER signs of becoming overconfident
30th calls for CHANGE is at hand

FEb 2nd to Feb 10th is STILL SET up for MAJOR LOSSES in stocks

Many ELLIOTTERs have been looking at the current wave as impulsive and counting it that way
Ive been REPEATING this several times
The alternate is becoming primary count for THEM

JAN 6th = "A" wave high @935spx
Jan 21="B" wave LOW @ 805spx
Jan 27/28 = "C" wave HIGH 935 & higher = WAVE 4
Since we NOW at 840 spx, the next few days appear SHARPLY HIGHER

Feb 10th possible wave 5
wave 5of what longer pattern, im not sure, but I will leave that to other elliotters of more experience
who I am sure will offer charts and graphs of perfection

More later
Jay

55 tr day cycle

most of the time we expect a 55 tr day cycle to be HIGh to low or Low to high
BUT it can also be high to high and low to low

Theres a lot of noise about the current 55 tr day cycle from nov 4th and Nov 20
which can also complete in 54 days, as some count 108 days and not 110

However, lets look at the dates
11/20 to 1/20 = 39 days but actually its 38 due to the 2 half days
11/20 to 1/21 = actual -- 39
11/20 to 11/22 = actual-- 40

11/21, at 11:05am the intaday low to 1/22/09 is 39 actual
or 3 cycles of 13

NOV 4th + 55 = NOV 27th actual
Oct 27th LOW to Jan 20 = 56 tr days or 14 cycles of 4, thus the lowest close at spx805

Heres more
NOV 21st @ 11:05 + 52 tr days = Feb 10th@ 10:30am
another 13 day cycle

Thus we now also have Nov 20 to Feb 10th as 54 tr days
The Lunar eclipse with very negative readings is on the 9th

Thus Im expecting Feb 10th to be an extreme low, possibly getting to targetted spx 704

More later
Jay

Another rally that didnt

I really should have paid more attention the Bradley date - Jan 20th

Even with the close today @ 805 we could still see a lower close tomrrow to 792

Im expecting a rebound till midday on the 21st, but it doesnt look like it can hold

Cliff had mentioned a few times that the 792 GAP had not been filled, ,and that might just provide a strong closing target for tomrrow

We STIll have a few stats to think about
Today was 38 tr days NOv 20
AND
after recounting with those 2 half days makes 4pm today 56 tr days Oct 27th
that makes tomorrow day # 39, and Thursday and even 40
40 / 4 = 10 divisions of 4 from Nov 20
39 tr days NOV 21st at 11:05 = 3 cycles of 13 days to Jan 22@ 10 to 11am

we had a 935 high - 120 = 815 minus another 40 = 775
Murrey math #s 816 last is broken @ 805 now - 31 = 785 -15 more = 770
So now we have 2 levels close to each other by 2 different methods

ONE very important stat which Ive mentioned several times
Jan 22 AT 10:30 am , which could end up at 10am
IS THE 100%/13 DAY cycle completion at 10 to 10;30 with a 30 min variance

Also: my 2 main gauges popped up over the wkend to 3024
then proceeded to fall to 3008 at close today
and drop to 3001 tomrrow, after a brief run up to 3012 intraday

Tech data says SELL even after today
Jaywiz index which gave high readings all week except for last Tuesday now gave a LOW .19
CBOE PC ratio 96
OEX pc ratio 55
SPX 500 pc ratio = 125
those are all in agreement for a lower level

HOWEVER< ONCE we get to 770 area which would = another 35 pts lower than today
and a loss of 280 more down points to 7669 , can then get a huge oversold rebound into mid day on the 27th

How high is HIGH?
Do the math yourselves- but its no where near what I was thinking last week
only fibo %age rebound and not a run to the Jan 6th level

More later
Jay

Heres a picture

worth 100 words = many pages of text

from Tim McCarthy on the Crystal ball forum

More later
Jay

Astro Next week

remember this - You dont have to be a believer - only an observer

Jan 14th - UPSETS & DONT Travel-
I guess Thursday's Air Trans in the Hudson River was just a freak accident, HMMM
thursday's spx high was at 3pm just at the same time as the above

Jan 15th- Be Flexible and Expect changes
Jan 16th - repeat yesterday- DUHHH

Jan 20th - Favorable trends continue - pleasant- $ comes in -

Jan 21 - minor stresses can be overcome

Jan 22 - Day starts out BAD, but turns into a real winner
gee, my 13 day cycle hits at 10:30 am-
what a coincidence ?? OR not , HMMM

Jan 23- Good fortune & high energy

Jan 26 - BURST of enthusiasm & good LUCK

It then starts to get more negative as we get to the end of the week,
but more on that later.

NOW, I ASK YOU, does the above sound like CRASH talk
NOT IN MY ENGLISH

Technical BUY signal

Jan 15th BUY SIGNALS

8212 Dow close
ADV DECL ratio = 316
Vol ratio = 316
BOTH WELL UNDER the 400 threshold for BUY signals
2nd day in a row under 400

Arms 5 day AVE = 203= strong BUY
second day in a row over 200

5 day TRIN sum = 1015 & now 2 days over 1000
10 day trin sum = 1643 & now 2 days over 1600
BOTH STRONG BUYS

37/38 trade days from Nov 21
Spx hit 817 on the 15th @ 12;30
Spx hit 823 on the 16th at 78.6%/13 day cycle at 11;55am

Nov 21 low of minor wave 3 @ 11:05 am right on the 13 day cycle event

Jan 6th top of WAVE "A" spx 935- rebound in minor 4th

Jan 15th LOW of WAVE "B' at spx817

Jan 26th expected wave "C" high to top wave 4 @ 935 or higher

Feb 11th to end wave 5 at spx 795 or lower @ 54 tr days from Nov 21

Math
SPX 935-755 = 180 pts
180 X 50% = 90 pts
935- 90 = 845
spx closed 842 & 843

40 pt method
935- 120 = spx 815

WE GOT ALL THOSE NUMBERS this week

whats ahead
1575 - 755 = 820 pts
820pts x 23.6% = 193
741 intraday low + 193 = 934, we got that on Jan 6

820X 382 = 313 + 741 = spx 1054, very possible
1055 - 815 = 240 / 40 = 6 X
1055 - 40 - 1015
either one can be achieved
RIDE THE WAVES

Theres a LOT of data above and last few days to absorb
take some time to understand it

More later
Jay

timing today

Hourly
10:46
12;55
3:03

Shorter term hourly
Yesterday's 3:08 turn + 1hr & 5 min = 9:43  ***
SHOULD BE THE HOD today

Notice xtides times today
*** 9:42   - MATCHED above
12;30  --  matches convergence
1:40  -- matches 222 b
3;08 - matches hourly above

Most important
204B @ NOON
78.6% /13 day cycle @ 11:55
both hitting at noon would seem to
indicate that could be the LOD

ALL bar cycles today
180b @ 10am
204b @ noon
222B @ 1:40
250b @ 4pm - equal to 258 truncated

using bar cycles, WE would expect 4pm to offer the
LOD at 258 bar cycles,
but with the NOON convergence, it might be hard to match

Waiting for CPI to break at 8:30- same as PPI
holding off closing this email for a moment
futures backing off a little more

note: Europe strongly HIGHER so far at 8:30am

More Later
Jay

SPX 800

The RALLY didnt fail to appear
IT just STARTED from a LOWER level

Now we know what to look for when the reading says - BE FLEXIBLE & expect change
When I write this stuff, you can question me about what it might mean , and that way we can all benefit.
Tomrrow still says " EMOTIONS out of hand & Expect STRESS

Spx 816 is exactly what we wrote about

Shankar, buying at 817 today was really good, and if we get to 800, do what I suggested
SELL THE FARM and buy cALLS

A 5th wave is still out there, and TOMRROW is teh ONLY day available for it

Next week is UP UP UP to jan 26th.

Its possible the move from Nov 21 to Jan 6th wave WAVE "A"
Now in Wave"B" ending Tomrrow
Wave 'C' should exceed wave "A" and make it above spx 935
Thats GONNA BE A REAL WINNER

Lets expand the MATH lesson

We got DOWN to spx 817@ 12:30 today

Previously

the DOW gained -1483 pts ~~~ 7052 - 9035

1483 X fibo 78.6% = 1166pts

9035 - 1166 = 7869 & That should be tomorrows target

IF they get there tomrrow, then the decline is over in 5 waves

That should = spx 799

todays rebound is what I was looking for

Yesterday without the 200 pt drop first.
Go ahead and shoot me for being off one day !!!

So far its near 275 pts up from that low

and were coming to the 3pm crossroad
3:08 pm was the hourly TURN + 78
3.40 next turn - 65

4th wave rebound math

816 to 935 = 119 pts

119 X 23.6% fibo = 28pts

817 + 28 = 845 and thats where we are at 3pm

14th was an 8 day low
15th was an 8 day turn
just like oct 23/24th, THEN the LOW on Oct 27th, the day after 8day turn

More later

Jay

FAILED rally !!!

Looks like free fall today and tomrrow
how low is low ?????
spx 795 IF broken today
then
a new low could be hit tomrrow under 741 or at least a match

Astro reading says BE FLXIBLE
very short term high was hit ona very small rebound at 9:38am
and the acceleration started lower from there

Ave low to low cycle = 37 to 42 tr days
tomrrow is 37 at the minimum from oct 27th
Neg Astro aspects end Saturday

More Later
Jay

The whole 9 yards ??

Today was disappointing, BUT still very profitable

it also mean a change in the weather forecast for tomrrow

Still a strong start, and we are overdue for such anyway

however, It looks like any rally tomrrow wont survive the close

We still need to see SPX 816, the DEc 1st close, and dow 8000

Still on schedule for Friday, which NOW looks like it will set the 38tr day low in cement

Tomrrow's schedule
Bar cycle LOWS @
11:30 or 12:30
2pm or 2:30

HIGHS @
10:50 am
1pm
3:08pm

the above suggests a high Thursday at 1pm

heres some interesting math
Murrey math spx 878 yesterday
less 31 pts per level X 2 = 62 pts which then gets us to 816

NOW Use the 40 pt rule of thumb
The LOW at 755 on Nov 21
to the Hi on Jan 6th @ 935 = 180 pts
935 - 3 levels of 40 = 120 = spx 815

So now we have 2 methods to get to 815
Fascinating

2 of my most reliable gauges show a gain tomrrow, but not making to the end of day
Power index shows a rise part of the day and drop end of day
this confirms the above timing

More later
Jay

Dec LOWS

IMO
TODAY

DEc 1st lows = SPX 816

A drop today to dow 8000 = 448 pts

dow 448 / 8 = 56

871 - 56 spx points = spx @ 815

= the DEC 1st closing LOW

More later
Jay

Bulletin - read all about it

THE JAYWIZ index TODAY came in at a very LOW .12 -- Extremely bearish
that shows rampant exhuberance

ALSO
CBOE PC ratio = .92 > under 100
OEX pc ratio yesterday was .64 and today .94 both also exhuberant
SPX pc ratio = 1.20 > neutral
oil gained back only 1.08, not enuf to signal a strong upturn
If tomrrow, OIL gains on the day, then it will confirm Thursday
Im still looking for $1.25/gallon by summer

Tomorrows reading
Expect surprises
UPSETS
Do not travel
Do not accept PEACE at any price

NOW does that sound like a good day to you?
If it does, then you need to see Jack Bauer (G)

Tomorrow, however, starts with
SUN 120 MOON at 9:38 and the DAY IMPROVES from there

Friday, however, slips back into trash mode
emotions out of hand
Keep secrets
Its also 56 tr days = 14 transits of 26hr cycles from oct 27th @ 4pm

In the 8 day cycle- Jan 14th is the 8 day LOW
that means Jan 15th is the 8 day TURN - UP

But that doesn't preclude the 16th from dropping off again
but NOT a lower low, and that sets up the GO GO GO for next week

More later
Jay

Game Plan

I missed the 3pm high, but will buy puts on today's close
and selling them on tomrrows close - Wed

I will be buying calls on Wed close
and selling them on close on Thursday

I will be buying calls on Fridays close

Friday is
14 transits of 4 tr day cycles from oct 27th at 4pm
426 hrs from monday at 3;30

more later
Jay

REBOUND Missing

Activity index still Not perky and showing NO strength

Ibo,- from MY read his chart spx 877 maybe today's HIGH
spx At 875 at 10:10am = 1hr,5min from 3;30 low
OIL + $1.39 , after yesterdays loss of 3;30

it would be nice to see GAS prices lower
You remember when it was $4 and
I SAID it would be nice to see $2.50
Well, NOW it would be nice to see $1.25

Mkt down 4days from 6th at dow 9015 closed at 8474
Compare this WEEK to Nov 13 to Nov 20
Nov 20 to Jan 16 is 38 tr days, a typical LOW TO LOW

10:22 - Moon 135* Mars
180 Bars at 10;30
204 bars @ 12:30
55%/13 day @ 11:29
12:40 to 1pm should be hourly HIGH
228b @ 2:30
4;12pm LOW TIDE
We are in a possible Puetz crsh type window,
altho I dont expect anything lower than Dec
lows on spx at spx 818
The FULL moon was Jan 10, and the
NEW moon Solar Eclipse is jan 226th

Some are STIll expecting the 26th to be a severe LOW
I DO NOT AGREE AT ALL !!!
& I am still holding onto the opposite view

Its really simple
FEb 10th is the full moon Eclipse
ON the WAY up to OCT 2007 HIGHS, the FULL moons were highly energizing
Since then full moons have become more frequent associated with LOWS
ALSO
the READINGS associated with Jan 26th solar eclipse are HIGHLY posivite
the READINGS associated with Feb 10 Lunar eclipse are highly negatvie

So far we got EXACTLY AS expected TODAY - its NOON as I wrtie this
10;05 HIGH
10:30 low at 180 bars
11;29 low at 55%/13day

Im planning to get short at either 1pm or 3pm today
Tomrrow is expected to PLUNGE

more later
Jay

Jan 12 & 13

Mon & Tues point toward a rebound
863.19 on Dec 23 = 34 tr days from
Nov 4th High to Low
Hi to low dif = 68.61

68.61 X 62% = 42.54 - 931.80 = 889.26 hit at or
near close Friday

42.54 loss = Possible rebound highs
X 50% = 21.27       = spx 910.53
X 62 % = 26.38       = spx 915.64
X 78.6% = 33.44      =  spx 922.70

STill got RADAR on the 16th IMPORTANT LOW
38 tr days from Nov 20 a typical LOW to LOW,

16th Also has:
78.6%/13 day @ 11:55
204 bar cycle LOW @ noon

NEXT week the spx should break under
890 to retest DEC lows at 863.19
From a HIGH of potential at 922 down to 863
= dow about 500 pts to 8400/8500 area

SOME are expecting A MUCH MORE serious decline
as many did in DEC 2008
Remember I warned several times not to
side with the WRONG CROWD
In fact I wrote that after Dec 15th , you can be as bullish as you want,
 and buy anything that has take a hard hit.

Please DO NOT SUCCUMB to the NEGATIVE VIBES that
these people are subjecting their readers, and or
subscribers with such a heavy load

Dec held 8400, and more is coming the week of
20th to 26th, And it may be one of the best rallies of the year

Negative Sentiment should build into the
16th as per the LOWS on Jan 16.

More later
Jay

Jan8th

This ONE happens to looks GOOD to Me, with possible slight variations

EXPECT a HUGE RALLY tomorrow ___JAN9th___ with some follow thru into Monday

More later
Jay

EHH - Whats Up Doc ?

Obviously, NOT the stock market this AM

As PROMISED, a Sharply LOWER OPEN

Futures at 8:45 are off at least 100 dow pts

10am is still the initial target time for a brief low
and could continue to 11am for reasons already posted

A 1pm rebound high should be shorted again if the mkt does rally to that point

Gauges for EAST Coast & Mid West are PLUNGING
Activity index is under Level # 1 and is FLAT
Power index shows continued declines thru the 9th
9th also has an important 52 hr cycle low @ 3:15pm

Helge and some others are NOW projecting MY WELL KNOWN forecast for Jan 20 to 26
expect a solid run up from Jan 20 to Jan 26
PLUS
Subsequent decline from Jan 27 to Feb 11th

Pass the word to your friends and associates

More later
Jay

Wed Jan 7th

Wow its already the 7th and I havent even washed my face (G) just kidding around
need some levity on occasion (GG)

What about the 7th ?/

Should open GAP DOWN
120bars @ 10am
23.6%/13 day cycle @ 10:56
Hourly at 10:41

So we should see the LOD at least for the AM between 10 and 11am

Expect a decent rebound by 1pm, the mid day hourly

sell off at closing

As for Thrusday, a mellow nothing day

The party starts again on Friday
38.2 % / 13 day at 10:12
but thats only to start
52 hour low at 3;15 should be the LOD

Please do NOT accept my predictions as the GOSPEL
I have been dead wrong many times


Now that ive mentioned that there are DOOMSDAY predictions being passed around for
Jan 20 to 26th

I dont know where they are getting the information to DISTORT the positive power
of the aspects between those dates as well as a NEW moon Solar eclipse n the 26th.

That whole time period is CLUSTERED with POSITIVE aspects juicing mankind to be OPTIMISTIC
Yes, OK that optimism might be misplaced COMPARED to when we get to 2012, but for now its REAL and POWERFULLY positive

As Ive written b4
2009 is NOT 2008
a bear mkt can offer as much as a 78.6% rebound of about 5000 points getting the dow back to 13k
that was the level in May 2008 where the mkt really started to melt down

I took notice and paid TOOO much attention to some shmuck who professed teh spx was giong down to 600 in DEC and I did not trade well at all
I learned MY lesson and will not be swayed by others
Follow those with a good track record, and even they can get FARBLOONGED at times
BUT youve got to recognize when its time to hold'em and time to fold'em

more later
Jay

SO far SO good

You need'nt report things like your opinion of charts edge
I wasnt born yesterday, and didnt fall off the back of the mellon truck

I report things like that when I think others should see it

NOW that Ive yelled at you

Yes Shankar, Ive got Feb / March 2012 as an extreme low at dow 4000

BUT FOR NOW
I bot CALLS @ 90bars at my 2pm LOW
SOld them at 2:55pm, nice gain of .50bp's

BOT puts at 3:05 pm and now UP in value, which I will hold till 10am tomrrow
Its now 3;39pm as I write this, and i might even buy more at close

More later
Jay

TODAY

He's missing an OPEN rally which I missed also,
but FUTURES are +10 SPX pts
10:44 is first hourly and could be the dyasHOD

Bar cycle LOWS match HIS chart
60B @ 11:30
90b@ 2:00

Hourly TURN at 3.08pm could by a HIGh rather than 4pm,
but that remains to be seen -
IF, ~~~ 3:08 pm turns in a HIGh that mtaches 10:44, then I will
deem it as a HIGH, and I will be looking to buy puts at that time

Lets ALSO watch OIL prices to see if it backs OFF the opening highs
I THINK that would be Ibo's clue to future SPX prices

Since I am expecting the 7th to OPEN in EXACT reverse of today,
we should see oil back off today

Jay__._,_.___

short term volatility

A little more volatility should return this week AFTER the close of the 6th as a HIGH of the week

Wed Jan 7th is slated to start with a THUMP lower

recovery should be weak and a low is due on the 9th
9th has
a 38.2%/ 13 day segment at 10:12am
AND
a 52 hour cycle low @ 3:15 pm
Jay

January 2009

JUST FOR CLARIFICATION

Jan 2009
High on Jan 6th
High on Jan 13th
Low on jan 16th = BUY BUY BUY
Dont get left behind, because Tuesday Jan 20 will already be
pushing its way higher from the European trading on the 19th.

EXPECT A HUGE RALLY from Jan 20 to Jan 26th
might be the biggest weve ever seen
but thats typical of bear mkt rallies- YES bear mkt
even tho Im expecting as much as a 5000 point gain in 2009
ITS still a BEAR mkt

Jan 27 to Feb 10 is setup to take some of that away
Maybe more than we would like to see. but thats for later
got to feed those bears on occasion (G)

Jay

The Week Ahead

Get ready for some wild gyrations this week with a moderate bias lower
a 1500 point gain from Nov 21st should get us some back and fill this week

Should look like
5th- DOWN monday, better close
6th Up Tuesday bias
7th morning bust with moderate recovery
8th biased lower
9th LOW at 3;15pm = 4day

REBOUND HIGHS on 12/13th

More later
Jay

NEWS is NOISE

NEWS IS NOISE -You got that right !!!

Also TOO Many cooks spoil the SOUP
TOO much input

Your right stick to what you KNOW

Just like Nov 4th, a 13 day cycle hit at 10 ;15, a little early than expected but it was still there
Dec 22nd had a 4 day cycle hit at noon with 180 bars, BUT it was NOT the LOD - so what it does not have to be

Dec29th hit a 4 day low at 1:30, a few minutes late due to 204 bars at 1;30-- fantastic
NOW then - WHATS NEXT ??

We got a short term high on Jan 2nd and I told you 2009 WILL NOT REPEAT Jan 2008- so yuo have an up day of 258 pts on Jan 2nd , first day of trading, against all odds- WHAT DOES THAT TELL YOU

I still have analysts SCREAMING spx 600 this year and Obama look out for dangerous times
BULL SHIT
Its going to be an up year and recover as much as 5000 dow points by Jan 2010

The next few years 2009 to 2012 will look similar to 1998 to 2002
2009 to look like 1999
2010 will look like 2000
2011 will look like 2001
Etc

Now; WHAT ABOUT Monday,
Where is that 4 day cycle mentioned above ??????
IT IS DUE at 12:15 On Monday - could be a little late as there is a 258 bar cycle at 1pm
the next catapult higher ??
Yes it keeps on rolling along

BUT the most important thing from there is a continuation of the UPSWING to the 7th and or 8th
*********Watch out for the 9th at 3;15 pm has the NEXT 4 day setback

Expect a HIGH of significance on the 12th or 13th
with the next 4 day cycle low on the 15th @ 3pm

More later
Jay

Happy NEW year 2009

first day of trading will NOT be well received

Friday JAN 2nd is slated to start down 
with a bang and could keep sliding till 3pm

10;30 is 100% /13 day cycle
150 bars @ 10:30
Hourly @ 10:49am

204 Bar @ 3pm+  3.08 pm hourly

Unless 1pm hits the LOD @ 180 bars
moon 180 Jupiter @ 1:24 calls for INSECURITY

East coast and mid west guages are pointing UP 
strongly Leads me to look for closing rally on Friday

Power index slides, but has a late rebound

Monday Jan 5th is another day that can gyrate
DOWN at OPEN and close better

The BIG gains are due on Jan 6 & 7
 More later
Jay