CURRENT VIEW

LOOKS LIKE A BACK KISS Filling the GAP from LAST week

Now that wave "A" is really complete, we should see a deeper drop in wave "B"

and MY target is STILL Friday at 2pm

ONE DAY LATE - thats going to be my new mantra
and for some one who understands the psych of aspects this is becoming un excusable
Dont worry, Ive been beating myself up without your help
high Energy dissipates after 10:23 am

Couple of details
CNBC keeps on telling us that the consensus says they are expecting a decline,
BUT Then they turn it around to say the mkt wont accomodate
which really means they think the rally will continue

TICK closed on a HIGH + 1059 = bearish
VOLUME yesterday 1.4 bil = bearish
CBOE pc ratio = 78 = bearish
SPDR = 1.42 = neutral
oex pc ratio = 1.13 = neutral
_________________________

Prop indx drops at open, but doesnt give up much later
for tomrrow, it also wants to hold its own and not give up much either
power index agrees , but gives it up on Ths & Fri

midnite hige tide tonight
New moon this wkend

Dollar and stocks seem inverted, which means that gold & stocks should track,
other than yesterday, it doesnt seem to be working - YET.

Moon 0Uranus at noon today
258bars at 10;30
30b @ 1pm
60b@ 3;30

more later
Jay

More Long term

Another LONG TERM VIEW

Unprecedented # of MONTHS under the trend line

NOT a pretty picture for long term, and supports the idea for Dow 4000 by 2012

Jay

Long term view

A LONG TERM VIEW FROM ETHAN
Thanks, Ethan

DOW 4000 by late 2011 or early 2012

Jay

Tim's latest chart

As previously MENTIONED, I am STILL looking for a PIVOT LOW on May22nd at 2pm

Tim's chat above shows a pivot low as potential on May21st at noon

We are getting much closer to each others projections !!

He also projects June2nd on another chart as a HIGh and Ive been quoting June3rd.

Not bad for 2 analysts using TOTALLY different methods to arrive at very similar conclusions

Tim, whats going on at your new website?
cant log in
Jay

Sunday Update

PRELIM data

Prop ind & power index both show Monday to be an off day
most likely to hit a low once more at 3pm, and or close
Its showing a DOWN/UP/ DOWN type day

some call it a RED day high to low

Tuesday shows a possible strong up open, but I dont have enuf data for later yet
BUT midday low possibly around noon

More Later
Jay
Ok Its now later [g} 3:30pm

times for Monday

14.6% fibo segment/13day cycle low at 9:50am
180Bars cycle low at 10:30
204bars at 12;30
228 bars at 2;30
Hourly cycle TURNS are still
11am
1pm
3pm
+- 15 min either way

Since there is an M 180*S @ 3;14, I would venture to guess the LOD at or near that time

more later
Jay

This WEEK"S GAME PLAN

latest chart from Rotrot, one of our followers
NYSE chart shows an even more dramatic turn

Amazing, one follower last week said they were leaving because my timing showed a 1pm high and 3pm low
on Tuesday - I find that VERY amusing - Why ?, you ask.
I have been at MARKET GURU for about a month, and they are already
referring to me as a ROCK STAR @ 2% top timers

BUt you read my forecasts here first

Answer this for me.
HOW MANY PEOPLE in this WORLD can forecast market direction at all
and for any period of time.
That person who left expects me to hit perfection every day,
and Intraday as well-- once again - amazing

Friday was AMAZING ALSO
Called for an open down - we got it
called for rebound - we got it
called for 2;30 low - we got it
called for last hour rebound - we got it
HOW MUCH MORE DO YOU WANT?

Just from memory
I called the Nov 21st LOW within 5minutes
called the March 9th low within 1day
Called the May8th high within a couple days
and thats ok because tops roll

Whats Next
Monday's Power index is showing only a moderately off day
and might even start with a little bounce, and its showing the 20th as the bigger down day
which matches my previous outlook for ASTRO projections

As I wrote b4, GET ready this week to take advantage of this decline,
but ALSO get ready to BUY Friday's close for next next rebound rally
the 26th is characterized as a HIGH ENERGY DAY, and it doesnt stop there

More Later
Jay
ps; i dont mean this to be bragging, but someone has to bring it up
for now we are a well hidden gem, but one day maybe you'll hear my name on CNBC
HAHAHA
Im not Charles Nenner or Arch Crawford by any means whatsoever.
just one guy trying to make a living trading and willing to share his knowledge
they say what goes around comes around - Im waiting [g}

Fred's Chart

SPX fractals

Numbers not shown
BUT
SPX 898 he writes TARGET hit
and the LOWER level is RIGHT at 867

Matches the numbers posted by FLASH
Jay

BAR cycles

The 90 bar cycle low appears right on schedule for the open

the power and prop indexes are both in agreement

What happens after the open?? good question

today we also have
126 bars at 12;30 & this matches Xtides chart for today -
sorry, I dont have permission to reproduce over here
150bars at 2:30pm
which means that 180 bars on Monday is at 10;30

BOTh the powr & prop indexes ALSO agree with potential LATE DAY intraday high
but its hard to tell when, best guess is between 3 & 3:45pm

Yesterday's high at 2:45pm was also difficult to read, but we have seen that
happen that way many many times.

FlashFusion did mentioned 898 on twitter as potential resistance -& was within 36cts.
His update has lots of numbers
SPX 901
SPX 891
SPX 867
Im Not sure how to fit them into trading today

Hmm
at 9am futures are moderating off earlier lows
BUT still off about 5 spx = dow 40
ACTIV index came off its high yesterday at 300 and has been holding at the 100 level all morning

Considering the variables, Im going to plan to sell my puts at noon to noon :30
on the 120 to 126 bar cycle low
THEN buy some back at about 3;30 IF the mkts has recovered at that time
If not then I will wait for Monday

It Still appears May20th could provide a low as previously written

More Later
Jay

many comments = UP mkt

Ibo's Latest chart of EW

Lots of COMMENTS today which has been noted b4,
= an UP market and we are getting just that , now + 63pts Dow

ITS NOW NOON :30, and the ACTIVITY INDEX has just JUMPED UP
from the 100 to the 266 level = an up mkt this afternoon

I have to admit that SOMETIMES the POWER INDEX is NOT easy to read,
and sometimes I DO misread it- ITS NOT the INDEX that is in error- ITS ME
same thing goes for ASTRO events

having said that , a FRESH look at the POWER INDEX TODAY
shows a PEAK AT TODAYS CLOSE - ITS A VERY CLEAR READING
FLUX indicator also shows an UP DAY.

IN ADDITION to that we HAVE a 90 bar cycle LOW due at EITHER 4pm or OPEN Fri.
Now, the POWER INDEX shows a HIGH at the end of day today, & it also shows a drop at open:
I am going out on a limb to say the OPEN tomrrow should be DOWN.

I will be BUYING DJX PUTS at CLOSE today.
One Caveat however, Keep some powder dry because both the
power & propensity indexes are showing recovery intraday Friday
THUS there is still potential to recover some & rebound intraday Friday,
offering another SELLING OPP mid day

SO, IF selling at close today, I will hold same cash back for Friday late also

Ive already bot some GLD puts - did WELL with last position,
and now gold is vulnerable again to a decline
GLD pc ratio yesterday was 22- waiting to see it tonight,
and might add more tomrrow if a lower ratio

ps;
Please dont fight among the commentators
& please offer constructive comments only
thanks

Summary thru June

May8th possible TOP of wave "A" as above chart shows
May20-22 low - sorry Tim
May 29th high
june1st dip
June 3rd-8th high
June17th MAJOR LOW maybe WAVE"B"
June 29 high
JULY looks like a true roller coaster- huge volatility


more later
Jay

THE MAY TOP ??

May can provide a high of significance

I DONT THINK it will be a TOP of significance
which means I dont see a return to spx 666 anytime this year

2011/2012 more probable
but in between we get lots of volatility

As you already know, Im looking for SPX 940 by Friday
Tim's Chart shows a high on May 22nd, but MY work suggests we will be
coming off that high on the 18th and more so on the 20th and 22nd
into the new moon time zone.

_________________________________________
OK, SO Whats Next

WE NOW have the POTENTIAL for Morning SELL OFF in reverse
of my previous interpretation, which was based on a sell off at 3pm or close today.

Tomrrow, opens DOWN, recovers, and sells off again till 3pm
then heads for spx 940 by Friday

more later
Jay

WHERE ARE WE Now

THIS Chart for 1938 is for comparison only - DO NOT REFER to exact dates for reference
HOWEVER, direction is UP off of the major low scored in April that year, thus March 9th this year

Note the strong 1st wave rally off the LOY
then an ABC setback which currently SHOULD begin Monday , and END on June18th, IMO.

From there, as mentioned B4
I AM BULLISH till at least early August for now, following astro
events as a guide up to the Aug 6th full moon
_______________________________________________________________
Yes Bobby Ricky - Follow your own system- thats what I do-
Despite others good intentions -I cannot allow other systems to corrupt my work,
but I DO ADD MORE AND MORE things such as the indexes to the right,
and I do peruse whats out there by other technicians and analysts
FOR EXAMPLE___________________________________________

Go to Kenny's website and he explains the OVERBOT at 85% bulls
this is HIS comment.
Well, with SPX futures bulls now at 85% according to the DSI and SPX 116 points off its 50 day moving average, I'd say this thing is getting way out of hand. Even the 20 day is well below the market at 872. The wave structure for wave 5 of (C) now counts almost complete unless wave 5 extends. I don't believe it will.
I don't know how deep a correction after this would be, but there is going to be a fight at the 870-875 area if it ever falls back to there. Of this I am quite certain.
End of QUOTE

__________________________________________________________
Ok Back to NOW

May8th FULL MOON = potential TOP
May 24th NEW MOOn = Potential low
June8-9th =FULL Moon = potential high
June 22 = new moon = potential low
_______________________________________________

Welcome follower # 62, and when commenting, please identify yourself with at least a single letter
btw, I dont understand how Xtrends got 690 followers- last month they had 550 -
and the info they put out like many other similar sites is what I call OVERLOAD


I do appologize for being off the mark, as my indexes of late have not been
giving me the kind of direction that I have grown accustomed to getting from them.
Hopefully thats just a temp setback, AND I am making some adjustments.
------------------------------------------------------
also
being in the BEAR CAMP has not done will since April28th, but that is about to change
As Ive ALSO written, WE MUST NOT BARK UP THE WRONG TREE or JUMP
on the WRONG BANDWAGON, and of course most important read the signs correctly
& That goes for BOTH directions.

IF I READ one sign correctly is the GUSHING bullishness from CNBC on Friday
and it fits well with Kenney's statement above

AFTER this next corrective phase from Now till Mid June, we must THEN REFOCUS
our THINKING toward a VERY BULLISH JULY into EARLY August.
We cannot allow perenial bears to inlfuence us when we are supposed to be bulls.
______________________________________

More Later
Jay

Bear Market Rallies

I posted this chart b4, but it BEARS watching

Im using it as a TEMPLATE as it also fits well with the LONG Kondratief wave that I posted b4 showing
the current time period in the WINTER of our discontent as witnessed by the market action of 2008

2008 continues till 2012 b4 it starts to rise from the 3 year winter period

What this got to do with today, you ask?
good question

The 1938 initial bottom was in April, fast forward to 2009 = March 9th
It would appear we are just about to set an initial LOW off the first rebound from March 9th, other than the April sideways triangle

This CHART also shows we are in a PRIMARY TREND REBOUND/ recovery from MARCH 9th which should make it till probably October before turning into another DOWNTREND.

______________________________________________________

OK lets talk TODAY and next week
FUTURES are pointing HIGHER-- SOOOOO WHHHAAAT !!
means nothing , UNLESS you want to SELL the OPEN - this for Bears with cash
the elevator is going DOWN thru Monday and MAYBE part of Tuesday

MY game plan is to SELL puts on Monday at close
and get ready to buy calls- its also EXPIRATION WEEK
astro is a bearish for monday
A little bearish for Tues
and mostly positive thru the 19th
I posted the entire month previously

Propensity index drops to a pivot low at close today
power index = ditto & lower for Monday- numbers posted b4
Full moon = Scorpio/Taurus - not a good combo for bulls

more later
Jay
9:30am

Update 5/7 @ 1:45pm

Lets DO the MATH
a retreat from spx 930 after a gain of 260 pts
fibo 38.2% to 50% = 104 to 130pts
thats 826 to 800 - those are both levels we have discussed b4
as previous supports on the way up.


Chief is looking for 855 and he's a pretty good technician
even if he snorts at the wrong time. And IMO, ITS this COMING Monday.
930-855 = 75 spx pts = 600 dow to 7900

Its possible we are topping a 3rd wave within a 5 wave sequence
still unfolding and wont really top till late May or early June as previously posted.

((Yes, I know all this BEARISH talk gets redundant because
we are suffering from our errant ways)).

ok now, back to biz.
THAT means wave 4 is coming up VERY SOON if not starting later
today. Some of my STUDIES indicates such is possible today,
but MORE likely TOmrrow & Monday

Since April was a 2nd wave triangle a,b,c,d,e: we would expect the 4th to be totally different.
And if it takes place in just 2 or 3 days coming up as described above, we should see the results
by Monday

_______________________________________
The ABOVE was written as a comment at 9am this morning
The PROPENSITY and POWER indexes are NOW in alignment heading toward
a resolution on May11th.

The activity index has been flat at the 200 level all day
polarity went negative yesterday

VHF is very active now reaching 9, (range from 0 to 25 )
the higher number, the bigger the sell off

FLUX is VERY LOW at 900= weakness

propensity index started at 3010, and is now at 2975

power index started at 600, and ends the day at 525
TOMRROW it started at 550, and ends at 400
Monday it drops to 300
BUT on TUESDAY & Wed it starts at 400 and runs UP to 700= ONE HUGE RALLY

MoreLater
Jay

Fred's Chart

Heres a better pic
sorry about the first one

more later
Jay

UPDATE

Heres a FRACTAL CHART from Fred Whilhelmus shows SPX911 exactly where we are right now
Now thats a memorable NUMBER

Chief may have it darn close-
expect a possible 855 low, then 1010 high

his best warnings are
SNORT and Yawn - IMO< and others -to be read inverted
Snort means we should get short , and
Yawn means its time to get long

As of May6th OPEN its a SNORT
_______________________________________________-
IMO< 855 seem as good as any level by Mon and or Tues -May11th & 12th
IMO< HIGH by June 3rd to 8th , to at least spx 940 or 970
________________________________________
If I remember from My Joe Granville days,
His CLX shows the strength or weakness of the dow 30 stocks
a plus # means strength or how many dow 30 stocks are up verses down
similar to OBV but based on price, not volume
a minus # is of course weakness
and the higher or lower = the magnitude of above
________________________________________
My propensity index and power indexes are locked in place till
May7th for example --- Up and DOWN today

May5th Bradley hit a high +30dow pts in the AM, then gave back

May7th Next Bradley, hmmm , sandwiched close together like April16/18
April 20 was off 300 pts
IN this case we would NOW look for a decline to follow May7th into May11th -12th

May11th power index + astro agree, thus
showing a potential for more severe decline such as April20
________________________________________________
OK Jay, Stop beating around the bush
heres ASTRO timing for May & June

May5th-7th BRADLEY highs
May11-12 LOW
May19th high
May22 low
June3rd = Bradley -MAJOR HIGH
June 14th & 18th Bradley = MAJOR LOW & CATAPULT to spx 1100 -
June & July = summer rally with good astro
August astro doesnt look very good - could get rough
____________________________________________
Back to this week for a moment
PC ratios were very bearish at close yesterday
Jaywiz index = .10 - also very bearish
Futures turned up at 8;30am as did MY ACTIVITY index as of 9am

repeat - power & propensity index show moderate rise today,
then retreat later
Tomrrow shows retreat early, moderate rise, and another late day retreat
SAME possible for Friday
in other words any attempt to make higher highs should be met with selling,
thus we get the resolution SELL OFF on May11th and 12th to spx 850 area -
some call it CHURNING
______________________________________
Monday is an 8 day LOW
Making Tuesday an 8 Day TURN

May7th -Mercury Retrograde usually takes a couple days before its
effect is seen in stock prices
Merc Direct has a more immediate effect on May31st,
thus the early June spurt accompanied with other pos astro & full moon until June8th.


More Later
Jay

Power index

Power index on May 4th did not show up as a high like we just saw

It did PREVIOUSLY ((and still does to some extent))
showed as a high on the 7th, holding on the 8th as I previously described
However,
Now that we have what looks like the SPX 909 HIGh that I mentioned for May7th,
We NOW have it on May4th, THEN COMES the old question **ARE WE THERE YET?

Mao said yes, and we thank him for his input- first time we have seen his comments
Please join in whenever you wish.

PROPENSITY index is sometimes hard to get a FIX on it over a wkend for Monday trading.
But now we can re align our outlook as that index NOW seems back in alignment
and is declining from 3019 as of the CLOSE of May4th to 3000 on the open of May6th

Also re aligning a look at the power index
shows a high on the 4th @ 450 dropping to 350 on open of the 6th
THEN bounces to 375 during the 6th & closing back at 350

Now we come to the 7th again.
its a BRADLEY date and that usually offers a high or turn, and this one could be both
the power index JUMPS to 450 mid day, then falls back to 350 by the close

8th shows a substantial decline is possible as the index continues lower to 300
thats as far as that one goes for now

Futures are heading lower this AM, and according to the PROPENSITY index
the mkt should go into a steady decline today and open lower tomorrow

WE ARE NOW PAST Astro that had a Sun 120 Saturn early this AM as
mentioned b4 + an inverted midnite low tide.
Astro is now leaning toward negative lunar aspects today into 10:12 tomrrow AM
which matches the power & Prop index readings

Since the 7th still has some potential to runup During the day,
we might consider covering shorts on the 6th, and re entering on that runup on the 7th.

as mentioned b4, THIS Full moon seems to be reading restrictive and confrontational
then
Astro for Monday May11th - 13th appears to have a steady menu of hard aspects,
and thus could setup a tradable LOW with a midnite inverted HIGH tide

More Later
Jay
9am Tuesday
PS, thanks for your support during times of question







Stress test results due on Thursday

Morning UPDATE

its 9am on May4th

Heres a 29 year SEASONAL GOLD chart from Moore Research
clearly shows a Typical FEB High and August LOW

Gold should make a LOW under 850 this week as stocks rally
and hold thru the full moon on Friday
___________________________________________

back to stocks
without going into all the detail surrounding my outlook,
here is a SUMMARY.

This morning it doesn't appear from futures that they are
going to plunge at the open as Charts Edge has proposed
BUT it could be tomrrow, or thru 10:30 at 258 bars
and again there is a 50%/13 day cycle at 2pm

My propensity index for TODAY shows the potential for a moderate rise
in the morning, but ENDING on the DAY"S LOW, and that matches well
with ASTRO

Tomrrow could start on a down trend, but should end on the upside leading to
a strong rally on Wed and Thursday

Friday appears to be a STALEMATE

other than today and part of tomrrow,
A stronger setback appears on hold till NEXT WEEK

More Later
Jay

WHERE ARE WE Now

Very nice graph from Ibo

Besides astro, theres some timing for Monday/Tuesday that I have mentioned b4
and here it is ALL OVER AGAIN
________________________________________________
May 5th is a Bradley date

Full moons have been coincidental with highs recently we should
consider a similar response this week also on the 8th even to the power index doesnt
reflect that for now

________________________________________
Some fascinating math
910 pts lost from 1576 to 666
910 X 23.6% = 215pts
667 + 215 = 882 and the spx has been playing around that number
for a few days now, but failing to stay above it

Next idea.
Murrey math level above 878 is 909
hold it now, *** 909,*** hmmm and the loss was 910pts --
coincidence or NOT- that is some question
_________________________________________________

Tuesday TIMING is
109 tr days Nov 20 low to low
233 tr days May30, a high to low
144 oct 1 high to low
AND its also
40 tr days from March 9th, which makes Monday 39 tr days
the cycle calls for 38 to 42 tr days , aver = 40

There is also a 50% of my 13 day cycle LOW occurring on Tuesday at 2pm
Remember Nov 21 at 11am- this cycle event is NOT an LOD, but it is an intrday
PIVOT

________________________________________________________
Power index also shows a low on 4th and partly on the 5th
THEN a big rebound on 6th & 7th & drops off on 8th
However,

7th is another Bradley date, and IF the 5th does actually offer a LOW & turn,
then it would be logical for the 7th to offer a short term high or because of the
FM, could be the 8th.

once again the full moon are high energy days, and NOW this one is also
an 8day HIGH, which makes the 11th an 8day TURN
_______________________________________________________-
I would still suspect 909 might be the near term target
above 909 = 940- which is just a number out there in waiting.
in any event , IMO, we are closer to a tipping point high which might NOT
actually occurr till May 18 or 19.

It also possible that volitility will continue to abate as we approach the real peak of MINOR A
thus when "B" does hit, it will seem like the RUG got pulled out from under
It might feel that way Mnday & Tuesday.

I think thats the reason why we get LESS commentary near those highs as
everything seems to SLOW DOWN and get SLEEPY, so to speak

THEN when its does hit, IT wakes us up and we go WHOOOH- what just happenned
thus we get lots of participation
comes down to the OLD STORY- people want to knwo- Thats why the MEDIA makes up
stories DAILY as to why the mkt did what it did on any given day- they MUST have a REASON

Huh, I was talking with one OLD guy at the pool, and gave him my June 18th date-
instead of a thank you, he wanted the answer to a question
what was the question- one word --- WWHHYYY ?

I had a 9th grade math teacher who everyone hated,
because She would ask how much is 2 + 2?
and God forbid you would answer 4 without having the answer to her next question
WWWHHHHYYYY ? she would scream it at you,
making you wish you just vanished from the room.

More Later
Jay

ASTRO

May4th =mars # Uranus = Frustrations explode
Mars 45 Jupiter expansive @ mid day
moon 150 jupiter = poor judgement
moon 180 uranus =foggy assessment
reading calls for inflamed tempers & disruptions

May5th = Moon 90 pluto at 11:23 = emotional conflict
Venus # Uranus @1:20pm = chaotic
May8th = moon 60 Saturn @ 4:59pm
full moon
____________________________________
THAT WAS THE YING
NOW the YANG
May 9th = Sun# Pluto = use of power to diminate
May11th = Mars 150 Saturn = conflict with authority & aggression
May12th = Merc 45 Mars = anger & verbal attacks
________________________
shifts again to Ying

May 15th at 7pm
Venus 45 Neptune
ROMANCE and or FANTASY

May 16th @wee hours in the AM

the SUN 90 Jupiter on May15th is accompanied with
EXPANSIVE OPTIMISM

and its followed within a few hours by SUn 60 Uranus = also quite positive.

17th Sun 90 Neptune
Idealism abounds, maybe too much so
18th
Sun 0 Merc
align yur goals with caution &
become financially sensible

19th @ 10;23 am
Jupiter 30 Uranus
Luck & good fortune
the day is also filled with positive lunar aspects
sun 60 moon

that was the YING
NOW comes the YANG

May20th
Merc 90 Neptune
Perspective skewed & confusing

Venus 150 Saturn
Stern & Abusive

Merc # Pluto
$$ encounters a harsh controlling force

Merc 90 Jupiter
lots of talk, but no answers

May 22nd
Mars II Saturn
RESTRAINT and blockages

sun 45 Venus
a lighter feeling

23
Sun 10 pluto
authority will try to control

24th Sunday New moon
Restlessness


25th memorial day
_______________________
SHIFT BACK to YING

26th
Mars 30 Uranus
take action - explore new
Mars 60 Jupiter =ENTHUSIASM
Mars 60 Neptune = Inspiration & hope
27th
Jupiter 0 Neptune
Inflated & unrealistc hopes & dreams abound

More Later
Jay

8:25 AM

May4th = A Cycle LOW

May1st should linger all day till 3pm when a sharp retreat should
close the day lower leading to the May4th low as below

May4th is 108 tr days from Nov 20th and offers a market LOW
HOW low ?/ possibly spx 840 - 845

May5th offers a PIVOT day which should take off AFTER 2pm
why 2pm = 50% of the 13 day cycle Low

May6th - big rally continues

Thats as far as my power & propensity indexes takes me for now

UNLIKE some ELLIOTT technicians, I do NOT see a sharp decline to
spx 800 at this time

After the Low on Monday the mkt should continue its march higher
and once above 878 with volume, it should make it to its next resistance
at 909.

more later
Jay