Market Timing-Whats Next -June 16th - Closing Report

 

Would you be angry if a I just wrote - WOW

June16 @ 8am

SPX closed just barely under the low of Jn13th at 1265.42
What could that mean?

Ive mentioned this several times
Neg Energy & 156Bars meet at open tomrroow
which means we "should" /could" open at 1250 to 1225,
but is that the end of it?

Not according to the power data
tomrrow it shows a mid day high, matching high energy indicated at 1;23pm.
then it looks lower at the end of the day, also matching neg energy
 but we have no idea if it will close on a lower low or not. -I doubt it.
____________
Interesting - the power data ALSO indicates a DOWN to flat OPEN
on Friday, and IMV, that would be ONE HELL OF A BUY. as it climbs higher
from there into Monday/ Tuesday.

Charts edge was certainly way off today, but he does show a
SHARPLY LOWER open for tomorrw, then higher into the 17th and higher yet.

Can we get under 1200 tomorrow??
Correct me if you see something else but today looks like
a 1,2 & 1,2 now waiting for 3 which makes sense given the above
156bars at open & Neg energy = wave 3
180bars at 11:30 AM could be wave 5
but lets wee where the spx opens after a few minutes
I will be very tempted to close out shorts, but might only do a 1/2 close
and hold 1/2 till 180bars.
_________
then they start to build waves 1,2 on the UPSIDE for a high on the 20th/21stAM.

Jaywiz index still very bearish at .24
but all the PC ratios have more bullish readings

short term overbot on the 14th
THE 5 day ARMS index gave a SELL yesterday at .87 - this is 5 day ave
& 5 day trin was 435 - this is 5 day cum
Today's ARMS INDEX = 2.41, building 5 & 10 day up to more bullish levels
but NO SCREAMING BUY YET
SAME WITH VIX @ 21.32--  wouldn't we expect it to hit 30??

IDEALLY
I would think that a SHARPLY LOWER open would back off till
10 to 10;30, then head into the 180b pivot @ 11;30, making a lower low
BUT of course the mkt may have other ideas.

There is NO other TIME that this 3rd wave low can be accomplished
the 24th has to be the low as my monthly ENERGY graph indicates.
thus that has to become the 5th wave ending the correction and WAVE (1)
which will then give us wave (2) early August

EKG also shows a lower open, and all the above hinges on lower futures
as of 7pm WEd Jn15, as I write this, the futures are only up slightly spoos +2.10
Of course there is housing starts & Jobless claims at 8:30am for which they can feed off
Oil up .65 cts also at 7pm
but its a LONG long time till 9:30am, and if both Asia & Europe are markedly lower
should feed the bears also.

Heres something else- CNBC comments bottom fishing tonight
A bottom has to accompany neg sentiment- where the comments are NOT conducive to buying

ASIA & EUROPE DOWN 1%+
OIL FLAT AT 8am
DOW future down 52
spx -5.50

More Later

Jay

Market Timing-Whats Next -June 15th - Wave report

Regardless of incorrect Elliott labels , YOU GET THE POINT

If this is correct, we should see the results at close today

WAVE v = [i] -  I know thats not correct labels, but it doesnt change the outcome
1345-1305= 40 pts, hmmm theres that 40pts rule of thumb again
1292 -40 pts = 1252
AND THATS what I had projected back in May.

THe final wave 5 on the 24th could exceed 1252 to 1235, or not, but its not important right this minute
more later

Jay

Market Timing-Whats Next -June 15th - Morning Report

June15th @ 8:25am

AT 8:35 S&P futures NOW OFF 12.20 and dow off 100
Europe DOWN
OIL down


Frequently then the EKG has a long tail indicating a lower close, and the mkt only starts to sell off
at the end of the day, it follows thru the next morning.

Some are thinking that June 13 @ 1266 was the wave 3 low
IMV, i think it will be today a little lower & should set the CLOSING LOW of the week
adn teh clsoing low of wave 3

TOmrrow AM appears should open lower, thus really setting the wave 3 intraday low
and thats why the JAYWIZ charts show a rally on Friday

Remember I mentioned that some techs posted today as a cycle convergence
 AND TODAY SHOULD LOOK JUST LIKE JUNE 1st Eclipse day which followed May31st rally day,

Psych read for today
$$ affairs come to a head - goes along with the above cycle convergence

90b @ 10:30
126b @ 1:30
156b @ 4pm or OPEN NEXT DAY


Thsday
JARRING Morning
wild mood swings today
Looks like that 156b pivot might be hitting at open.
228b @ 3;30- could be the most important turn of the week


More Later
Jay

Market Timing-Whats Next -June 14th - Morning adjunct

I cant seem to Manipulate the blog to get both charts side by side but this shows you the EXTREME Downtrend the mkt is in RIGHT NOW< and the likely CULMINATION to 1200
or lower in the next 3 days.
Wed at 4;14 is Full moon lunar ECLIPSE
June 1st was a New moon Solar Eclipse

Eclipses are generally HIGHLY energetic, and can have
Exacerbated influences in Either DIRECTION which right now is DOWN.

Jay

Market Timing-Whats Next -June 14th - Closing Report

June 14th @ 8:30am

The market is double vulnerable at this point in time.
IF 1266 breaks, then we should see the CULMINATION of Wv 3

Jaywiz index bearish 4 days in a row

Pc ratios bearish - 3 days in a row & KEY  OEX ratio = 1.05%
and this one has been above 1.50 every day since June1st

Some techs have mentioned a 13% correction from 1370 would = 1167

There is other data such as OPTION open interest which some techs are hanging onto
claiming it has bullish connotations this week= OPT EXP week. but this can stretch out
just like it does at the other end when in a strong trend.

IT does look like we are about to enter the iii.3 - A third of a third- of 3
Consider that a TRADERS PERFECT DREAM DATE.

Psych read for today
NOON stand off
$$ losses
Delays & interuptions
quarrels & tempers

WED psych
$$ Affairs come to a HEAD
Unstable trends

Thsday
Jarring START
wild mood swings
Make changes

Friday
OVERCOME the last 2 days-- Jubillant

More Later
Jay

Market Timing-Whats Next -June 13th - Morning update

Power DATA shows daily INFLUENCES this week

Jay

Monday
Has neg energy all day long, but seems to CREST between 11:30 and 2pm
Problems fade as the day progresses
BUT
Psych read indicates -  HEATED ARGUMENTS & $$ losses
Mid DAY Unpleasant & Tension filled Crescendo

Bar Pivots, and these not the bar stools at your local pub-[g]
180bars should hit at open, and did start Friday after 3:30
204b @ 11:30
228B @ 1:30
258B @ 4pm,
get ready for BIG UP OPEN Tuesday TILL NOON

Neg energy
11am
1;44pm
3:00pm

more later
Jay

Market Timing-Whats Next -June 13th - Closing Report

 

another perfect EKG projection published at 8:30am, 

I dont understand why this blog only has 31,000 visits, 

PLEASE pass ME on to your broker, financial advisor, aunt, 

uncle, etc - you get the point, Thanks, 

and ONCE again thank you for your generous donations, thus gaining entrance

to the VIP group- Jay

 

As we can see from the Futures this AM, we will NOT have a DOWN open, 

and my 80%  sure DOWN open turns to zero on that call, but that doesn't change the 

days negative overtones using the original timing based on bar pivots & energy. 

It's NOW obvious that 180bars hit on Friday's close, thus 258bars will hit on today's close, 

but that does not insure the lod at close- remember NOT to pay attention to 

the AMPLITUDE depicted by the EKG. IT does not mean a HUGE Rally, 

and there's no way to tell WHEN the high or low will occur using the EKG. 

Jay-  JUNE13th @ 8am

Sunday June 12 @ 6:15pm

I was afraid of that, and didn't mention it before

180BARS  hits RIGHT AT open and can last up to 15 minutes overtime
Neg energy accompanies the 180b @ 9:35am
SO FAR SO GOOD, at least for the OPEN

NOW heres some of the problem, we really cant determine TIME from the EKG alone, so we have to look at other venues, such as the POWER DATA, and that agrees with the EKG as providing some uplift during the mid day hours

A NOON to MID DAY STAND off was mentioned, but the energy seemed to have a negative tone.
However as we see NOW from the EKG, & PD, that may NOT be the case.

THE POWER DATA for the 14th does however show a drop at the end of the day, but we will have to wait it out to if the EKG confirms.

SO from what it looks NOW as we approach evening, June13th probably WONT be a flash crash day,
AND there seems to be a HARD battle between the sellers & buyers. THE VIX at 18.80 shows us there is NO FEAR, and the BUY the DIP crowd is there every time, so far.
  
ITS AMAZING HOW a rising market only occasionally has strong back offs, but a falling mkt gets lots of support from the BUY DIP crowd at every opportunity.

Just because June 13th doesn't flash crash, DOESNT CHANGE anything else about the wave structure,
or a potential break of 1250 on Tues afternoon into WEd afternoon and Thsday at open.

That means Thsday's open should offer a really great buy opp for a few days till a June20th high.

more later
Jay

Market Timing-Whats Next -June 12th - Wkend update -WHAT IF

WHAT IF the COUNT above from Michael Eckert of Columbia1 has it right?
What could that mean for MONDAY- JUNE 13th?

I'll try to answer that question ahead of tomorrow's POTENTIAL CRASH WEEK

June 13th has some similarities to the May6th FLASH CRASH DAY, but obviously we
will NEVER have another day like that again, or at least not in the foreseeable future

However, lets do some MATH to see just what is possible, IF not just probable.

WAVE 1 above was from 1370 to 1312 = 59pts

We had previously discussed 58 x 1.618 = 95pts from top of wave 2 @ 1345 would get to 1250
however, AS we look at the wave structure, we know that we just entered the HEART of this cycle
in WAVE iii of [iii] of 3 and that could get very serious.
1250 is only 21 pts away from Friday's close and is a fairly easy target.
OR
58 x 2.618 is another possible take = 152 pts , thus dropping the spx to 1193,
which could take 3 days to complete by the 15th or open on the 16th

As previously mentioned, Monday will show the Markets TRUE COLORS.

more later
Jay
Jay

Market Timing-Whats Next -June 12th - Wave Report & Projections

I think I labeled this correctly, but even if NOT exactly as an Elliott officionado-
YOU GET THE POINT

Most of the Elliott wavers and or chartists are viewing the market today with potential to STILL
attempt to go back to 1370, or at least 1312 in the next few days.
BUT
Most Elliotticians do not EMPLOY the USE of ENERGY, or any of the other tools that
Ive been showing you for the last 2 years.

AS Daneric wrote today, IF spx 1250 BREAKS, then the chances of getting to or above
will dwindle from slim to none.

A Corrective wave that occurs in 5 distinct waves as this one seems to be accruing, THAT is ONLY
the START of a LONG TERM corrective pattern that will take us to 2012, and 2013 before
its really over.

Some techs are even looking at a 33 year cycle from 1982 = 2015,
2015 could also be a LOW, yes, BUT IMV, it might only be a setback from an initial wave
in the NEXT IMPULSE SERIES coming out of the Kondratieff Winter into Spring.
And that CYCLE can run from 55 to 70 years, so its in NO HURRY to make astounding new
highs.



PROJECTIONS
This down leg began on June1st at 1345, and wave i lost 40pts to 1305

IF wave v of IV = the same, then 1294 - 40 = 1254, and MANY techs will jump on that right away.
claiming the correction might be over,
BUT
40X 1.618 = 65pts - 1294 = 1229
If wave v of IV gets to 1229 this week,  and or next week on the 24th,
then all hope of making news highs above 1370 this year should be considered lost.
And IMV, as above for next 3 to 4 years.

MORE LATER
Jay

Market Timing-Whats Next -June 12th - Weekend Report

Published Sunday 8:30am-June 12th

 

Monday
Has neg energy all day long, but seems to CREST between 11:30 and 2pm
Problems fade as the day progresses
BUT
Psych read indicates -  HEATED ARGUMENTS & $$ losses
Mid DAY Unpleasant & Tension filled Crescendo

Bar Pivots, and these not the bar stools at your local pub-[g]
180bars should hit at open, and did start Friday after 3:30
204b @ 11:30
228B @ 1:30
258B @ 4pm, get ready for BIG OPEN Tuesday
When I first started discussing bars, there was a comment about where to find them.
- haha - not funny , IMV.

Neg energy effects
9:35am
1;44pm
3:00pm

Jay

Market Timing-Whats Next -June 11th - weekend Report

originally published May31st, updated Jume8th

Jay

Market Timing-Whats Next -June 10th - comparison report

7th -19
8th -22
9th +75
10th - 172

Jay

Market Timing-Whats Next -June 10th - Closing Report

 

I dont know how ANYONE can CALL this 

AMAZING tool anything but 

INCREDIBLE-

ITS BEING PUBLISHED for EVERYONE's BENEFIT- 

Maybe I should keep it to myself until the day is over

and then show it to you.

but then of course you would say Im making it up , 

so here it is for real every day at 8:30 am 

80% DAILY ACCURACY since Jan 2011

Jay

Impact Stream at 3pm

June 10th @ 9am

HIghs possible today at 10:18 and or noon


This decline started May 2nd, 2011
It is happening in 5 waves-- whats that MEAN?

IMV- IT means the market TOPPED MAY 2nd at 1370 right at the 78.6% retrace
without any large correction in between - biggest was last summer - spx -210pts

IT also means that a 5 wave correction will be labeled as wave [1]
so what, you say. When the FIRST wave down occurs in 5 waves, you can expect
that will be just the start of a long term correction and wave [2] on Aug 6th should not
exceed 1370. From there, it will probably be another 2 years to 2013 before we reach
the end of a long and tedious downtrend very similar to 2002 - 2003.

AS for now we can expect the mkt to now head to a low at 1254 on or b4 June 14 to 16

Once wave 3  is completed at that level, we still should get wave 4 on June 20
and  wave 5 on June 24.

Given for now a low of 1254, took away 95 pts from 1345
the 4th wve rebound should =
38% x 95 = 36 pts + 1254= 1290, where it is right now at the high of wave iv.[iii].3
You can Do the math for 50% & 62 %

From 1290-1295, wave v should duplicate wave 1 of 58pts- was 1370 -1312
which gives us 1295- 58 = 1237 scheduled for June 24th
which I mentioned b4 using another math method

more later
Jay

Market Timing-Whats Next -June 9th - Closing Report

t in

JUST IN CASE YOU ARE LITTLE LOST at the moment, heres an advance look at Tomorrow's PARTIAL EKG till about NOON corroborating the ENERGY & Psych readings. Wave [ii] was a simple abc, so wave [iv] should look a little different

.

***********

Given the open today. This is what the ekg should have shown, thus consider the lower graph an error of my own judgement, anticipating too much.too soon.

June 9th at 8:40am

Unless something changes between 8:45 and 9:30, the futures are indicating an up open

Yesterday's bar pivots hit right on schedule
WHAT DID HAPPEN YESTERDAY and what can we expect next now that we got a run to 1288 at 10am on the 13hour cycle- WILL That be the HOD? Maybe?

That CONTRACTING TRIANGLE formed yesterday - abcde = [iv].3
WHich meant that [v].3 would be about 9 pts lower = the widest part of the triangle
1287 to 1278 at 2;30pm
The 258bar cycle did hit a low at 2pm, but was exceeded at 2;30pm, not unusual to hit 6 bars later
the bar cycle can extend up to 12 bars, rare, but not unusual

NOW
Heres SOME PERSPECTIVE TO SEE HOW Yesterday FITS INTO THE OVERALL wave count

Given the above analysis, Today's rally would appear limited by fibo retracements 
19 pts down from the previous peak at 1296 to 1277
62%  x 19 = 12 + 1277 = 1289, just got there at 10;45am  could be wv a
78% x 19 = 15 + 1277 = 1292 could be wv c
wv b in between could back off to about the middle of that range to 1286- 1281 levels

Today
30b @ 10am
13hrs @ 10am hit an initial high at 1288
60b @ 12;30
90b @ 3pm
KEEP IN MIND THE TYPICAL DAILY TURNS @ 11am- 1pm & 3pm

Its very possible they will still trade SIDEWAYS today and tomrrow till 10:18 before
entering a 5th wave down to a MONDAY 4pm low close at 258bars and Neg energy in effect all day
14th has potential to make a secondary low also, and actually become [v].3

BUT THIS is STILL ALL wave 3 till the 14th from 1345 which still leaves 4 & 5 to go afterward, expecting it to end [v].5 on June 24th as my previous published monthly graph shows.

TOMRROW"S Psych read
JOY disappears in a puff of smoke

more later
Jay

Market Timing-Whats Next -June 9th - Prelim Report

June8th @ 6:30pm- subject to change at 8:30am

Jay

Market Timing-Whats Next -June 8th - Morning update

DOWN TREND CONTINUES

Market Timing-Whats Next -June 8th - Closing Report

June 8th @ 8am

Advance EKG for TOMRROW AM - THSDAY open

Previous comments indicated potential to get back over 1300 yesterday,
and there was some evidence to support that premise
HOWEVER,
THAT SHIP HAS SAILED

Yesterday we got  1296- 1290- 1296   - a clear ABC for wave [iv]
which means wave [v] NOW in progress & SPX to 1200 or lower by Friday

THE EKG for TODAY shows a mid day low, rebound, and late drop off
Thsday, so far as is available shows exactly what had been projected by other means
for an OPENING dive to the LOD, imv.

what are today's influences
204bars at open - a no brainer at the moment
228bars @ 11:30
258Bars @ 2pm

minor Pos energy at open, & at 8:45 we can see its influence bringing the futures back from the brink of disaster, but its very short lived exactly at 9:30
Neg energy at 12:32
Neg energy at 2:05
neg After hours @ 5pm
13 day cycle pivot at 11am,

OPEN dive seems only the beginning - so watch closely to count 5 waves to a low point
3 waves recover, and start the next 5 wave decline ending tomrrow AT OPEN

PREVIOUSLY, we projected Thsday to OPEN DOWN, and then spend the rest of the day in an uptrend
The EKG, and POWER DATA are in SYNC with that outlook.

More later
Jay

Market Timing-Whats Next -Jaywiz -June Projection- update

Published June 7th at noon

Jay

Market Timing-Whats Next -June 1 to 10 -Energy update

PROOF is NOT BOASTING - JUST THE FACTS< Man'
Jay

Market Timing-Whats Next -June 7th - Closing Report

 

Impact stream shows early strength which wanes afterward

June 7th @ 8am

YES, I know, this looks just like what ACTUALLY happened yesterday

WILL it repeat that today, not very llikely, imo.

However, IT does agree with the POWER DATA source, so do be aware of a late drop off possible.
Maybe not as deep as this shows, but IVE WARNED MANY TIMES, ITS DIRECTION that counts, NOT AMPLITUDE.
Thus YESTERDAY was PERFECT as it showed an afternoon drop off which occurred from the mid day high at 1297 to a 3:15 low at 1285.

repeat Today's psych
expecting a little hangover from yesterday, thus we have potential
for a setback off the 39 hour, 10am high to that 11:30 double cycle pivot.

Bar cycle pivots today
150b @11:30
180B @ 2pm
204b @ close

The WAVE graph that I published yesterday would indicate an A-B -C rebound would be in effect most of today, thus the higher open and 11;30 pivot fit right into wave's A & B, leaving "C" UP to occur most of the day after 11;30am

MORE LATER
Jay