5 day- 5min chart
power index & propens appear to go higher after a lower open
but power index drops after mid day
propens no complete yet for tomrrow
OBV lacking against the higher price levels
Ravi
The decline looks like 5waves in a CHANNEL
but the rally looks ragged like an a-b-c x a-b- (( c still finishing))
Coy- TYX tracked equities until last hour
TYX dropped but stocks rebounded after 3:30
from an Astro site - POWERFUL CHANGES Aug 15th to 23rd
2pm LOW on 6th + 6 days x 6.5 hrs = 39 hours to Aug14th at 2pm
low to high
1;15 pm low on 11th + 13 hrs got today high at 1012.74 @ 1;10pm
Aug 6th to Aug 26th = 91 hrs = 14 days
39 hrs to Aug 14th as above + 52 hrs to Aug 26 @ 2pm
Aug 20th = 65 hrs from Aug 6th @ 2pm (( 39 + 26 ))
Aug 20 = 26 hrs from 14th at 2pm
When it hits, there will be regrets on Monday Aug17th
Aug 18th & 19th, 2008 dow was off 311 pts
Aug 13 to 16 , 2007 dow fell 724 pts intraday low at 1pm on 16th.
more later
Jay
Jay
72 comments:
Thanks jay. something big is about to happen. all I want is spx 935 and i break even. hope we hurry up and make higher high tomorrow and get it over with it.
sam
MAHAENDRA' CALL ON HIS WEBSITE:
"Big wave in 24 hours - gold is toward $750, silver $7.80 in first wave and euro toward 1.18......More - Wednesday, August 12, 2009, Mahendra Sharma"
IF ANYONE HAS DETAILS
MIKE
FROM FLASH:
A what could be significant MKT 4.3 month cycle turn is comin 8/28/09
about 2 hours ago from web
May be Jay you could get a better detsils here. I would assume a down leg. but his message is criptic.
sam
Sam
-YES Sam. I'm gettig excited about next weekk's start to the downleg too. In "Hurst" language , it's the final leg into the 8 week cycle, so set your downside targets and don't let anyone shake you out.
- And then there's the biggie in October. The 18 week cycle. At least a whole month of downside correction to look forward too.
Goodluck Sam
Billy
Interesting article ;
http://www.luckydays.tv/coming-stock-market-crash.html
Jay:
Re your 5 day , 5 minute chart.
There are five waves, but a 1,2,3,4,5 count is absulutely NOT valid because the 3 would then be smallest of 1,3 and 5.
1 9437.49 9323.52 -113.97
2 9323.52 9371.96 48.44
3 9371.96 9290.95 -81.01
4 9290.95 9339.77 48.82
5 9339.77 9217.19 -122.58
The same problem with SPX cash:
1 1018.00 1004.70 -13.3
2 1004.70 1010.12 5.42
3 1010.12 1000.99 -9.13
4 1000.99 1007.21 6.22
5 1007.21 992.40 -14.81
The correct count will be (a) =1,2,3, b=4 and c=5. Overnight numbers make that evenn more so.
We did not have a five down. We are likely to head beyond 1018 tomorrow or Monday early to 1026-1132 area.
Oh crap...atilla is very bearish. He is talking alot on his blog about incoming move. Glad I'm fully long. Market will explode higher soon.
I'll stand by what I said about 2 weeks ago. Aug. will end near a high
C
Cryptic messages from market prognosticators? No shit sherlock? LOL
Here is the deal. The prognosticators cast their predictions in a way that confuses and allows an "out" when they are wrong. Why not just say "be long on Thursday and go short on Friday at noon". That would be too simple. All I can say is "quit it Cota".
Anyone confident the S&P will hit 1026 on monday or friday?
Or will it stay below 1018 and plunge next week?
Linton
liton
1025 o+ likely Friday or Monday as we complete extended flat and break out of 1013. 1018 may remain orthodox top of A. Or, we may even finish A,B, C arond 1030+
1001 to 1013 =12
1013+12 = 1025
Thanks Ravi, Will go long till monday
new highs are a given today,the double zig zag doesnt look viable at all.read an interesting stat last night...whenever the bond has closed up a full point and es has closed at all positive,market has lost a minimum of 31 pts in the next 5 traded days.that doesnt mean to say we dont go higher first,but the stat says by next thursday we should be below 985.has triggered 42 times since 2001 we're led to believe with no failures! i cant verify those stats,but very interesting reading.one last blast higher will have me short and holding through next week unless todays high is breached.(provided we have a new high)if not short any new high monday.
minor bradley date set for tomorrow(saturday) too.all set for a top then finally.like that hasnt been said before....
and take a look at this,scheduled for today, luckydays.tv/coming-stock-market-crash.html
If the SnP makes a new high then as after8 suggested, we won't decline very much next 8 days.
And if the decline is rather tame, then the SnP will make a higher high in September.
And after new Sept. highs will we finally get a noteworthy correction BUT it won't make new lows in my opinion.
Newer highs would follow into the New Year perhaps but then WATCH OUT. It would be much better for the Bullish case going forward if we were to make new lows this year. Jmho
Sally
Linton:
After Wednesday's late hi, we appear to be in a triangle of which we have finished a,b,c,d and still need a e down towards 1008 before going up. Long entry nearer 1008 should be protected with a stop just below 1004.93 bottom of c of this triangle.
Of course we can break 1013 with gap open invalidating the triangle and not allowing a safer entry point with reasonably tight stop loss.
Best of luck. It is good to keep in mind that the next bigger move is likely to the downside.
DOW 4000 by Feb. 2010
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6fBEeFYa_XY
Jon
everyone- Thanks for the updates
thats great to know JON
does it help us NOW?
The traders here, incuding me are only interested in today, tomrrow & next week
Regardless of HOW we label the wave till NOW
TODAY IS THE END OF THIS BULL RUN
WAVE B starts later today and or Monday
WE will look back and afix the
wave accordingly
FLASH cannot COMMIT to DIRECTION by his own ADMITTANCE
Heres some good news for bulls
Activity index WAS at 166 earlier this AM at 6am
its NOW 9am, and its just ticked down to 66, so it would APPEAR that any open rally will be VERY SHORT LIVED, but in fact the futures are flat to lower
As I said-
its a FEEL GOOD day, emotionally and the BULLS FEEL good as does the general public, ala Media who have been telling us ALL WEEK, the RECESSION IS OVER
This is the TIME the RUG gets PULLED out from UNDER
IT HAPPENS TIME & TIME AGAIN
WE ARE FINALLY THERE
REMEMBER I had posted AUG17th to 26th , A FEW times now, this is a repeat
I am FULLY SHORT at Market GURU also
more later
Jay
Jay,
Equities gets "turned loose" at 15:00 because bonds stop trading.
Today's Picture -
Negatively biased.
High 11:10
Low 14:00
I'm sure there's other hits I don't know about.
News can distort.
hope u went short w/ me at the close yesterday...
pg
luckydays.tv/coming-stock-market-crash.html
"Black Friday"
You never know - I mean - EVERYONE is IN the market at present.
If the trap door opens , can everyone get out at the same time ?
Consumer sentiment = 70% of US economy.
Already we have seen the consumer has not bought the V recovery with retail down 0.1%.
And now the consumer is now saying NO !!
just covered my shorts...I made enough for now...reevaluate
pg
That was some impulsive wave down. Break of 1004.93, where I recommended stop loss in my last post earlier at 7:19 AM, negates call for a new hi.
Holding shorts with stop loss at 1013 now. A clean break of 992.40 will confirm that A top was in at 1018. looks like we are in 1 of (c) from 1018.
It is interesting that confirmation of a small deflation led to this 20 points of spx sell off, despite other benign info.
If and when we go into Primary 3, deflation should dominate the news.
RAVI,
"wave 1 of c"
Absolutely.
cheers
Donny
For Anon about atilla and his
big move coming. He and sol look at
chartsedge.com. Look at weekly
prediction chart. Today is down hard.
From Ian:
Highs are on 8/13 as expected. Ideally we should see a retest secondary high on Monday 8/17.
Target for this 1st decline is atleast 40-50 SP's from the Highs to the 7/29 Lows into 8/19 Lows.
Will update in the weekend
Watch out. Today's high or Monday's am high will be a good short entry. There is one potential lower high in the cards.
Ravi, what is your projection for the next dead cat bounce? 1004?
Mike
Mike 38.2% retrace is at1002.75 and 61.8% is around 1006.50. Looks like psychological 1000- to yesterday's low at 1000.82 are acting as resistance right now.
We got a double whammy, market reacted to 8:30AM CPI, Manf negatively and then 9:55AM Mich consumer survey broke the 1004.93 stop loss knife through butter.
JAY and anyone else.
Today's low?
2.00 ?
thanks
Sally
looks like we are doing an expanding triangle at the bottom. IF SO, down to 996 and up to 999.xx should do the trick for ii of (c).
It's funny how so many blogs were calling yesterday bullish. I really felt like the only one who thought it was very bearish. Goes to show you how much value these so called guru bloggers are worth lol. Don't tell me, they're all bearish now today after missing the biggest drop in a while.
pg
chartsedge is right about 60% of the time. If you like those odds, I have a magic 8 ball to sell u.
pg,
Chartsedge.com had today spot on
from 4 days ago on their weekly outlook. Very impressive. atilla and sol now use it.
Hi TSX traders. A trend signal confirmation about to occur. My mechanical system has given a signal cross and just waiting on a confirmation signal which looks close to confirming.
CAndi
Anon,
60 percent is not good enough for you? What works better than 60 percent of the time??
Sally,
Thank you for asking the question. My previously stated low is wrong.
Low 14:55
My apologies.
Coy
On cash SPX, yesterday's afternoon hi was a smidgen higher than the closing hi. With that in mind it is probably better to count today's early drop as iii of (i) of (c) from 1018 top. That would make the drop to 995 as v of (i)and Fibs 1002-1004-1006.
If we do a nice lazy three wave up by later today for a (ii) of (c) that can set up Monday -Tuesday for a (iii) of (c).
I agree ravi, that would be good entry for shorts. what is the ew target for ii of c IYO?
sam
Coy, pardon the stupid question, but just to be certain: is that Eastern or Central time 14:55)? TIA!
Sean
Sean,
Always Eastern.
BTW: No question is stupid. It's stupid not to ask.
Break of 992.40 will confirm 1018 top and open door for H&S target as well.
1018-992.40= 25.60
992.40-25.60= 966.80
close to another target at wave (iv) low of 968.65 on way up.
Sean,
That's today's low. I concentrate on today. I tend not to comment on the future, or what Monday will do. I'm a very short term trader.
Thanks, Coy -- my style as well (at least in this market)!
thanks Coy & Ravi
Sally
Could someone decode Flash' twitter message here? were 10/11 2007-2008 bottom and 2/23/2007 top?
We know 8/13/2009 is the top. all three dates seem to be the top.
@jaywiz10534 8/28/2009 is also related to 10/11/2007 & 10/10/2008 (exact); 8/13/2009 relates to 2/23/2007; best to you
It seems that flash is calling for major pull back
sam
sense a turn here, long tna 36.25 tight leash.
pg
Last lazy push towards 999.50 resistance?
That didn't work out. If we don't go down significantly, I'm holding till Monday.
I'm beginning to think a lot of front-running is going on with those super-computers on the second floor of the NYSE. They get first look.
Call me crazy, but I don't think it pays to give timing information. I also think that if you look at the $TRIN, in 1-min intervals, it shows the evidence of front-running in those elongated bars.
Have a happy week-end evey-one!
Coy
SP500 Sure looks like a bear flag
Donny
strugling for 4 hours to get from 994.60 to 1000. Will it make it finally?
strugling for 4 hours to get from 994.60 to 1000. Will it make it finally?
Ravi...
What happens at 1000?
Isabella
This target also close to H&S target of 966.80 and prior iv low target of or 968.65:
(a) 1018.00 992.40 -25.60
(b) 992.40 1013.14 20.74
(c) 1013.14 971.72 -41.42 1.618
Let us see if we have 966-972 as next move. first, need to break 992.40.
I think Monday's gap up will be perfect top. 1004-1007 I will short on the way down below 990 to ensure the direction.
sam
isabella:
Nothing at 1000, it was taking so long to get to that psychological level. As I posted earlier, the fib likely retrace area was 1002-1006 and we just kissed the low of the range.
sold tna $37.09 2% scalp...played this market like a fiddle today
pg
Jay,
Any updates for Monday.
Delete Comment From: Jaywiz Financial Re$ources
Blogger Ravi said...
Jay:
you did get your Friday rally from morning low to close.
The ew is set up for a (iii) of (c) fall on Monday. Looks like we ended at top of (ii) of (c) at 50% retrace at 1004, right in the middle of 1002-1006 range.
For shorts 1013 remains a stop loss and 970 area for profit taking or loss minimizing. That is +9 vs. -34.
the way this is moving up now is not very wave 2ish,looks impulsive again.dont tell me we get new highs monday! its getting boring now to be honest.
I say we go down hard Monday morning...just a wild guess. Rebuilding short position at the close. But I will quickly abandon this position if bloggers are bearish into weekend...lol
pg
Lost opportunity for the bears today with the low volume. I can only see a shallow correction next week that might take S&P to 985 as a worst case. This market is very strong with plenty of cash looking for an entry point. I don't believe we'll see a meaningfull correction unit mid October
John
Right on John,
LOTS of money looking for a home.
Fed is still easy with the cash.
My pee indicator is back in full effect. The market will now be contained by 1000 or xtrends are invalidated. Roundy roundy we go.
atilla
Goldman Sachs Response to High-Frequency Trading -
“High-frequency trading,” as practiced at Goldman Sachs, where you use super-fast computers to get a jump on deals, has come in for a lot of criticism lately reaching all the way up to Paul Krugman. I think these critiques are a bit off base. For one thing, no edge that Goldman has acquired based on using fast computers is going to stay in place for very long. For another thing, the “victims” here are just going to be other Wall Street types. Normal people have no business making investment decisions that depend on to-the-minute timing.
--
Diversion tactics. So much BS! To them, timers are not normal people.
Ravi
Your last comment is EXACTLY CORRECT
Monday opens with Merc 0 saturn
= a DOSE OF REALITY
Monday and Tuesday could be UNRELENTING bull bashing
THE LOw next week should be at the convergence of 2 short term cycles as already posted on the main page
on the 20th at 2pm
Chankyas top was delayed a week, AS I POSTED for a severe sell off STARTING Aug 17th
HI SUPER buy on the 20th will ALSO be delayed till the 26th, and or 27th.
We Will discuss WHEN the NEXT most beneficial bear cycle will occur AFTER this cycle is complete
I posted OCT10th as a DUPLICATE to last years Oct10th HIGh, and thats still true- yyou need not comment on this-its too far away.
There seems to be MANY people, not seasoned traders who plug in here, and expect miracles.
I cant PUSH the mkt DOWn until it wants to go- sorry, I keep trying, but--
& You cant blame others for your inadequate trading.
Jay
YOU SAID IT RIGHT jAY
THANKS FOR YOUR WORK
and wish you all happy mon-tue bear ride. come on 950-935 and I am a happy camper. I will settle for 970 too. let us see what next week brings.
sam
Jay
I have not commented often, but do wish to let you know that there are those who admire your work, and appreciate your willingness to share it. Do you ever feel confident enough to provide a short view covering a (rough) view of possibilities over a two week period? I am not a day trader, more a position trader covering a week or so.
Best regards, Jeff
atilla,
I lost 4 million following your advice but I believe that eventually
you will be vindicated. I'm betting
another 2.5 mil on it.
sol,
your conversation with yourself is getting old.
snoop
Snoop:
I believe there are serious losses from the blog followers over the past few weeks. I hope nobody (including Sol) is playing with the rent money
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