Market Timing-Whats Next -April 15th Closing Report

April 15th @ 8:40

Impact stream seems to show EARLY strength, and drop off later,
which is consistent with the EKG, and my previous projection of
Elliott wave structure from April6th.

from 1303, it looks like abcx ab, now looking for one more "c" to reach
counter trend rally of wave 2

IM sure that MOST of YOU are well aware of what happens in wave 3
FEAR drives wave 3's on the DOWNSIDE, and it looks like that will
be the prominent psych this weekend into Monday

What fear, you ask, fear of refusing to raise the deficit limits, and thus defaulting
on US debt obligations around the world.
to make matters worse, they are supposed to be on a recess from the 18th to eom
which might be delayed if there are big problems to work out.

Jay

10am
Just as indicated, a higher open to 1317.46, somewhat less than the fibo would allow, and at 10am making a second attempt to get to 1320/21. 
WOW, 1319.99 HOW close can you get??
J - got to 1323 at 1pm

NOTE THE IMPACT STREAM above took  late dive
lets see if that translates to a lower close
J

THE TENDENCY of the EKG was correct , but I would have liked to see more volatility. HOLDING OUT FOR MONDAY
J 

Market Timing-Whats Next -April 14th NOON Report- WARNING !!

1pm Apr14th

THIS ACTUALLY HAS A BETTER 5WAVE look than 1309

THUS we can review the math again

WAVE 1 dropped from 1339 to 1309 = 36 pts
36 x 50% = 18 + 1303 = 1321
36x 62% = 22 + 1303 = 1325

CORRECTED < sorry,

When,? You ask.  Im STILL expecting that rebound peak tomrrow at open

Jay
1295 to 1300 could be considered that LINE IN THE SAND

WHATEVER is LOST on Monday April 18th,
will most likely gain back at least 50% by weeks end.
J 

Market Timing-Whats Next -April 14th AM update - GET READY !!

10am Apr 14th

39 hours at 10am hit the lows at about 9;50am

The above graph looks to me like 5 waves down to 1303 off 1321 at yesterdays open.

That Changes the price parameters a bit if we consider this wave 1 of the next degree.
which would now let us look for a wave 2 retracement into late today and tomrrow am

THIS PREMISE IS WRONG SEE NEWER UPDATE -J
1321-1303 = 14 pts
14 x 50% = 7 + 1303 = 1310
14 x 62% =9 + 1303 = 1312
both are just under the 50 day line as noted by Abdullah at 1314.
Coming back to fail that line on a kiss back attempt lends further credence to a further decline

Jay

Market Timing-Whats Next -April 14th Closing Report- GET READY !!

CORRECTED EKG - the one below was published with missing data

April14th @ 8:45am

Even tho the futures show a lower open, the energies indicate the mkt moving higher today

We mentioned and ABC - 3 legged rebound off the 1309 low

156bars hits AT OPEN, and it started near yesterday's close

Today calls for a see - saw day, but thats nothing new

Another fibo convergence day --24 & 21

Tomrrow shows a higher open probably on CPI data, then down the rest of the day.

THis weekend is the exact opposite of LAST wkend- last Friday, there was agreement
this wkend will be Agressive, heated arguments, probably about the debt ceiling.

By the Time Monday AM arrives, the WORLD will be shuddering over a possible
DEBT CRISIS, and this time its RIGHT HERE.

NO, it REALLY wont happen, because just like AIG, THE US GOVT is TOO BIG TOO FAIL
By the Time Tuesday comes around they will find a new perspective,
and the rebound will begin.

Jay

I REALIZE THAT I PUBLISHED AN INCORRECT EKG THIS AM

the ONE at the TOP of the page it CORRECT

Market Timing-Whats Next -April 13th WAVES

 

1339 high on 6th + 2 days = 1339 on 8th
consider that as a possible wv 2 label
took 2 days or 13 hours

1339 to 1309 Apr 12th
lets consider that as wave i of 3

which would mean we are in wave ii of 3
Next would be the SPIKE DIVE of wv iii of 3
on the 15th &  18th to 10am or 11am on the 19th for wv 3

wv 4 rebound to eom
wv 5 to mid May

Jay

Market Timing-Whats Next -April 13th Closing Report

April13th @8:30am

Ekg looks like one wild and crazy day

STILL LOOKING AT APRIL18-19 as the NEXT IMPORTANT LOW
another cycle that came to my attention shows another hi to lo from WAY BACK on April18th, 1930
Converging with 890 tr days from our recent top on Oct 10th, 2007

April 18th, IMO compares with Spt 15th, 2008 the day of a full moon at 3am, but more important
Lehman BK and stocks fell 550 pts

Jay
Its now 11am and we got exactly what the EKG ordered so far
Where is the buy short level?
Mathematically using fibo, we can look at 2 main levels
1339-1309 = 30 pts
30x 38.2% = 12 + 1309 = 1321, and we got there at the open
30X 50% = 15 + 1309 = 1324

tommrow seems to call for more of the same but possibly a lower open
dn - up -dn & high of day could occur at 2pm

Power Data shows Friday with a higher open, then lower for the rest of the day
cant confirm with the EKG until 8am on Friday.

Jay
4pm

EKG really COOL, capturing the day in advance
My thought is to short any time the SPX gets above 1321, and if it runs to 1328 Friday AM, even better
J

Market Timing-Whats Next -April 12th - Lunar Analyst

IT very interesting to see Spiral Cal's date UPSIDE DOWN
but Youve got to read it in Hebrew from Right to Left [gg]

anyway, looking at it this way DOES SHOW a DOWN TURN on the 11th and a LOW on the 15th
It also shows the 19th a a pivot turn which we discussed previously

I do agree, however with a HIGH on the 26th to 27th, so we are in accord with that projection

This is FROM someone who has been using lunar cycles for at least 20 years and swears by them.
And he has a paid subscription web site.

more later
Jay

Market OUTLOOK- revised for Apr11th to 22nd

April 12 @ noon

This reflects a combination of Energy and POWER DATA

April 11th should be considered the FIBO TURN in the 178 week low which culminates on April19th at 890 tr days.    890/5 = 178 weeks, a Stan Harley cycle - starting date Oct 10, 2007 TOP

The 14th  has a fibo convergence of 34 & 21 tr day cycles
34 on 13th from Feb24th
21 from Mar16

39hours @ 10am  & 156bars at open
expect a see saw day

Friday calls is for a friendly day , but decepitve
mis-communications & misunderstandings

Full moon this month on 17th seems to have some negative connotations

18th VERY STRONG NEGATIVE ENERGY
19th negativity continues & this is the CYCLE culmination of 890 tr days

I have found that a 40pts spx can be used as a rule of thumb,
and it is consistent in multiples also

for example
1343 - 1257 = 86 pts on closing
1340 recent high - 40 = 1300 and a break of that should get another 40 pts to 1260
Fibo math 94pts intraday x 1.618 = 152pts which is quite close to 160 , or 4 x 40 =160
which would find support for the spx at 1180 or near that level. 1340 - 160 = 1180

------------------                 -------------
4pm update
IF TOMRROW is ONLY A MARGINAL DECLINE LIKE TODAY, then the BULK of the initial drop could occur on the 14th and 15th, or only the 15th for this week.  This does nothing to change next week.

My original thinking incorporates the 14th open as a fibo converge low, and I still think it might happen that way, but the above is an alternate view.
Jay

Market Timing-Whats Next -April 12th Closing Report

April12th @ 8:30am

futures point to a lower open
European bourses off 1%
258 bars hits at open till 26hours at 10am
reading calls for a wall of resistance till mid day= noon hour
Neg energy till about 1pm

convergence of multiple cycles on Thsday AM
39hours
156bars
35 Feb 24th low
21 Mar16th low

Expect Thsday to recover to a higher open on Friday, and then head for lower ground thru Tuesday- April19th right after the full moon in similar fashion to Spt 17th, 2008 on the Lehman BK.

No way to tell what event will coincide with a strong sell off on 18& 19 unless its a threat NOT
to raise the debt level, but they have until May16th to make that vote.

AS previously mentioned , WE talked about further Earthquakes, Bigger Nuclear problems, and more revolutions, etc,  AND WE HAVE GOTTEN ALL THAT .

Full moon indicates a need to find a balance between demands and support of others
Doesn't that sound like a political game of chess??

Monday, April19th read
action meets frustrating obstacles from authority
expect disappointment

Apr 18th-Monday is also a 55 tr day lo to lo from Jan 28th, subtle, but its still there
888 Oct 10th, 2007 or = to 178 weeks a STAN HARLEY cycle time period
220 June7th, 2010 low @ 9816
377 from 10/19/2009 high


Tuesday Apr 19th calls for anger & aggression
try to stay focused

WEd Apr20- offers a reprieve = stabilizing day

Jay

EKG still at 80% accuracy
Hope your all getting something from the EKG
I really think they will find support at 1250-1260 on Thsday
If they take out 30 or more spx tomrrow, then that only leaves 
about 24 to get to 1260 or open to10am on Thsday
Jay
  

Market Timing-Whats Next -April 11th Closing Report

NEAR PERFECT TODAY with EKG published at 8am this morning

EKG also shows a DROP OFF tomrrow am- {not shown above}

Energy is consistently weak as well as the POWER Data which starts higher and drops off later

Activity index showed its strength on the 6th with a run up to 700 at about 2pm, and has been consistent under 200 since that day- Today is now at 200, but the advance extension is at 33

Dynamic data is the same as above-  WAS at a PEAK on Apr6th and has been dropping lower
ever since showing its lowest value today.

Bull Bear ratio is reported bearish at 3.65, higher than Oct2007

Jay

Market Timing-Whats Next - Historical tracking

 

Heres an interesting comparison which shows just how much trouble we are headed into-

On another chart
The Kondratief wave shows 2012 as the LOW of the K -WINTER
IT STARTED as of Jan 2000, and fell off the proverbial cliff in 2008-2009, and getting ready to make the rest of the trip into 2012, but it wont end there, as it can straggle along for months after the actual low which is scheduled for May or June of 2012. THATS a 70 year
cycle low from June of 1942.

 Jay

Market Timing-Whats Next -April Weekend Apr 9-10

NOW that we got that Govt Funding out of the way, we can now concentrate on stocks.

I wonder if  Pres Obama really gave anything away that he didnt know he was going to do.
Dems removed the Social connections for voting on then later- Haha.
Boehner all along said he was only interested in $$$ cuts. so he gave up nothing either.
And all along the Pres allowed republicans to take the lead.
AHH Politics - You can keep it, not for me!!!

As the chart above shows we see potential for various levels for SPX support on the correction
coming this week. BUT How will it play out, no matter what price level they dip to??

As anticipated April11th SHOULD take out he BULK of the decline this week

April-12th should open lower and recover some after an OPENING LOW AT 10am
where 26hours and 264 bars meet- Im using 258+6 @10am because the open is at 258 bars

April 13th ALSO calls for a WALL OF RESISTANCE till MID DAY where 30bars at noon
meets some mild neg energy during the noon hour.

That leaves the rest of the week mixed to blah as the FULL MOON on the 17th lend its support.
BUT the 18th is where the CYCLES converge

55 - Jan 28th low
604 Nov 21st, 2008
888 Oct 10, 2007
144 Spt 21-2010
220 june 7th, 2010 Low
377 Oct 10, 09 High

From there the mkt looks quite bullish till the 29th

Take a look at the TIME Symmetry of the mkt since Feb 18th high at 1344
FEB18th HIGH
March 16th LOW
April18th suspected LOW
theres a common 37 to 40 day cycle which fits in here
April 18= 40 tr days from 2/18 high
April 18th = 37 tr days from 2/24 low

DYNAMIC data it SHOWING an APRIL6th PEAK and has been on the decline since
SPX hit its recent peak at 39 hours @ OPEN n the 6th
& it was an 8 day TURN day
Jay

Market Timing-Whats Next -April 8th CLOSING

NOW we see the stock market does NOT Operate in a vacuum

Jay

Market Timing-Whats Next -April 8th update

IT LOOKS LIKE THEY ARE GOING TO KEEP US IN THE DARK TILL MIDNIGHT 

ONE SIDE SAYS IT CLOSE AND THE OTHER SAYS NO


They are SIMPLY POSTURING as we would expect politicians to behave.

No one wants to speak up prematurely and get blamed for a disaster-
Remember the ROMANS would KILL THE MESSENGERS if it was bad news.


THIS WAY when it goes the distance, they can stand there afterward and say IT WASNT MY FAULT.


more later
Jay
WHAT THIS MEANS TO WALL ST?

THE REACTION WILL BE ASSESSED ON MONDAY, and spill over Tuesday AM


I remember April 19th,1987, they were UP and DOWN hundreds of dow pts in one or 2 days, but I can't remember what was occurring then.
Also

Remember April 14th, 2000 was ONE HORRENDOUS stock market day, but I dont recall
what was occurring then either. SPX LOST 75 pts


The Psych read for April 17th's full moon
Find a balance between others needs, and their support- Conciliation, and Comprimise. hmm, sounds like a govt shut down will take all week to reconcile???
*******
I do KNOW that Neg energy was an influencing
factor on each above April dates as we see a similar potential for Monday.
Jay

Market Timing-Whats Next -April 8th Morning Report

April 8th @ 8am

POWER data was perfect as was the EKG yesterday
Power data indicated a sharp retreat in the am, and we got that at 11am.

Today's POWER DATA  indicates a drop off after open, which at 8am appears will open higher,

GOVT SHUT down, IMO, very likely as SOCIAL ISSUES that DEMOCRATS fought for many years
will NOT be allowed to be part of this Funding program

IF at noon today, Congress walks out without a budget refinance, IMO

more later

Jay

Market Timing-Whats Next -April 7th Morning Report

April8th at 8am

Apr7th @ 8:45am

Financial Challenges today
Neg energy at 10:09am
30bars at 10am
60b @ 12:30
90B @ 3pm

It appears to me that the Tea party memebers of congress have a hidden agenda,
{ actually not so hidden}  CUT the way we want or face shut down!!

The way they are proceeding under the guise of budget cuts reminds me of Wisconsin-
there is a hidden agenda not yet apparent.

MORE TENSION added today
WILL the FED now raise RATES??? sooner rather than later.

Activity index Yesterday jumped to a WHOPPING High at the 700 level, but has now dropped back to 100, and as  we see from the impact stream above, energy is waning. The Dynamic index is also on the decline from its highs on Monday.


More Later
Jay

Market Timing-Whats Next -April 6th Update

HELGE shows SHARP DROP from here to April11th
Jay

Market Timing-Whats Next -April 6th Morning Report

April 6th @ 7:45Am

There's NO DOUBT in my mind that a GOVT shutdown this week will coincide with a WALL ST -LEHMAN type PANIC such as we saw in Spt 2008, and will be viewed in a similar fashion as the US Govt's inability to pay its debt- true or not doesnt matter- when Panic strikes

Today as prev mentioned has some strength at 10:41am, but should hold its own till tomrrow when the first warning across the bow should be felt.

Impact stream above shows early strength, but loses it later as also indicated by the EKG

Jay

Market Timing-Whats Next -April 5th Closing Report

April5th @ 7:45am

This Morning opens with 126Bars thus we see a fall off expected at open according to the spx futures.
however,
Impact stream above seems to indicate that wont last very long as
there seems to be some hidden strength as yet unseen

Today calls for tending to practical matters, fwiw

Erik Hadik each year reminds us of disastrous events that have occurred in the past on April 19 & 20th, and we can go back many hundreds of years to recount said events, but this YEAR imo, will be different
WHY? you ask- ok, lets explore

IMO, April 11th has the NUTS AND BOLTS to offer something akin to disastrous, be it earthquakes, revolutions, sneak attacks, or even just a Govt shut down. 
NO one expects any of those things to happen, and why would a govt shut down effect wall st?? It didnt even blink in 1995.
However, IT does appear a Govt shut down WILL HAPPEN, and it might just be a catalyst to a one day crash on April 11th. or at least deemed to be the cause by the media. & How will that effect our esteemed Congressional leaders?

April 11th has the nuts & bolts to be SHAKEN
April18th has the Olive Pit to be Stirred
But April 19 to 25th has too much positive energy to fulfill Hadiks
annual debacle days, at least for this year.

Ive noticed that Many commentators on CNBC the last week & again today are QUITE positive for the outlook for stocks the rest of this year. - imo, thats quite bearish


more later
Jay

4pm
COULDNT ask for a better EKG this AM- STILL AT 80% Accuracy
GOVT SHUT DOWN IMMINENT- inevitable
 J

Market Timing-Whats Next -April 4th Closing Update

SUPPORT APPEARS to be WANING @ noon

Add caption

April4th @ 8:15am

Futures at 8am finding some support as also indicated above in both graphs
26hrs today at 10am could provide a high for the morning

Wed at 10:41am has some residual positive energy which might support this mkt a couple more days.

BUT there will be payback within April, thus Im still focused on the 11th & AM of the 12th
which should shows its fangs this week
The 12th is a FLASH turn also.

Jay