Monday, April 11, 2011

Market Timing-Whats Next -April 11th Closing Report

NEAR PERFECT TODAY with EKG published at 8am this morning
EKG also shows a DROP OFF tomrrow am- {not shown above}

Energy is consistently weak as well as the POWER Data which starts higher and drops off later

Activity index showed its strength on the 6th with a run up to 700 at about 2pm, and has been consistent under 200 since that day- Today is now at 200, but the advance extension is at 33

Dynamic data is the same as above-  WAS at a PEAK on Apr6th and has been dropping lower
ever since showing its lowest value today.

Bull Bear ratio is reported bearish at 3.65, higher than Oct2007



Sean said...

Jay, with all due respect. You've completely eliminated your near- apocalyptic crash warnings for both March and April. Now you're speaking about some nebulous Kondratief Winter catastophe "scheduled" for May or June.

The point is not that you were so off target; hell, all of us bears have been dead wrong. The point is that you offer no analysis as to why everything went from such certainty to silence. You run the risk of sounding more like those guys who run around with signs proclaiming daily, "The End is Near!"

When I read a free blog, I expect I'll get what I pay for. But if the point is to make us all better traders, I would think an analysis of where things went wrong would be helpful to us all.

Just one man's opinion.

rpccharts said...

Sean... tough to fight GOVT manipulation... this market should have tanked months ago.

John T. said...

I agree with the assesment that Sean put forward. Would like to see some explaination as to why certain claims/forecasts didn't work out.

Govt manipulation in the form of POMO/PPT is know by all. If this is not included in models/forecasts, then it's a HUGE oversight IMHO. In particular the March 18th-28th call by Jay and going into today (April 11th) should certainly have included this information. (which I suspect did, but his models showed a plunge anyway...)

Even the best forecasters miss. As long as they know WHY and can communicate the reasoning, that is what provides credibility to me...

Jeff said...

Sean provided "food for thought" in a respectful manner. The credibility of Jay's work requires a thoughtful answer

Jay Strauss said...

I agree with all of you
Im working on it

rpccpa said...

I think you do a great job overall... the dump is running nicely ... been short OIL since NY close yesterday.

Jay Strauss said...

MY BIG MISTAKE IS CLAIMING APRIL11th as a crash date rather than the START OF A CRASH to end on the 19th.

Yeh, I know what your thinking

I would be also

FULL MOON THIS SUNDAY is similar to Spt 17th 2008 full moon led to LEHMAN crash that Monday

ThE BIG SLIDE was SUPPOSED tostart on April 6th and end of April 11th.

the mkt topped on April 6th and has lingered until Apr11th TURN data
FLASH turn date also on 12th today

more on next update

Jay Strauss said...

weekend reports cover additional educational material which many of us lose track.

we need to be reminded on occasion just where we are in the overall cycle


Sean said...

Thank you, Jay, for your kind response.

I can assure you I read all of your material. What disturbed me most was your comment late last week that if nothing happened by April 11, you'd need to re-evaluate. Then I read on Sunday evening (with the futures up) the stuff about the Kondratief Winter in May or June (with no mention of the forecasted pending crash of April 11th, which had already been delayed from March). It's because I value your insights that I was trying to get you to take a breath and exhale a bit.

These are different days from anything we've ever experienced. The Fed doesn't even hide the fact it's manipulating the stock market (which is ILLEGAL!).

At any rate, thank you.