THE FUTURE

THE FUTURE
SCIENCE DOES IT BETTER

Saturday, April 23, 2011

Market Timing-Whats Next -April 21st- weekend report


IAN's LATEST comments on his blog state we are in for a BIG MOVE,
but He cant decide in which direction.

The above shows the latest SPX as a FAILED FIFTH, but the dow actually made a FIFTH
Fifth of WHAT ?
IMO, a 5th of a THIRD WAVE, BUT not a FINAL FIFTH OF FIVE
which as shown is due August 17th.

I have another chart that go back 7 years and show EACH correction,
WE are now over due for the next one,- its not my work, so I cant show it to you.

WHAT DOES THE MARKET HATE MOST??
******UNCERTAINTY*********
and the battle over raising the debt limit is 
STILL LOOMING LARGE. 

The LAST Correction April -May June of 2010 took out 210 pts from 1220 to 1010
percentage basis = 17 %
the flash crash came first from 1220 to 1065 =  155 pts =to 13%
IF
we get a similar reaction NOW thru May 27th, heres the math related to our current levels
1340 X 13% = 174 pts or = to spx 1166
1340 x 17% = 228 pts or = to spx 1112
this is only an attempt to get some perspective, so dont hold me to the exact numbers and or dates.

NOTE that each level above is near exactly 100 spx points above last years lows, not that it means anything at all.


 
This graph as shown above gives us a view of DAILY DIRECTION rather than WEEKLY
as I was trying to depict in the past.

Commentary,
We have YET to feel any effects of the upcoming battle in Congress over entitlements such as Medicare,Soc Sec & Medicaid. WE all pay for these things out of  EACH PAYCHECK, so it really
is not an economic argument, but like Wisconsin, it becomes JUST A POLITICAL football.

Many other state legislatures are also attempting back door legislation to curtail unions, and create
economic hardships which would also curtail the Democratic party, since each union member would have greater out of pocket expenses, thus cutting down on the available money to contribute.

Happy Easter to everyone who celebrates
Jay

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