"Whats NEXT"

As previously mentioned , we will take it week by week for the most part.
There are many sites and analysts who rant about what happened last week and how much $ they made;
BAhhh- Humbug Tell us WHATS NEXT, thats what traders want to read.

This week the best bet for a profitable trade seems to be on the SHORT side-
HOW and when?
IT's NOT going to be easy- IS IT EVER? , no, of course not.

Monday The MARKET should sell off . IT might NOT start off that way, but it would only give us an opp to add to our shorts.

Tuesday, HOWEVER has some positive influences that COULD provide a bounce- HOW HIGH? you ask- NO way to know. SO what should we DO? --- ACT defensive and take profits.
You can always get short again at the day's close.
I dont think we will see one soon, BUT WE dont want to get caught up in one to those 300 point rally days.
Tends to make us irritable and profitless.

NOTE
Just as the markets get overbot for long periods of time in a bull market run, they also get oversold and stay that way during extended corrections.
Thus the constant HIGH PC ratios

Im anticipating the BEST profits from MY short trade to occur on WED and Thursday till about 3PM.

Some are also projecting the week after as a continuation of the downtrend, but I HAVE SINCERE doubts about that.

The winner on the CNBC contest this week will probably be the person who lost the least $

More about next week, next weekend
All the best as always
Jay

About the AUTHOR

FOR FUTURE REFERENCE.

Frankly, my career with a major US corporation as an account executive the past 15 years has been a detriment to my ability to analyze and trade the market. I would always be in the wrong place at the wrong timeand could not accomplish the right trades. Well all that is now changing. I can now devote all my time to one endeavor. A former millionaire partner once told me I had 90%. He did not mean it as a compliment, but as far as the markets are concerned I will take 90% anytime.
My first stock purchase was sold to me by my insurance agent , also a broker. It promptly fell from $12.00 to $2.00. I consider that a good experience as it sent me on a crusade for knowledge. It was the 70's and enter Joe Granville, stage left. I learned what he had to offer as he was the only game in town at that time. Now there are hundreds of market timers. Most will tell you where the market has been,but not "WHATS NEXT".
They provide mountains of info and pages of charts - AAARG overload!! leaves you with nothing. just shows how smart they are.
HISTORY
ON FEb 23rd, I warned about a market slide coming on Tuesday FEb27th and so it happened-- the market fell 415pts. The week after I projected a rally into March 9th and we got just that. The week after I warned about weakness from 12th to 15th, and the dow fell on the 13th by 242pts. Now we posted information leading me to SHORT the close on Friday March 16th. Had expected for a rally on the 16th, but it fizzled out in the first 15 minutes. I STILL shorted the close and at this point waiting for Monday's slide.
As Always
Best wishes,
Jay

Right on Track today

There was a little high at 10:19 accompanied by a minor positive influence

Since there is a minor negative inlfuence at 11am and 90 bars at 11:30, I am anticipating a low at which time I will be adding to my long purchase at yesterday's close.

Its impossible to know influence above will have a greater impact.

Still intend to SELL the close today no matter what happens

Will provide WHATS NEXT on Sunday.
All the best
Jay

Tomorrow Morning

It will TICK me off to NO end if tomrrow opens down 100 pts;

However, I did BUY only a 1/2 long position

The reading for tomorow calls for EARLY ANXIETY with improvement during the day;

I will double up if we do get an early dip, and still short the close

Jay

Todays DIP on Greeny's big mouth occurred at 30 to 36 bars
Tomrrow has 90 bars at 11;30 if i count from 10:30 am today

Toying with us today- its noon

If there is going to be a sell off today, it will most likely occur in the last hour.

negative inlfuence at 352Pm
329 bars at 4pm
because WEd hit a low at FIBO 204-210 bars, then according to Stan Harley, we should expect the next cycle hit at 329.

Tommorw should OPEN with BANG + 100 pts and continue from there.

Im holding my breadth and waiting out the day. thursday that is.

I will be shorting the close tomorrow if my rally occurs as described.

All the best
Jay

Todays risk

today looks to have market risk of yesterdays intraday low to 11,940 or -193 pts.

Jay

STILL on Track for Friday

I love it when Maria gets so excited over a 50 pt rally. AHHG - throw up..

Market took a hit at the 204 to 210 bar cycle today at 12:30 to 1pm.
also got an AM hit at 10;30 at 180 bars
The BAR cycle RYTHM is the BEST tool Ive ever seen for DAY TRADERS- NOT my cup of tea.

IM HOPING im right about tomorow, because IVE held OFF buying and hoping to catch the PRE option expiration lows tomorrow. They want to SUCK in as many bears as they can to WRING them out to dry on Friday.

Hopefully that means a lower day tomrrow.
Got 259 bars at 10:30 AM
Got EITHER 60 bars at 3:30 or because they hit at 210 bars today, it could close the day at 329 bars at 4pm for the LOW. Wouldnt that be NICE to LOAD up on calls right at the worst level of the day at the CLOSE-

Gold and silver should enjoy a pop on Friday also, the XAU / gold ratio hit 5.00 yesterday- that deserves a pop also.
Best Wishes
Jay

BIG rally BREWING, but NOT today

Today's key times are as follows

negative influence of 180 bars at 10;30 AM
minor positive influence at 11:46 am
negative 204 bars at 12;30
Negative influence after market at 3:22pm

Im getting ready to BUY a POTENTIAL huge rally on FRIDAY, but Im going to wait till late Thursday as the electromagnetic energy levels remain high thru Thursday.

today, overall calls for a better day than yesterday- thats quite obvious- very rarely will we get 2 days like yesterday back to back.
CBOE- PC ratio quite high at 1.45 = bullish
OEX pc ratio = 1.38 also bullish
spx 500 pc ratio =2.18 ditto
Vix 18.23 = Ditto
SO, its just a matter of waiting for the wave count to complete its downside action.

best wishes
Jay
PS; I did warn you to take your profits yesterday on any shorts or puts that you might have bot on Friday.

Forget SPX 1407

We wont see spx 1407 again, not this week, and maybe not until 2009, but thats another story for another time.

Needless to say, I did not anticipate such a deep hit today. The ONLY clue I had for a dip today came from the electromagnetic energy level at 15.

Some one pointed out that today was 21 calendar days from FEb 20th.
Thats NOT something I usually track, but coming off a major 4 year TOP, I guess we can use that data.

THE NEXT level on that track would be 34 days and March 26th.

I THINK I will NOt prognosticate about DAILY action.
This week is moving LOWER, and should end in a rebound rally starting on Thrusday and completing on Friday.

Best Wishes
Jay

A DAY LATE

WOW, thats what I expected from Yesterday, but better late than never.

today has a negative influence at 2:36 accompanied with a 150 bar hit. Dont know how potent that 150 bar hit will be but that time zone should present a minor turn and recovery to some extent.

There is still the problem of 180 at 10:30 TOMORROW and could setup the open for a dip.

heres some numbers to watch.

The DOW gained 280 pts from the LOW of 12,050
50% retrace = 140 pts DOWN
60% retrace = 170 pts
Today should hold those numbers and we should STILL see a rally on Friday back to 1407.
It REALLY doesnt look like 1417 can be achieved.

The rebound forming an ELLIOTT wave FLAT at 1407 would confirm a VERY WEAK market.

The SLIDE should accelerate from March 19th to the 22nd, with only minor one day or half day bounces along the way. According to another anaylyst, the acceleration might continue to March 30th

I dont want to get TOO far ahead and lose sight of the more IMMEDIATE time zone-WE will take it
WEEK by WEEK.

Its 1:30 on Tuesday, and so far it looks like -140 will hold.
If you did buy puts on Friday, I would venture to guess they are PROFITABLE, but ONLY if you sell them.
best wishes
Jay

DIRECTION NOT CL:EAR

Thats what I wrote LAST WEEK, AND one thing still REMAINS CONSTANT
This week is looking like an interim roller coaster ride.
SELL THE RALLIES

THE GAME this week is to make it above 1407, and THEN attempt to get to 1417

Heres now it plays out.
LAST year the MARKETS and GOLD topped on MAY 10th
spx at 1325

Now lets do some math
WATCH THIS !
1460 - 1374= 86 pts
86 x 38.2% = 33 + 1374 = 1407
OR
86 X 50% = 43 + 1374 = 1417
eachtime it looks like 1407 will hold, so far it has failed
BTW- Today had a POSITIVE influence at 2:27pm and 90 bars at 4pm

NOW lets move on to more important timing.
Its took 63 hrs to go from Feb 20 to March 5 Top to bottom

The next leg a _rebound HIGH_ ocurred on March 9th = 78 hrs= 13 TRADE days

Now we are looking for the NEXT high to occur on the 18 cycle TRADE days= March 16th.

Heres what I see
Mar 9 + 13 = March 28
Mar 9 + 18 = April 4th
both have influences that SHOULD occur with market lows.

April 16th is 13 days from March 28th and has another set of hard influences that should continue to see markets declining.
April 23rd is 18 days from March 28th and could provide a short terrm rebound high as the energy influences that day are somewhat positive as are the preceding 5 days.


THIS IS REALLY FASCINATING
MAY 10TH - 2007 is 55/56 days from FEB 20
AND
13 TRADE days from April 23rd
THATS WHERE I THINK the BOTTOM will occur.

How about PRICE LEVELS, you ask?
OK, lets explore.

WE got 86 spx pts hair cut and a 33 pt rebound
Lets use 1407 for now to do the math.

1407 - 86 pts = 1325

WATCH THIS !! whats 1325, THATS RIGHT -the 2006 HIGH
WATCH THIS AGAIN. MAY 10 = the 2006 HIGH

IF those levels are taken out on April 16th, then we will have to redo the math.

Something I am forgetting, will write it once I remember- could not have been too important
I wud rite in sht hnd lik da chief, but I hate reading it.
best wishes
Jay

CYCLES and observations

Next week has NO clear direction until March 16th

On March 16th.
Harmonic cluster of positive influences
18 day high to high cycle progression

the NEXT 13 day progression from yesterday is March 28th= 78 hours- SHOULD BE A LOW

According to one analyst the Seasonal DOW CYCLE in BUY October 16th and SELL April20

OBVIOUSLY - from year to year those dates can vary. This YR it looks like FEB 20.

The Bradley March 10th date matches my 13 day cycle high of March 9th.

March 20 is the next Bradley date, and MY projection for march 16th is close enuf.

April 20 is the Next Bradley date, and on Most charts it is shown as a high- BUT MAY NOT end up as teh high of 2007, we might have alrady seen that on Feb 20th.
Someone also pointed out FEB23rd as a ARMSTRONG 8.6yr cycle CHANGE.

Heres the JAYWIZ date progression;
March 9th high
March 16th high, maybe higher or NOT- who cares get short by the close
March 28 = a LOW = 13 trade days after March 9th
April has MANY turn dates, and is NOT quite clear until we get a little closer to the month, but for all intensive purposes, these dates should work out quite well.
April 4th= A LOW = 18 trade days after March 9th.
April 11 high -
april 16th an IMPORTANT LOW also 55 calendar days after FEB20.
April 20th rebound
May 20 does look like the NEXT most important date, should be a Low.

I was doing some GANN geometric squares last year off the May10th HIGH, but gave up after a while.
best wishes,
Jay

Im OUT

just as SCRIPTED
Im NOW OUt, and will sit on the side till next Friday where at the present time, Im expecting to buy the QiD

Sure, they just might close at the earlier high, but my gut wont let me wait till 4pm.

Remember what I previously wrote
Robbin- Thanks for the reminder
GET DEFENSIVE
Sell the Rallies
Hope I can follow my own advice

YES- I sold the rallies.

They Got UP about 70 pts where the 38.2% FIBO retrace level, and IT looks like trouble from here.
Secondary rally took it Up 32pts at 10:50 where there was a positive influence.


If you want to SCALP a little on Monday's weakness, you could buy puts at today's close.
In this case, IF you did that, you would most likely want to cash out at Monday's close
The OUtlook for Monday calls for a SOBERING day. Just exactly what that means?? WE won't know until Monday, and it could effect everyone a little differently. BUT at least you can smile about your trade.

Have a great weekend
Jay

Fantasy becomes REALITY

I'll bet you were all holding your breath this morning at 8:30
WHERE NOW? you ask.
Fibo levels

DOW lost 736 pts Feb 20 to mar5th.
Close yesterday was 12,261
38% retrace = 12,333
The difference =72 pts
If they get above that and HOLD , then the next level is 50% = 12,418
that would give us a rally today of 157 pts at the close.

As I mentioned b4, MY decision to CASH OUT would be dependent on the OPEN today, and IT looks like I will probably go the distance.

There is a 259 bar hit at 3pm today, and that might slow them down from about 2pm to 3pm.
But the close should be a happy one.
There is also a 204 bar hit at 11:30 which might or might NOT have much impact.

I dont know IF I have the GUTS to hold out for the close, so I will probably sell 50% of my position earlier.
Exactly when?? WHO KNOWS?? Maybe after the first 10 minutes as I previously mentioned, IF they DO get up that 100+ pts.

Best wishes
Jay

Gap and Fill

Looks like the Close filled the GAP open.

Sometimes the readings get mixed- in other words, Thursday' reading becomes Friday's action and vice versa.

Tomorrow, as mentioned b4 is 13 days/ 78 hours ,and some of you know about Stan Harley cycles.
Thats from FEb 20th a HIGH to HIGH.

There are a number of other positive forces indicating tomorrow "COULD" be
the BIG UP DAY

Employ report comes out at ?? 8:30am
Could provide a trigger?
HOWEVER<>
The NEWS MEDIA groups only provide OUR HUMAN Curiosity with a REASON.
WE wll want to know WHY !! They are all to happy to oblige.

As for NEXT week, the DECK is stacked AGAINST the market, so it has to make numbers NOW.

Best wishes
Jay
PS; Keep the emails coming, I love to hear from all of you.
Maybe we can get Obama some investment help

Europe and Asia TELL ALL

Just as indicated earlier this week, we WILL GEt our Thursday rally.

There is a 180 bar hit at 4pm. That should only impact the closing, but I doubt it will be detrimental.

If you BOT in last Friday or Monday, your probably wondering WHEN to CASH OUT. ME TOO !

There is a STRONG POSITIVE influence at 9am Friday, which should spill over to stocks at the open and at least for the first 15 to 30 minutes.

HOWEVER, If an initial SPURT<> runs the dow up big (+100 ) in the first 5 minutes, THAT for me is my CASH OUT signal.

IF Thursday closes UP BIG and Friday opens as described, They will probably sell down mid day and might even close higher, BUT I really won't care at that point. Im NOT going to try to SQUEEZE the LAST penny out of it.

Most of next week LOOKS CRAPPY for trading, so I will be looking for a place to buy the QiD, which will most likely wait till Friday March 16th, where It's possible they will get a another surge.

best wishes
Jay

Dozens of Emails

Thanks for ALL your EMAILS
helps me to understand who my audience is.

Almost Everyone seems to be benefitting, and that WORKS for ME too.

One of the NEXT 2 days has got a huge rally setup to go.
If not Tomrrow, then Friday for sure.

CBOE @ 1.16 + OEX @2.20 & spx 500PC @2.11 ratios still BULLISH.
Internal tech data has settled down to more normal levels, and any big rally will make the markets OVEBOT very quickly.
best wishes
Jay

On COURSE

I cant tell where the 259 hit yesterday, and will have to wait to see how WED develops.

It looks like it hit at 11am, but thats only 222 bars- not out of the question, but not anywhere near 2pm.

However, the market did make a steady rise after 11am.
Today, as indicated , looks like a sloppy start, but should recover and probably end flat to lower.
AS I mentioned, NOTHING SERIOUS
60 bars is supposed to hit at 12:30
90 bars at 3pm
I'll be watching for those times to be confirmed or not.

Thursday, however, promises to be a very bullish day.
Friday is 13 trade days (78 hours) from FEb 20th- high to high

Please send me an email if Ive been helpful to your trading endevours. I dont know if this blog is being viewed by traders or investors, so do let me know. THANKS,

Jay

Blue Monday & Tuesday Turnaround

As anticipated, we aer getting a rebound today

My lower start was ignored and the dow blasted off to +100 in the first few minutes.

Now we are getting the softness OF the 259 bar cycle hitting at 2pm.

Should close strong today.-
There might be some selling pressure tomorrow, but nothing such as last week.

Mercury does start to move Direct late on the 7th, and that might coincide with a bigger rally on Thursday.

If we do get the HUGE rally on Thursday as expected, then Friday AM should top it off.
best wishes
Jay

Technical Rally coming

And its GOING to be a one day WHOPPER,and it could even set a new record.
Once that occurs, It offsets the 1450 on the daily day arms index, and brings the Average into more normal levels.

Tomrrow should open a little lower and keep the pressure on till after 2pm, then we should get a nice close.

I dont agree with Charts Edge for WEd, but it still doesnt look like a positive day, so it could be as bad as they show it.

Thursday and Friday promise to bring smiles back to the bull camp, but its NOT long lasting.

GET DEFENSIVE
Sell the rallies
Hope, I can remember my own advice.

Best wishes
Jay

PROOF READ

Sorry about that 1am- I really do have to spend more time proof reading. I was rushed this AM.

After another SHARP down open, we are getting some volitile action intraday.

Take a look at www.chartsedge.com

I agree with that scenario for this week.

Today should close flat to a little lower as 204 bars hits at 3pm.
Tomorrow's intrday low or trigger to go higher should occur at about NOON where 259 bar cycle hits.

I did most of my buying last week, so Im sitting on the bench and watching the action.

To get the MOST of this weeks trades, Im thinking about trading OUT late Thursday or late Friday.
Planning of buy back in on the 13th, and MUST be SOLD out ont he 16th, getting ready to get SHORT from there till April4th.
Almost forgot: Gold/XAU ratio hit 4.92- also CNBC talking about HOW bad gold has gotten as an investment, but the guest speaker says there is a build up of short sales. Looks to me like gold mining shares could particiapte in the rally next 10 days.
Best wishes
Jay

FIRST SHOT Across the BOW

8:30 AM Monday March 5th
Todays Geomagnetic energy is an 8 coinciding with what looks like a down day.
Consider the last 10 days to be the first shot across the bow.
what's that mean?

Get DEFENSIVE this year, and dont expect the market to fly into the stratosphere.
We are 5 years from the 0ctober 2002 low and the 4year cycle seems to topped on Feb 20th.
And we can forget about global warming for a while. Earths NATURAL temp cycle seems to be coinciding with market cycles.

What about TODAY?
good question
Looks like we should expect today to start off DOWN- thats obvious given the SPOOS futures. Laso looks like a down Monday till at least 1am, they should start to make a recovery, and it also loooks like it could be a typical Tuesday turn around.

Still looking for a short term rebound to carry through the 16th.

Jay

WAS Friday a BUY?

If youve been reading me all week, you would have gotten the picture that I bot LONG into Friday's close.

Actually I was SCALE trading all day long as there was NO way I would have forseen the ACTUAL closing LOW at 4pm. I do NOT own a crystal ball, although it may seem that way to some of you at times, and other times it does get somewhat confusing.
Funny, The times that most people get confused, it seems that I am most clear, and vise-versa.HMM.

However, It became OBVIOUS to me onWednesday that the LOW of Tuesday would be matched if not beaten.

Whats NEXT ? you ask. great question, thanks for asking

Since Ive told you that I bot LONG, I guess I am expecting the market to rally.
Internal Technicals are SCREAMING BUY
Arms index 5 day ave is now at 406.2 - WOW unreal oversold
Arms index 5 day trin = 203.1 - WOW unreal oversold
Arms inex 10 day trin = 2552 Ditto
CBOE PC ratio = 1.30 today and was 1.42 on Thurs + 1.70 on Tues= THIS ADDS up to MAJOR OVERSOLD
OEX PC ratio today was 1.22
SPX 500 pc ratio = 2.55
THESE RATIOS CANNOT BE IGNORED.
They are outright BULLISH

The ECLIPSE and LOW tide effects are OVER.
Im expecting the market to rally into Mar9th.
Off some on March 12/13
Continue rebound into 16th
Ive posted future dates b4.
Best wishes
Jay

YOU Cant Deny what you CANT SEE

You Can't see AIR, but you breathe it
Electricity, same deal,
Cell phone, radio, electron, waves- same deal

Today so far the ARCANE is WINNING
Heres what I mean.

Magnetronetic level = 5 = mild
Tuesday was a 15, and we all know what happened.
TODAY so far its 11am,,
Open was - 50pts with a Lunar aspect w Mercury
60 bars hit at 10:30 dow dipped again to -32
10:54 market rose on another Mercury/ Lunar aspect
Whats NEXT ?
90 bars -NEXT LOW point SHOULD be at 1pm
2pm should be a high
126 bars hits at the close- COULD be the LOW of the day<>

Jay

Trigger points

Sometimes that 259 bar cycle hit shows up as a market ACCELERATION

And that can occur in either direction
I have mentioned this b4

TODAY's NOON hour and 259 bar cycle seems to have been a trigger point to go lower.

Helps to pinpoint Tomrrows low, maybe

Im suggesting the INTRADAY low should occur TOMRROW at 60 bars between 10:30 to 11am.

The day does end on 126 bars and could possibly close lower.

Im SCALE trading since I cant be sure of catching the absolute LOW.
SCALE trading, in case you've never heard of it means buying as the market drops lower.

Jay

Capitulation or NOT

Early plunge did seem to TEST the previous low

11am

Will NOON bring in a retest low failure??
In other words, WILL it be SAFE To BUY??

Answer is really YOUR own analysis.
My guess is "OK to NIBBLE"

Will tomorrow sell off again??
Answer :Possibly

As YOu can seee I have NO crystal ball, but I did disclose the psychology of the day.

Jay

NOT so fast

Its 8am March 1st- Im posting this early to catch the early bird.
Dont be in a rush to BUY today

Im going to bypass that NOON hour buy and hold off till Friday's CLOSE

THis Full MOON Eclipse seems to have more to do with Tuesday's decline than I previously thought.

I hope Im not offending anyone by talking about full moons, but we ALL know there is a correlation to human behavior during such events; Princess Diana died the day on such an event.

I find it Fascinating the CNBC is starting their Million dollar contest on March 5th. Just coincidence of course.

Still thinking about GOLD mining shares- most rebounded quite well yesterday, but we'll see what they do ALSO by Friday's close.

Remember last year , both Equities and GOLD reached their peaks simultaneously on May 10th.

This year it could be March 16th-- OH those IDES of MARCh keep haunting us 2000 years later.

Best wishes
Jay

RISK verses REWARD

So whats the risk tomrrow and or Friday?
150 pts down to the 12,116 intraday low of the 27th.
with LOW volume the dow should never get there.

The effects of the 27th will end pretty much as a one day event. FOR NOW.

The Techncals are way way way OVERSOLD and screaming BUY
The only thing holding them back is the WAVE count needs to be completed.

The question becomes when to BUY
Ive posted NOON a few times and that still looks optimum

Buy in stages or all at once? thats a tough question.
With MINIMAL risk, however, the reward should be OK- either way.
Im guessing the spx wants to make it to at least the old high at 1525, and that would take the dow to 13K.
My date for that event is March 16th., which is also a SOLAR Eclipse- also can be a high energy event.

CHris Carolyn has been using the lunar events for years and is a very sucessful analyst.

Full moon Eclipse (this wkend) are usually energizing events and I would venture to guess Friday could be a fairly strong day. The 1st and 2nd days of a new month do tend to be strong UP days.

Im using the QLD to buy the market long- ITS a 2X ETF and has some very good percentage gains.
It is also quite liquid. & Orders get executed immediately if placed at market.

Best wishes and thanks for visiting
I hope you are getting some value from this blog.
Jay

What NOW brown COW ?

The Internals are SCREAMING BUY just as one wouldd expect and we are getting a little lift so far today and its now NOON on THE DAY AFTER-
Arms daily index was a WHOPPING 14.90
5 day arms = 382.4
5 day trin = 19.12
10 day trin = 236.2
THESE are HUGE BUY SIGNALS

What did all that noise MEAN anyway?
CONSIDER yesterday A HARBINGER of things to come, but NOT RIGHT NOW.

Im still on a BUY for tomorrow at NOON, and PATIENTLY waiting it out.

Jay

Hooray for Greeny, & ME TOO

As I have been saying for the past week, look out for Feb 27th !!

On track for a low today, slop around tomorrow, AND gettting ready to BUY on MARCH 1st.

204 bars hits at 3pm on WED along with an 18 day HIGH to LOW cycle from FEB1st.

259 bars hits at noon on Thursday and the market should LIFT OFF from there to March 9th

A little SELL OFF could occur on the 12th and part of the 13th, but there is still another high waiting in the wings after that- ending on March 16th.

I dont want to get to far ahead, but heres some dates to watch.
March 16 HIGH
April4th LOW
April 20 HIGH
NOTE OF CAUTION -IN between April 4th and 20 could be very choppy- Its the kind of market that chews up both bulls and bears
Remind of this statement when we get there- THANKS in advance
April 20 to May 20th stands a better chance of a bigger correction time period.

Jay

AS EXPECTED

Today went well

Just as the 11 am and 259 bar cycle hit, our old friend Greeny spoke up.
Irrational exhuberance --BAH Humbug!!

The actual low of the day hit at about 30 bars in the new cycle at 1PM

Tommorw should be the climactic sell off PLUS provide WED with a hangover headache as it tries to recover.
204 bars hits at 3pm along with an 18 day cycle HIGH TO LOW from FEb 1st.

The BUY trigger should come at noon on Thursday when 259 bars passes by.

I know there are always going to be those who predict the end of the world is coming
But the power is in Jupiter and Saturn cycle as it has been for about 2 years now, and there is more juice left in the bottle.

Kondrateif wave indicates we are in the Autumn season of the wave, and the BIG DIP "WINTER "doesnt appear till 2010.

Jay

just as prescribed

Friday did follow Almost the same deal as Thursday

LOOK at those PC ratios SCREAMING BUY
BUT NOT JUST YET , says the market.

Monday SHOULD OPEN fairly strong, but give it up after 1pm
Tuesday should take a good hit
Wed needs time to recover from Tuesday
Wed is 18 days from the Feb 1st high to LOW cycle and 3pm = 204 bars.

Could struggle a bit till Merc turns DIRECT on7th, and could blast off from there.

Gold might have more to go- tends to CHANGE trends around the lunar events and next month we have eclipses on 3rd and 16th.

Both equities and gold did hit peaks in May 2006 just b4 the full moon on May 13th and NEXT MONTH could be a repeat.
Jay

Deals the same hand tomorrow

looks like tomorrow should do just about the same thing as today.

There are some lunar squares mid day with 204 bars hitting at 1:30 to 2pm

From there they could recover
The NASDAQ is holding up much better then the Dow.

Carl had mentioned 1845 for the nasdaq

Spx has a ways to go toget to 1470- I dont think they can do it, but the PC ratios are still too high and that means they are bullish.

We have opposing forces limiting the run in either direction.

Next week looks like a rebound high point at 1pm on Monday, and thne they should tumble on Tuesday

Intraday update

90 bars hit at 11:30 - the dow was off 88,
Isnt it funny how IRAN news comes out just as the 90 bar cycle takes effect.
the NASDAQ off only 9
NDX off 6
Neither one matched the depth of the dow low.

The next important time zone should be 2:32 where there is a lunar urnaus sextile
and there is nothing now to stop the close from a full recovery.

PC ratios still indicating pessimism to keep this afloat

But the trading atmosphere should show some more severe changes tomorrow with NO recovery
at the end of the day.

Carl and Ethan both indicating a short term top on gold, and I agree.
SOLD all my gold mining shares today, and will look to buy them back around May4th.
Gold should settle back to the 550 level, but thats only a guess based on what ive read from other analysts.
Jay

struggle

Last 2 days have been a struggle

The PC ratios are still much too high for a serious sell off

Merlin shows UP all week

Astro indicates a high Thursday as the SUn/ Merc conjunction hits late on 22nd

Might NOt start a serious decline until after 1pm on the 26th, but Friday Feb 23 could start some selling.

I mentioned the Bradley indiator last week and posted March 15th, when IT should have been FEB 15th, NOW looks LIKE IT WAS Feb 12th, and next big date from what Im reading from various sources are calling FEB 23 and or 26th IMPORTANT cycle convergences.

Carl still looking for SPX 1470

Jay

No CHANGES

I dont expect anything to change from now till Next Friday on what Ive already written.

A Sun conj Merc is often found near market highs and next week is on the 22nd at midnite.

Today is starting sloppy and has a minor lunar aspect at 10;15 along with 106 bars

The day closes with 174 bars which is NOT 180 ,but might be close enuf, and since the market is CLOSED Monday, will not feel the full effects from the Venus Pluto Square.

So we should see a somewhat weak day , but nothing to make money on is you want to go short, but If yor looking to buy, the 4pm time zone might provide the best opp

Jay

I really blew that one

I misread my signals no excuse tho- I blew it;

So- whats next?/
PC ratios still TOO high for sell off and pesimism continues to FUEL the rally.
Bradley date of March 15th now looks like it HIT on the 12th.
Ian's date of 14th at 10 am hit along with 204 bars and we all watched the Bernanke rally.

Still expecting a soft open lasting till about noon on Thursday

Rally from there should carry to either 1pm or 3pm on Friday-- BUT- 259 bars at 2pm could start a downtrend.

Monday under the spell of a venus Square pluto and should markdown some of last week's gains.

AFTER MONDAY -- Expect the markets to SURGE higher ALL next week

Gold should also move up with stocks and that should be good for mining shares.
Jay

RALLY- just as indicated

WE got the OBLIGATORY 100 dow points today.
Not a new high for spx nor dow

PC ratios could be indicating some selling tomorrow along with the
readings im getting .

Merc goes RETRO at midnight tonight and that event is usually good for a swift change of direction.
Im counting 13.3 days to Thrusday's low from Jan 26th.

If Im right, the LOW should occur on Thursday at NOON to 1pm.

From there a rally should move the market up thru Friday's close

Monday FEb 19th could also be a KNOCK down day, but the rest of the week should be up days.

IF's and Maybe's

If you came to watch paint dry, then you were in the right place today.
The PROBLEM- I have readings for Monday and Tuesday that appear to be in reversed order.
Mon = $ improves- then - Tues = Stagnent - so flip them around since today was Stagnent.

I now must respect Charts Edge graph for a quick dip Tuesday by 10 AM, and IMPROVING during the day -Tuesday.
The bar count has not been as exact as prior experiences and today hit a low at 2:30 which I counted as 102 bars, thus tomorrow at 10 am counts as 126 bars, and could set the low of the day.

SIDE NOTE -My curser has never frozen as many times as it has today???

WEd should start DOWN as 204 bars hits at 10am.
MKT Could linger most of the day until getting past 259 bars at 2:30

Jay

Astro wins out

Today was marked by a SUN opposition to Saturn occuring tomorrow.

A Similar effect that occured on Jna25th that had a Saturday mars Sesquadrate to Saturn

Fascinating also that today's drop off hit at 259 bars and the 3pm low hit at 30 bars in the NEXT 259 bar cycle.

There is a 60 bar hit on Monday at 11am along with a Lunar square to Venus, the money & love planet.
IT also looked like the decline so far encompassed 4 waves leaving an openning for wave 5, but that might be muted to about 20pts matching today's low.

IF all that happens as described above, then we SHOULD see a nice rally day.

Jay

259 BARS

259 bars hit at 12:30 today and so did the start of a plunge, maybe 100+ pts by the close

I dont expect anything dramatic this month as far as declines

Will have to wait till after March 16th

Jay

Getting READY to SLIDE

The MARKET is following the Bradley chart with amazing accuracy so far this yr.
However, it looks like it will DIVERGE on March 16th to April 20

Im expecting a turn HERE today , Feb 7th at 2pm and a slide into Feb 15th.

From there they should run up to new highs again on March 16th.

Jay

EUPHORIA ABOUNDS

Bradley psychology indicator shows a high on Feb 4th and a low on Feb15th

The EUPHORIA on CNBC yesterday was obvious.

Full moon last night as previously mentioned might cycle out a short term high as well.

Still got more highs to go afterward thru March 16th.
How much higher will depend on how much technical damdage is done in the next 2 weeks.

Jay

BEARISH SENTIMENT

The bearish sentiment is beginning to wane.
The higher the indexes, the more BULLISH the market, as it feeds off the bearish sentiment.
Monday's PC ratios were cboe .96 - spx500 -2.44 -oex - 1.19
Tuesday ----------------------------------.93 ------------ 2.63 --------- 1.59
WEd ---------------------------------------.77 -------------- 1.67 ---------1.16
Thurs At 10am -----------------------.65 --------------- .91 -----------1.30
The SPX 500 tells the story
Today at 11 AM marks the 78 HOUR cycle that STILL appears to be in control on a HIGH to HIGH from Jan 12th at 4pm.
Tomorrow marks an 16 to 18 day low to Low cycle from Jan 5 to 9
Still expecting higher highs to run up to March 16th

Jay

MARKING TIME

Today is holding up better than I would have expected, but it only means the inevitable dip is delayed.

Instead of Jan 31st, we might have to look for FEb 1st , just b4 the full moon, or FEb 2nd just after.

Today marks 68-70 hrs at 1:30 and 3:30 from the Jan 12th HIGH, and we would expect the market to PEAK at those junctures, and so far the actual high was at 11:15 which was the 135 bar mark. 90 + 45= 135.
The high 12,538 at 11:15 was a near match to Mondays intraday high at 12,540 level.

180 bars today at 3pm , SHOULD see a marked decline at that point in time.

Fed announcement at 2:15 tomorrow is at 259 bars, and might be the trigger for the decline??

Jay

Keep IT SIMPLE

Ive been much to wordy lateley, so I'll try to cut down ont he excess.

spx 1440= short term stop
spx 1400= could be short term low on 31st

FEB 9th could be a troublesome date, but look for Next high on FEB 12/13
14th and 15th could be off days

Feb 23rd is pegged as an BIZ cycle ARMSTRONG 8.6 yr cycle TURN
could make the end of the month sloppy

March 16th seems to be offering up the best date for a 2007 TOP
SPX might try for 1525, the old high

Jay

RIGHT ON QUE at 1pm

RIGHT on Que
low today within few minutes of 1pm.

took out 190 pts from the high to the intraday low today at 12,431
If your feeling sluggish this wkend, your energy should return on Monday, but what does that mean for the market?Just as today, Monday looks like a mixed bag. BUT it most likely will be in reverse order- higher in the AM and lower in the PM. An early morning TECHNICAL rebound could carry the DOW up 72 to 95 pts.

Monday Lows should occur at either 1pm or 2pm,
but I doubt they will be lower than today at that point in time.
HOWEVER, if they ARE lower, OR, IF those lows FAIL to hold, then we can expect the market to continue to sell off into WED, which is what I am expecting anyway. It is possible that 2pm time period MIGHT behave as did 1pm on Thursday, just a short term stop, and sharp drop off within a few minutes later.

Fascinating to look back one year, and see the Jan LOW of 2006 on the 24th. The month then ended on a HIGH;
Also note that FEB 2006, moved LOWER to the 13th, AND This yr I am seeing just the opposite.

Tuesday low is due at 4pm, and Wed low should occur at 3pm.
Jay

ITS a STRUGGLE at 11am

This BLOG is NOT updating until some time after I publish an update.

The market rythm called for a LOW at 3pm yesterday and we got exactly that.
However, Friday AM fell some more and so far at 10:10am hit -48 which is no where in terms of aformentioned rythm.
The next RYHTM point is due at 1pm- Look back at Tuesday and that same Rythm point produced a low from which the market ran up 150 pts. Can that happen today?
I tend to doubt it- the BOND market is FALLING, and Equities are in a battle to stay afloat.

Helge has indicated Jan 26th as a PEAK. One of my other associates has indicated Monday as a 2X Master time date. Those MTD's have frequently been found at market highs.

The spx 1440 appears as a formidable RESISTENCE level.

In summary, we could make a projection that;
If the market rebounds from 1pm, then we should see a strong Monday, at least for the morning.
The 78 hour cycle hits on Jan 31st at 3pm, along with a 259 Rythm hit, and its looking like it should provide a LOW.

Jay

SPX 1440

Cant say for sure, no one can, but yesterdays 120 pt decline was a little more than I would have anticipated.

So, it might be the first clink in the bull armor, warning us to be on our toes, and maybe even somewhat defensive. Now 49 months in the current bull run and its NOW January which has typically sold off at the end of the month last few yrs, and this one appears ready to do the same thing.

Its Friday- before the open and spoos are staying alfoat. Dow futures indicating a higher open. As I wrote b4, Im looking for a rally this AM<>

Monday should provide a rally in the AM and again a softenning or even some selling in the afternoon followed by more selling on Tuesday and WEd leading to a low at the 78 hr cycle due at 3pm coincinding with 259 bars at the same time.

SPX 1440 seems to be a formidable barrier for now.
FEb, for the most part does look like it should recover.

Jay

Market heart beat

REVUE- and just as projected the market is performing on QUE.
This is mostly a repeat of what Ive already posted

Monday - lows ocurred at
11am = 180 bars
1pm = 204 bars
The jupiter/Uranus Square at 5pm indicated a DOWN day.

Tuesday- 259 bars was hit at 11am, and it was UP from there thru Wed at the close.

Today, Thursday
180 bars at 1pm so far looking good for possible low for the day.
204 bars at 3pm - might also have some effect.
A late recovery today should lead to a strong open Friday and rally till about mid day.

Friday should get weak late in the day leading to selling on Monday and probably Tuesday.
Best wishes and good trading
Jay

The BIG Guns

The BIG guns leading this market higher are ;

Feb 28th = Saturn opposite neptune
NOTE : I am NOT an astrologer, but I am not afraid to use Astro when it applies as it did today with jupiter Squaring Uranus at 4pm.

Even MORE important are the Eclipses in March on the 3rd and 19th combined with a Jupiter TRINE Saturn on the 16th. Dont forget the Spring Equinox on the 21st.

today HIT a Low right at 180 bars at 11am, and 2 hrs later at the FIBO 204 bars at 1pm.
IT was STILL disappointing to get such a meager decline. Some stocks like CSCO, and MSFT did experience more dramatic hits last week, but overall the averages stayed the course.

Tomorrow hits 60 bars at the close, but there is a lunar/ Mars Square at 2:27 pm, and that MIGHT provide a good buying point.

Once again, just to be clear WEd and Thursday look like they should move UP strongly.
If they gain 100 pts per day, then the dow should get to 12,700 area, with the SPX at 1450.

It is POSSIBLE the SPX might get to its PREVIOUS high at 1525 before this run is over, and March 16th is looking like the most likely date.

Jay

MY FAITH RESTORED

With all the cards stacked up against a decline, we got it anyway.
Astro is the ONLY force today that seems to be effecting trading, and its DOWN as anticipated.

What about the rest of the week and January? glad you asked.

A low CLOSE should be set today, and as far as tomorrow, there appears to be NO RUSH to get things moving.

WED, however calls for ACTION and good follow thru for Thursday. So we should see 2 good solid rally days in the middle of the week.

For Friday, I am looking for an early HIGH and weakness later with another dip into the 27th/and maybe even the 28th.

259 bars hits on Tuesday at 11am and ends the day on 60 bars.
Jay

TOO MANY BEARS

OEX pc RATIO is much TOOOO HIGH
spx 500 pc ratio also too high

That means TOO many people are betting on the decline and we all know that goes against the grain.

180 bars hits at 11am on Monday just after a venus sun opposition.
240 bars hits at 4pm with another hard aspect

IF, and I reapeat IF we get a decline, IT might overlap Tuesday am till 259 bars at 11am, but I tend to doubt it at this point.

Jay

TOO MANY BEARS

The PC ratios are JUST TOO darn BEARISH.

Unless some miracle happens on Monday, the downside poses little risk for the bulls.

Very disappointing to the bears for sure.

Jan 15 was the first 2007 bradley date and it looked like a high, but this week, even with over-powering negative electro and magnetic energy levels, the market has held TOO WELL.

The next Bradley date is FEB 4th, which would translate to either the 5th or IMO the 1st for a possible low point, but would venture to guess it will be a HIGHER low.

So we have to sit all weekend and wait the outcome for Monday to see if our bearish position will make any $.
Jay

slow progress

some slight changes but the outcome is the same.

Slow Tuesday- so far its 2pm- might sell off more in the last hr as 180 bars hits at 4pm.

Wed should pick up some steam downward till noon.

Thursday might just float on Wednesday's rebound.

Its possible that FRIDAY might sell off strongly -AFTER the NEW MOON.

That leaves Monday with some strong follow thru as another BIG down day
It has the astro potential in addition to 259 bars at 4pm.

The Jan 2000 sell off was about 75 spx pts = about 600 dow pts, and the Immediate rebound was almost as vigorous

Jay

option week

The NEXt 78 hr cycle is due on Jan 31 st and it looks like it should be a low
The 68 hr cycle which was in force thru Nov seems to have shifted prominence to the 78 hr.
thats 12 days of trading with 6.5 hrs each day.

The dow did perform as indicated last week, but I dont think theres any more gas left in the tank.
I couldnt get the pc ratio readings from the CBOE for Friday.

However, the ENERGY which includes the Satelite readings, astro readings, and cycles do seem to indicate a sell off is due next week and should culminate on the 22nd.

It wont be an easy ride to get there as it is option week, and the predominance has been to trade higher, but on occasion we do get selling in such a week.

Tues has 180 bars at 4pm, but NOON on WEd hits fibo 210 bars at noon along with a Sun 45 to Uranus.
This SHOULD be the first stopping point on the trip lower.

Thursday, however has the new moon after market hours with either 90 bars at 4pm or 329 bars at 3 pm.
take your pick, it should be the second stop on the way down.

Friday should be a solid rally day.

Monday Jan22nd, even though the energy level is positive, the astro energy is NOT.
THUS a Jupiter/ Uranus Square at 5pm on the 22nd should set the stage for a strong rally the rest of the week on the 23rd to 26th.

Jay

bad READING

I really do have to pay less attenentioin to those readings- they can be misleading.

Please accept my apologies.
Please understand that I am posting this info for my own benefit, and anyone who chooses to use the info is doing so at their own risk.

NOW- Heres what to expect and WHY

Carl Futia is an excellent technician and his blog posting today and prior posts indicate March spoos at 1455 minus 11 pts for cash =1444

THE TOp should occur on Jan 12th at dow 12,680 /12,700
SPX due to hit 1444 which is 20pts from here =180 dow

Jan 12th AT 4pm is exactly 87 hours from dec 22nd, the last important low.

The STAN HARLEY 259 bar cycle hits today at 2pm, and should providean only a minor blip

other than Tuesday, the ENERGY readings have been POSITIVE all week, including today and tomorrow.

I'm Moving my SELL alert to FRIDAY at 4pm.
At that point I WILL BE BUY FEb puts.

THE NEXT 259 bar cycle hits at 10am on the 19th, but the NEW moon effect and SOLID NEGATIVE energy force is strong on Tuesday to Thursday Jan 18h..

Best wishes to all.
Jay

180 bars ignored

Heres a lesson I learned today

When the 126-130 bar hit produces a LOW like it did today at 9:45, then expect the 180 to be a NON event, and of course that works vica-versa also.

Today's close is influenced positively by the 68 hr cycle due at 3:30 pm- 4pm
Thats OFF the Dec 22nd LOW

Its alomst 2pm, and now the dow is up 18 pts.

Jay

bar cycle rules the day

The 126 bar cycle hit right at the open, and a small recovery is in progress at 10:30 am

the BEST advice I have to offer is :
GET SHORT AT 4PM today and stay short till Jan 18th CLOSE - new moon that night.

259 bars hits at 10 am on the 19th so expect a very breif overthrow and solid recovery on the 19th.

today has another 180 bar cycle hit at 2pm just after a minor lunar astro event at 1:27
Together they are apt tp produce the days low.

Jay

right on track

Looks like the 90 bar cycle HIT at 12:10 pm and the dow was -51 for a blink.

Ran up to -35, and now dropping again - 51 at 12:30 pm and holding there.

looks like 5 waves MAY have been completed at this juncture

We'll see how it progresses ove the next 1/2 hour till 1pm, but according to the wave and bar count, that should have been the low.

The action confirms the reading for a low start till mid day
Was a little different than Monday, but the END result should be similar.

Jay
PS bot some Feb calls at noon.

quick update

The close yesteday was suspicious and the DIVE after the open today proved that feeling was warranted.

Since there was a low at 10:30 yesterday, todays matching time period MIGHT be considered the 90 bar hit.
So far the market has rallied up30 pts off the 10:30 mark, BUT there might still be another dip b4 moving up on a more steady run.

Im waiting for the 90 bar hit that is supposed to occur at noon to 1pm TODAY, and the reading for today called for a bust and or slow start with a mid day pick up. Same as yesterday, but this time should be a better close.

High close still expected wed , but Thursday should sell off, and that has NOTHING to do with Bush's Iraq speach- a simple coincidence

Jay

Jan 8th update

Today's 259 bar hit was due at noon and the low hit at 10:30

Another low hit at 11am and 2pm - so how does it fit the cycle?
As mentioned b4, sometimes the 259 marks the start of a rebound.

Thats what we got , the 259 bar hit marked the start of the afternoon rally.

The rally was disappointing at 45 pts, but closed at +25.
That confirms tomorrow's reading for a MORNING BUST and mid day recovery.
Almost a repeat of today, but I think the low will be at least -100 pts.

Wed looks like the HIGH of the week and Bush is expected to give his Iraq update on WEd.
90 bars should hit between noon and 1pm, and from there we should see a nice rebound
Maybe the obligatory + 100 pts.

Jay

recounting bar cycle

I did a recount on the 259 bar cycle as it did seem I was way off;

This time I used Dec 29th at 3:30 pm for the last 259 cycle low

Using that as a bench mark, we can NOW expect a 259 bar cycle LOW today at NOON.

From there they should be able to rally into WEd.
There is a 180 bar cycle hit at 2pm on Wed, but if mostly ignored by the market, then look for a SHARPLY lower open on Thursday at 210 bars at 10am, and 259 bars at 2pm right in the niddle of some negative astro energy.

As of 10:15 dow is down 43, but spx is only off 3.34
3.34 x 9 = dow 27
so the spx is holding better and should LEAD the dow higher later.
Jay

Last week

Last week was confusing at best even though the electromag energy indicated more action than we got.

However, It did provide the FAILURE on Tuesday, but the slde was still contained within a rising wave;

Friday did provide a BUY at 11:30 and 2:45, even tho the 259 bar cycle hit was exact at 1:30- Not sure how to explain that phenoma anomaly, but there is a 12 to 18 bar leeway on either side which might exlpain it.

I am Still expecting an upward move next week with only Tuesday morning to be a BUST. However, That time period could prove a second buy for next week.

The energy forces for next week are strong, but If you read my Dec 16 post for 45 day outlook, you will see we are really right on track.

Jay

Closing statement

Occasionally the 259 bar cycle turns in an acceleration of the trend as it appears to have done today.
And that works in both directions.

The openning today marked 210 bars and that open got hit with a 5 min sharp dip.

Today at 2:26 pm the marekt hit it last gasp and started its downward trip to Jan 4th.

I ve mentioned the 259 bar cycle many times.
its 12 bars per hour on the 5 min chart and 78 bars per day.
Normally the cycle marks a low at fibo levels of 126 and 204
However, I have observed MANY times, there are signifigant lows at 90/180bars.

Once you have observed those points, you will get the hang of it.
Im sure If your day trading index options this tool is invaluable.

Its a rythm that is clearly observable.

I bot puts at 2:30pm, and missed the best possible price by a few minutes, but Im satisfied as the close added value to my purchase.

PLEASE note that I will NOT be posting anything next week, unless I can get to a computer, but for the most part, I will be on vacation.

Jay

update 12/29

The market is CLOSED on Jan 2nd for Pres Ford memorial.

That means anything it was destined to do on the 2nd will now have to take place on the 3rd.
2 days for one.
The Wave count will not be denied

Still expecting a serious decline on 3rd and now most of 4th

259 bars is supposed to occur today at 1:30- which is right now as I write, and the dow is off about .50 cts and spx off 1.44.

In order to advance the bar count, it has to be valid for that time slot, or within an hour each way.

If it occurs NOW at 1:30, then we move the count forward to THURSDAY for 180 bars at 1:30pm, and According to Stan Harley its possible the low would occur at 204 bars which would be at 3:30
My guess as it stands right now is 3:30PM
but next Thursday is a long way off.

Best wishes for new year
Jay

Year end update

So far we are right on target for another new high probably tomorrrow Friday Dec 29th- last day of trading for 2006.

First week of Jan 2007 still on target for heavy selling 2nd to part of 4th.

Can't say where the low would be , but spx 1390 would probably be a likely target.
1444, if we get there tomorrow -1390 = 54 x 8 = 432 dow pts?? just a guess

Today has 180 bars at 1:30pm and should mark the days low;

Im GLAD and surprised they wont be closing the market for Pres Ford's funeral, but just as well, we dont need another off day.
Jay

Xmas update

I seem to be updating more often than I thought I would, but thats OK with you , Im sure.

The market performed exactly as indicated and still might have a bit more sloppyness on the 26th before finding its footing.

PC ratios are thru the roof and as indicated screaming BUY.

A must read daily is CARL Futia- Accordingly, He is projecting a low on the SPX at 1405which is only about 5 pts lower and an = dow would be about 40 pts. That takes the dow to 12,300 area which had previosuly been posted.

From that level, Carl has projected a rally to 1455 on the spx futures = spx 1444 cash = dow to 12,600

A BIG change is overdue and MY work indicates the FIRST week in Jan 2007 will set the tone for the whole month and it should be substantially lower by months end.
Jay

Xmas trading

As previously indicated there is some evidence via Planet Index A ,cycles,elliott,astro, etc, that the market should sell off the next 3 days.

Carl Futia showing down to SPX 1405

I do expect a big YEAR END rally THEN to be met with a FIRST week of 2007 equally BUT- IN REVERSE.

Jay

DEC 19 added comment

Actually the 90 bars did hit at the OPEN today.- not an acceleration, but a true LOW at 90 bars at 9:35.
Then look at 1:15 which would add 45 bars to the low at that point.
The Acceleration UPWARD began right after 235 bars at 1:15

Looking at the PC ratios, we could envision a stalemate today. They are MUCH too high to get anything rolling lower.

BTW, if your a day trader, you might want to consider using Stan Harley's 259 bar RYTHM cycle. Im sure it would help.
Jay

DEC 19 comment

The Stan Harley 259 bar rythm hit today at the open and it was a 180 bar acceleration of the trend- DOWN.

There is a 259 bar cycle at 4pm Today and it will be fascinating to see if its another such acceleration.

The 37 tr day cycle is Thursday along with a Mars Square Uranus, and as PREVIOUSLY indicated, should mark a trading low.

The ACTUAL LOW should occur on Friday at the NEXT 180 bar cycle hit at 11:30 AM

Jay

DEC 19 comment

The Stan Harley 259 bar rythm hit today at the open and it was a 180 bar acceleration of the trend- DOWN.

There is a 259 bar cycle at 4pm Today and it will be fascinating to see if its another such acceleration.

The 37 tr day cycle is Thursday along with a Mars Square Uranus, and as PREVIOUSLY indicated, should mark a trading low.

The ACTUAL LOW should occur on Friday at the NEXT 180 bar cycle hit at 11:30 AM

Jay

Market direction next 45 days

Without going into detail as to how I arrive at these dates, just let it be known that much thought and research goes into this outlook.

DEc 15 should be the HIGH of the year
Dec 21/22 is next turn and it should be a LOW point.
Dec 29 should finish the year retesting the highs

Jan 2007
Jan 2-3-4 should sell off severely
5th to 12 th look like rebounding
Jan 17-18 should find some selling
Jan 26th next high
Jan 29/30 DOWn again
thats all for now folks;
I know I'll be keeping track of this myself, as it helps to understand and stay on track when something doesn't quite go the way I envisioned it.
Bests wishes
Jay

option week

Market hits new high, but you already knew that. DOW 12,416
whats next you ask? -- lets explore
Merc Square Urnaus at 10 am- bearish tone
18 day cycle hits today at 2pm - could be last gasp high
markets usually find a low withing 5 trade days after this cycle. = Dec 22nd
90 bars hits at 3pm- could be the low of the day
OEX pc ratio 1.15 not bullish, but not very bearish either
CBOE pc ratio .74-- very bearish
SPX 500 PC ratio = .63 very bearish
So we do have bearish overtones the day after most index options expire.
Jay

Market Direction

It appears there will be no sell off this OPTIONS week.

The PC ratios are much too high, indicating TOO MANY BEARS and sentiment wont let the market dive.

As for ASTRO, the SUN conjuncts Jupiter on Monday at 9:37, indicating a CHANGE

The new moon is on the 21st

Mars Squares Uranus on the 22nd

Since the 1st provided a LOW, we should consider the 14th-15 as the high, and 22nd as another low

Looks like Those 20 and 72 week lows appear they will occur NEXT week.

market phenomena

The 259 bar cycle typically has 2 mid points.
90 AND 180 bars
90 bars hit exactly at 12;30 today
180 bars hits tomorow- WED at 1:30pm
and 259 hits on Thursday along with the 18 day, 87 hr cycle BOTH at 2pm

The Magnetormer planetary index is an 8 tomorrow, which is not necesarily very high, but could see the dow down more than today.

another stopping LOW point is at 204 bars, which does hit at 4 pm tomorrow.
It remains to be seen which cycle will hit the lows.

Jay

market phenomena

The 259 bar cycle typically has 2 mid points.
90 AND 180 bars
90 bars hit exactly at 12;30 today
180 bars hits tomorow- WED at 1:30pm
and 259 hits on Thursday along with the 18 day, 87 hr cycle BOTH at 2pm

The Magnetormer planetary index is an 8 tomorrow, which is not necesarily very high, but could see the dow down more than today.

another stopping LOW point is at 204 bars, which does hit at 4 pm tomorrow.
It remains to be seen which cycle will hit the lows.

Jay

Week of DEC 13th

1 .this week represents a 20 wk, or 5 month cycle from the June13/14th LOWS.

2. Interesting phenomana occuring in conjunction with the above cycle.
259 bars hit at 12.15 today, Monday, Dec 11.
Extend from there to Thursday = the next 259 bars cycle at 2pm, along with an 18 day cyle hit at exactly the same time.

3. Carl Futia changed his tune and now expects a small dip to 1400, then to 1437.- BUT FIRST A down day.
4. Merlin shows the market down till Thursday- could take out 40 spx pts.

5. Alphie Lavoies black box INVERTED shows a major dive thru the 14th.

6. Fed meets Tuesday. Last time they met the market rewarded them with a 200 pt rally- Might be just the opposite this week.
Jay

Dec 7th market update

This morning at 10am the market pushed to a new intraday high- That event ocurred right on the 75-77 hour cycle HIGH from Nov 20th.

Whats NEXT?

Well, now that the cycle high has passed, we might start to look for an avalanche

Will the JOBS report be the SPARK? I guess it depends on how the report is viewed with the FED interest rates in mind.

The 11th and 12th has been posted by others as a possible sell off.

There is critical support at 1380, and then 1340 after that

My own work NOW indicates, that IF a selloff starts Tomorrow, it could continue to Wed AM.

Jay

Whats next Ms Market ?

November 3rd full moon low did NOT duplicate for December 4th, but might have been just the opposite- a short term top.

Its now mid day on the 5th and the sentiment has been shifting toward bullish as the OEX pc ratio is more bearish so far today.

New moons and full moons do tend to find the markets making directional changes.

There is a 77 hr cycle due on the 7th.
There is an energy cycle hitting some high numbers similar to May 10-11 which took the dow down about 300 pts in 2 days- Will that occur in next 2 days?

Thats what the planetary index seems to be indicating, and if so will still setup a rebound on the 8th to the 15th.
Jay

Market confirmation

Its now Friday almost 11am, and the dow is down 92 pts

As stated, friday SHOULD be a part of the decline to Monday DEc 4th FULL MOON low;
also coincides with 180 Stan Harley cycle bars at 4pm.

From there, we should expect a rebound in Elliott wave fashion of 3 waves to mid month, OPTION expiration HIGH.

Should go like this.
DEC 4th LOW
UP to Dec 6th
Dec 7th OFF day
DEc 11 HIGHer
DEc 12= OFF DAY
Dec 15th HIGH of month.

Jay

Market Update

The Actual LOW did occur on the 28th at 10:15 am within a few minutes of the Lunar/Uranus conjunction.

The REBOUND took the form of 5 waves,

30 spx points were lost in the decline from Nov 22 to 28.
30 x 78.6% = 24 pts
1378 low + 23.65 = SPX 1402
So far it has HELD resistence

Next big move should be a drop to 1372 spx = wave equality of 30 pts from there
Monday DEc 4th appears to be the big day, BUT I would suspect friday to contribute.

Jay

November 28,2006

After a sharp drop on Monday, the market hit a low Tuesday at 10am, right on a Lunar/ Uranus conjunction and spent the rest of the day sleeping regardless of the Bernanke speach.

Whats in store for tomorrow?

WE are within the Bradley orb plus or minus one day, so a LOW could occur on the 29th.

Stan Harley discovered a 259 bar rythmic cycle, and tomorrow at 2:30 pm hits 180 bars within that cycle. MY own observations indicate that point could turn in a low for this week.

End of month buying should take over on Thurs and Friday

However, Monday, Dec 4th holds out for another dip.

That should complete a minor correction.

I dont think the TREND has changed to DOWN quite yet, and there may be higher levels coming by mid Dec.