78.6% retrace Wave 2

DOW chart from ALPHAHORN

Shows WE are right at 78.6% resistance on the dow
and the SPX at 1071 which is what I posted several times

For those who want to know

I bot 1500 TZA at mkt guru
I bot TZA at my LION account
I bot DJVWU

In Other words, the MKT has achieved its GOALS on the UPSIDE

and will NOW work its way into a SLIDE later today and especially Monday

Jay

Nov 6th

The above chart from Daneric's public pages just about covers it

upper limits today at 1073 to 1088

BUT my power index says watch out for the FALL afterward

Jay

H & S forming

IT seems obvious that the LEFT shoulder is
WAVE 4 and 5 of the previous degree

and the RIGHT shoulder is
wave 1 & 2 of the next degree

noon hit the low so far at 220bars rather than 228, and 12;45 pm is on the rise toward 1pm

A more serious drop should occur at the 3pm pivot low on 258bars and Moon 90 Uranus

that should offer another BUY OPP for today's close and tomrrow's OPEN

Jay

WHATS NEXT ?

from Chart pattern trader

IMO,
THE LOW of NOV 2nd SHOULD be the start of an UPTREND lasting till DEC 4th

BUT OF COURSE - NOT a straight line

in fact quite jagged and might even make some lower lows along the way.
but more about that later
_____________________________________
lets talk about NOW
Futures at 8:30am now positive - dow +50

AS was mentioned a few times we GOT the LOW at 1029 on NOV2nd
NOW- POWER & Propens INDEXES are BOTH pointing higher today & tomrrow

upper channel line appears from technical charts to be in the 1070'sh area
Midnite high TIDE Saturday -7th

Natural energy shows rally mode to continue into FRIDAY at about NOON
and power index shows a drop off Friday afternoon into the 10th at the Sun 90 Jupiter

The NEXT Negative this month occurs on the 15th with Saturn 90 Pluto
and should coincide with another low on the 13th-- some people insist on the 12th

I know, You want to know;; LOWER LOWS or NOT-- Impossible to answer
so I wont even try

more later
Jay

tomrrow open

FROM DANERIC'S public chart pages

Could reach a little higher by 9:45 before setting back some

Tomrrow calls for IMPROVING for the better

and the FED is announcing at 2;15pm

ONE important feature about tomrrow and Thursday @3am is a SUN 0 MERCURY
which USUALLY has some very potent positive action occurring with rallies.
Add to that a Neptune turning DIRECT for extra pazaz

Todays bar cycles were perfect at 60bars @11;30 for the LOD
AND
90bars just b4 the 2;15pm HOD

fascinating that the LOD Monday was at 2;10pm on the FM,
and
Today's high was exactly at the same time
youve seen me mention 39 hrs
well this one was 390 minutes
ITS Amazing HOW often 39 turns up as a cycle

TOmrrow's bar cycles are
126 b@ 10:30
156b @ 1pm
180b@ 3pm

IF A low at 10:30 should find footing by 11am and turn higher

HOw high is HIGH ?
I'll let better technicians who are here tell us the potential
but 1070 would give us a 200 pt dow rally from today's close,
unless they sell back to 1030 first.

TRANNIES got a HUGE lift from Warren today.
wonder if HE bet on it ?? or some one in his org. might have made a bundle today


Jay

Break DOWN

Broke thru the LINE and DROPPED right after

NOW near noon and made lower lows at 11;30

NOT sure to hold or not-

My indication is to hold till EOD , but I have more tolerance

Jay

WHATS NEXT !!!!

THANKS for ALL the GREAT COMMENTS and DIVERSITY

Futures at close yesterday were influenced by Venus 120 Neptune - & LOOKED very positive
BUT this MORNING - MY indicators are ALIVE & WELL
EUROPE was OFF 2 % earlier but still near that at 8am

Activity index was FLAT at 100 ALL NIGHT
Flux index - FLAT AT ZERO
PROPENS index NOW in concert with POWER INDEX
BOTH SHOW LOWS TODAY and POSSIBLE lower open at 9;45am on 4th
Helio Bradley shows low on 4th
60 bars @ 11:30 along with the other cycles
90bar at 2pm
108bars - NOT one of the usual suspects but its at 3;30

a 2% drop would suggest a loss of dow200 = spx just under 1020 to 1017

WE'll see how low they get at the FIRST CONVERGENCE
to determine what to do for the rest of the day
BUT
it does appear today will mark an important low
Flash's rouge wave may have occurred after the FULL MOON LOW at 2;10pm yesterday

THERE WAS a CLEAR FIVE waves from the HIGH at 10am to 2:10pm,
and 3 waves rebound to close
NOW we can clearly see a 5th wave TODAY which should break into 5 waves during the day
Usually, the THIRD wave of this series will offer a HIGH VOLUME LOW
and the 5 of 5 will offer a PRICE LOW, & making a TURN will show
LESS VOLUME at a lower price.

Warren Buffet buying Burlington Northern - WOOPIE
and futures are now off only 5.00, but its only 8:25

Jay

WHATS NEXT ?

Heres a Couple of intersting notes

1. Elliotters tend to LABEL endings TOOO SOON- Sorry Dan, but it is a common event- ME TOO
thus Re label wave [5] to 3:30pm
wave a possible to 1043.54
wave b to 1035 at close
wave c today to 1052 at 10am
IF I could confer with Elliotters using astro , bar cycles, 13day cycles , etc ,
we might become more precise
but I doubt that will happen.

THEN
using the 80 pt spread from 1101 to 1020
1033-1052 = 19 pts
19/ 81 = 23.6 % FIBO

2. THE LOW of Friday hit at 3pm and DAMN, I missed it - @ 204BAR CYCLE

what does that mean for tomrrow?
Typically , when the SPX make sits LOW at 204 bars there is a FOLLOW thru LOW at 329bars

WHICH HITS AT noon:30 TOMRROW & can truncate up to one hour early
which makes it occur in conjunction with:
39 hour cycle @ 11am
23.6 %/13 day @ 10:56
60bars at 11;30

MY activity index started out this AM at 200- thus a rally
dropped as low as 66, but ran up again to 200, and is NOW at 133
SINCE it has NOT jumped above 200,it appears to be waning in strength rather than gaining

more later
Jay

shades of the past

Be it 1987 or 1929

NOV 2nd follows a STRONG DOWN FRIDAY which has a large percentage of follow thru
on Mondays

FLASH rouge wave does NOT mean RALLY

Break under 9700 has a gap between there and 8400

Gunther's comments has it right- Friday's BIG RED candle will be
followed by a further decline, and lower on open next day (TUESDAY) for TURN

NOV 2nd = 233 FIBO trade days from DEC 1st, 2008 & dow was off 680 pts

more later
Jay

Bullish or Not?

Still got the same question

TO THE MOON ??? IMO, NOT here at this point

NO BUY signals were generated by the internals
MY Proprietary Vol & Adv Dec indexes did get to oversold - both under 400 for 2 days
thus the rally today, and my 10;30 dip was very minor- but it was there
so the call to be BULLISH TODAY was a good call

The CHART above
from 1101 down to 1074 was 5 waves = 1
1074 back up to 1095 = possible wave 2
then 3 waves dn-up-dn to 1042 on the 28th
Back UP to 1067 Today for wave 4, which may or may not be complete

NEXT is wave 5 which IMO, completes on Nov 3rd at 11am
___________________________________
BUT this down leg is ONLY part of the correction NOT the WHOLE

There is ONE huge reason for this action at this time
MARS entered LEO on OCTOBER 16th which gave us the first indication that
MARS was NOT a happy camper and wont be happy during this transit till JUNE 2010
_________________________________________
Also note that Saturn's transit of Virgo entered 29 degrees on oct21st
29 degrees is the WILD card of a transit and FUSSY VIRGO sure did start something.
________________________________
28th at 4am of the 29th we had a SUN 90 MARS effecting markets
__________________________________
this wkend and Monday - MARS gets rough with MERc & Uranus = emotional overload
unreliability- ANGER- unyielding- unsafe- hmmm doesnt sound very happy to me.
__________________________________________________
Thats enuf to absorb for now- any more will only get lost in the daily updates
HOWEVER,

THERE is ONE more EVENT this year that WILL SHAKE UP THE ESTABLISHMENT
and cause HAVOC through out the world
MARS will TURN RETROGRADE on DEC 20th and HE WILL JAM ON THE BRAKES
leading to the DECMEBER 31st BLUE MOON ECLIPSE adding to INSECURITIES
and CONFLICTS.

needless to say
WE WILL ALL BE VERY HAPPY TO SAY GOOD BY to 2009

REMEMBER - YOU HEARD IT HERE FIRST
more later
Jay

Bullish or Not?

Futures change FOCUS for the OPEN

SPX lost 60 pts and now should REGAIN at least 20 pts to 1060
TODAY and part of tomrrow.

STILL should DROP off after the OPEN ~~ JUST LIKE it did on NOV 21st, 2008.

It would appear the E MINI did get to 1037, but the cash mkt did not

STILL got NOV 2nd, and NOV 3rd in RETREAT

THAT SUN 90 MARS had its effect yesterday and did have an effect on ASIA overnight, but its
INFLUENCE has past and now only cycles remain as the influence for today

Power index shows potential for big day today and im waiting for Propens index to catch up
and show me what to expect tomrrow, but for today it also agrees with a rally.

Jay

Free fall

This DESCENT from 1101 doesnt stop on stochastics

It takes a critical CYCLE pivot which
ONE MORE TIME
is TOMRROW at 10;30-11am

Jay

correlation - maybe

Consider the SCENARIO I have laid out
against the above chart
Kenny used this chart to show where we might be at the moment

FROm where I stand it looks LIKE the X wave hit at 1091
that might mean wave a after the X might have hit this AM
BUT I dont think so

WE have 2 important CYCLES converging in NOV
first on NOV 2/3 IMO, and then on NOV 9/13 according to Hadik

THUS, I would overlay the MKT to hit wave a AFTER the X on NOV 2nd
then wave b which follows on NOV6th
leaving ONLY wave c -Y to occur on NOV 9-13
and IMO, its actually NOV 16th

ALSO What ALL that means is WE GET another
RUN to new 2009 HIGHS by DEC 17th - Which is WHERE we see JUPITER 0 Neptune
that represents the ULTIMATE illusion of POWER

BUT we really dont need to be concerned about Dec just yet.
its just to get some perspective on what level the
NOV 2nd and or 13th dates might settle out.

keep in mind a very simple RULE OF THUMB = SPX 40 pts = to dow 300 pts
Ive been recording this phenomena for quite some time now

From 666 to 1101 = 435 pts, nearly 440 which is 11 x 40
From Oct2 to Oct21 at 1101 = 81 pts
From 1101 to 1061 is Hmmmm = 40 pts

NOW we should probably be looking for this wave to correct
the WAVE from July8th at 870 to 1100 = 230 pts
the previous correction at that time was 6/11 to 7/10 and 86pts
________________________________________________
YOU CAN SEE HOW EVERY WAVE ADHERES closely to the 40 pt rule
& NEAR multiples of 40 So we should expect the same NOW
_____________________________________________

using FIBO we can determine those price levels
38% x 230 = 88
50% = 115
55% = 126
62% = 143
and so forth

So far we only see about half of 38% = 40 pts

1pm was 204bars and they are taking that out as I write
the next bar cycle is at 3pm

Jay

MORE DRIFT

chart from Kenny's blog

counting yesterdays close as a 5th wave might be a bit short sighted

After a shock like yesterday we might think there should
be more drift lower and thats very possible today

couple of things I track lead me to look for drift lower

I track a 13 day cycle which You may be aware of
called the JAYWIZ cycle

IT HIT exactly at NOON yesterday, but did NOT stop the MKT
from heading lower afterward

ITS A 13 day cycle which I have broken into its FIBO parts
The NEXT MAIN STOP of that cycle is on THURSDAY at 10:30

BUT
in between, is another POSSIBLE stop at 10am on the 28th, which could lead to
a strong rally for the day till 2-3pm as I have posted several times
___________________________

So whats next?
DRIFT LOWER today, with some attempts at minor upswings
a Jaywiz cycle low at 10am tomrrow with a STRONG attempt to run it up till 2-3pm
a Jaywiz cycle low at 10:30 Thursday & rally which might up hold all day
but that means the 30th should start lower into that NOV2nd LOW on the radar
___________________
basically its my heading-- SELL THE RALLIES till NOV 2nd LOW

Jay

Chart pattern trader public charts

Referring to chart above, AND reading the accompaning
material which explains waning volume, etc we can see the mkt is locked into a descending
channel
NOW it just becomes a matter of WHEN rather than IF

In order to determine WHEN, we MUST look into the FUTURE
and how do we do that?
we can use CYCLES, chart patterns, Astro, Elliott or all of those and more

My power index still indicates some selling today,
and that would take it back to the lower line at 1080 - 1075
but the chart pattern above says it wont be severe UNTIL the BOTTOM line is broken

WHEN can we EXPECT that to happen?
there is a 39 hour cycle hi due on the 28th at 2pm, thus it could become the turn point high
FROM there, the daily readings become pessimistic and culminate on NOV 2nd

SO, here we are {BEARS IN WAITING}- just like the PIC from REd Dragon
In the meantime, we can catch the small waves of SPX 10 pts down, then 10pts up

Why do markets stall ? because traders wait for a signal to buy or sell
NEWS? as a catalyst, yes, but not a reason- if you get what I mean
THE SELLING MODE IS ON, but we wait for the other shoe to fall, so to speak

Jay

SELL the RALLIES

from chart pattern trader - link to red dragon to see more

About to SPILL ITS GUTS

Link to HELGE to see His expectations for Monday

Mkt has TURNED THE corner

BUY the DIPS for SHARP rallies of SHORT duration

Oct26th LOW should get a 2day rally with a high at 2pm on the 28th

Nov 2 as described b4 should get Nov 5th rebound high,
but more detail on that later

Jay

Market Thoughts

Chart from Mortie IMO, has it pictured correctly

I had posted a MARKET decline starting on the 22nd, but it really began on the 20th
22nd was only a FIBO retracement for the SPx at 78.6%

And I had also written, the mkt would GIVE IT UP on the 23rd and 26th

Im still expecting a GAP open lower, which did NOT occur on the 23rd,
but should do so on the 26th

Jaywiz cycle points to a low at noon, but it could pivot (+) or (-) one hour either way
90bars @ 10am
126 bars @ 1:30
150bars @ 4pm

Late recovery leads to a strong 27th, and another short opp at 2pm on 28th

NOV2nd is STILL the longer & stronger short term cycle pivot low
233 fibo Dec1, 2008- that day was off 700 pts
81 july8th low
54 Aug17th lo
110 Jan 2 hi
21 to 10/2

more later
Jay

78.6%

SPX 1095 = 78.6% from todays low

SELL late AFTERNOON today

Jay

CANT IGNORE THIS ONE

Chart from MARKET Thoughts - see link on main page


NOW theres a BREAK that WONT GO un noticed

SELLING begets more selling at times like this

Jay

BEARS are WAITING

Just in case you missed this - PIC is from RED DRAGON

Use the LINK on my main page to his blog

Even tho we see the FUTURES pointing lower at 8:45am,
I think the day should end on the upside
and at least attempt 1096-1097 as has already been mentioned by others.

As far as GAP opening lower, we will probably hold that off till FRIDAY and or Monday

SPX 1080 has been posted by others as an important break point.

FLUX indicator is FLAT and has been for 3 days = bearish
Activity index was FLAT at 66 ALL night, but is now at 100 @ 9am
propens index shows some weakness in the AM, and strength later today
Jaywiz cycle has a pivot low due at 11;29am-
<>

basically more stalemate today- good to hear that
CNBC sees the 1100 as a culmination point,
BUT NO ONE is predicting a major sell off

FOR more charting- LINK to Red Dragon, and use his links to see some
very good charts and commentary

more later
Jay

WHATS NEXT ?

According to my Scientific Resources the STOCK markets WILL GIVE IT UP

ON

OCTOBER 22 -23 & 26

Jay
_____________________________________

Repeat : FROM The WEEKEND report

spread sheet with daily ARMS index back 5 + years

IT JUST ISSUED A TECHNICAL SELL SIGNAL

ON 10/1

5 day ARMS was @ 160
5day TRIN was@ 802
10 trin was @ 1538

on 10/16
5day arms = 79.4 -- under 100 is a sell
5 day trin = 397 -- under 400 is a sell
10 trin = 841 -- under 1000 is a SELL

THE KEY number is the 10 day which just dropped out of bed today

Tomrrow @ 10am
Will most likely see the dow at 10089
and spx at 1098

Cycles

Chart is from SLOPE of HOPE
Go over there if you cant read it here, using the link I provided on my main page.

I picked up on an 11day cycle recently- I dont know HOW long it is going to repeat
but here are the dates for now

July10 @ was also a turn higher on a Jaywiz cycle low @ 10;30
July31st, but the 29th was the low & turn on the Jaywiz cycle low at 11am
Aug 17 - low
Spt 2 - low
Spt18 but the high was on the 23rd& the Jaywiz cycle was on the 22nd at 10:30am
Oct 2nd - low
Oct 19th TODAY - & the Jaywiz cycle was on Oct12th at 10:30am
NEXT comes
Nov 2nd , but the Jaywiz cycle is on the 29th at @10:30am
indicating potential for a turn higher on the day,
but imo does not negate the 2nd for the pivot low
Nov 16
Nov 30
I guess we will see how those future dates work out

They are only dates that seem to indicate a turn, so we will watch them as they approach

Jay

Chart pattern trader public charts

Go over to RED Dragon via a link from my main page

Scroll down at links on the right and click on " chart pattern traders charts"

He has multiple DETAILED charts showing technical data other than the above chart

Ive only chosen this one as it has an overall view of that last few months

You will also notice THIS IS NOT Elliott wave
______________________________________

Thanks again for Spiral calendar article pointing out
Oct16th
Nov23
Dec11
as important future dates
I was impressed as he did have JULY11th as a key date earlier this year
which did turn out to be the pivot date into the the current high
___________________

Jay

Tech SELL SIGNAL

INternals just gave a TECHNICAL SELL SIGNAL

You may not know it , but I keep a DAILY LOG of

DOW
SPX
NASDAQ
NDX
XAU

PC ratios

spread sheet with daily ARMS index back 5 + years

IT JUST ISSUED A TECHNICAL SELL SIGNAL

ON 10/1

5 day ARMS was @ 160
5day TRIN was@ 802
10 trin was @ 1538

on 10/16
5day arms = 79.4 -- under 100 is a sell
5 day trin = 397 -- under 400 is a sell
10 trin = 841 -- under 1000 is a SELL

THE KEY number is the 10 day which just dropped out of bed today

Tomrrow @ 10am
Will most likely see the dow at 10089
and spx at 1098

Jay

new thread & NOV 2nd

NOV 2nd = 610 FIBO low
Follows
SPT2nd
OCT 2nd
NOv 2nd
Last of that sequence

Nov- DEC & Jan have an UPSIDE Bias

Timing the rest of this month, got pushed back from 7th to 14th
because the actual low was OCT2nd, not SPT 25th as previously had been posted.
Each date was ONE WEEK apart= 5 trade days

Using 14th as the TURN ** also indicated by Erik Hadik as a conversion date
20th low intraday
rebound to 22 - mid day
lower to 23/26th
rebound to 28th =39hrs at 2pm possible hod
Low on NOv 2nd or intraday on 3rd..

Using FLASH's posted low of 8650 is simple fibo math
10k-6440= 3550 Dow pts gained
3550 x 38.2% = 1350 Dow pts
10K- 1350 = 8650
55% = 1952 pts = dow 8050 which comes close to the JULY10th MAIN PIVOT
JULY10 WAS the SPIRAL CAL date, AS IS OCT16th
CHRIS has DEC 10th as a possible CRASH date, NOT NOV 13th,
but I see them only as pivot lows on the way to a LATE Jan high

THE MAIN POINT I WANT stress is HOW QUICK this will happen
Between NOW and NOV 2nd
THE PROOF of LOSS will be HOW deep the hit on OCT19th

THE SHARP drop is simply because this will be a "B" wave.
which means the REAL "C" - P2 is still coming and probably
WONT TOP TILL MID Jan 15th ECLIPSE

_____________________________

NOV 2nd DATA
Full moon at 2;14pm
is surrounded by hard aspects
and is ONE Day after the return to EST

NOV 2nd date is related to
DEC1st, 2008, which is 233 fibo & dow was off 680pts that day,
THAT DATE became the PIVOT LOW till late Jan, early Feb.

NOV 2 = 54 tr days from AUG17th low to low
NOV 2 = 110 from Jan 2 HIGH to low
Jan 2 was a LARGE fibo convergence of 55-89-110 + 144 tr days
Nov 2 = 21 tr days from Oct2nd

That LAST time I showed YOU a large fibo convergence was OCT 2nd
and we know what happened after


Jay

NO MORE UPSIDE this week

SPT 23rd high @ 2;30pm -Fed day
+ 39 hours

Oct 2nd LOW @ 10am
+ 39 hours

Oct12th high
+39 hours

Oct20th at 10am - low
Oct20 also has a 50%/13 day cycle segment at 2pm
No way to know which will be the LOD
_________________________________
Overlapping cycles
Spt30 at 10am lo
OCT 8th at 10am hi
NEXT is OCT 16th at 10am
______________________

Weakness increases today, and tomrrow
Expect a HUGE drop on 15th
Minor reversal on 16th at 10am, BUT
resumption of decline on 19th & 20th as above

Jay
media and public sentiment very positive
CNBC loves to hear themselves say DOW 10,000
Today's closing PC ratios should be quite bearish

Monday Oct12th

You can pick whatever reason you want in hindsight

BUT Im going to STICK my NECK out and predict
an SPX 25 pt or Dow 200 pts LOSS Monday into 10;30am
and virtually flat the rest of the day

Now that the Market has just about everyone convinced its looking for 1108
and of course the floor wants you to BELIEVE higher highs are coming next week
They dont want the public butting in on their territory

And that decline is NOT as {Market Thoughts} pictured
as a wave 2 setback thus setting up the next wave higher

And just because some of us could NOT convince the mkt to turn on the 8th [g]
doesnt mean more highs are ahead -

more later
Jay

5th wave FAILURE ?

chart FROM Market THOUGHTS

a very bearish view

Label it any way you wish, it calls for a serious change in direction

Heavy astro activity this weekend - leads to NEW moon next week end

with hard aspects in abundance on the 15th & 16th.

Jay

OCTOBER 2009

For those keeping score at home today looks familiar. October tops/bottoms since 2002:

2008: 10/10 (Friday before options exp) 23.8% rally in 2 days!!!
2007: 10/11 (Thursday before options exp) 8.1% drop next 4 weeks
2006: No Trend
2005: 10/13 (Thursday before options exp) 4.9% rally next 3 weeks.
2004: 10/7 (Thursday before options exp) 4.7% drop next 3 weeks.
2003: 9/30 - 5.9% rally next 2 weeks (last day of Sept, gave it a pass)
2002: 10/10 (Thursday before options exp) 17.0% rally next 2 weeks.

-dmo

I thought that RESEARCH was WORTH repeating

ASTRO for 15th & 16th indicate a sell off for 2009
_________________________________________________

TODAY should SELL OFF till 11 to 11;30 @ astro & cycle convergence
recovery till 3:45 , but later should continue to decline at close

Today is mostly influenced by Venus 180 Uranus - cages get rattled
The END of AN expansion is prevalent as the SUn is 120 Jupiter tommrow
NOT only that BUT JUPITER turns DIRECT on MONDAY after close
It has been RETRO during the UPTREND- this is contrary to typical horoligical
thinking about Jupiter, but UNDENIABLE none the less

more later
Jay

OCTOBER 2009

Here is a VISUAL chart of NATURAL energy for OCTOBER

As you can see, we did get the OCTOBER 2nd LOW as SHOWN

AND October 7th HIGH as SHOWN

----------------------------------------
NEXT shows the START of a DECLINE on the 8th or 9th into the 12th

a very quick rebound on the 12/13th AS was DISCUSSED with ARAK

Then A CONTINUATION of a DECLINE on 14th to 16th as PER FLASH & Jaywiz

Rebound HIGH on 22nd or 23rd

24th resumes downtrend

Secondary LOW late month/ day after T day?? or early NOV

MORE LATER

Jay
PS: if this one works out, then I'll publish it monthly

P2 TOP or NOT

This is NOT an endorsement of ELLIOTT wave

However,

IT DOES POINT OUT that SPT 23rd WAS the P2 TOP

AND That WILL BECOME evident as I posted MANY times from OCT8th to the 19th

Both RED Dragon & I missed participating the rally from OCT 2nd LOW to Oct6th high
BUT we both LAST WEEK had called for a 2day rally off the OCT 2nd LOW

WE GOT JUST THAT
and to boot it got to 1060 as HE had projected and my FIBO math agreed.

NOW we have a potential to drop off to the 1035 area by tomrrow morning
thus allowing ONE more BULLISH attempt Thursday on the Midnite high tide
coinciding with moon 120 Sun at 9pm

BUT TIME HAS RUN OUT FOR the BULL & SPX 1100- IT AINT GONNA HAPPEN

P3 will be a LONG drawn out affair lasting till next March, but just like last Spt,
this OCTOBER will point out GLARING ECONOMIC deficiencies.

more later
Jay

Wave Count ?

From 1060.55 At 11;15 am

Looks like the wave is heading lower
Wave i down to noon
wave ii up to 12;45
wave [i] to 1047.24 at 2;30
Now in wave [ii] so far to 1050.59 at 2;45pm
wave [iii] should be next on the schedule

Jay

1080-1020 =60
60 x 62% = 37 + 1023 @ 3;45pm low on Friday =1060

AFTER the OPEN

The OPEn FUTURES at 8am promises to hit 1050, the 50% retrace line on the spx

the warning from the stars says

DONT promise more than you can deliver
the risk today is one of overdoing it

Jay

Bullish or Not?

In 1987 , October 5th & 6th was the START of something BIG

BUT this year is NOT 1987 and those looking for the SAME will be disappointed

HOWEVER, IM expecting an OCTOBER 13th similar to Spt 23rd and the fall after
a mid day high on the 13th into Oct19th might emulate 1987 to some degree.

Flash has posted SEVERAL times expecting a MID MONTH smash
Jaywiz says BEWARE the IDES of October
in other words - DONT BE BULLISH after Oct13th at 2:32pm

more later
Jay

LOWER on MONDAY

Even tho i dont agree with ALL HIS LABELING,
the OUTCOME for Monday is STILL LOWER to spx 1000 area

OFFERS a GREAT short term buying OPP for the next rebound into 7th till about 1pm

Oct 7th is an 8day high
making Oct 8th an 8 day TURN

If Monday makes a low at or near spx 1000 at the
JAYWIZ cycle pivot @10:43 to 11am, that might be the LOD

As far as labeling Monday's low might be considered wave [i] , not iii nor [iii]

Wave iii of [iii] seems on schedule for Oct 8th to 20th and could break out into 5 waves also.

Flash has posted b4 lows at or near Dow 8450
Hadik has similar targets for for NOV 13th.

more later
Jay

CHANNEL

Chart Via Daneric's blog

I SEEM to remember SOMEONE Else projecting OCTOBER 2nd to SPX 1000

Who was that Masked man ???

OOOOOHHHHH YEH - it was JAYWIZ

Pivot low due at 11;30

I dont think its Minuette [i]

I think its [iv] of previous degree, now looking for [v] of 5 of C
to END the UPTREND From march 9th

I had Written that LAST month and repeated it SEVERAL TIMES

WE Still have ONE MORE IMPULSE wave to OCT 8th and or 12th

Oct 12th and or 13th COULD be VERY SIMILAR to SPT 22nd & 23rd.

On the 12th there is a JAYWIZ CYCLE @ 10:30 and a MARS 60 Saturn at 5pm
13th has a VEnus 60 Mars at 2;32pm
Spt 22nd had a Jaywiz cycle at 10:30 and we topped the next day @ 2;30

No Fed this time.

I will elaborate the fascinating Jaywiz cycle at another time
It has been amazing since I discovered it on NOV 21st at 11.05 AM

more later
Jay

OCTOBER 2009

IT SEEMED there was a DELAY of about ONE WEEK on this chart
SPT 2nd low on the chart looked like SPT 8 or 9
BUT
it was UP all the way from 9/2 to 9/17 as published--
& also ONE WEEK LATER on the 23rd - not on the chart


That brings us to present
the LATE SPT decline as published should have happened from the 17th to 25th
QUESTION NOW becomes ~ was the LOW on the 25th as published
and are we NOW in SYNC with the CHART ???????
OR
does that CHART show the 23rd as the high and NOW OCT 2nd as a LOW
AS IVE POSTED several times ??


WE did get STRONG RALLY right after a low on the 25th
IT now looks possible that the END of MONTH high did occur on the 28th
AND OCTOBER 2nd should set back some AS PUBLISHED
_________________________________

I was THINKING that OCT 7th would NOT start
the decline as the published chart, BUT NOW
I AM RECONSIDERING that IT NOW WILL do just that.

I had been thinking it would be DELAYED one WEEK, to the 13th but
ASTRO this OCTOBER fits QUITE WELL with duplicating 1987 & its
AMazing that JUST LIKE 1987, OCT 5th STARTED
a MAJOR SELL OFF to the 16th/19th
THIS OCT published chart is a NEAR DUPLICATE of 1987

OCOTBER looks like:
3 legs DOWN from OCT 5th
WAVE 1 hits a LOW on the 12th in the AM with the 13day cycle at 10:30 along with Neg lunar astro
Reading calls for SUDDEN REVIVAL

WAVE 2 Rebound on 12th to AM of 14th
WAVE 3 LOW on 19th at open
Wave 4 should make it to the 23rd, but could get more complicated
wave 5 might not end till Mid Nov - Hadik's cycle date

more later
Jay

waiting resumption

Ian's chart waiting RESUMPTION of the downtrend

todays low at 1046 hit the trend line, but the next move is to break it and head lower

Jay

CHANNEL

Heres what Danerics up to the moment chart shows a CHANNEL forming

and IMO, could be
wave {A} to 1041
WAVE {B} still in progress in wave [c] of {B} today

IT would need to BREAk the channel by collapsing under 1041 with volume

I still think it will do the by Friday,

we'll see what todays close brings
the reading calls for a good start, but it did not start good. however, it did recover
and the reading also issues a caution with $$ warning

SO - a late collapse could set up the low Im still looking for on the 2nd

Jay

SPT & October

the Chart above is somewhat distorted so I will elaboate

the high shown on Spt 1 was actually Aug28th, AND
THE LOW in SPT actually came in on the 2nd as we know
but on this graph it looks like it should have been later, about the 7th or 8th
_________________________________________
Then the High looks like it should have been the 17th -and as we know it was the 23rd.

SOOO, we have to push all our dates FORWARD about a week

That takes us to the 5 wave SLIDE shown from the 23rd to ???
As per the chart, it appears to be the 25th and one reason why I posted a low on that date,
BUT
we NOW KNOW there is MORE because we have pushed the dates up a week
and that GIVES US FRIDAY October 2nd
as Ive posted several times
___________________________________________

THEN we see a VERY QUICK and DECISIVE rebound to what looks like OCT 1st,
but we KNOW that cant be - IT MUST BE THE 7th and or 8th- ADDING ONE WEEK

And even after a QUICK DIP on the 9th and maybe part of teh 12th,,
we THEN see another potential RISE possibly on the 13th & 14th.

THE BIG DEAL of the MONTH then shows a LARGE 3 wave decline into what date??
it looks like mid month on the 16th & 19th and astro does agree with that,
Quick rise to 22nd followed by dip to 26th

An EOM high matching a 60 day high on Aug 28th might end the month
on the rebound leaving the fist week in nov to head down again

more later
Jay

A day to remember

10am on 9/30 UP TO THE MOMENT, -- AHHH DOWN to the moment

window UNDRESSING

SPX off 13.70 in 15 minutes

More to follow

Jay

WAVE "B"

Looks like wave {B} came today rather than tomrrow

1080 - 1041 = 39
39 x 62% = 24 + 1041 = 1065

MERC direct starts at 9am tomrrow
Has been RETRO since Spt 6th all the way up -

MANY times mkts change direction on or near Merc Retro or Direct

39X 1.618 = 65
1065 - 65 = 1000

Remember we discussed 1040 and 1000 as important levels
so far we got 5 waves down to 1040 = wave {A}
and 3 waves up to 1065 =wave {B}
NEXT is 5 waves DOWN to OCT 1st at spx1000 = wave {C}

THE PIVOT and BUY is on Oct 2nd at 10am


Jay

Which WAY NOW Mr Elliott wave ?

MY Elliott is SIMPLER than MOST. some times thats good and sometimes not so good, [g]

I see Friday's HIGH at the 3pm TURN as the PEAK of WAVE [iv]
it has an abc formation.

It does satisfy the RULES of Alternations since wave [ii] was
barely noticeable on the way down from 1080 late on the 23rd

NOW
Note that MACD [ as ALPHA pointed out] CROSSED OVER after 3pm friday
ALSO note the OBV, not shown is on a steady drop from spt 23rd at 2;30pm

THE POWER index as previously mentioned does SHOW a SELL OFF Monday
AND the PROPENS index [as of SUNDAY am ] PRELIMINARY data has caught up enuf
to CONFIRM that drop.

SPX to 1021 should be the next objective level which would = about 185 dow points

Also, for those who are following the BAR cycle
it hits 156bars at 4pm and or open, but my inclination is for 4pm
Bryan NOTE that 78 bars at Fridays close meant NOTHING,
but 150 or 156 do have meaningful pivots

____________________________________________
TUESDAY
SINCE MERC goes DIRECT at 9am, we might expect a STRONG OPEN
And should continue biased Up in an ABC formation to midday on WED
_________________________

Thursday
has multiple long and short term cycles CONVERGING
at 2;30 = 39 hrs from the 23rd HIGH
__________________________

Friday has more and stronger convergences at 10am
21 tr days from Spt 2nd at 10am
34 tr days from Aug 17th at 10am
plus
144 tr days from Mrch 9th
216 days from Nov 21

More Later
Jay

Bryan
BAR CYCLE= 78 bars per day
12 per hour x 6.5 hours
5 x 12 = 60 x 6.5 = 390 minutes
Using a MULTIPLE of TEN x 390 = 3900
3900 / 6.5 = 6 days
we NOW see why 6 DAYS has such cyclical importance

We closed the day friday at 78 bars
that means Monday has
90b@ 10:30
120 b @ 1;30 or 126b @ 2pm
150 @ 3:30 0r 156 b @ 4pm

NOON update

WOW

Activity index is NOW AT 33, its LOWEST value

I think Aug 17th was the last time that occurred

258 bars hit RIGHT at OPEn-- now BACK in SYNC
30 bars at Noon providing a dip, but not lower low
60 bars are at 2;30
90 bars WILL be on Monday at 10;30


MONDAY could be a DAY TRADERS DELIGHT
many twists & turns of decent magnitude

If today makes its LOW at close at 1040 or lower, then I still see that as
WAVE{A}
WAVE {B} should be MONDAy to EARLY wed
WAVE {C} ends Oct2nd, also a BRADLEY date

Jay

Wave Count ?

I dont think I agree with this wave count or Daneric's either
TODAY is 28days from August 17th
you remember that day? I'll illuminate

On Aug 17th the DOW opened DOWN 199, and lingered all day closing down 186

Could today be a DUPLICATE??
at lest on close.

Lets SEE
SPX futures are DOWN 5.00 at 9am, thus 1039.47 looks like a dead issue=
IF NO SUPPORT at 1040, then 1025 might be next

SPX 1050 - 25 pts = dow 200 =1025
1080 - 1025 = 55 FIBO points

WHY NOW ?Iran secret exposed = PLUTO DIRECT & waning Sun Square
from 23rd.


DAILY Arms
Wed = 2.32
Ths = 2.04
Cumlative so far DID NOT produce a buy signal
PC ratios YESTERDAY ARE more bullish than bearish, BUT the WAVE has to RUN ITS COURSE

REMEMBER I had posted SEVERAL TIMES to BUY the CLOSE of the 25th
and a drop today of 200 dow points SHOULD LEAD TO
A VERY STRONG OPEN MONDAY= Yom Kippur

However, the reading calls for starting the day on the wrong foot,
so its STILL a bit confusing as to the OPEN for Monday
I will try to clarify later

Jay

new thread

cant post anything right now - gotta run out
Jay

UPDATE

A drop to spx 1000 by october 2nd
october 2nd is where the rubber meets the road
144 tr days March 9th - Hadiks 29/30 weeks
Hadiks **CLASSIC start of an interm correction** Spt 23rd
where is 30 weeks from today ? = LATE March as ive Already posted b4.
However, once spx 1000 is hit on october 2nd, we should get a SHARP uptrend to oct7th
BACK KISS on a receding trend line
That would be the REAL KISS OF DEATH, and they should sell off in very dramatic fashion
into the NEXT Cycle low on NOV 2nd.

PS
I will be REMOVING ALL OFFENSIVE comments
this forum is meant for the BENEFIT of traders who want somewhere to discuss the latest
market activity -

Personal offensive remarks are not appreciated by anyone
Jay

OVERTHROW

Just as this chart shows, they pushed it HIGHER to 1080 today

55 tr days July7th from LOW TO HIGH- not low to low

ARE WE THERE YET??

Looks LIKE today is the PINNACLE HIGH

THEN WE MUST CONSIDER OCTOBER 2nd will be the NEXT PIVOT LOW

OCT 2nd is
216tr days Nov 20
233 oct 27th
144 March 9th


Jay

Another chart

this chart is for Coy


Follow the 22 day cycle
or 11 days as posted

Spt18th high, not with standing the Autumn Equinox yesterday
and a midnite high tonight

NEXt date of Importance seems to be Oct2nd

more later
Jay

New Chart

Some of YOU need to get out and read OTHER analysis and provide your MARKET input

I am not a sounding board for disgruntled bears

more later, Maybe
Jay

Fred's latest

looks right to me

Jay

abc X abc

X wave today
then next ABC to lower levels
1040 minimum
1000 maximum

Jay

A FLAT

Wave (ii) looks LIKE a FLAT
why?
Low 1061.19 yesterday
10am HIGH at 1071.29
NOON low at 78.6%/13day cycle at 1064.27
3:30 high at 1071.52

OBV drops off
Macd rolled over
Ultimate topped at 3;30

That sets up a wave 3 down from the start on Monday
which fits in with the afterglow of all the EUPHORIC astro this week
Tuesday has
39hrs from the lower open on the 14th
13 day cycle at 10:30am, which opens the door for a recovery into the close

WEd is indicated DOWN from the START with NO LET UP

Get ready to BUY Friday's close

Jay

P2 TOP or NOT

reports are coming in to ID the wv (iv) low and a concensus seems to be brewing for SPX 1039

As I wrote SEVERAL TIMES a SPT 25th LOW should EXPLODE Upward to the OCT 10th to 13th TOP

SO we seem to be looking for spx1039 on or b4 Spt25th

SPX got to 1061.19, and lost 13.58 from its high of 1074.77

83 pts was the LAST gain from 992 to 1075 rounded off

the loss represents 16.36% __ aha- FIBO hits us right in the face

a loss to 1040 = 35pts & 42% - not your usual percentage, but it has worked b4.

BOTH the 25th AND Oct 2nd have fibo low point connotations
but they are occurring during a RISING trend to a crescendo on OCT10th
IT means that any setbacks within the time frames mentioned
above would most likely be muted or lessened because of that uptrend

The TRANNIES have been pointed out as a confirmation of the continued uptrend
ALSO- MY internal DATA of ARMS, etc has NOT issued a SELL SIGNAL

IT did have a MINOR sell on Aug28th and a buy on 9/2
9/2 was an 8day low, making 9/3 and 8 day TURN

We are coming up on the 25th = another 8day LOW & turn on the 28th
combined with a 55 tr day low from JULY10th, should allow that price
explosion to the end of the month

THIS IS ALL happening in DIRECT oppostion to LAST years SPT 29th debacle
leading to that MONSTER SELL OFF on Oct10th.
the FIRST sign of a CRACK in the armor last year was the SPt 4th loss of 344pts
followed bySPT15 loss of 500 pts, and so forth
JUST THE OPPOSITE this year, UNTIL we GE TO OCTOBER 10th, then, ___well

that story is FOR LATER

Jay

UPDATE

SATURN Aspects keep rally alive
Saturn 180 Uranus on 15th = EUPHORIA.

SLOW moving planets keeps euphoria alive on
16th and 17th until SUN 0 Saturn AT 2:23 Pm today.

TOmrrow, however has some big changes in store for
investor psychology and of course price levels as SELLING PRESSURE explodes.
NEW MOON at 2;44 indicates a CHANGE

A LOW at 1:30 Monday SPT 21st should setup a strong
REBOUND on the 22nd to be followed by a continuation of selling on the 23rd into the 25th

REMEMBER the 25th is STILL A BUY ,
and the BAR cycle converges with 28days from Aug17th low @ 10am
Psych read calls for EARLY STRESS
NATURAL energy offers an EXPLOSIVE rally on 28th to 30th.


more later
Jay

updated MATH & dates

the LOD was at 2;27pm on March 9th
676.53 was the MARCH 9th CLOSING LOW
at 1068.29 the gain = 391.76
391.76/909.31 = 43.1%
38.2% + 5.0% = 43.2%

the recent MAIN cycle LOWS were
Nov 20 - 2008
March 9th -2009
Days apart = 72 / 8 = 9 segments
Some use A 71 day cycle and that was one of them

But more important is the CURRENT cycle
March 9 to first high = 43 days = May 8th
From March 9 = 133 tr days or 44 X 3 =132 as of yesterday
THE NEXT LOW was May27th = 12 days from high to low
and 55 tr days frm March 6th

Which brings us to the current cycle
March 6 + 55 = May27th low to low + 71 to Spt 2nd
May 27th + 89 = October 1st low to low
October 1st/2nd = the next BRADLEY change DATE
MARCH 6th & 9th + 144 = October 1st & 2nd

other cycles ALSO CONVERGING at the SAME TIME
NOV 20 /21 -2008 + 216 days = OCTOBER 1st / 2nd = 4 segments of 54 days
Spt 2nd + 21 days = Oct 2nd = 34 days from Aug 17th & 89 May27
233 tr days OCT 27th , 2008 - which was followed a by a near 1000 pt next day rally

We are NOW 13 days prior to October 1st/2nd where the
NEXT major converging cycle LOWS reside

THIS IS A REVISION to the CYCLE low of SPT 25th

Jay





Jay




March 9th +

Ending DIAGONAL

FROM DANERICS page tonight - ending diagonal in case
you didnt know what RAVI has been referring to.

Also called an EXHAUSTION wave where wve iv overlaps wve i
ITS a TELLTALE WAVE for a REVERSAL

ITS NOT neccessary to MAKE ONE MORE HIGH as he shows it

the LAST ABC should have been enuf

Hadik Hit it on the head - 9700 on the 15th using cycle weeks progressions

SPX was NOTABLY weaker than the DOW- a telltale signal of weakness

IT is POSSIBLE that AFTER the C wave at 1056.04
might have traced out waves 1 and 2 of the NEXT WAVE DOWN

Which means that wave 3 should START from the OPEN, and might not look back for
that typical retracement after the gap open. but we will see how it behaves.

258 bars is NOT till 11;30 tomrrow
90 bars Thsday at 12;30
180 bars Friday at 1;30 AND 204 bars at 3;30

Mahendra is sadly mistaken about a crash FROM the 29th,
in fact as Ive posted - its a CRASH UP, from the 28th and or 29th.
and dont let me forget that. we dont want anon to be disapointed.

FLASH and I agree about a HIGHER high possible on Oct10th
and another serious decline FROM Oct10th to the 16th

WILD and CRAZY driving BULLS insane

more later
Jay

whats an anon, anyway ?
maybe some day that person will offer at least some initials