SPT7th EKG @ 8:30am & after close follow up

It certainly is encouraging to see today's EKG work out so WELL
We are still at 69% SUCCESS from its first publication on March 24th

Bulletin for TODAY
ARMS 5 at ** 77.8** and TRIN 5 at ** 389** BOTH issued a SELL signal TODAY

Multiple images might create a problem, but we'll see how well or not this will work.

Might have to abandon this index if this problem continues

Jay

THE BEARS

Bearish:
Arch Crawford: Meltdown soon. Mars Uranus Crash cycle: August
1st to March 2011
Carolan Solunar: 8/20: 8/23H, 9/15 Major Low, 10/14L, 11/13H,
12/13L, 1/7/11H
Foundation for the study of cycles: 8/12H, 9/3L, sideways 9/9H,
sharp 10/25L
Erik Hadik has a major 14-15wk cycle 8/9H, Then start a bear mkt.
Stan Harley: 8/9: bullish short term, 9/29 Low
Helge 8/26H, 9/7L, 9/16H, sharp down 9/25L, 11/3L, 1/30/2011L
Hunziker, Bob: late Aug High before the Sept plunge
Kevin Murphy: 8/24H, 10/8L, 1/24-25/2011L
Nav: 8/3: 9 Mo Cycle: 11/21/08L, 7/8/09L, 2/5/10L, late Oct -
early Nov 2010 Lows
Bruce Larson: 20moons Analog: 8/20H, 9/3L, 9/23H, 10/18L
Terry Laundry: August Highs are in, 17 Mo decline after.
Bill Meridian Mid July High, down to October Lows:
Olga: 8/18:bearish into EOM-early Sep Low.
J Pearl: : 8/24: Early Friday may even be the low of the week but
session mostly up. Expecting some recovery early next week, but
down to lower lows 9/2-9/7. Then looking for some recovery into
Sept OE, but another sizeable move down after 9/20 or so into Oct
at least.
Carolan Solunar: 8/20: 8/23H, 9/15 Major Low, 10/14L, 11/13H,
12/13L, 1/7/11 Major High, sharp 2/18/11 Low
Jeff Tennant: Both higher and lower prices are favored to print
Monday AUG 24. We appear to be getting close to a major drop.
WaveMechanic: 7/23: down to 695 by 12/17/10 Lows This message
was sent by T Forums for more information,
Visit http://www.timeandcycles.com

MORE WAVE thoughts

The Columbia chart that was posted
DOES show potential for wave C to complete higher as you aptly mentioned.

But its not clear WHATS DIRECTLY AHEAD this week

Since the EARLY month action is a HIGH, then in order to make
another high on the 20th as shown by Columbia, we still need
to back off this week

NOW, its NOT written in stone anywhere, YET,
that we have NOT already seen the highs of this wave
and that the 20th is only a rebound within the next decline

I have mentioned THAT several times

It is ALSO possible that the NEG energy spewing out this month
will include a serious decline thru the 24th, and final low on OCT 4th

Thus leaving OCT in rebound phase -rather than crash mode.

I hope you understand what & why Im discussing various outcomes for SPT,
but direction for each leg has not varied, only possible AMPLITUDE

The dates are still OK
10th low
20th high
24th low
29th high
oct4th low

all the above are within the CONTEXT of a {C} wave, or what some
Elliotters would prefer to call a 5th wave.

but if you follow my wave count from April26th, IMO,
the wave may only need to set back to about a 50% level
from the 550 pts gained since Mar 09,2010.

1220- 275 = 945
or 62%
1220- 340 = 880

This might or might NOT be the time for such,
but it is a possible outcome for Spt Negative energy

NOTE that we have ALREADY hit the 38% level on JULY2nd at 1010

The other 2 levels remain open

Jay

WEEKEND thoughts

Observations :
It took 21 tr days to drop from Apr 26 to May24th
spx 1220 to 1040
and 47 tr days to July 2nd at 1010 , and a 210 pt loss.

It also took ONLY 21 days from Apr 26 to May 24th to take out 180 pts
so 210 pts in 21 days is not unheard of.

that was then,
whats next?
there appears to be a possible time acceleration as Spt 3rd to Oct4th is also 21 tr days

If the target level is really spx 900, then price acceleration should also be in evidence.
well in advance of that date.

In other words, what took 48 tr days from Apr26 to July 2nd should now take
21 tr days to take out the same 210 pts

If that is going to work out, then the first drop next week should also be accelerated

I am now focused on a low on Spt10th - late afternoon @ 180bars = 2;30pm
_________________________________________

We previously had projected a low on the 9th, but upon further review, we see the 10th has potential as the 11th, a Saturday is a Bradley TURN date, and the readings do get considerably more positive from the 11th to the 20th.

other than the 9th to 10th shift, the other October dates still remain intact
_________________________________________
Heres a similar TIME relationship from 2009 & 2010

9/12/09 HIGh was followed by the Extreme low on NOV 20th in 48 tr days
for a loss of 4000 dow pts.
BUT
Feb 6th, 2010 high was followed by the March 9th low in 21 tr days
& a loss of 1700 dow pts
______________________________

the circumstances and wave positions were different then,
but the DAYS still counted out in similar fashion

Jay

HELGE

Heres a Page from Helge which shows a high end of August on the white line
but the BLUE line is a little premature
This page is a COMBO of his cycles all in one view
the BLUE line shows the NEXT direction is DOWN for SPT as rrman mentioned
Jay

SPT 2010 possibility

It certainly looks like 377 & 144 tr days hit a HIGH today
The expected pivot became a high, maybe- lets explore
to see WHATS NEXT.

Will Spt sell off ?

Arms data is on the verge of issuing a sell signal
and today's mkt data should solidify that sell

X wave rebound with lots of HYPE- typical of that type of wave

MY SIMPLE ELLIOTT count - from April26th
1220-1010= 210pts lost on wave {A}

Wave{B} high got to 1130,
and wv {a} LOW of {C} back to 1040
a loss of 90 pts

90 x 78% = 70 + 1040 = 1110 potential
we got to 1105 at 10am, and the ISM data offered a wet blanket

Using the principal of wave equality, CAN we really expect
{C} wave to give back another 210 pts from today's high which would
take the spx to the 900 level

IF this is REALLY going to HAPPEN, IMO, the BEAR must show his fangs
starting Monday.
MY timing model calls for
Spt9th low = wv i of {C}
spt20 high = wv ii of {C}
Spt24 low = wv iii of {C}
Spt30high =wv iv of {C} & turn lower to Oct 4th = wv v of {C}

What level next week would signal the above is really happening?

Using the previous wave, we might get some answers to that question

April26 to May7th on close lost 110 pts -- really close to 55% of 210 total to come
1220 - 1110 = 110 pts = 52.4% actual

If we DO GET such a loss BY the 9th, it would take the spx to the 1000 level
and set the stage for a possible 34% rebound of 38pts to 1040,
which would be typical resistance of wave ii as listed above.
You can do the math for the rest of the wave as above

Jay
this takes lots of -------
IN THE FACE OF HAVING misread the END of August

SPT 3rd EKG

THis MIGHT BE A BETTER look at today's activity

the RUN UP recovered to 1105, and using fibo of 78% could have gotten to 1110 MAX.

There could be another runup later, but would probably not exceed the 10am high

Direction counts more than amplitude

Jay
Up days continue
Jay

Graph from April26th

Graph from COLUMBIA public blog pages
Ignore the Elliott wave labels for now

Lets look at price relationships
WAVE equality, I've mentioned b4

Apr 26 high @1220 to Jly2nd low @1010 = 210 pts
1130 high on June21 - 210 pts = 920 spx

So we have potential from previous post for spx to 850
or 920 as above

WHEN, WHEN, When ??
thats the big question

that Oct 4th date looks possible, but I had mentioned Spt 24th b4,
and Im going to stick with that date a potential wave culmination,
with Oct 4th as possible back test

Now look at a SIMPLE wave count
WAVE {A} on July 2nd
WAVE {B} on Aug 9th
WAVE {C} in now progress
wv {a} low on Aug 24th at 10am @ 1041
wv {b} high in progress or may have completed at 10am today

NOW looking for {c} of {C} to complete in 3 waves as mentioned b4
SPT 8/9th low
Spt 20 high
Spt 24th LOW
30th high
oct4th low

October does NOT LOOK like a traders month - Volatility should DRY UP
especially if we get the {C} wave as described above

Jay

Volume Losing steam

5 day/ 5 minute chart above shows OBV losing steam against the most recent rally

Yesterday's ARMS index was at .26 -- which is an extremely low value and the
Up vol was 25/1 and 96% positive

SOO, wheere the the-- are we??

What should we expect next ??

Lots of good news, beneficial data this week, Very positive sentiment
377 day cycle PEAK ??? , not a trough -possibly - one of you mentioned that last week.

26 hr cycle HIGH hit right at 10am - Dow
spx a tad higher at 11am, but still within the 26 hour orb
as 258bars hit at 10;30
_______________________________
April 26top @ 1220 dropped to 1040 on the flash crash
Binve- Columbia 1, notes this math relationship
180x 1.62% = 290 pts
1130 high of X wave - 290= spx 840
____________________________

Also look at a similar relationship
Apr 26 @ 1220 - 1010 lo = 210 pts
1080 - 210 = 870
__________________________

Lets also explore TIME relationships
377 & 144 today from previous lows appears as a possible HIGh, not a LOW
then what are next time segments to look for the next low??

October 4th is showing up as a possible target, How? you ask, good question
lets explore
Oct 4th, 2010 - 610 fibo days = May 6th, 2008 which was the LAST time we saw Dow 13k
May6th, 2008 - 144 Fibo = OCT 9th, 2007 TOP
SO we have to suspect a potential culmination on Oct 4th- HIGH or LOW ?
______________________________________

I'll post a chart From April 26th
and we'll continue from there on a new post
Jay

FROM 1946- 92% Correlation

Jay

87% correlation

Its now or never
Jay

August 31st EKG

OK, But papa wants MORE
Jay
Futures indicate a LOWER open

13 hr cycle indicates a quick rebound off the open

10am/13 hr cycle indicates a SEVERE downturn
given consumer & investor confidence data

Hurricane's Earl & Fiona are heading our way- East Coast

As I PREVIOUSLY mentioned- Spx 1040 has to be broken today,
and it certainly looks like it will be CHALLENGED this AM

Once gone, the next target of course is 1010

this is NOT cut in stone, but would be expected if Your a student of Elliott waves
to reiterate
1220-1040 =180 pts lost in wave {A}
rebound to 1130 in wave {B} = 90 pts
WAVE equality would suggest Wv {C} = 180 pts
1130 - 180 =950

we have a convergence of cycle PIVOTS hitting Spt 3rd
377 tr days from March 9th, 2009
144 tr days from Feb 8th, 2010
464 tr days Oct 27th, 2008 - which is an 8 day repeating segmented cycle

more later
Jay

Pwer Graph this week

Jay

August 30 EKG

Today calls for a SLOW START
early confusion
dreamy till mid day
fruitful conclusion


30bars at 11am
60bars at 1:30
90bars at 4pm

23.6% /13 day at 11;30
should set the tone for a stronger afternoon

Jay

Hurricane Earl is on target to only skirt the eastern edge of the US coast line
but not make landfall

WEEKEND thoughts

LATE Monday should provide the high we are looking for at the 1080 area-
If it comes in the first hour, then Im off to play golf the rest of the day

Monday is an 8 day HIGH, making Tuesday an 8 day TURN, fitting PERFECTLY
into my previous scenario at the 10am/ 13 hr hod.

HERE'S THE RUB
IF we are going to see a drop under spx 1010 next week, IT HAS Got prove itself
on Tuesday by taking out the 1040 support AT A MINIMUM, other wise the "C" wave
will be very ANEMIC , and NOT make it to 950 or less

The Chart above CAN BE very deceiving -
making bulls think that 1040 was MAJOR SUPPORT

However,Typically we get WAVE equality of wave "A" & wave "C"
wave "A" from 1220 to 1040 was 180pts
which means that wave "C" Should be the same.

Monday at 1080 - 180 by weeks end =900
And if a daily decline, can also be viewed as a CLIMAX wave,
setting up the next impulse wave into at least mid NOV.

more later
Jay

Review Data & Graphs

C wave LOW at 1040, was a loss of 180 pts, = or 2x fibo 89 from 1220
rebound high of spx 1128 rebound to 1039 on the 25th = 89 pts

now expecting rebound to 1069 and or 1085 on Monday Aug 30
38% to 50% of the previous loss

From there, we might expect a fibo loss of 144 pts in what i see as a "C" wave
which could also be equal to 180 pts thus taking the spx in a range from 940 - 900
ALL within the time period from Aug 30 to Spt 3/7th
Jay

I made a note at the time that this was only a general trend graph,
and EACH day was not cut in stone

SO Far, it has been quite good expect for yesterday

Also see the graph from Columbia1 which shows the low at 1039 as possible C wave low

IMO< we should now expect a rebound in an X wave, some see it as wv ii, and others wv iv
matters not at this point how you label it

We mentioned fibo relationships with potential highs at spx 1069 to max at 1085

Also mentioned GDP revision would be beneficial for today's open and the spoos are
up near 8pts at 9am

IVE published the FIBO relationships for the 377 tr day LOW on SPT 3rd several times
and there are several other pivots meeting on the 3rd.

Ive POSTED SPT 7th at 10am as BUY BUY BUY
and as far as Im concerned that is cut in stone

ENERGY next week
Monday Aug 30 up
Tues hi at 10am, then DOWN day
Wed down
Ths up to at least at 26hrs at 10am
Fri down - should be the LOWeek and maybe LOYear
Monday Spt 7th low at 10am- 39 hr cycle & 62% /13 day

Jay

Afternoon Commentary

NOTE the fibo dates & timing

144 is FROM FEB 8th low = SPT 3rd -lo to lo
377 is from March 9th low = Spt 3rd lo to lo

This is FROM MY DAILY SPREAD sheet which keeps a record of TRADING DAYS ONLY

THEN
we must ADJUST For each NOV & DEc as there are 2 days that trade till 1pm only and count as half
days- THUS WE MUST ADD ONE FULL DAY
making SPT 7th the ACTUAL LOW

Now, note
Spt 3rd could be the CLOSING LOW
and SPT 7th the AM intraday low which is ALREADY SETUP
on my radar and blog as such at 10am

Jay

ABC at 1040 - X rebound now in progress

Its a REALLY simple case of a sell off from August 9th is an A _ B _ C decline
as Columbia shows ---
THEN
IMO, -- an X wave rebound dead ahead, and Fibo does not count for wave 4

skip ahead a bit
However, the 377 tr day cycle is closing in on SPT 3 and or 7th
Many timers forget we LOSE 1 day each NOV & DEC- there are 2 -1/2 days
so an accurate count would take us to the 7th and on the 7th there is a reading for
early disruptions at 9:49AM which coincides with the 39 hr cycle
________________________________________
NOW back to the present & How to make $ in the next 10 days

Rebound potential
Look at the first abc from 1220 to 1040 = 180 pts & rebound was 50% = 90pts to 1131
Recent -Aug 9 to 25th 1131 - 1041 = 90 pts
expect Rebound 50% = 45pts which gets us back to 1085-1090 area

BUT its NOT a straight line
8:30 Futures jumped to 1060 on not so bad jobs news,
and as of 9:15 have backed off a little.
but watch for buying opp at 120bars at 10am, after initial higher open

If you missed the above OPP, then look possibly for a sell opp Late today
Tomrrow should open exact opposite of today on GDP news as the catalyst.

PLUS there are
3 CYCLES converging that support such a scenario
14.6% / 13 day @ 10:20am
39hrs at 10am
204bars at 10am
this pivot low should offer a second buy opp leading to a high Monday at about noon

From AUG 30th- Monday's HIGH, we can expect the NEXT A_B_C lower
to make the NEXT BIGGER BUYING OPP from SPT 7th to 20th

I hope this clears up whatever mystery is in any one else's mind
OH yeh
NO CRASH IN 2010
Look at YEAR 2000, a secondary TOP hit at LABOR DAY, but this year its a secondary LOW
The bad year was 2001 with the 9/11 event as prominent, but I doubt we will see anything
like 9/11 in 2011, but stocks should be fairly weak all year, and of course it was 2002 that really set the lows in October 2002 and March 2003- so we PLOD along with NO solid direction till March 2013.


BACK TO NEXT WEEK- and you thought I forgot-[g]
Monday mid day high-
Tuesday & Wed LOWER
Spt 2nd HIGHER
Spt 3rd starts out stressful & concerns remain
Spt 7th starts out unstable, but gets better
Spt8th - is most important - Offers a FRESH START

more later
Jay

Aug 26th EKG preliminary

Except for the open, we have an UPDAY in store for tomorrow.
Jay

AUG 25th EKG

this one did not work out s well as it shows
THE 26 HOUR CYCLE & 13 day CAME IN RIGHT as scheduled, but the EKG made it look like a late sell off was going to happen, and IT STILL MIGHT , but as of tomrrow's open

Jay
Im really not sure what to make of the above
but the futures at 8:45 are modestly lower and would open at 1042 area-

This is NOT a resounding Bottoming type event, but do we really expect it today

GUESSING - IF 11am at the 13 day cycle finds the spx under 1040, then a rebound to 1050
would set up a later drop possibly to 1030, if the above EKG works out.

EKG shows late day gaps, { GREAT IF IT HAPPENS} but I really dont expect the mkt to behave that way also--

Todays energy STILL reading negative VIBES
and Tomrrow MUCH more positive thru Monday

SPOOS getting weaker as I write this at 8:55am, and IF they dp open under 1040, it is POSSIBLE to make the 10am-11am low at 1030

One would think that a break under 10K Dow would set off an avalanche of selling??
BUt we also might expect 1040 to hold this AM, but not later

Chat roll is up

more later
Jay