Tuesday, August 31, 2010

87% correlation

Its now or never


JUFU said...

The way the market ended today would be quite the precursor to a big move down. We'll have to see what the China PMI does tonight...if it were to swing below would be a significant event i think

It probably took out a good number of shorts...

Abdullah said...

They are manipulating this market up for the coming crash. Do not buy any long positions IMO.

will add more FAZ/VXX/BGZ.


Fred said...

Starting to look like a high into Labor Day rather than a low.

cementzak said...

right Fred, a huge sell off just before Labor Day, didn't sound likely to me.


E said...

Maybe the winning trade is to go short September 7th?

Jay Strauss said...

You have been reading my mind tonight
Ive been pondering the same thing

It may actually start on friday
and could finish as early as the 9th

Yes I know this is INVERTED to my earlier analysis, but actually ITS ONLY DELAYED.

earlier strategy to buy the 10am on the 7th is PREDICATED on a serious decline under spx 1010
prior to that date.

If no such action occurs, then taking such action might be ill advised

New moon on 8th early could set the stage for a rebound AFTERward

9th reading calls for a difficult AM, but better after noon
and Friday calls for a welcome change over yesterday

International Activity this week is in conjunction with good news & peace initiatives, thus leading to a {B} wave illusion high

A Bradley date of the 11th could easily truncate to the 9th

more later

San said...

Dow Jones futures before opening bell

Abdullah said...

At the close yesterday, someone with very deep pockets bought 200K contracts of the S&P. Now normal volume for the last two mins of the day is about 25K. Yet "someone" placed a mega million dollar bet. Was that coincidence? Please.

Abdullah said...

Bought more VXX

Abdullah said...

Is today a one day event? Don't we have a jobs report friday that could stink? Are we going to get long ahead of that? Is today a set up, or the real thing?

Obviously I don't trust this, this could very well be a one or two day event and then Friday it all goes "blammo".

Yes it's true that the first day of a new month is usually up. But this isn't just "up" this is a 240 point blowout, on absolutely NO real news. That spells fraud and I just can't gauge how far ( how many days) they might push it.

AS said...

So Jay - are you saying pullback sept 3 - 8 then rally into end of sept ?

Jay Strauss said...

I had previously projected spx 1080
they got to 1065 last Friday & sold off

they may back off some today and try again tomrrow till 10am

new Jobless claims tomorrow at 8:30
factory orders at 10am
Both may be non events

from 1080 - count this as the X wave HIGH with LOTS of ILLUSIONARY HYPE

Next we might look for the 90 pts sell off into the 8th or 9th
yes not the 7th which should still be part of that drop
target 990spx, maybe even 950.

Rally from there instead of 7th
to 20th at spx 1010 to 1040 resistance, depending on which level was touched on the 9th

And lows on 24th at spx 900, or 950 - see #s below

We can hope for bigger moves, but
this is what wave equality would project.

1220-1040 = 180pts
1080 - 180 = 900
it could be a matter of
Aug 9th @1130 - 180 to 950

Spt is considered the SECOND worst month of the year, if memory serves me

Many will be projecting a crash October- that AINT gonna happen this year


Jay Strauss said...

the Key dates remain about teh same as b4

7th should start out quite severe, and recover some

9th has 78.6%/13 day cycle at 12;25 along with neg energy at 1pm, and 90 bars at 1:30
That cluster {SHOULD} setup the next pivot low

Note that
Tuesday's pivot low came at 13hrs @ 9:45am with no neg energy to effect the rest of the day

Fixed star effect on 9/1 and 9/2 quite positive, but now watch out for the after effect

GOT To listen more closely to CNBC
Monday & yesterday was doom & gloom - set up for a contrary trade


KAVIAAR said...

the melt up has started, hope you'll make money -

yesterday, bullish indicator was at LOWEST level since March of 2009

Bears keep feeding this bull; when that stops market will be ready to tank.

but now to higher highs

Abdullah said...

Jay - as always appreciate your insight.

AS said...

I went long 25% in my 401 K over last couple of days .... will look to take some off around 1100 ...

Kaaviar - what bullish indicator are you referring to - can u share a link ?

AS said...

Jay - so fixed star being positive today / tomm means you expect drop from Friday ?

KAVIAAR said...


RickyBobby said...

I went long 10 mins before close yesterday as per my post:

"I covered just in time on a smaller cycle buy signal. My index is lagging the SPX. Went long"

3:50 PM

Boy did I wake up to a nice reward. Shake & bake.

What do I see now??
13 hr cycle just gave a sell signal.

My 8 day cycle is closing in a sell signal.

I'll be looking to short perhaps tomorrow for another nice swing trade.

I swing both ways.

shake & bake

Abdullah said...

Ricky - shake & bake.
nice trade

Jay Strauss said...

thanks Ricky
dont know if we are using the same cycle or not


13 hours from the 9:45am Tuesday low is tomrrow at 9:45, and could be at 4pm today or 9:45to 10am tomrrow

Power index says down from the go tomrrow &
Daily read says OPPOSITE of today

Fri has pivots around the noon hour, and recovers some afterward.

Abdullah said...

I look at todays as a BULL trap nothing else.

I may exit my long RIG position tommorrow around 10:00???

Jay Strauss said...


Kc135a said...

If the below daily SPY fractal plays out it is going to be quite the ride into September OPEX week.

AS said...

KC - can you post the link again - its not working...

Thanks :)