Wednesday, August 11, 2010

August 2010 DEBACLE

ADDING 2 +2 =

Reviewing the current status in relation to the energy about to be unleashed in the next 10days, Im still on track for a melt down next week with greater emphasis on more serious days on the 20th to 24th.

Repeat what I wrote before
BLACK Friday August 20th
Blacker Monday August 23rd
Final lows on August 24th Mid Day

I projected a math model that STILL might go all the way, or might not go that far, BUT IT MATTERS not what level the spx ends at, IMO< it matters WHEN as more critical. SINCE the BRADLEY date had been published as August 11th, and the market made a closing high @ 1127.70, it appears to me that AUGUST 9th represented an important high, marked also with a 55 & 72 week cycle convergence at the same time.

ALSO under scrutiny is the Elliott EDT formation that has been forming since the July 1st lows at which point, the spx dropped to 1010 from 1131 in about 10 days. There are a few ways to label each leg since the April26th HIGH at 1220, but to keep it simple, imo, we had a wave [A] low at 1010,

now wave [B] at 1128,

next looking at a serious [C] wave. Some have labeled April 26th as the TOP of P2, but I really think it was only wave 3
of P2, now in wave 4 of P2 which is about to culminate at about the 50% of the difference at 785.

using FIBO math, we can guesstimate what levels should be reached in this next 10 days as I showed b4.
1220- 1010 = 210 pts
210 x 62% = 130 + 1010 = possible high of 1140, got to 1127
210 X 1.618% = 340
take the recent high of 1128 - 340 = 788 as potential for the next LOW

All time high @ 1575-900 = 666 on March 9th, 2009
1575- 50% of 900 = 450 pts = spx to 1125 got there twice so far
785 = 50% of the 1575 high

More later
Ive suspended publishing daily EKG for now as I see the August outlook as MORE IMPORTANT


Today has a 39 HOUR cycle pivot due at 10am and the DOW futures are off 121pts at 7:30am pointing at that low and or 11;26am at 23.6%/13 day before heading back up later in the day & The read for the day agrees with that outlook.


Jay Strauss said...

Even if NO recovery today, there should be one tomrrow morning & topping about mid day thus the day should end lower

Friday has positive energy, but it might not seem that way as far a the mkt is concerned

ARE we ALL HOLDING OUR BREADTH for whats to come?
I know I AM

Ive shared the blog with twitter & Google
who else can I share it with to get others to take cover?

astro8 said...

Jay thanks for sharing. I think taking the Suze Orman approach is best.

Family first then Friends. What more can you do?

I don't think the bulls will give up so easily . A retest of the break down we might see. Say 1105 But the writing is on the wall. There will be no fun in Mudville

Jay Strauss said...

Friends & family are DEAF and have no idea about this blog, or the mkt

When i tell someone to expect a crash, the want to know WHY, meaning they want me to tell them about which bank is going to go under or some other NON technical thing that makes sense to the public

I told one of my friends in early 2008 that there was going to be a banking melt down in 2009
,He berated me for saying such a thing , because 1929 could NOT happen again, and NOW I always remind him of his error.

SO its really the Financial community who need to know


AS said...

Jay - that is the most you can do ... I think after the carnage today .. your reads for tomorrow and Friday may both be right as they will try to recover the mkt into the weekend ...

astro8 said...

Jay I am shy about disclosing the whys to my friends. I also just say take a look around , if you have made some profit from the lows of 09 great but take some off the table. You might need it more than you think. A market crash serves no one. not even the BEARS. But better than being a Bull.
The wife who is a buy and hold looked at the astrology charts sold off all her positions July 1 i think. There were gold miners. She rocks.

Red Dragon Leo said...


I'm pretty sure our first downside target will be the 107.35 spy print, but when we hit it is unknown?

I expect a small bounce tomorrow, but I'm with you one the day ending down. Once 107.35 is it, we should have a decent bounce. How high? Who knows?

But, I'm not so sure that the move down to 8300 (my Dow target) has started yet. Possibly one more week of up to sideways churn until opx is over with.

The week after that should be really ugly.


P.S. I see you got a new look. Much better.

AS said...

Nice viewpoint on the levels

Red - the 107.35 would be near the 50% and gap fill ..

RickyBobby said...


RickyBobby said...

I hear the BULLS weeping all over the internet. They know who they are. They were warned!

RickyBobby said...

Another sign the Top was in was everybody was showing the Ending Diagonal as their primary count. That was a disaster waiting to happen.

Dolphin said...

Jay, your market direction coincides with the above spiral dates, but you and them are a few days apart. Is this crucial?


Jay Strauss said...

Hi Dolphin
Yes, I SEE his LOW on the 19th and TYPICALLY, we would expect the FULL MOON to BE like the energizer bunny WHICH IVE POINTED OUT several times;
HOWEVER, CHRIS DOES NOT USE anything OTHER THAN The LUNAR cycles, and pays NO attention to anything else.

The reading for the 20th says REPEAT the 19th, and there is an Energy influence similar to The DUBAI event of Dec 2009

Agree with 26/27 rebound HIGH, and agree with SPT 1st bottom, suggesting BUY BUY BUY