Saturday, September 04, 2010

WEEKEND thoughts

Observations :
It took 21 tr days to drop from Apr 26 to May24th
spx 1220 to 1040
and 47 tr days to July 2nd at 1010 , and a 210 pt loss.

It also took ONLY 21 days from Apr 26 to May 24th to take out 180 pts
so 210 pts in 21 days is not unheard of.

that was then,
whats next?
there appears to be a possible time acceleration as Spt 3rd to Oct4th is also 21 tr days

If the target level is really spx 900, then price acceleration should also be in evidence.
well in advance of that date.

In other words, what took 48 tr days from Apr26 to July 2nd should now take
21 tr days to take out the same 210 pts

If that is going to work out, then the first drop next week should also be accelerated

I am now focused on a low on Spt10th - late afternoon @ 180bars = 2;30pm

We previously had projected a low on the 9th, but upon further review, we see the 10th has potential as the 11th, a Saturday is a Bradley TURN date, and the readings do get considerably more positive from the 11th to the 20th.

other than the 9th to 10th shift, the other October dates still remain intact
Heres a similar TIME relationship from 2009 & 2010

9/12/09 HIGh was followed by the Extreme low on NOV 20th in 48 tr days
for a loss of 4000 dow pts.
Feb 6th, 2010 high was followed by the March 9th low in 21 tr days
& a loss of 1700 dow pts

the circumstances and wave positions were different then,
but the DAYS still counted out in similar fashion



Joseph said...

Tim Knight closed the last of his short positions yesterday. Thus, if he is as good as many believe then I dont see a low on the 9/10th to 1000.... Not sure what you all think but Tim is a Bear among all Bears... If he closed his shorts makes me think about just going long, hold till end of the yr versus being whip sawed bk & forth and I should be fine...


E said...

"Tim Knight closed the last of his short positions yesterday... Tim is a Bear among all Bears..."

Sounds like Bear capitulation to me. Go short.

Eva S said...

I believe Tim Kight was short most of 2009....

AS said...

Jay - sorry I am confused on what you are expecting ... you mentioned a low on oct 4 .. with accleration to downside from sept 3, but then you are saying till 20th is positive ... can you pls lay this out more simply ...

AS said...

Also, you had mentioned no more low in Oct - low would be sept 1 ... we got a low on aug 31 ... so now what are you seeing that changed your thoughts to more downside ?

Thanks for taking the time to share !!

Jay Strauss said...

either your not keeping up with me or not reading thoroughly.
Everything is laid out for SPT

Jay Strauss said...

I really dont see it either, but the wave counts out that way

Im quite certain we will sell off next but to what extent will be a mystery until we see it

There was QUITE a bit of HYPE last week which it typical of an X wave or intermediate high, just before the whole thing takes a cra-

Does anyone think they will PUMP it up more or GOOD NEWS??

We need to get the NEG sentiment pumping again so the non believers will be jumping ship

Last week's ENERGY PUMP runs out of gas on Monday, and the next energy interaction till Oct4th is geared to empty the tank.

why is it when EVERYTHING LOOKS GREAT, the mkt pulls the plug?
This time is NO Different

{C} waves are SNEAKY & NASTY by NATURE - they appear just when things look great- last week's numbers for example fed the bull to MAJOR resistance at 78% retrace of the recent decline from 1130 to 1040.

If another rally HIGHER is coming in MID SPT, they have still got to sell off next week prior to that possibility

Bradley date is 11th and typical turns come in around the new moon + or - 2 days = 10thFri

the google ads have lots of good mkt info to absorb from varied sources



AS said...

Jay - I followed your next setup for Sept - what I am trying to understand is what changed for you to go from saying that Sept 3-7 woud be the low and there would be no low in Oct .... now you are saying the low will be Oct 4th ...

can u share why you changed your mind ...

AS said...

Jay - if this is based only on EW counts ... then even the most bearish of EW counter have us in a Wave c up not down ...

astro8 said...

astro8 said...

The above link is a 60 min chart of price during the Mercury Rx Mercury moves direct Sept. 12th Mercury likes to fake everyone out. The deep move down now the move up. 70 percent of the time we go no where and price will end within 1% of where we started. look for 1081 to 1060 come the close Sept.10 or at the open Sept 13

Jay Strauss said...

October low was in reference to TYPICAL OCTOBER CRASH which some techs were promoting following a typical August HIGH
BUT that is NOT the case

another fact, NEARLY every MONTH since the March 9th 2009 has had an EARLY MONTH LOW, and High around the 20th, before dropping off end of mnth.

What changed is the ENERGY output from the FIXED star conjunctions Spt 1 to 6th spewed forth positive influences

Just like OCt 1987 had a similar energy event on OCT6th, and we all know what happened after

Jay Strauss said...

thanks for your great comments
excellent questions

The Columbia chart that was posted
DOES show potential for wave C to complete higher as you aptly mentioned.

But it not clear WHATS DIRECTLY AHEAD this week

Since the EARLY month action is a HIGH, then in order to make another high on the 20th as shown by Columbia, we still need
to back off this week

NOW, its NOT written in stone anywhere, YET, that we have NOT already seen the highs of this wave and that the 20th is only a rebound within the next decline

I have mentioned THAT several times

It is ALSO possible that the NEG energy spewing out this month will include a serious decline
thru the 24th, and final low on OCT 4th

Thus leaving OCT in rebound phase
rather than crash mode.

I hope you understand what & why Im discussing various outcomes for SPT, but direction for each leg has not varied, only possible AMPLITUDE

The dates are still OK
10th low
20th high
24th low
29th high
oct4th low

all the above are within the CONTEXT of a {C} wave, or what some Elliotters would prefer to call a 5th wave.

but if you follow my wave count from April26th, IMO, the wave may only need to set back to about a 50% level from the 550 pts gained since Mar 09,2010.

1220- 275 = 945
or 62%
1220- 340 = 880

This might or might NOT be the time for such, but it is a possible outcome for Spt energy

NOTE that we have ALREADY hit the 38% level on JULY2nd at 1010

The other 2 level remain open

thanks for making me put on my thinking cap