Friday, September 03, 2010

SPT 2010 possibility

It certainly looks like 377 & 144 tr days hit a HIGH today
The expected pivot became a high, maybe- lets explore
to see WHATS NEXT.

Will Spt sell off ?

Arms data is on the verge of issuing a sell signal
and today's mkt data should solidify that sell

X wave rebound with lots of HYPE- typical of that type of wave

MY SIMPLE ELLIOTT count - from April26th
1220-1010= 210pts lost on wave {A}

Wave{B} high got to 1130,
and wv {a} LOW of {C} back to 1040
a loss of 90 pts

90 x 78% = 70 + 1040 = 1110 potential
we got to 1105 at 10am, and the ISM data offered a wet blanket

Using the principal of wave equality, CAN we really expect
{C} wave to give back another 210 pts from today's high which would
take the spx to the 900 level

IF this is REALLY going to HAPPEN, IMO, the BEAR must show his fangs
starting Monday.
MY timing model calls for
Spt9th low = wv i of {C}
spt20 high = wv ii of {C}
Spt24 low = wv iii of {C}
Spt30high =wv iv of {C} & turn lower to Oct 4th = wv v of {C}

What level next week would signal the above is really happening?

Using the previous wave, we might get some answers to that question

April26 to May7th on close lost 110 pts -- really close to 55% of 210 total to come
1220 - 1110 = 110 pts = 52.4% actual

If we DO GET such a loss BY the 9th, it would take the spx to the 1000 level
and set the stage for a possible 34% rebound of 38pts to 1040,
which would be typical resistance of wave ii as listed above.
You can do the math for the rest of the wave as above

this takes lots of -------
IN THE FACE OF HAVING misread the END of August


cementzak said...

all i can say is, next time the dow breaks 10k there will be no support for awhile. if you say low on the 9th i say 9315 on the DOW

however it must break 10k again before that can happen


cementzak said...

misread that, low on OCT 4 would give us 9003 on DOW

rrman said...

helge agrees today was high now big down all month I remember last month telling my self if we get back to 1100 short the hell out of it and so i am this is a gift from God

I just went short /6e as much as I can was long from yesterday

AS said...

I think after the high today we will get a pullback, then 1 more higher high next week before we turn ...

Jay Strauss said...

but what makes you think that?
Are we missing something you see that we dont?

good to see you back here
missed your input


Yes- breaking under 10k could start an avalanche, and should.


Abdullah said...

I want to see 9k before end of SEP ... could very well happens.

AS said...

Jay - I went long at 1055 and 1070 and exited the majority 80% of my longs today .... there could still be some upside to 111.08-111.3 early tues .... but I think we are getting ripe for a small pullback ...

I expect the pullback to 1075 or 1090 .... then 1 more push up to exceed the highs we create now ... so we could goto 1115 or 1130 at least ... then will need to see what happens at that high ...

I expect this move up to happen into the opex week ... early next week will be pullback to entice the bears ... if you are short be nimble ... I will be buying the dip for 1 more move up of 3-4%

AS said...

Tired of trying to pick the tops or bottoms ... so trying to go with the trend .... and for now the trend is up !!

First time in many months that I have made some decent money ... I was always trying to find the turn vs go with the flow ... this time it was so easy ...

Remember - the trend is your friend ...

AS said...

The trick is not to predict the turn... rather to see it happen and then jump on it ..

E said...

A glance at the 6 month s&p chart convinces me this is still a bear market. This week's rally on strong seasonality and light volume doesn't change that. And it certainly has gotten the bulls excited and the bears depressed.

However, a rally past the August 9th high at 1129.21 would complete a major head and shoulders bottom, and project the market up past the April 26th high at 1219.80. One more big up day like Wednesday September 1st is all it would take.