Last Day- First Day

Elliott waves are so mixed up, its very hard to get a good reading

Astro still predicts some selling today and a rally First day of 2010

but the rally on Monday comes with a warning
BEWARE PIE IN THE SKY thinking

and thats just what MANY are thinking for 2010- pie in the sky -
Call it extreme exuberance [hmmm]

Historically Jan 6/7 and 22nd are important dates from the last few years,
and it does look like they will be important this year also

AFTER Jan 22nd we could actually get that elongated decline into APRIL6th
please dont ask how low is low- no way to tell- just use fibo for incremental levels

Thanks to ALL my regular contributors and the NEW people for some excellent commentary
Please log in as a follower- its very easy, and leaves no doubt as to your credibility.

HAPPY NEW YEAR TO ONE AND ALL

Jay

January 2010

This is NOT exactly the same as the previous chart.

but it is very similar

minor differences occur in the first week

TODAY, DEc30th has JUPITER SUPPORT until 3;31pm

Things could CHANGE dramatically afterward

Activity index is HOLDING all day at 66- quite low
it was at 33 most of the nite

Jay

January 2010 - adjustments

Heres a CLEAN view of January

NOTE that
2008 fell 1400 points from DEC 28th to Jan 22

NOT TO BE EXPECTED THIS YEAR

however,
we should expect some selling into Jan 6-7th
and
REBOUND high on Jan 22nd

Please dont ask me if it will be a higher high - NO ONE CAN ANSWER THAT

Jay

January 2010 - adjustments

FOLLOW THE BLACK LINE

A cleaner version is in the works, but I thought you might want to see
Jan with a minor adjustment to the first publication

Its NOT clear if Jan 7th will be LOWER than Dec31st, but I tend to think so

Jay

Dec 29th

Start new thread

propensity index which has a one day advance view, ran UP to 3010 from 2994 on the 25th
BUT that rise was not reflected by stock price increases

Now it has DROPPED back to 2996, and we await tomrrow's action

Its really amazing that when I put someones chart ont he blog, some people LOVE IT,
and OTHERS warn me not to do that, even tho I always give them credit for it

and on other blogs, some owners dont want me to mention this blog,
and yet others berated my for NOT mentioning this blog

I guess thats what makes the world tick.

258 bars and 21 hours are the SAME THING which hit at 2:30 nearly exact
and Ive been posting the bar cycles for a while now


the NEXT 21 hours, 258 bar cycle is on Monday Jan 4th at 10am
Will that be a LOW, or will it get truncated on Thursday at 4pm @ 252bars
which has occurred that way in the past.

the ECLIPSE is at 2:14pm Thursday along with 222 bars
note the NOV 2nd low occurred right at the FULL MOON @ 2:10pm

Jay

REMINDER

MERCURY goes RETRO on DEC 26th

SUN 0 PLUTO on the 25th at 12;28 gave support to XMAS day rally

Merc retro in addition to the hard aspects next week including
the eclipse on the 31st will SURPRISE many

Jay

Its JUST a matter of WHEN

As this chart shows, they are making higher highs on less strength

So it really becomes a matter of WHEN, and it looks like its going to be soon

flash has expectations for today

Jay

BREAK OUT or BREAK DOWN ?

Chart from COLUMBIA

One would suppose that a juncture like this we could put money on both sides.
Thus one side will certainly wipe out the other,
but it would still be a profitable trade, unless we get more stalemate through January


CBOE PC ratio
Monday = .67
Tuesday = .60

bearish, but the other pc ratios are mixed

more later
Jay

BOLLINGER bands

chart from JerryO at my Yahoo group

Can they stretch out another day or so??

MY propens index showed the HIGh as of yesterday which we got at 10:30 and again at noon

It also shows another high today POSSIBLY from 11am to 1pm
and this time an afternoon drop off into tomrrow morning lower open.
Some data shows a rebound after tomrrows open

Power index shows bulls still attempting to keep it rising thru the 23rd
with a defined drop on the 24th

Activity index FLAT at 100 all nite and still there at 9:45am


Jay

January 2010

My thanks again to one of our own members who takes my raw data and places
it on a readable chart as above

Heres the Jan 2010 and it looks similar to December

Low first part of month or Dec 31st
high mid month
top out late month

Keep in mind numerological changes occur , generally speaking
5th
14th
23rd

Todays propens index shows a high mid day and drop off later

Jay

Dec 20 preliminary

Power index shows it flat till late in the day
propens index is turning higher as of 12/20 at 1pm, but the complete pic
for Monday wont be available till the morning.

Monday might be shaping up as a sloppy day with 2 cycle pivots converging at 3pm
60bars & 78.6%/13day both at 3pm

FROM THERE, a stronger close would set the stage for Tuesday
which has a midnite high tide to assist a rally

I'm still expecting a PEAK on WED at about 1pm, and my game plan as of now is to short it.

Jay

Dec 18 Bradley

Chart from Columbia

Monday is characterized as a WINNER

so , yes rrman, once the low is set tomrrow on the Bradley date,
we can then expect a solid rebound next week

And so the SEE SAW continues next week when the bulls take over again

12/20 MORE NOW
READ comments
Monday might be shaping up as a sloppy day with 2 cycle pivots converging at 3pm
60bars & 78.6%/13day both at 3pm

FROM THERE, a stronger close would set the stage for Tuesday
which has a midnite high tide to assist a rally

I'm still expecting a PEAK on WED at about 1pm, and my game plan as of now is to short it.

Jay

Dec Chart - ANOTHER VIEW

Chart from ROTROT , a member here & other yahoo groups

Matches my graph also TO SOME DEGREE
As it shows the mkt rolling over int he DEC 21st to 22nd time frame,
then heading for a YEAR END SELL OFF as the other graph has shown
SINCE I first published it earlier this month

I waited till 8:30 and the employ report finally meets with energy waning

Today, similar to Nov 20 should end lower, but the open at 9:45 to 10am might just be the lod

102bars at 10am
61.8%/13 day cycle at 1;43pm could be the pivot to a better close,
but again compare to Nov 20

Another lower open tomrrow could also offer a fair buy opp, but the energy IS WANING
that doesnt mean the bulls wont keep trying to prop up the averages next week

However, as the chart above shows and my graph also shows, along with astro events
we should see a strong sell off on the 24th & 28th
repeating again - the Dec graph makes the case for another dip on the 31st
making it a great place to buy for a very strong open rally on JAN 4th and part of the 5th

more later
Jay

DECEMBER 2009

Lets see how well this adjustment works out

If conforms with Cycle lows and Bradley for the 18th

And the 377 week cycle on Dec 28-31


Let me know If you want to see a January preliminary view

Jay

Waves

So far my natural energy chart compares to this projection

but my scientific data conflicts somewhat

We dont have to get a giant sell off, but its hard to envision holding
within such a narrow range for 8 more days till Xmas

I will report any changes asap

Jay

DECEMBER 2009

As ive been posting - the 14th has potential to cut into the BULLISH trend, but NOT STOP it

Its UNCLEAR whether the 16th will set a lower low or not,
and the 39 hour cycle at 2pm might become the pivot to higher highs by the 22nd- 23rd.

Jay

Dec 2009

Chart from market thoughts - Binve
this is as good an interpretation as anyone else

And fits well into the balance of the month

STILL EXPECTING A STRONG reaction down on the 14th
which might linger thru the new moon on the 16th
BUT

NO CRASHES in Dec or Jan
Pivot lows within recent ranges or slightly lower are possible
Dec 14th & or 16th

HIGHS on Dec 22/23
Start decline on 24th TO Dec 28th & or 31st
BIG open new year rally on 4th and part of 5th
Jan 7 pivot low mid day
From late afternoon on 7th break out of congestion to new recovery highs - Jan 22nd

Jay

Which WAY NOW Mr Elliott wave ?

Chart from Columbia's public pages - go over there and vote positively
Hes got a great collection of charts that update when you refresh

You can label this chart to be bullish or bearish

1106 at 9:45 am was very strong resistance as shown on the last posting
Can they overcome it and go to the next level UP??
after 1106 we can get to 1110-1112

OR if they open DOWN right away, they can rebound back
to unch at that 10:02 moon Jupiter trine

Are we half full or half empty ?

YES we are STILL in DOWN TREND TO MONDAY
waiting for the next 5 wave series to drop to lower support - wave "C"
to either 1071 or 1051 as previously shown
Yeh, I know, weve got lots of non believers
___________________________

After Monday there are very few indications of trouble and an XMAS rally appears eminent
BUT it cant start from here-
theres got to be some kind of shock wave to create NEGATIVE SENTIMENT

And the aspects indicate such is coming.
the weekend has more negative connotations that tomorrow,
& SINCE there is NO time left --
{{{{ sumthin's got to GIVE }}}}}

__________________________________________
AFTER Monday Some are projecting 1150 to 1200 spx
900 pts wre lost
900 x 62% = 560
666 + 560 = 1226
1937 rebound made it to 62.8%

more later
Jay

DOWN TREND

Chart from COLUMBIA - public pages, link from market thoughts

As you might be able to see -IMO- A downtrend started at 1119 mid day on the 4th.

IT now looks like were in a 4th wave FLAT, thus waiting for the last leg to a low on MONDAY

THE MAIN trend is DOWN till Monday at 10:27am

How the market gets there is another story

as we watch the UNDULATIONS which are typical in a declining trend

Dec is NOT a crashing type month, so anyone expecting such will be sadly disappointed

Some one identified 1055 as a potential price level in the comments yesterday,
and I see no reason to negate the possibility

Im counting wave 3 low at 1085.89

1086 had been posted by some technicians as a line in the sand by some techs,
and I see no reason to negate that either

more later
Jay

Waves

Public charts from Columbia - link from market thoughts

triangle of what kind ?

1112 to 1089 = 22 lost
NOT ready to BREAK down yet??
Ok tomrrow gets back to 1101 to 1103

Propens index shows UP from the start, but it could start lower.

Today's low at 9:45 and again at 3pm - very typical

According to the POWER index the BREAK down should take place on the 10th

MY game plan
sold puts at 3pm today
BUY back at 1101 area anytime tomrrow

I will be out of the office till noon tomrrow- hope i dont miss out, but I think 1pm
or 3pm will offer the opp.

Jay

Are we there yet?

IT looks like 1119.34 was as close to 1121 as we are going to get

As you can , Dec calls for some WILD swings
from HERE tot he end of the month

This is not going to be a normal quiet December

One big reason is the 377 week cycle at the end of the month

Bradley dates are
7th was a high
18th should be a high
28th should be a low

Tides are
7th high
13 low
22 high
29 low

Dec 2009 is a blue moon month
DEc 2nd full moon high spx close
but only one full moon eclipse on the 31st, and the reading for that is rather negative
callling for critical conditions & arguments

more later
Jay

Uh OH

Interesting chart from Steven Rock at the Crystal ball forum

Jay

Dec 2009 final revision

This SHOULD be the final revision for December

Just got Charts Edge for this week and it looks very similar

His charts are NOT astro based
so its good to see 2 different systems with the same outlook
and FLASH has ALMOST the same dates as well - see his twitter link on main page

Heres some astro influences for this week
Dec 7th
calls for a challenging start but full steam ahead by days end
Dec 8
call is for stress & money headaches - similar to the 3rd
Dec 9
reading calls for A JARRING START & instability
then drifting along and just like CE charts, might find a low at 2pm - 3pm
Dec 10th
Lay low and recharge - might be able to get ahead
Dec11
Slow & contemplative, better in the AM

more later
Jay

more Helge

Heres another chart from Mr Helge - extended to the 16th

Undulations match the ones on my graph

for example

11/30 low
12/2 hi
12/3 lo
12/4 or 12/7 high - not as clear - see pink line instead of blue gyrations
___________________
then the week after
12/7 or 12/8 low
12/9 or 12/10 hi
12/14 lower LOW as Ive been projecting also
_____________________________
and up from there

Yes its very hard to anticipate every up & down the mkt wants to make ,
otherwise everyone would be privy to catching the waves

sorry it doesnt work that way

1119.13 at 9:45- is that it ??
Jaywiz index was .13 yesterday= VERY BEARISh
and the FIRST such low reading since Oct 22

Arms index at 10;30 = .72 - dont know what it was at 9:45
new highs NOW at 258/1 verses 318/1 on Nov 16th

Next week is Ians projected comparison to 1987 crash week
does that mean anything ??
we'll find out next week


Jay

HELGE

Helge showed this mornings rally well in advance

Obviously he knows things we will never be able to fathom

this agrees with green tide for today which shows the same thing

Jay

DECEMBER 2009

Had to make an adjustment for early December,
based on data that came to light after publishing the original chart

BUT the rest of the month remains the same

Scientific resources indicate a low today

Y -- let us know when to bale out of longs

GREEN TIDE shows rally wont last after first hour
Jay

Dec 2009

IF a new low does come in on the 3rd and or 4th I will have to adjust
the above graph to fit the early part of the month
However,
IT does NOT change the rest of the month.

Jay

Dec 2009

Here's the Dec 2009 chart with dates filled in as provided by one of our own members

With Merc 90 Uranus yesterday right at the 3pm low, we might have seen the lows
with the next highs on Dec7th & 9th as above

Todays High looks good for 9:53am when Venus is 60 Neptune
Money illusions??

the next buying opp should come on Thursday which has some difficult readings

But the strongest day should come on Monday, Dec7th as the above graph shows

Jay