THE FUTURE

THE FUTURE
DO YOU WANT TO SEE THE NEXT BREXIT in ADVANCE ?

Wednesday, December 23, 2009

BREAK OUT or BREAK DOWN ?

Chart from COLUMBIA

One would suppose that a juncture like this we could put money on both sides.
Thus one side will certainly wipe out the other,
but it would still be a profitable trade, unless we get more stalemate through January


CBOE PC ratio
Monday = .67
Tuesday = .60

bearish, but the other pc ratios are mixed

more later
Jay

59 comments:

Anonymous said...

I'm short!!!!!!!!!!!!


ptg

Anonymous said...

faz is looking real good here, financials are super weak

Anonymous said...

little sheeple getting scared to sell.

hahahaha

x

rrman said...

just a gap fill now we rocket back up until this afternoon thens the time to go short

rrman said...

range should be 1110 to 1120 on es we'll see if they think they gathered enough shorts for a squeeze or if they think they have to take it down to 1110 to get em I'm figuring 1120 by 2pm which I want to short

Y said...

21 hour cycle low is in the making here.


y

rrman said...

Jay whats the index showing on the highs and lows for the day....I'm guessing high will be near close

rrman said...

here is the Helge charts Jay references some he shows the drop early in the trading day and shows a top at end of day with a downturn into the 30th
http://www.cyclelt.com/INT.htm

Coy said...

Low 13:28

High 14:49, Low cross 4 minutes later. (Merging cycles)

rrman said...

Thanks Coy

Jay Strauss said...

The 21 hour cycle is NOT complete
at 258 bars UNTIL DEC 24th at 1pm

Mkt closes at 1pm

at the same time we have a
SUN 0 Pluto --offering--
Challenges
poor moods
Money issues surface
Pitfalls, short tempers & agitation
Sounds like a real chitty day to me.

Today so far 156bars hit at 10:30
11am hourly turns up

next bar cycles
180 @ noon
204b@ 2pm
228b@ 4pm,OR open tomrrow

NOT ALL bar cycles make severe pivot lows,
SOME are muted and some non events
BUT if one is missed, then next one usually picks up the slack

Propens index does indicate a low at close today, but tomrrow so far shows it as an UP DAY till at least mid day.
BUT
that goes against some of my other data, so we will see which one wins out.
---------------------------
Power index & Astro indicate lower.
propens indicates higher
----------------------


Jay

Anonymous said...

Long fas!!! market looks too strong...santa rally is here

Reza said...

Long ERX

indigo said...

McHugh noted a small change in the McClellan oscillator from yesterday's session, which means that a big move is coming soon, direction unknown. He suggested that a decisive move above 1120 would be bullish, but stalling at that level isn't (which is where we are now). He's leaning to a 100 point selloff in the Dow soon I think. Indices look like they are in a topping formation to me: negative divergences showing up on RSI, deceleration in wave structure. Looks bearish to me!

ARAK said...

This is unplayable chit .. keeping my gains for the year and going home a happy camper having taken some money out of the Goldman TICK machine.

rrman said...

Coy looks like your 1:38 low wave is arriving lets hope the high wave at
14:49 behaves

Anonymous said...

Simples says keep it simple.

What do we have ?
A Bull Flag.
Pole low 1030
Pole High 1120 = 90pts.

Breakout above 1120 means target of 1210 (1120 + 90).
Probably january.

Simples

Anonymous said...

simples

have you ever been wrong?

sally

Anonymous said...

rrman

i don't see a low

Sally

Anonymous said...

Sally -

Yes , I have been wrong before.
I married a dog.

Simples

rrman said...

Sally was that lil dip around 1pm wasnt a daily low just a low that Coy had on his indicator

rrman said...

GS and Fdx arent participating in this lil rally looks like we peak this afternoon and I will go short

Anonymous said...

rrman, simples

oh ok thanks.

sally

Coy said...

Inversion today. I hate it when that happens.

rrman said...

what do you mean Coy?

rrman said...

Jay if we hit 1120 on es you going more in on shorts with me?

cHeRyl said...

EW count shows a beautiful 5 wave impulsive move down from this morning's highs (A wave), followed by a corrective zig zag B wave up. An impulsive C wave down would be the next logical step - maybe tomorrow.

Coy said...

rrman,

We can call the 13:28 wrong.

We're probably advancing to the 14:49 high.

rrman said...

Cherl thats what Helge shows down in AH gap down at open down to say midday then rally tommorrow into the close and more up ah but then down around europe open
http://www.cyclelt.com/INT.htm

Coy said...

I'm getting hints that the short day tomorrow could be a triple digit up day, making all trading days of the week, up.

You can't beat Government Sachs and the PPT machine "doing God's work".

cHeRyl said...

Thanks for the link to Helge's charts rrman! I've been trying to decipher them. I notice he has 22 Dec as a trigger cycle date, which I did also note as significant earlier because a lot of cycles squared on that date. But I'm wondering whether he means that a reversal happens AFTER that date or on that date?? He says that "trigger cycles normally cause reversals or accelerations." Any thoughts?

cHeRyl said...

Could be an acceleration of the rally, if Coy is right!

rrman said...

If you look at the top chart the daily he shows today as the turn date down

cHeRyl said...

True. Chart 6 is interesting too. I notice that on the 2nd panel where there was some kind of inversion (16 and 23rd Nov during a down cycle, both of which were actually strong up days), SPX was actually 2 days away from a sharp selloff. We're now in another down cycle, with 14 and 21/12 given as the dates. Since 14/12 was also 2 days away from a selloff, perhaps today is also the last up day before a selloff on Thursday.

rrman said...

well eur/jpy is still rallying so looks like they may push it up in the next hour or so 1108 is the highest i see it getting with the time but who knows

rrman said...

GS and FDX and FAS still not doing much this is es pump maybe the top for a few days

rrman said...

ok closed longs and went short 1116.25 15" chart down we're done today

Anonymous said...

gap UP !

tim

Anonymous said...

JAY

Are we there yet?

Are you short now or do we gap-up tomorrow morning and rally into the close?

mark

rrman said...

Helge was right on with today he says gap down then rally to close tommorrow maybe a dip right before close

Anonymous said...

Nice close for the bulls and light volume half day tomorrow. Looks like we float higher again tomorrow imo


x

rrman said...

gotta love how they are running the stops in the futes since the close now at 1117 before they take it down into the morning....

Anonymous said...

1135 here we come. A new rally has just begun.

sam

Anonymous said...

Look at the following chart and you'll see where we're heading. Multi week rally probably just started. We may not go down til mid January or later.

http://chart.ly/a3yckv

Anonymous said...

Only Scrooge would short the Santa Clause rally on Thursday!!!

Anonymous said...

rrman and other bears are getting pistol whipped by golmansucks again.

ptg

Anonymous said...

My 3 SPX scenarios


http://www.traders-talk.com/mb2/index.php?s=1e81950939c309d220028078a2a9f96e&showtopic=114473


nicolasillo

Anonymous said...

christmas is a roman catholic pagan evil holiday.

It is a tradition of greedy men.

One day christmas will be abolished as a holiday and so will it's authors.

Ian

rrman said...

wow 1119 is the best they could do with no volume and now thats coming down on the day before Christmas....
oh my

Anonymous said...

rrman

no way you're taking a profit today. You should be Long and Strong not short.

You're going to get squeeeeezed today and I'm going to take your money. How do you like them apples.

phil

rrman said...

well Phil we'll see i'm short from 1116 and very comfortable with it in fact i will short more after the open if we don't drop below 1116

Anonymous said...

rrman

first of all, I don't like you.

second of all, Vo;ume don't mean anything. Benny and Goldy are going to step in and buy up the market at 9:45.

you better cover now.

phil

rrman said...

LOL Phil sorry you don't like me not sure why but I was long yesterday on the futures and now i'm short doesnt matter to me not married to either side but this will not be a up day....

Anonymous said...

oh yeah! We'll see who's right. You think you're god's gift to traders. Well I think you're full of it. I'm going to squeeze you and wipe that smug grin off your face.
It's christmas time and the last shopping day. Obama wants everyone to be happy today.
So don't be a rascist pig and buy long!

Look futures are going up now.

phil

rrman said...

LOL Merry Christmas Phil

Anonymous said...

JAY!

Tell rrman we're going up today.

phil

Anonymous said...

I would reccommend all shorts close positions as we head up to 1300 in March.

The last thing you want is to be caught in a massive squeezey.

Once 1121 goes , 1220 is next.
Bull Flag breakout. ya.

Simples

Reza said...

Simple,

Question for you. Remember in 2008, S&P in January never made to the 2007 high. Thinking that way I have a feeling that 1100 and under, this is the last time we see for 2010. Rally to 1300, then slowly to 1200 at year end.

reddragonleo said...

Merry Christmas to you Jay, and to all your followers.