Sunday, December 13, 2009

Dec 2009

Chart from market thoughts - Binve
this is as good an interpretation as anyone else

And fits well into the balance of the month

STILL EXPECTING A STRONG reaction down on the 14th
which might linger thru the new moon on the 16th

NO CRASHES in Dec or Jan
Pivot lows within recent ranges or slightly lower are possible
Dec 14th & or 16th

HIGHS on Dec 22/23
Start decline on 24th TO Dec 28th & or 31st
BIG open new year rally on 4th and part of 5th
Jan 7 pivot low mid day
From late afternoon on 7th break out of congestion to new recovery highs - Jan 22nd



Jay Strauss said...

Thanks # 84 for signing in as a member

We might get to 100 by year end

And thanks for the GREAT comments
we have a diversity of opinion about WHATS NEXT

and rightly so

We are not going to CRASH in DEC
NEVER DOES, and we are not going to break out in DEc either

IMO< the break out from this ELIPSE and congestion should occur from the Jan 7th MID DAY pivot low
or it actually might LOOK LIKE
DEc31st PIVOT LOW when viewed later on the charts.


Anonymous said...

This weekend I had an emergency conversation with Dave Skarica of about gold. A lot of people have been getting scared, because of the recent drop in gold and others are getting extremely bearish. Both of us received an email referencing an article using "wave counts" to predict a gold collapse to under $650 an ounce yesterday.

Both of us though think that we are either at or close to a bottom in gold. In fact I even increased my overall gold stock position last week.

We also think the broad market is likely to go higher. In fact I think we could very well see the breakout above 1110 on the S&P 500 occur this week. This is why I'm calling this an "emergency talk." - most people are afraid to buy gold or asleep when it comes to the potential rally in the broad market so I thought it important to reach you this weekend to wake you up!

I'm going to talk about two sectors that I think are poised to break out of stage one bases and lead the market over the next four weeks tomorrow in a WSW Power Investor premium members article.

But I wanted to share this phone conversation I taped for you today before the market opens again on Monday.


indigo said...

Thanks for your thoughts Jay, you rock! 2 questions for you:
1) when you say "pivot low", does that refer to a day when there is a breakout rally from a low?
2) Flash has been referring to an 18 year cycle low in 2010. Do you know when that is? And does that mean that stocks will crash into that low some time next year, say after a huge rally that takes us to 1160 - 1200 maybe?
Thanks so much for your time!

Linton said...


You don't see SPX going down to 1070+ or 1050+ in a wave C down on the 14th or 15th already?

to said...

The market on friday closed right below the controlling tl which last week was at SPY 111.24 and this week will come in at SPY 110.73. The opening on Monday will be telling for the direction of the remainder of the week.

Any downside for the market is going to have to come soon as the opening of the $NDX for the month indicates it will close higher than 1767.18

The Generals of the market (AAPL & GS) continue to give give previews for the broad indices. My numbers show a 97.3% chance of AAPL printing 183.6 this week. This is a extremely rare occurrence.

The dollar closed right on my number of UUP 22.68 on friday so again monday's opening will be extremely telling.

Oil closed right on its 6/11/2009 tl.

The rhythm of the market is likely to change drastically soon. As most people can observe accumulation/distribution from a mile away. It's likely to shift to a fast paced uni-directional market as the market has trained computers and people to flip their positions every 10 minutes for the last month.

to said...

forgot to say to all those with eagle eyes you noticed the close of the $DJI on friday co-relational to Dec. 1

Dec. 1: 10,471.58
Dec. 11: 10,471.50

I'm sure it just a coincidence...

Kanika said...

Looks incresingly likely that we are in the third and last zigzag since 1029.38 low of November 2nd and started C of that zigzag from December 9 low.

The likely target is either C=A or C = .618xA in 1170-1138 range

A of 3d ZigZag 1029.38 1113.69 84.31
B 1113.69 1085.89 -27.8 33.0%
C 1085.89 1170.20 84.31 100.0% of A
C alt 1085.89 1137.99 52.10 61.8% of A

The 1138 can take place something like this

[i] of C 1085.89 1108.50 22.61
[ii] of C 1108.50 1097.20 -11.30 50.0% of [i]
[iii] of C 1097.20 1133.78 36.58 161.8% of [i]
[iv] of C 1133.78 1115.49 -18.29 50.0% of [iii]
[v] of C 1115.49 1138.10 22.61 100.0% of [i]

A lower target, with an ending triangle, just above prior hi of 1019 and at 50% retrace of P1 can not be ruled out

[i] of C 1085.89 1108.50 22.61
[ii] of C 1108.50 1094.53 -13.97 61.8% of [i]
[iii] of C 1094.53 1114.57 20.05 88.7% of [i]
[iv] of C 1114.57 1102.18 -12.39 61.8% of [iii]
[v] of C 1102.18 1122.23 20.05 88.7% of [iii]

IF C=A in time, we are talking of a final top a couple of days before Christmas. At this time, I do not see how this can be stretched much beyond that timeframe.

I will cover shorts in a decline early next week and wait for five waves up to reestablish shorts.

Anonymous said...

A must read Barrons article.

spx 1250 by mid january.


Jay Strauss said...

thanks people
GREAT info - lets see IF I can respond to some of you with the same clarity.

Mike- GOLD has taken a NOSE dice, and the dollar has made a nice advance - BUT STOCKS have NOT BUDGED
Monday is STILL MY DAY for recognition
GOLD might have a bit more to sell off, but yes sentiment is getting very negative.

It doesnt have to be a breakout from a LOW- just making a pivot LOW which means an upturn is imminent either the same day or next day.

For example
DEc 31st should hit its LOWS at 2;14 PM just like NOV 2nd FULL MOON LOW at the same time
BUT there is also another minor drag on us at 4pm which could keep
it down till close - No guarantee

However, Jan 4th SHOULD OPEN UP gangbusters and the 5th should follow thru till about 11am to noon

As far as an 18 year LOW next year, I can only do the math like anyone else = 1992
I think Arch has pinpointed late July and early August as one of the most detrimental time periods with a grouping of seriously negative aspects.

I would truly LIKE to see spx 1070
and Ive posted the math for that which makes fibo logic, but we only have till WEd the 16th to accomplish that mission - I dont know if it can be done.
TO, the stage is SET for tomrrow
and IT might look like a crash, but???

thanks for picking up where
Ravi left off; WE have only seen minimal posts from his elliott wave and math knowledge- yuo are picking up the slack- thanks

1070 low is a viable target
as is 1140- 1150 area for DEc 22nd- 23rd

24th turns Quite negative and clusters into the 28th just as FLash has indicated using other

See new chart