Thursday, December 10, 2009


Chart from COLUMBIA - public pages, link from market thoughts

As you might be able to see -IMO- A downtrend started at 1119 mid day on the 4th.

IT now looks like were in a 4th wave FLAT, thus waiting for the last leg to a low on MONDAY

THE MAIN trend is DOWN till Monday at 10:27am

How the market gets there is another story

as we watch the UNDULATIONS which are typical in a declining trend

Dec is NOT a crashing type month, so anyone expecting such will be sadly disappointed

Some one identified 1055 as a potential price level in the comments yesterday,
and I see no reason to negate the possibility

Im counting wave 3 low at 1085.89

1086 had been posted by some technicians as a line in the sand by some techs,
and I see no reason to negate that either

more later


Jay Strauss said...

See Helge's intraday cycles

shows a LOW on the 14th followed by a sizeable rebound

link from my main page

Jay Strauss said...

thanks for logging in as a follower

It also ads to your own credibility
when making comments

Thus I welcome anyone else now posting as ANON to also log in as a follower thus becoming a member

Its great for my ego [g]


AS said...

Jay - can you share more info on intraday timing for today ....

Anonymous said...

jay,i reckon we're just finishing minute wave1 up of 5 of thinking about 1107-8 around 10:15 followed by wave 2 down to around 1090-92 either today or up and strong rally monday onwards.what do you think of that possibility? if i knew how to post charts i could explain it a bit better but im sure you get the gist.

Jay Strauss said...

Lets look at the mkt as a correction against an UPTREND
which still has a higher level to achieve above 1121 on or about Dec 18-22

Having said that - where are we NOW?

1119 high
1086 low
call it wave A

Now in WAVE B or X as an intervening wave against the short term downtrend into DEC14th.
WHICH, of course would be labeled as wave "C"

1106.43 = 61.8% retrace and we are right there now at today's open & of course 9:45am

Bar cycle timing today
228 @ 10am
258@ 12:30
30b @ 2:30

39hrs at 10am conflicts with the bar cycle, so one of them might shift somewhat.

propens index did rise off DEc8th low, but has not moved higher since mid day 12/8, 2957 to 3004 and has actually backed off just a little to 2999,
but not dramatically, YET.

9:45 might be the hod today thus leading to a lower close, and not just because i got short yesterday
got to go, adding more shorts


take a look at ALHPHORN's charts
shows potential for

Jay Strauss said...

Fibo at work

1119 - 1086 = 33 -34
1086 to 1106 = 20 -21

Wave equality
1106 - 34 = 1072
which is a level that has support
1106 - 55 = 1051

the other support level

Watching & waiting now

Reza said...


Any updates for us


Anonymous said...

wave 5 off yesterday's Low underway.


Anonymous said...

This is wave 5 of 1 folks. This is going much higher. Bottom is in. Screw the others.


samamehta said...

If 5 of 1 Mr. X, what do you see W2 pullback to ? thanks,
I agree big up move coming

AS said...

Sam - what are you seeing - can you elaborate on timeframes / tgts ?

samamehta said...

Targets I hear from very good ew and SC expert is 1158-1198 spx by dec 15 26. that should be the top for next two years

alternate scenario i have heard is we see 1250 in spring but 900 first. let us see what happens

samamehta said...

w 5 of 1 should end around 1107-1108 spx cash. if 1108 is passed look for 1112

AS said...

Thanks for sharing Sam ... what are W2 targets ... I think we will reach 1112 today ...

Jay - does that change your forecast ?

Sam - can you share who is this person EW expert ?

AS said...

Or maybe tomm am ... as ther eare only 45 min left today ...

samamehta said...

w2 target 1089 -1092

Anonymous said...



What is Flashfusion saying today. His terse comments sound cryptic again.

Sam, could you interpret Flash for me seeing you speak with him?



ARAK said...

Flash says short ramp into Dec 21/22 after Fed meeting

samamehta said...

sunny, our IT people have restrcited the use twitter. I will have to go home and check.

yesterday I read tat it would be foolhardy to be buying into next week.

It may mean, be cautious if MKt goes up do not get lured into buying for LT. In this mkt everything is ST. Hit and run.

swing trade has not done much as the range is small.