Another view

heres a chart from Paco Santiago at his blog.

He's got the main low @ April26th and its upup and away from there

thats the MAYBE view I mentioned b4.

goes in opposition to bradley, but thats not an unusual scenario

Jay

Some are considering the spx-vix a sell signal

Vix now at 20.37 banging on the gap and horizontal axis.

seems to support my projections for a May6th dip to major support

Jay

making sense of the puzzle

Got lots of data, but need to put into words so it all makes sense as far as timing

Where are we now, and where are we going as opposed to where we came from.
Oct 9-10th, 2007: is the main pivot

from there we count
55 trade days = Dec 27th- was a high which lead to the jan 23rd low right at 72 tr days
110 tr days = March 17th, and it was a low
165 tr days = June7th - it is shown as a high on the Bradley graph- i have no reason to doubt it.
220 tr days = Aug 26th - is equal to 29 cycles of 8

Stan Harley discovered that 377 tr days and variables of it are most prominent.
377 X 38.2 = 144 tr days = May6th also a Bradley date shown as a LOW
377x 61.8= 233 tr days = Spt 12th shown as a bradley low

We can see that May6th a potential low leads to june7th a potential high
As per bradley for now, we see it slide from June7th all the way to Spt 9th.

Go back a minute to Harleys 215.4 week cycle hitting a low on March 17th; Does that infer we go on auto pilot to new highs?? maybe, or maybe not
heres a maybe not
March 17th was 110 trade days from Oct9th
June7th is 165 tr days
It is my proposal that the March 17th low will lead to a June7th high in the spx 1400 area.
In the meantime we will see trading in the range between spx1281 & 1367 which we just saw yesterday, as well as on 3 previous occasions. feb 1- feb 27- april7, and now

SO, now that we are at the top of the range , WHEN is 1281- the bottom of it going to be seen again. Since all we have left is 7 weeks or 35tr days till June7th, its probably going to split the difference with a 17 and 34 day cycle = May 6th- whooaah, we just identifed May6th as a bradley date and 144 tr days from oct9th - ahaha, the light dawns suddenly.

what about next week? how does that fit in??
WE got a 17/34 tr day high on April16th, and tide day

Now we get next week
a grouping of hard aspects on 23 & 24th
an 8 day cycle on the 23rd and turn day on the 24th
Bradley date on 22nd, might be pivotal high
Apr 23 = 55 tr from Feb 1st a high- a potential cycle low
Apr24 = 34 tr days from March 10, ditto
26th is tide day- no effect?

heres another progression that fits in nicley
the 8 day cycles
April-11 low & 14th turn to the 16th pivot high-
notice please the spx made a lower high after a lower low on March 17th

April23 proposed low and 24th turn
may 5 low and 6th turn
June9 th and 10th turn

give a little wiggle room for slight differences on exact dates

So we can see the progression of time and we need to fit in price as we approach the main gate on june7th. If all goes as projected, june7th should end the sideways progression of wave 2 and start wave 3 down to Spt 9th.

Best Wishes to all
Jay

More good news

looks like one more day of good news today

spx looks prime to test resistence at 1343 at least at the open.
what happens after seem to be a waning of spirit.

the roller coaster ride should take a dip into the 18th
run higher into the 22nd, and make another dip into the 25th

Jay

Sell Signals

Today closed with technical sell signals
oex pc ratio = .77 & yesterday was .80
CBOE pc ratio = 1.06 = neutral
spx 500 pc ratio = 1.33 = neutral
Jaywiz index = .30 & yesterday was .18

Spx got up to 1338 at the open, then hit the low at 1324 @ 11:30 right on the 329 bar cycle
then played all day within a smaller range.

Tomorrow has the potential to open with the other shoe falling.

18th is the bradley date and inverted from the graph indicates a low

Best Wishes
Jay

April15th

today has UP written all over it.

SPX Survived yesterday's test of 1327, a couple times, and now we are looking higher to run up to possible high @ 1343

Resistence is at the former support at 1343, and any touch of that level today would be a great selling opp

Good news about J&J coming at the right time as far as market timing- Delta merger and PPI all helping the positive
But the other shoe could fall tomorrow

Sun 0 Merc in Aries as far as astro goes seems to be providing support, as idnicated by the news items above,but it is exact @ 2am tomorrow morning

Having noted all the above what do we do next? Good Question !

Jaywiz Index =.18 and the 5day has dropped to 29.2 from a high on Apr 1st of 38.9
this should be deemed as bearish
Apr 14th was a turn date, but not neccessily a change in trend date.

The bradley date is still the 18th and it falls one day b4 the full moon which is the first to occur
after the March solstice and Ive been told it should be deemed as bearish.

1328 to 1343 is = to dow 120 and that would be a nice openning.
Can they get higher?
Possibly by noon If i look at WCA and or Charts edge or all day if I look at the SUn 0 Merc
If they get above 1343 by 10;10 am, then the next level is 1347, then 1351, but i really dont think it will happen.

This is getting too wordy and repetetive

Best Wishes
Jay

to buy or not to buy

As you may have read, i was considering buying call son a lower open tomorrow;

Since I probably wont get the chance to buy on a lower open, I wont buy at all and thats for 2 reasons

1. as mentioned already
2 . 3 sources are leading me to now look for a selling opp at 10 am on tuesday which should be more lucrative than scalping a few points on a meager 100pt dow rally
3. Now expecting most of the 15th & all off 16th to be DOWN and the next 2 spx 31.25 pt levels are 1312, then 1281.


Best Wishes

The number 32 for time and price

Not only can I count divisions of time in segments of 32, but we can also count segments of price

Murrey math uses 31.25, and I mentioned price levels a few days ago

The SPX for example dropped to 1343 friday in the first hour and it found no buyers, so the next major level would have set it down to 1312 or somewhare in between. When it got to be 3;30pm, and the spx found support at 1331, that was it. HOW, you ask? watch this

1343- 4= 1339- 4= 1335-4 = 1331 bingo
or 1343 - 12 = 1331- bingo
12 is obviously 3x4 as shown

Ive been intorduced to Murrey math of which I had heard mentioned but never paid much attention to it b4.
The best i can get out of it is a progression of price levels that is prominent throughout history
1.95 , 3.90, 7.80 ,, 15.65,, 31.25, 62.50 ,, 125.00,,
In case you ddint notice, its a doubling feature
When I round it off for trading it becomes 4 spx and 8 spx points , but you can use the exact levels as suscribed by the founder.

Ive mentioned Stan Harley, another great analsyst and mathemetician who introduced me to
the daily bar cycles. he has also been the founder of the 215.6 weekly cycles , which may have rolled over and started a new trend this week.

Ive also menioned the Armstrong 8.6 year cycle which was supposed to hit on march 22nd and it may have done just that starting a new downtrend as of that date, or accelerating one in progress that began oct10th, 2007.

there was also the 500 calendar day cycle that hit a high on April1st and double topped on April7th.
I had mentioned spx 1400/1410 as major resistence, but it would appear that break was the straw that broke the camels back and it mybe some months b4 we see that level again.

I am still in the camp for a Nov 4th LOW, nothing to do with elections, just the cycle events culminate on that date.
Oct10- 2007 PLUS 144 trade days = may6th, but more imortant is 288 trade days falls on Nov 10th.

Lets come back to next week. I know thats what you want to read, even tho the other stuff is good reading, but it wont help us make any$$;

Im hoping the spx opens - 4pts to the next level to give me an opp to buy some calls
for a rally into Midday Tuesday where I would buy puts expecting a lower market on the 16th and 17th. Any rally till 1pm on the 18th will probably not hold.
Option week which usually trends in favor of the calls looks like its set against them this week.

I did mention April22nd as the 32 day segment high, but it would appear a lower high and lower lows should follow thru at least July 13th.

April22nd high +32= June 9th high + 32 = July 25th high
You can take it out as far as you want.

Best Wishes for next week
Jay

32 day segments

I think Im going to concentrate on 32 day segments
This one for example started on march 10th and ends on April22nd

March 10th was a low at dow 11,740, but where April22nd ends should be less than spx1400
Since Mrch 17th we have seen only 3 wave movements from highs to lows, thus leading me to suspect we are in a corrective rebound AGAINST the major downtrend that began Oct10th 2007.

Ok, back to present;
Todays down day which i had been calling for all week is hitting right on schedule as the 55 tr day from jan 23rd. 56 tr days is division of 8 x7 = 56 which means monday could possibly open down in the first 10 minutes only to recover and move sharply higher for the day & into mid day on Tuesday.

The bradley date ive mentioned a few times was supposed to be a low on April7th, but it was a high, and most of the bradley dates this year have been inverted to the graphs that are typically published- SO what you ask?
The next date is April18th, and According to my work, it will be a low, and thus the inversions are still working.

However, what about April 22nd?
thats where astro becomes helpfull as there is a harmonic clster of trines leading up to the morning of April22nd and or the morning of april23rd which is the 8 day segment and turn.

I hoope this makes things as clear for you as it for me;
If not please let me know, and I will explore further.
thanks
Best Wishes
jay

Time progression

In case you hadnt noticeced this;

march 5th 2007 = Low 12,050
Add 32 days
April20th, 2007 = Hi 12,961
Add 32 days
to June4th =13,676 high
Add 32 days
July 19 hi @ 14k
OK, now lets skip over to Dec 6th, 2007 a Hgh
Add 32 days
jan 23rd a low
add 32 days
march 10th, a low
add 32 days
april22nd a posible high
add 32 days
June 7th a possible high
Thats as far as i went, but you get the jist
In between some of those datesthere are dates such as April7th which was a low and May 27th is suspect of being a low before a runup into jun7th.
Note that 32 is a clean division of 8
very strong 8 day cycles evident throughout history.

Hope this clears up some mystery of stock movment

Best Wishes
Jay

55 trade day low

FRIDAY April11th is the 55 trade day low and is also 8 trade day segment from the high on April-1.

That puts the day in contention to make a low at lest in the spx 1318 range if not lower.

is 9:15 am on Thursday, and it does not look ominous at this time, but that can change.

If it goes as detailed, then Monday should be an up day with Tuesday somewhat flat, and then the 34 tr day event hits on the 16th which should be a lesser event than tomorrow.

best Wishes
Jay

Much ado about nothing

So far we have nothing interesting to add to my report

Todays Jawiz Index is a .30, same as yesterday
the reading for tomorrow indicates a strong open but changes later in the day

Whats that mean? the 22 day stint from March 10th low should attemtp to move up, but should end flat to lower.

That means the 11th is indicating a lower low, and the tides are inverted as they have been for about a month.

Monday Apr14 reading indicating strong upside day, but could set the stage for a decline the rest of that week.

Best Wishes
Jay

Dilemma

April10th is 22 trada days from March 10th and is suspected by some to be a short term low.

Geez, the spx hasnt even cracked its first support level of 1343, and that means tomorrow would have to be a wildly lower day breaking that suport and heading toward 1312, the next 1/8 level.

The bradley dates are shown as April 7th with a direct line to April-18th with no change in direction in between. Well How is that going to happen if tomorrow makes a short term low??

Readings for Friday call for a difficult day and the high tide doesnt occur till midnite, so it might NOT have any effect on the day's trading.

Friday is 55 tr days from Jan 23rd intraday lows

Wed April16 is 17&34 trade days and should provide a low, but the readings for the 14th and 15th are quite positive, so how does that fit in with the bradley as mentioned above?/

SO, now you see the dilemma.

bradley says down all the way to 18th, but other data says no way.

Best Wishes
Jay

April 7th turn

That was enuf to set the next day to down

Using the fib ratios we can expect a minum of 46 spx points to a max of 74pts loss on or before the 10th.

Thats only if the wave is making a "b" wave against the 2nd wave retracement to 1400/1410 by April22nd.

IF by some chance wave 2 is finished , then the drop could be more substantial, and might even test the previous low, but we will have to watch and see what we get the next 3 days.

Best Wishes
Jay

March 2000 verses 2008

It was beginning to look erie how similar the 2000/2008 dates were falling into line, but that does NOT appear to be the case.

As of this moment in time its 12:45 on the 7th, and the spx is attemtpting to break out above 1385, but I dont think there will be enuf volume to carry it any higher

A quick look at the market from oct10th, 2007 shows pretty much where we could be in Elliott wave terms.
I know ive mentioned this b4, but its worth revisiting.
March 17th does look like the spx at 1263 intraday did make a low of wave 1
Therefore we can only surmise that we are in a wave 2 retracement which could make it as high as 1410 where there is major - major resistence, not that they have to do that, but its out there.

Still got April10-11 on my radar for a low this week which we could guess should fit the bill for a wave "b" low giving today as wave the 'a' high- this is all educated guesswork until it actually happens. this is an 8 day cluster of low & turn dates.

Take 1382 - 1263 = 120 pts, and again thats 38.2% of the 300 pt loss from Oct10 to March 17th.
120pts X 38.2% = 46 = 1336
120 x 50% = 60 = 1322
120 pts x 62%= 74 = 1308
these are valid FIBO relationships to the levels and we have seem them all b4 in the rebound from minuette wave 3 on jan 23rd to spx1395 of minor1.



The next 8 days cycle cluster is then on April23/24th, but the actual high might occur on the 22nd.
What I think we are seeing is the formation of a three month tripple top after the Jan 23rd
lows. OR the formation of an ABC rebound from March 17th. IF april22nd does offer the "c" wave high at 1400/1410, then the next move AFTERWARD should start wave 3 down to its major objective lows by May 28th.

Best for Now
Jay

April 2008

that chart did not show how vulnerable April is to a major brief decline.
However, we now see April 8th as a potential Bradley High thus leading to the next Bradley date of April27th as a low.
Now shown on most charts is an up blip from the 8th to an unposted date, which in my outlook is targetted as April22nd, and should be a high.

March had 3 dates as well- 8th -18th &26th

We now know which ones were inverted as shown and not exact
March 10th was a low, not the 8th as a high
March 17 was a low, not the 18th
march 26 as a high became march 24th, then marched higher to April 1st, now closer to April8th expecting today April7th to be the high date.

So whats next?
Heres my dates
April10, and or 11th should mark a 55 tr day low
Arpil22nd should turn in a high
April27th should show up as a low, but May 28th should be a much more important low

best for now
Jay

April 2000

Pictures speak volumes

Heres a shot of gold parabolic just like the 1980 highs, and you can easily see what followed that first high @ the 850 level.

Are we going to see the same thing until 2020 or are the fundamentals different for the drive up this time?

This time we world wide expasnion, especially in China, India, and other nations buying up gold, so its more spread out than before. however, the 378 months that it took for 1976 to now is way over due for a lengthy correction. Any fibo part of 377 x38.2% = 144 months =12 years, or any other part.

Since the 2 waves are so similar, we could extrapolate time from the previous wave to see where lows might occur so we can be ready to buy.

Jay

Warning FLAG is posted

I wont go into all the reasons why there is a potential for a 10% drop next week, but its out there

From the March 10th low, it does appear the ELLiott wave may have done a 3-3-5 to April-1st high.

If so, then the next wave is a serious decline starting the next downard phase this year.
Most prominent dates for low are April-11th & May 6th

I did mention May 6th b4, but here it is again
its 18 cycles of 8 trade days from oct10-11th last year;
that may not be anywhere near the end of it either.

take a look at April2000 and you will see how the current market looks just like it did then.
Also look at 2001which looks even more similar to 2008, getting ready to take the spring time collapse seriously;

If you think for one minute, the market cares about when the FED has done to prevent further declines, you are sadly mistaken.

Remember when I posted a GOLD TOP, within 3 days the POG fell nearly $100, and is now trading under $900 with a lot lower levels to come. The current rise from 255 to 1015 emulates the rise in 1980 to the first high of 850, and it took 18 years to sort that out at the 1999/2000 low.

329 bar cycle on April2nd @ 3pm
30 B cycle @ 11am on Apr3rd
102 bar cycle on April4th @ 10:30 was right on target
NOW expecting
126 B @ 12;30
156b @3pm or 160B @ 3;30- hard to know which is viable.

Fascinating that the May28th date is 22 x 8 = 176 tr days and is the Bradley date.

best for now
Jay

Jaywiz Index = .16

the jaywiz index speaks loudly today

Other tech data indicates a down day today

90 bars hits @ open tomorrow
might be a low for the day, but I think it might last a little longer- maybe noon

Bradley date of 8th now looking like a low, but April11th still has a spot on my radar

Best for now
Jay

CNBC

When CNBC and its pundits are calling a bottom, you can be sure its not one.
No disrespect meant to those who work in the media, they get caught up in the hype.

April11th is a target date that many have proposed as either an important high or low.

Yesterday went up a little further than I would have thought, but it changes nothing.
A bottom of importance will only be seen when the media is crying out- NO BOTTOM Yet!!

It still looks like wave 1 on march 10th, Wave 2 may have completed yesterday, or call it an X or B wave. In either case, the next wave should take the dow well below the March 10th low of 11,740.

those who point toward April11th as a high are forgetting options week right after which for the most part is usually a positive week, but thats not the main reason why.

JaywizIndex = .25 following a .37 yesterday indicating some weakenss today; Other scientific data also indicates lower this week thru mid day on Friday for now.

Best Wishes
Jay

When to buy puts

As of this writing, its noon on March 31st and the spx is at 1324, and should close at or near 1330

If that does go according to plan, then Im a buyer of puts on the openning rally on April 1st
happy Fools day
Amazing, How appropriate can you get.

Best for now
Jay

Time & dates

watch this

Oct10 + 72 tr days = Jan 23 = a low

Oct10 + 18 cycles of 8 = 144 tr days = May6th which should be a low equal in importance to Jan 23rd.

Dec 6th, 2007 was 5 cycles of 8 = 40 tr days & the market began to deteriorate to the Jan 23rd LOW

April 2nd = 15 cycles of 8 = 120 days leading to a marked deterioration of prices ending on the May6th date

Jay

No Hurry to go anywhere

I could be wrong, but it looks like as long as the spx holds above 1321, the next rebound on March 31st, and April1st will once again attempt to break out above 1355.
WILL IT DO IT??
My work indicates a NO GO;

In fact, Arpil should be the month to break SUPPORT at 1270, not resistence @ 1355.

A few dates have become important
Arpil 2nd = the 8 day TURN, and since Apr 1st is a high, then its a DOWNTURN to the new moon on Saturday.
8th-9th next high
Huge drop on 10&11
Option week should rebound vogorously starting on the 14th.

heres some interesting Fibo dates
Oct 10 + 55 trade days = 12/27, a secondary high
Oct10 + 89 tr days = Feb 14th, a bradley high
Oct 10 + 144 tr days = May 6th still to come, but looks like it should be a low
Oct10 + 288 tr days = Nov 10, which has been my suspected low all along,& thats NOTHING to do with elections.

Its possible to get a short break today or tomrrow at the open to 1321, and that would setup a very short term buy opp, but once gain 1355 would be froming a possible tripple top at that level.

Best for now
Jay

March 27th

Jaywiz index = .16 AND the OEX pc ratio = .78
Just those 2 ratios alone would send out the red flag for tomorrrow

Spx held 1335, but that wont work for tomorrow, so look for the next level @ 1321

Best
Jay

What next ?

Sometimes its neccessary to stop and take a break in order to gather data and put thoughts in place.

Few things come to light

OBV on a 3& 6 month chart for the dow& spx is WAY off - thus indicating internal weakness.
Bradley TURN date of March26th seems right on target.
8day cycle hits again on April1st and 2nd

On April 2nd Pluto goes retro and squares Mercury- according to those who know- this is a bad combo and should show its effects on traders with selling pressure on stock prices.

The next bradley date is Arpil8th and is shown as a low, but My guess is it will be a high

IF April 2nd makes a lower low than spx 1262, it sets the stage for a complete break down on April9th & 10th, leading to a low on the next bradley date of April 27th, a Sunday.
BUT since the 8day cycles on the 24&25th, I would venture to guess the 24th might be an important date.

Getting back to present
spx 1341-1344 has been shown by some as indicating support, and right now @ 10am, its at 1342
It did open at 1341, and is not bouncing UP, thus we could think possibly lower numbers today.

March 28th looks like a high energy day, and its hard to imagine anything other than a strong upday, but thre is some scientific evidence otherwise.
Either way, next week reveals the true direction of the trend.

Best Wishes
Jay

high Turned today

Market might have topped at mid day today
Today was 34 trade days from Feb1st, and 55 from Jan 2nd- both were at near highs or turned down the next 4 days after.

jaywiz Index = .78, thats quite bullish - not sure how that will fit in, unless they get an open rally back to today highs and then turns down from there.

Bradley date = 26th

some others indicate selling thru the close of the 27th- charts edge- WCA- X tide

Hard to ignore those graphs

My own work indicates selling thru the 27th as thats a high tide date & 4th day in 8day cycle.

I dont think they will break 1260, but that might come the week of April 8 to 11.

Real exhuberance today and short covering

Best Wishes
Jaywiz

Full moon Effect

thanks Peter & Trinity

Trinity, since I dont really track gold, please let me know when cycles are near to completion.
I can then look at what I do track & we can confirm those dates together>

Today was heavily influenced by the FULL moon & the Equinox changing natural negative energy to positive stock prices.

Might have another day to go on Monday
Jaywiz index = .66 very bullish
CBOE pc ratio = 1.10 mildly bullish
OEX pc ratio = 1.79 very bullish
Vix yesterday = 29.84

Spx got to 1329.51, just shy of the 1330.74 on the BRADLEY date.
Next bradley date is March 26th, and its looking like a low for a number of reasons.

So; we now have a nice long weekend to wonder why they didnt sell off, and will they do it on Monday? 1350 spx is a good goal, but its way above the bradley high, so its possible they will tease the bulls on Monday and go nowhere, thus prompting them to get more bullish and way overBOT.

As I see it, next week starts out positive, but drops into WEd, then rebounds one more time into friday. April2nd is the NEXT 8day TURN date with April1st as the next closing HIGH

Best For now
Jay

Gold & oil

I posted several warnings about GOLD & Oil
Most recent was on Amrch 10th.
Today it hit with a FURY

Anyone else you know did that in March?

Jaywiz index =.26 = more selling
March 20= 8 day low

Selling starting earlier than I thought, but Fed rate cut was LAST HURRAH

Again there was a low at 2:44pm, but this time it was only temporary.

Jay

WOW

When the Fed speaks, people listen

how long can the glow last?

At least thru next week as far as I can tell for now

The Bradley date of March 18th had been shown on most charts as a low obviously was a high;
What does that tell us about march 26th- will it be a low as shown? I tend to doubt it, as there are forces at work next week to keep this alive till the 28th.

I can see spx testing 1320-1315 on Thursday' close- that would be about 200 dow points- not very unreasonable to expect some profit taking b4 the long weekend.

Jaywiz index jumped to .49= almost a buy, but not quite, but we didnt need that index to tell us that, and its a day late. Arms indexes out of kilter also.

Bar cycle 126 hit on Monday @ 2:30 but was a minor hit
More important was the 204/329 bar cycle hit on Tuesday @ 2:44 pm when the dow was only up 200, then exploded to the end of day highs.

Advance declines ratio was 8.42/1
But volume was only 3.35/1 - Not anywhere near the 98% up vol on the 11th.

Todays higher open ocurred @ 9:40 am, and the mag reading turned down at 9:45, thus the dow is now down 22 @ 10;20am & 30 bars cycle @ 10;30
60 bars = 1pm
90b = 3:30
Tomrrow
126 B@ noon
160@ 3pm
Might be the low of the day?

Jay

Tech buy signal

other than the jaywiz index, most other tech data is signalling a short term buy

A 1.00% rate cut would signal, IMO, a TOP in gold and oil, as there is no more room at the top.

Other than fiscal or other mortgage foreclosure assistence, monetary action is just about as far as it can go.

Fed rally today is already built into futures
Jay

Throw in the towel ??

Will the market cause teh Fed to throw in the towel next month?

Tomorrow looks like 1.00% to 2.50% tomorrow
that leaves only .50 to get to 2.00% on April29

Jaywiz index still only .22, indicates more selling or at least a weak open tomorrow.
Or they could sell off after a knee jerk UP reaction to the fed cut.

CBOE pc ratio = 1.48 and is a strong buy indicator
MCOS @ -250 should allow for a bounce for a day or 2 even without the fed cut

Oil & gold in topping phase this week as mentioned b4.

Best for now
Jay

BUY??

summary
Jaywiz index = .21 = more selling and futures are obvious today
vix 31.16 7 CBOE @ 1.40 indicating a possible buy

A low today is due at 11am and again at 2pm
Readings for today call for anxiety & tensions- no doubts there

Fed will probably cut rates tomorrow by .75 and has a good chance for 1.00%
Last time that happened was in 1983, I think , and the dow jumped over 600 pts in a few days.
of course this time may be different, but a short term boost to stocks will only be short term

Any more bad news after this week will NOT be able to hold the markets from major selling sessions.

Jay

UPdate March 17- 2008

Jaywiz Index still quite low @ .21 indicates more selling most likely on Monday.

However, there is conflict with that data as the CBOE pc ratio = 1.40
why is that important? you ask - Mondays ratio was 1.48 which led to the 417 pt rally on the 11th.

Vix is 31.16 which is another conflict and is considered by most technicians to be an oversold signal. Also noticed the option volumes are quite a bit higher than usual- not sure how to categorize that info

And of course we have the fed meeting on the 17th where a .75bp rate cut is priced into the markets. getting that cut should help the dow get back to 12,300. and spx to 1333/1344

Gravitational effect for the 18th is negative for stocks, and could hold down the rally till the 19th, but either day could provide a roller coaster ride

Best Wishes
Jay

AS expected

Friday did well as expected;
Didn't get 288 points but damn close

I dont have all my data yet, so will make some comments and more tomorrow

The Market hit a LOW yesterday afternoon at 2.42pm- sound Familiar? I'll answer that for you Yes -
Friday , Mar 7th @ 2.44 did the same thing. At that juncture it was 168 bars
This Friday was @ 102 bars, BOTH out of sync with what I would normally expect, until I looked a little deeper.
March 7th @ 168 bars was followed by 90 b@ on Mon@ 3:55 pm, the low @ 259 bars = BINGO.
This time we have a completed cycle @ 259 bars @ 10:15 am on the 14th leading to a low @ 2;42 @ 55 bars, again seemingly out of sync. One added feature this week was a high tide @ 2:51 pm

What remains to be seen is monday's open; according to the bar counts, it should start the day lower
till 11am @ 90 bars

Whats even more amazing is the coming 204bars at 2pm on Fed day, a low just b4 the announcment.

So what did actually happen. WE got the "B" wave I mentioned and the SPX did NOT break 1272.
Next time, however, the bulls will not be in happy land.

April 2008 follows the Armstrong date of March 22nd where the BUSINESS cycle is expected to shift.

FOR Now
Jay

Instant gratification

Thats the way i like to make $$$

bot the qqqpr at 1.88 and in less than 10 minutes its up 10%

Later

Jay

Futures flip

CPI accompanied a flip to up on the futures.

Today should be the exact reverse of yesterday

I dont know how long the uptrend will lasst, but I think we can look for spx 1330, and dow near 12,300.

I know I will be buying puts at those levels or sooner.
bar cycles today
259bars @ 11am, usually considered a low, but on occasion it provides a turn, and if making a high at 10:30, then i would suspect its possible the turn would then occur at 11am.

60 bars cycle @ 4pm, and that could spill over to Monday's open

Monday should repeat the 10th.

Jay
Hi Trinity, thanks for your support, and I love your name, assuming your a female, if not then forget I mentioned it.

It does appear I am making a lot less mistakes than in 2006, and hopefully I can get even better.
Pass the word - more people should benefit

Nicely done

Waves 1,2,3,4, and 5 today completes wave "A" of an abc retracement to spx 1355 next week

however, IN between the bears will take control tomorrow and Monday
We got to 1333 from 1272 = 60 pts
60 X 38.2 % = 24 spx points down = 200 dow points and we got that intraday today.
OR 50% = 30 pts = 240 dow
**********Or 62% = 36pts = dow 288, more probable *******
.That would complete the "B" wave, then the bigger runup induced by the Fed on Tuesday and Wed
Now I dont mean to give the FEd that much credit- They just happen to be doing things at a time when it is cohesive to the markets. Or when the wave count matches their efforts.

Jaywiz Index today = .28, i would consider this a minor sell
CBOE pc ratio = 1.22, a bit over sold , but not the 1.48 of monday
OEX pc ratio surprisingly high at 1.39

My propietary ratios are not indicating anything important.

Jay

Spx 1333

SPX1333 @11am -First target hit and backed off
Coy, Midnite tide day is really the only one that counts and that hits tonight- Not sure yet if it will record today's spx 1333 as the high of the week or if it will occur at the open as some of my other data suggests.- I'll know a little more in the AM

Larry Tomlinson has done some research on tides, and has shown that the important days such as Jan 22nd had the lowest lowtide of the month. He also shows march 9th had the lowest low for March, and of course we know that didnt work, expect for the day after.
OK, so its NOT an exact science(G), but we already knew that, right?

The rally up from march 10th so far has the look of 1-2-3-4, now waiting for 5 as the first wave up off the lows. as other evidence of wave 4, the 156 bar cycle was @ 4pm, & that was close enuf for govt work.

NOw, that means 180B hits at 11:30 am so IF there is going to be a spurt up, it should occur b4 or after that time zone. If b4, then look for highs @ 10am, if after then look for 2pm.

The Jaywiz index was only a .17 on Tuesday, and thus would not be denied its due, therefore the lower close. Today its @ .37, and thats quite an improvment with the oex pc ratio @ 1.66, and CBOE pc ratio at 1.09 , thus all 3 indicate possible upside day.

There is a conflict with the above summation when I review geological data, but some of it is still coming in, and I wont have a good fix until the am.

best for now
Jay

Where to now, oh brown cow?

Hmmm, Jaywiz Index =.17 caution flag is OUT

It doesnt seem that they would just stop right here
Arms index was only .59
8/1 Up vol
4.8 Adv over declines
however that jaywiz index and atmospheric pressure reading indicate some backing off tomorrow

Initial resistence is at 1343.75 spx, and if they open with a burst to that level, they will probably spend the rest of the day in lethargy.

98% UP volume should lead to further gains, and Im still expecting Thursday to provide a high in the spx 1355 area.

Jay

Fantastic rebound

March 10 = 55 trade days from Dec17 a low
= 34 tr days from jan 22nd low, actually 33 days

March 20 = 55 tr days from Dec31
= 34 trade days from Feb 1st -- both highs & This should also be a high

April 11= 55 tr days from jan 23 - a low
= 32 tr days from Feb 27, a high
April 11th is on radar for a low

may 2 = 39 tr days from March 10, a low
= 55 tr days from Feb13, a high
Todays 30 bar cycle low was @ noon and extended to 1pm

Tomorrow
90 bar cycle @ 10;30
126 bars @ 1:30
156 bars @ 4pm
Tomorrow should be a little sluggish, but they might start out with an initial burst.

expect spx 1330 to 1350 on Thursday, probably at 2:05pm

best wishes
Jay

That was a SERIOUS LOW

But how far can they go up??

If I look at the spx, and match up with the Jan 23 low of 1270 to today @ 1272, then we might want to say that was all wave 1 from October 9th to March 10., and 150 calendar days. or 110 trade days.
Does that mean something? I really dont know, but Im just looking at the symetry.

About 90% of my data signalled a low yesterday
the Jaywiz index = .32: NOt a screaming buy, but certainly no where near .14 of Friday.

259 bars did hit right at 3:55pm at spx 1272.66

When is the high? you ask; preliminary data indicates Thursday's close.
Spx 1576-1272 = 300pts rounded off, the same as the Jan 23rd intraday, but this time on close, and that is also beautiful symetry- Will that level hold? Absolutely NOT !!!!

But for now we should see the rebound move up to the following levels:
300 pts X 40% = 120+ 1270 = 1370 to 1390 maybe next weeks high on Jan 19th after the Feb cuts rates by .75 to 1.00%
300 pts x 23. 6% = 70 + 1270 = 1340 - maybe thursday's high

Fascinating how this is all taking place as we approach that infamous Armstrong date of March 20, 2008- What does it represent? Its supposed to be a transition from one economic stage to another.
SO, if stocks, OIl, Gold, Commodities all hit high points on or b4 that date, what happens after?

Put another way, if wave 1 completed yesterday,and wave 2 completes on Mar19th, then whats next is OBVIOUSLY The most infamous WAVE 3.

April is setup with 2 sets of Hard aspect clusters
April 6 to 11th
April 22 to 25
Because they are clusters, there is stronger harmonics at each one of those points
April 10 would then = 180 calendar days, = 13.5 ^ and April 25 = 194 days.= 14 ^

Best Wises
Jay

Jaywiz index

So far the Jaywiz Index @.14 on Friday told the story for today against all odds of making a lower low today.
Its 12:10 pm, and the spx is -13.87 @ 1280


bar counts today
11;30 - noon = 204 - 201 bars and so far it looks like the AM low @ 1279, maybe.
228bars @ 1;30 is next important low point, and we will see is it makes a lower low or fails to do so at that time.
Also 259 bars hits @ 4pm OR the open @ 9:35 am on Tuesday

Oil, and gold should start signifigant declines most likely on March 29th. & April should be a bearish month for both.

Best Wishes
Jay

What about next week ?

Dire predictions of a great fall?? --- I doubt it.

Even tho the Jaywiz Index was a .14, I think the negative effect will effect ONLY the open in the first 5 minutes.
As I look at the wave action friday, it looks as if the last hour could be counted as a wave 4, and part of Wv 5 which should OPEN monday on the previous low or above at or near 1283.

Most everything else I am looking at is pointing toward a rebound thru at least Wed.

Bar counts for Friday were strange and probably offset by the new moon @ 12:15 where there was a low point.
the day did open - 100 AT an unusual 102 bar cycle
Even the low of the day @ 2:44, hit at 168bars, and again not my usual count
Now the end of the day was 180bars, and as I have mentioned many times b4, that cycle could effect the next day's open, thus my projection above.

Most of my TECHNCAIL internal readings are oversold and have been since Tuesday's close, but that doesnt mean we get an instant rally.

Now that weve had 4 days of oversold readings, it should work well the next 3 days other than the open on Monday. many of the ratios that I have developped are indicating a bounce also.

Dates for March
March 7th LOW
March 12 high
March 17th low
March 19 high
march 20 low
march 25 early day high
march 26th low
march TOP

As you can see its a very complicated month

Best Wishes
Jay

Was that the LOW?

I did ask that question b4, but this time it looks like the open hit @ 102 bars, and unusual cycle point, but leads me to look for another bar hit @ 126 at 11:30am

As I pointed out, the Mars 180 Pluto had its effects at the open, and was in charge all day yesterday.

Obviously, there should be some back and fill today, with the biggest gains on Monday, and Tuesday.

It is possible the 180 bar cycle @ 4pm COULD hold out for the low of the day, but I wouldnt count on it.

The NEXT 2 weeks thru March 28th appear to have bullish overtones.

Best Wishes
Jay

mars still in control

might be a day too early to get bullish;

Tech data says go, but 180 apsect says no.

Mars 180 Pluto still in control until wee hours tomorrow

New moon at noon could still be a problem also

Jay

Looks like an upday

most of the things I look at in the AM seem to be indicating a strong upday today

Excpect for 30 bars cycle low at the open which appears to be signalling a mild lower open,

other times today are
60b @ noon
90B @ 2.30

I would then be looking for a much weaker open on friday, but also a good close, as mentioned b4, and very strong Monday follow thru, and a little more on Tuesday

Bradley date is the 8th which is a Saturday, thus monday is nnt out of the question for the actual high.

Jay

See- Saw

Did I say march 5th would be UP, YES I DID
Did i say it wouldnt be easy- YES I DID

Many of my ratios did give a short term buy yesterday and that should be good till march 14th.
However, it still wont be that easy;

Looks like a high tomorrow @ 2:15pm
there are bar cycle hits
60 bars @ noon
90 bars @ 2:30

I am still expecting friday to open lower, but close well leading to a very strong rally on Monday & Tuesday- spx should get to 1355 or more.

After Tuesday, it should hang or back off slightly, then topping on the 14th.

Big $$ can then be made on the market with a lower bias 14th close thru the 20th.
Even a .50bp rate cut will only account for an initial knee jerk up, but it wont hold.
Even good news during a stressful time period is bad news.

Jaywiz index today = .46 and thats quite a change from .13
not quite a raging buy, but its matching the other signals indicating an uptrend ,or at least a short term buying spree.

Best To All
Jay

March 5th and were Up

just as I projected earlier this week, march 5th is an up day.

Yes Sadie, and Steve
CBOE pc ratios @ 1.24 and 1.20 last 2 days seem to be overiding the OEX pc ratios at .77&.80
However, that wont last longer than today.
Jaywiz Index @ .13 still indicating more selling.
Now today, you will see the CBOE ratio drop under 1.00.

Typically, the OEX pc DAILY ratios under 1.00 are bearish. it means more call buying than put buying and that is a contrarian indication. I dont keep a 5 or 10 day ave, but ive been recording them daily for at least 5 years.

From the Feb 27th HIGH, I'm counting March 4th close as Elliott wave minuette 3, now looking for minuette4 today, and 5 tomorrow into friday at about noon which completes minor wave 1.

thanks for the feedback
I am on several yahoo financial group sites where discussions are directed to short term trading, and I do get a lot of information daily. yesterday one of the Elliotticians issued a buy order right at 2pm, just after i wrote my last update, and it was good to see a confirmation of my own outlook from another analsyst.
Jay

Was that the low ??

JAYWIZ Index says ____ NO___ recorded @ .13 & very very bearish
More selling to come, but Im still looking for that March 5th intraday high

Once again with the mars 180 pluto and new moon hitting @ noon on 7th, it appears that the 6th and part of the 7th will sell off.

If the market recovers late Friday like today or better, that opens the door for a very good Monday and Tuesday which already have impressive bullish readings.

Mar 180 pluto = RED ALERT according to those who predict such things.

OEX pc ratio aslo bearish @ .80 and was .77 yesterday
Vix still has room to get closer to 30.00

Gold collapsed today, dow usually follows.

Best wishes
Jay

This week 3/7

HI Peter, yes I do refer to WCA
Hi Sadie - 55 trade days can complete low to high, low to low, etc.
Now got
Mar7th high
march 14 higher
March 21 low
Mar 28 high
April 11 major low

Still got Wed march 5th as a short term high <>

DO be careful about the 6th. WCA shows both 6th and7th as DOWN
Charts edge shows both 6 and 7 as UP
WELL now, they both cant be right, so whats it gonna be.

MY WORK indicates a sell off on the 6th, and then a strong Rally on the 7th
Early hours of 7th has a mars 180 Pluto = RED ALERT for the 6th.
Bradley is the 8th and should be a high

Jaywiz index today is .36-still low or bearish, but not an outright sell which has occured under .20
CBOE pc ratio = 1.24 and friday was 1.27, both typically bullish
OEX pc ratio = .77 and thats quite bearish
Vix @ 26.20, NO buy signal there

90 B cycle hit today @ 11:30
126B cycle hit 30 minutes late @ 3pm

Tomorrow
156 B @ 11 am
180 B @1pm
204 B @ 3 pm

Best Wishes
Jay

Cycles

Feb 28/29 = 55 trade days from the DEc 10th low
Also using a 1/2 cycle from Jan 22/23 = 27 trade days

March 5th = 55 trade days from the Dec17th high

the month of March

March 5th = a high
March 7th a Low gravitational low due this week
March 14th = a high = 55 trade days from Dec 31st a, high
April11th a MAJOR - MAJOR LOW

Jaywiz Index for Friday = .28, not very bullish, but certainly not the same as Thursday@.17
So far its been quite consistent within an 80% ratio
It augmented other tech readings such as:
5day arms @ 76.6, a sell Jumped Now to 116.8
5 day trin = 383, a sell jumped now to 584
10 day trin=877, a sell now to 1065

those readings are not screaming BUY signals,but have taken out the danger signs, or so it would seem

Best for now
Jay

jaywiz index

The jaywiz index recorded a low # today @ .15

thats a sell for today, but also look for a low point to buy some calls for a high on march 5th.

jay

Its cold in Fla

42 degrees during my walk at 9am- brrr
good thing we have the sun shining its warmth- we usually hide from it, (G)

All my signals are on a sell for today, Feb 28
times are
10;30am
1pm
3;30 pm
Expect rebound tomorrow
would like tosee a lower open Friday, but i tend to doubt they will be that accomodating.

Jay

8 day cycle

I wrote 2/6 for the 8 day cycle and I meant 2/26 yesterday on close.
BUT one of my associates is counting 8days as one day after my count as intraday which means
today

that means the next 8 day cycle is March 10th intrday, but on close could be Friday March 7th on close. High or low,? you ask ? good question.
Im placing March 6th midday as a high, thus the 7th should be a low, and there is a new moon at noon:15.

Jaywiz index = .53 and is marginally a buy, but we will see what it posts today.

Best Wishes
Jay

Over the top

8 day high hit yesterday at mid day- funny how a major power outage ocurred in Fla right at 1:05pm

futures down strongly and could open lower and become an outside day with a lower low;

180 bars cycle @ 10:30 am
204b @ 12:30
228b @2.30

Was out last 2 days as family energency took me away from home base.

2/6 = 8 day cycle and it appears to have been a high
previous 8day cycles = 2/13 high--- 2/1high-----1/22low
Next 8 trade day cycle = May 7th

13 tr day cycle 2/21 = was a low
then March 11th should be a high, but im looking for it on March 14th

As for today and tomorrow, Im looking for a lot lower trading and the exact low should hit Thruday at the close.

Friday should be AUSPICIOUS. Its UP and away to at least March 4th or 5th b4 any selling of concern sets in.

Best Wishes
Jay

What rally?

The rally last friday in the last hour retraced 200 points on the dow.
Was that the rally I was expecting for Monday??

Im seeing that as a distinct possibility

Therefore, I am going to short ANY upside open within the first 30 minutes to one hour.- this is assuming it opens higher.

If it opens lower, they always rebound somewhat, and that point would be my signal to buy puts.
Im using the Q's as they are easy to trade and easy to follow.

Jaywiz Index = .33, not hugely bearish, but certainly NOT bullish as it is nowhere near the .50level required to consider a bullish day.

OEX pc ratio also a little bearish @ .90, but add that to a 5 or 10 day aver onto yesterday's .54 level.
CBOE pc ratio @ 1.15 would usually be bullish, but we are in a downtrend until the 28th, IMO, and those levels are not very bullish just yet.

Jay

Almost

Im really upset with myself

I pegged the bar count at 4pm today as the low off an earlier 90b cycle @ 11:15am

The LOW hit at 3pm; WHY; its easy when you go back after the fact. -- yesterday hit a 259 bar low at 3:15, ADDING 70 bars = a complete cycle of 329 and bingo at 3pm---GRRR;

Still made $$$, but not nearly as much

Getting ready to buy the open Monday which "SHOULD" open lower as maybe disappointment over the AMBAC issue not resolving over the weekend, but the afternoon calls for a financial boon

So, what we didnt make today will have to wait for Monday

Jay

flat Futures today

Flat to somewhat lower at the open.
indications leading me to look for lower all day today, and starting out Monday at a low point, but Monday and Tuesday AM should be a good day for the bulls, BUT NOT today.

thanks to the many who are asking for additonal info by email.
Start with the foundation for study of cycles

Keep a daily record of major stock indeces and write down your thoughts for the day to see if they coincide with the days events- How did you feel today? what did you trade? how did it do? If you dont question why& how, you will never be able to make a change.

I am an obsever, not only of stocks, but also whats going on around you. Sounds and make up of natural noises during the day, even.sireens, etc. Many who are in public service can tell you about full moon effect, but there's a lot more that goes on behind the scenes.

Even the FEd reserve now has documents relating to geomag changes in pressure leading to the advance and decline in stock prices.

google search's can bring you to sites that have info. start with
http://www.tatalk.blogspot.com/

&
http://www.slopeofhope.com/

ive been thinking about putting together a booklet that might be called tech analysis for dummies, including me. I had something in 1992, and sold it over the web, but got caught up in a very lucrative job. maybe its time to reinvent that booklet.

Best Wishes
Jay

Counting bars

Counting bars without stopping for a beer is really tough (GG)
Today hit 204b @ 10.45 and was 15 minutes late
228 b @ 12.45 was 45 minutes late
that threw off the 259 bar cycle which now projects to occur @ 3:15 and it did exactly that.

Today was just s difficult as any other day but they still fell into line and provided the down day I was looking for just as my JAYWIZ index @ .17 projected.

Today's Jaywiz INDEX is .23 and also very bearish as is
CBOE PC ratio @ .96
OEX pc ratio @ and amazing .54
SPX 500 pc ratio = 1.34
All of the above are screaming SELL SELL SELL

However, I dont think it will be that easy.

Im still expecting an UP open to rebuy a put position that I sold for an 18% gain
Adjusted bar cycles on the 21st:
60b @ 11am
90B @ 1:30, and I think this will be the low of the day
120 b @ 4pm is usually held over to 126b which would be @ 10 am on Monday

Best Wishes

PS, Thanks for your note, Peter; i'll try to keep up the good work. Science has contributed greatly to my accuracy, and we all know just how hard it is to do that on a day to day basis, and YES, I do mess up at times, but my record the past 4 months has been better than 90%/ I think I missed about 5 days within that time period.
I keep daily hand written records of the daily dow, spx, nasdaq, gold,sliver $, & oil & any notes such as bar counts.
I also have 2 spread sheets with some mathematical formulas,multiple cycles, astro data, bar counts, solar effect levels, & another set of sheets recording daily pressure & gravitational readings;
This has been a work in progress, and Im amazed each time I find something new to me that shows me the Money
Jay

ZIG & Zag

Sounds like a broadway show(G)

just like I told someone, today's open was just the opposite of Tuesday, and so was the close
Eclipse and full moon are like the energizer bunny- they keep on going.

Jaywiz INDEX = .17 and that indicates selling tomorrow, day after full moon eclipse
Looking for a brief higher open
204 bars @ 10am, but 210b might be more important @ 10:30
228b next @ noon
259b @ 2:30, then moves up into close
Friday
60b @ 10am
90b @ 1pm
126b@ 3;30, then higher into close.

Is anyone recording these times other than me?

Best Wishes
Jay

abc x abc

where does this complex abc x abc wave END? and how high

We are in a correction pattern against a downtrend

So far they got to SPX 1316 and as high as SPX 1395

1575-1275= 300 pts
300 x 40%= 120
1275 + 120 = 1395
Next fibo level = 50% = 150 pts = spx 1420- very doable, but when? = March 14th is when.

Until March 7th its a game of give and take, or wild swings within a range from 1330 to 1370

today was picture perfect
lows hit @ 11am = 66 bars
@ 1pm , very minor dip = 90 bars

Venus 45 to Uranus @ 2;18 turned market into a dive,
and the next important bar count is 126b @ 10 am tomorrow

After which they can run it up till mid day before looking for the next bar cycle @ 180b = 3pm.

Best Wishes
Jay

Heading Lower

some of what I wrote got left out???


Today is the 15th and so far we got a 10 am low, now waiting for noon to noon:30

I am hoping for a 1pm high to buy puts and HOLD over the long weekend- this is something not usually recommended but this time all indications show a lower close today and more selling on the 19th.

20th does show a strong rebound as it is eclipse day

Low on 22nd should be the Feb low and might match with the Jan lows or lower.
Best wishes
Jay

Bar counts

Today's bar count was right on target, but still very hard to follow, but I'm managing;

Today
120bars @ 10.10 ---- this is usually 126 bars
156B @ 1:15 -------close to 160
174b @2.50pm -------close to 180
190 b @ 4pm ----------UNFINISHED biz tomorrow

FEb 15
204 Bars @ 10.30
228 bars @ 12:30
259 bars @ 3pm

One would think tomorrow would be the same as today, However, pressure readings dont agree with a down day, at least to start.
Heres my thinking.

first < 30pm =" 329">
.
Second.<>

I did well with puts today and sold out at 2:50pm.
I will be looking to get short again tomorrow on any rally between 10:30, and noon. Unless it opens with a rebound at the open, first 10 minutes, altho I dont see any reason why it should.
Best Wishes
Jay

Feb 13 = Bradley

It now appears obvious the Bradley date of Feb 13 might have provided a high.
I really should have been more aware of the turn at a high rather than a one day dip.
Feb8th did provide a low, and I was touting a rally on the 11th which was opposed by some of my associates, and the continuation on the 12th was no suprise, thus the 13th BRADLEY high should NOT have been a surprise.

Today should take some away from the high of yesterday but Friday will be an EXCELLENT shorting OPP for next week into an eclipse that is not only conj with the moon 0 saturn, but also a Sun 180 Saturn-- These are NOT happy combinations and human nature will not react well when it comes to stock prices.

There is a FED reserve study that shows people DO react to gravitational changes, and when it comes to stock decisions & tend to sell when the gravitational effects people in a negative fashion.

Ive mentioned this many times in the past. PEOPLE do not go out to BUY anything when they are feeling down or depressed, but tend to pull back and lock in.

Any rally on Friday should NOT exceed today's high whcih in Elliott waves might be setting up a wave 1 & 2 leaading to substantial declines next week.

Bar counts continue to be difficult to read, but I think Im getting a handle on the current track.
today, Im loooking for the following count:
126 bars @ 10:30am
160Bars @ 1.30
180 bars @ 3.15

Best Wishes
Jay
PS: Congrats to anonymous for being astute enuf to make his/her own trading desicions.