PROOF is what you SEE

the ABOVE chart shows what my last comment on the previous post described
in addition

on the 10day chart above
DOW started at 8270
then
8590 + 300pts
8230 -360 pts
8500 + 250
8250 - 250
8500 +250

We've got to be STUPID not to take advantage of the above in both directions
If you prefer the bull postion, by all means its right there
and so forth for the bearish lot

NOW, at some point there's going to be a dramatic shift, and the CYCLE is still on schedule for JUNE10th to 17th with the MAJOR emphasis on the last 3 days of June15 to17

Erik Hadik has the MARKET and GOLD making severe deep cuts the week of June17-18
Dow to 7600, hmmm
Which IVE BEEN calling for months
___________________________________________________

OK, so lets look at NEXT week, and see what we can glean from the above as transposed into trading.

Gold first
Jaywiz gold index last week
26th = 16
27th = 39
28th = 16
29th = 16
VOLUME lacking OBV failing on current rise to 980
REALLY now- need I say more
____________________________________________-

Since we are 8500, we might see a move to 8590, but I doubt it
lets consider the next important trading level as 8200 - 8250
WHEN is the next obvious question

According to the FLOW of price change we should see another drop to the
above mentioned low and another rise to the previous high 8500 +

MY old friend Kevin Murphy points out the WEAKENING of the THEORETICAL highs in May,
and the NEXT one within the next 10days- I have his research statement & will publish when I get his permission.
______________________________________________________
The JAYWIZ index for STOCKS on FRIDAY was a 20 = quite bearish
the DAY opens with a CHILL at 8:20am and could set the tone for the day
power index as mentioned b4 is at 325
propens index NOW points to a down open, low mid by mid day, rebound and final low at close
hourly cycles still at
9:45
11am
1pm
3pm

Bar cycles are
90b @ 10am
120b@ 12;30
150B @ 3pm
____________________________________________________
SOOO<
what can we ANTICIPATE ?
You can interpret what you wish, but the NEXT level
tested should be at 8200, MYABE NOT tomrrow, but certainly THIS WEEK
*************
Power index shows some potential for WEd ,
and coincidentally there is as 13 day cycle COMPLETION on Wed at 10:30am
followed by a quick rise that day on the power index
***********************
____________________________________________
Now, your going to ask what happened to rise previously reported on the power index for Tuesday
there is a CONFLICT with the 3, 4 5, & 6 day daily feeds, and I need to see how the
propens index acts in order confirm which one is more correct- the 5day = the above outlook
OR the 7day which shows the previous uptick on June2nd -
BUT IT also shows it collapsing on the same day
____________________________________________

As usuall, we cannot expect our bearish goals to be met ALL IN ONE DAY
thus it has become MY researched opinion that we will see out trading GOAL
of dow 8200 on June3rd at 10;30am
In between we should get the TYPICAL DOWNS & UPS
every day within the 300 pts range= 40spx pts

that 40 spx points is something Ive referred to many times
666 + 140=906 + 40 = 946 and thats why I had mentioned
that as a potential high during May - never got there and IMO, it wont

Murry math is at 909 and did provide resistence
a small over run on both led to 929 on May8th
and now 920 on May29th just one day prior to the Merc Retro

Needless to say it all fits quite well within the scope of the 300 pt trading range for May
thus the same old same old for the next 2 weeks

more later
Jay

A sell off cometh

This is TODAY at 1pm

Look at how the OBV is LACKING & declining on a market that
doesnt seem to be able to hold onto its gains

MACD is rolling over also

Ultimate index is pointing south

Call me crazy but I really dont see how they can close any higher than 909, even if that

Its looking like Monday should be one of those 300 pt losses

taking the dow to 8100 & spx to 870-875

IF they do make a RUN above 909 at 3pm, call it DOOMS-DAY, and I WILL BE BUYING MORE PUTS

more later
Jay
1pm
ps; hope your keeping up with me

RANGE 880- to 910

ANOTHER great chart from Fed Wilhelmus

Shows the RANGE from 910 to 880

Lets all CONCENTRATE on 880
maybe we can use the FORCE to get what we want [ggg]

pardon my attempt at humor

more later
Jay

WE are ON a FLOAT ?

Rotrot chart - ALMOST there

Thanks for the REALLY GREAT comments - good dialogue without derogatory remarks

first * what happened yesterday

UP open as predicted
10:30 low @ 204 bars as predicted
2pm -3pm high as predicted
3;36 low @258 bars as predicted
possible higher close as predicted

that ONLY thing we didnt get yesterday was LOW enuf to make $$ on the short position
high of +128dow and SPX 909 was EXACT
___________________________________________

Will we get that today ?? it doesnt look like it - damn
MMORE FRUSTRATION for bears- WE WERE Expecting 2 DOWN days in a ROW, hmm.
However, OBV at close yesterday was WEAK, and should indicate some more selling today, maybe
OBV actually peaked at noon yesterday, and usually is a leading indicator of a weak market
and thus we will keep an eye on it today for clues into Monday
MACD not crossed over yet - waiting in the wings - chart above

Activity index THIS MORNING is on the RISE from a low of 100 at 7am to 266 @ 8:30
and futures are pointing toward an up open
DAMN OIL & GOLD need to get HIT along with stocks,
STILL got JUNE8th to 17th for that REAL BEAR to appear
until then we PLAY in a range 880 to 920

TIM McCarthy has June24th for a MAJOR RUNUP, and I agree BUT June10 to 17th is DEAD AHEAD FIRST.

AL LARSON's XTIDE today- uses red & green tide- very confusing
but using that along with my power and Propens index, I am projecting the following for today

UP open
Down at 30bars @11;30 to noon @ 78.6% of 13 day cycle low
Up till at least 1pm - 1:30
down at 2pm @ 60 bars
UP CLOSE

This MEANS a lower resolution to spx 880, ( if coming at all,) will have to wait till MONDAY
Natural energy shows a hard hit for Monday & readings for Monday are negative
GM announcement on June1st- Monday - by rumor- sell news??
VHF over 5 = bearish, but the HIGHER readings > 15 is really what ive seen with strong sell offs
Flux active = bullish


Theres more, but I'm out of gas for the moment
Jay

UP for starters today

Just as indicated Yesterday

they will open higher and may extend gains from 1pm to 3pm
possible retest of spx 909,
Its not that far away = 128 dow points


TODAY's Activity index at 8am is way up there at 400
remember that yesterday it was FLAT all day at its lowest level @33

so a reading of 400 indicates a very strong open today
I will keep you updated during the day, but will be out of the office from 10am to noon

Power index is clustered at 400 for most of the day and drops later to 300
Power index opens Friday at 300, and immediately jumps to 500

propensity index today starts at 2990, then moves up to a high of 2996 somewhere mid day
best guess between 1pm & 3pm, then drops back down to 2990

Bar cycle
204b@ 10:30
228b@ 1pm
258b@ 3;30

remember that 180b@ 3;36 hit exact lows yesterday

Midnite high tide inverted = a low today

occasionally the 258b cycle extends up to 30 minutes = 264bars at close
maybe, but I still prefer the 3;36 time slot for the LOD

A caveat since I see the open Friday similar to Tuesday which was down for 5 minutes
then exploded up for the day

question becomes when to close out shorts and get long
My game plan is to get out of shorts late today, 3:36pm, provided that I buy short during the day
AND
BUY long at or before the close and ADD more on a lower open- Fri
And YES
I do PLAN to get SHORT at Close on Friday, and YES will add more shorts Monday AM if warranted

more later
Jay

GOLD

1 year GOLD chart
Notice the NOVEMBER 2008 low matching equity lows at the same time

If Mahendra and Myself are both right, then it would appear to me that
JUNE17th - 22nd could be an important low for BOTh as in Nov

NOTE the OBV is below the level achieved last July as well as March 09
and imo, is indicating a sell off cometh

Price of gold
994 on Feb 20 = sun / lunar sextile

897 , a Low on 3/10 = full moon

955, a high on March 19 = 90*Qtr moon

872 - 868 low on April 6 & 17th = 90* qtr moon

956 high on May22nd = new moon on 24th

NEXT LOW should match 60cal days from April17th
and or June 22nd on new moon
=30 cal days from May22nd

And the full moon on June 7th might come into play on the 5th

More Later
Jay

A SELL OFF COMETH

Rotrot -Thanks for the great chart

A sell off COMETH - NOT because of the chart above
BUT
I try to find one chart a day, if possible that has some meaning-
& its not the ONLY reason for my forecast.


Mahendra - THANKS - I AGREE with your outlook 100%
Metals DOWN, STOCKS DOWN ,and the Dollar UP -
yesterday's jaywiz GOLD index = 16 & last 2 days were 15 & 31
Adding it up a SELL on GOLD

Dollar settling near 79.50 as a FLOOR= a rally about to happen
and it happens against a falling stock mkt- inverse as it may seem

MERC turns DIRECT this wkend - sometimes has what seems like a delayed effect.
_____________________________________________-
Whats NEXT for stocks ?

Heres some data for the puzzle
Activity index was at 100 at 7am, and has dropped to 33, the lowest possible level for that index.
power index today struggles with a cluster near the 500 to 400 level- about the same as yesterday.

propensity index =
opens @2992 ,a little lower than earlier level at 2994 = similar to yesterday.
Jumps UP to 2996 by mid day- just like yesterday
Drops off to 2990 - just like yesterday
HMMM, are we getting a picture here
TODAY = SAME AS YESTERDAY ?????

However, THIS TIME a Late sell off should be more severe thus leading to
""A SELL OFF COMETH ""on May28th as the power index drops to the 300 level
lowest level there is 200

WATCH OUT as the 29th power index jumps back up to 500 at close after opening at 300
ANOTHER SELLING OPP @ friday's close ???
I think so, but I need more data b4 making that call
However, the astro read does call for a difficult day with June 2nd as the reverse of Monday

More later

9:20am
ps; I DID NOT close out my short position yesterday & I will add more today
the low at 3;45 did NOT present enuf $ to make it worthwhile
as the above data was becoming clearer


Jay

Another Chart of Interest

Heres a chart from Ibo, one of our followers

This clearly shows what ive written several times

As a trader the hardest thing we have to learn is WAITING

Hadik recently wrote that June8th is the earliest the mkt could turn down,
and expects a bottom on or about the 12th

Ibo's dates concur with the above as do mine, HOWEVER,
****we are both targetting June8th and 17th*********
__________________________________________________________
CURRENTLY
WE have a market churning at a high at or near the Jan6th SPX high of 934
Dow has been well below its Jan6th high of 9035, but managed to get near 8600.

HIGHS as we all know take time to FINISH all components-- in other words, THEY ROLL
Unlike bottoms which CLIMAX all at once or within a day of each other as indeces
YES, sometimes do a bounce and drop, but thats another story for another time.

My recent comments reflect ibo's chart above, and thus we must be aware of a range bound mkt
until such time as it falls off the cliff's edge,
AND IMO, that will be from June10th to 17th with the
MAJOR EMPHASIS on June 15 - 17 th;

NOW, we have many options to choose from as how to take advantage of that expected dive.

If your a BULL, you can wait till June17th, sell the farm and buy stock
or if a bear, its obvious you want to be short on June10-12
And a trader can catch both sides, short on the 12th- long on the 18th

NOW, the other end of those trades can be relatively short lived, so dont expect a
MOON shot no matter how good it looks come June 24th- this mkt is NOWHERE
clear of the woods for at least 2 more years

remember we are in the WINTER of the LONG
Kondratief wave
which I posted a couple times
_____________________________________________
As for this week, Ibo also see's a high on the 55 td cycle on the 26th,
and IMO, intraday of the 27th with a possbile run on spx 940 thus
failing an attempt to break out above the Jan6th high.

May 26-27 = 55 tr days from March 6 & 9th (LOW TO HIGH)
the intertia high was 7days later which now = June4th
IMO< translates to June 3rd ,which is an 8day turn date for me.
June3rd date has come up frequently with Tim McCarthy also
____________________________________________

BUT for now we must LEARN to TRADE the mkt,
& not sit on our long or short positions.

More Later
Jay

Chart of Interest

This chart shows the NEG divergence on Last wed at spx 924,
and now shows a positive divergence at spx 880

Jay

End Run

Frustrated bears soon to be rewarded
Yes I know, This is like calling out WOLF a little too often

As mentioned b4, Hindsight is 20-20
BUT
before bears take over we still have one more push to the top.

THE LOW on Friday at an 8day/ 144 cycle low
from Oct27th STILL Hit on Friday at close
irregardless of the lack of a stronger sell off

Tuesday and Wed have strong bullish readings
and strong bullish influences + power index highs

The Indications were for a SELL OFF
on May21th and 22nd AND WE GOT IT
even if It did NOT meet my bearish needs either

Sold out at a small loss, but expect to make it
up in spades over the next 30days
______________________________
GOLD. also reaching the PHOENIX
Jaywiz index for gold
thsday= .15
fri=.31
both bearish
30 /60/90 cycle high on NEW MOON
March 19th = 955 hi
April 6th = 872 lo
April 24= 913 hi
May22=956 hi
Next important low due May30= Moon 90 Sun
_________________________________

More Later
Jay

ALTERNATION

Propensity index NOW shows the WAY
It rises in the AM and falls in the Afternoon

UP open till 9:45 and or 11am should LEAD to SELLING and LOWER CLOSE at 4pm

Tech level of support is FIRM at 866/870 spx
that would give us a dow of 8142

As mentioned BEFORE, today is 144 tr days from Oct27th,
which was a very important turn date.
the close of Oct 27 combined a 55% of my 13 day cycle AND an 8day cycle LOW

Well guess what we have TODAY
a COMBO of the 50%/13 day cycle low & an 8day low RE VISITED
granted the 50%/13 is due at 2pm, but I did mention that cycles can be extended.

ps;
please keep in mind that I need to review about 40 different variables
BEFORE I write these reports

More Later
Jay

May 22nd

So what can we glean for tomrrow ?
good question

Power index shows a possible LATE pick up, but we really shouldnt see that after today's later recovery-
Market does prefer to ALTERNATE as Elliotters very well know.

Propens index is not quite complete for tomorrow yet so the outcome is still in question there, but it does show a STEEP decline at open
& Polarity is now negative

I will UPDATE in the AM so we will have time to know what to do;

Jaywiz index = 25 TODAY and yesterday was a 31 - both NOT extremly so , but bearish anyway.

Todays ARMS index was only 1.28
there were NO SELL signals, and so far no buy signals from the
internals generated from the daily arms index

PC ratios are not screaming much today= neutral

May 20th was an 8 day HIGH and so it was
making May21st the 9 day TURN DOWN, and so it was
May22nd is 144 tr days from OCT 27th / 4 = 36 or / 8 = 18
making it the 8day LOW point , and that means on close

as written yesterday we have some prelim data indicating a low close, but
will have better data feeds in the am
see yuh then
Jay

BEARS Rejoice

Whats NEXT?
Down as previously indicated for a low on the 22nd

How low is low?
870 = Dow under 8230
840 = Dow @ 8000

Spx hit 924.50 at 10am yesterday and fell off, Specifically AFTER the 3pm HOURLY turn
and the DOW for one Second hit above May8th high of 8588 @ 8591 yesterday

Took an extra 2 days which frustrated all bears, but NOW we have our day
HOWEVER< dont BASK in the doom & gloom
AS previously mentioned several times
GET READY TO BUY THE FRIDAY LOW OF MAY 22nd- once again- sorry Tim

Vix under 30 for 2days
Jaywiz INDEX finally came off high #s @ 31 yesterday- not a screaming sell, BUT
The previous 2 days have been above 100, and all that got was CHURNING at a high

Dow at 8590, closed at 8422 = a LOSS of 168 pts
and NOW at 9:45 am is off another 100+ pts to 8300

Theres NO doubt in my outlook that we will get under 8235 of last Friday's low
and spx under 880 of last Friday also

SO,
at a MINIMUM , we should get to the numbers posted above at 870 & 8230
And thats NOT very far from dow 8000 & 840

IN ADDITION
VHF is under 5, but IS ACTIVE during trading hours. = a down day
Activity index dropped from 200 b4 open and is now at 100
Flux shows NO activity = a down day
Power index after having been at 600 yesterday drops to 425 tomrrow

Prop index was at 3000 yesterday, and has dropped to 2989
even with the mkt attempting to rally, it never went above 3000 during the last 2 days

Note yesterday's action
10am HIGH
11am on the slide
1pm low
3pm high
You get the picture, right
did yu notice the 2pm SHARP dip on 120bars AND 126 bars at 2;30- amazing
AND of coure the 3pm TURN lower
__________________________________
Ok , i will lay out next 2 days
Today
150bars @ 10:00 was off 130 @ Dow 8295 & spx 892
now off 140 and its not yet 10;30 @ 156bars
next is
180 bars at 12;30
204bars at 2:30
and of course watch the hourly hits
11am-1pm & 3pm
_____________________________

Friday
228 b @ 10am
258b@ 12;30- could extend to the 30 bar cycle in the next series at 3pm
which is ALSO an hourly turn
S 45* V at 3;44 has a light hearted reading, but nothing after to keep it up

50% of 13 day cycle low due at 2pm would = 276 bars
or might get to 3pm at @ 30 bars in a new cycle = 290bars
And keep in mind, we have seen the 13 day cycle hit an hour early OR an hour late
depending on surrounding circumstances such as natural energy forces.

Even 312 bars at 4pm might be a truncated 329 bar cycle

________________________________
I WILL BE BUYING at 3pm, and or CLOSE tomorrow

I wont lay it out for you but there is NATURAL HIGH ENERGY ALL next week
which should lead to an END OF MONTH high at spx 940 or above

As of June1st Merc goes DIRECT and that is very consistent with market TURNS

its now 10:25am
sorry about yeterday, there was really nothing to do, but wait for the fall
THANKS for all the comments - pos & neg ones
More Later
Jay

You can SEE quite clearly from this 10day / 15 min SPX chart
that the mkt is just about ready to roll over

Look at the 3 lower studies
1. is OBV
2. is MACD
3. is Ult oscillator

more later
Jay

CURRENT VIEW

LOOKS LIKE A BACK KISS Filling the GAP from LAST week

Now that wave "A" is really complete, we should see a deeper drop in wave "B"

and MY target is STILL Friday at 2pm

ONE DAY LATE - thats going to be my new mantra
and for some one who understands the psych of aspects this is becoming un excusable
Dont worry, Ive been beating myself up without your help
high Energy dissipates after 10:23 am

Couple of details
CNBC keeps on telling us that the consensus says they are expecting a decline,
BUT Then they turn it around to say the mkt wont accomodate
which really means they think the rally will continue

TICK closed on a HIGH + 1059 = bearish
VOLUME yesterday 1.4 bil = bearish
CBOE pc ratio = 78 = bearish
SPDR = 1.42 = neutral
oex pc ratio = 1.13 = neutral
_________________________

Prop indx drops at open, but doesnt give up much later
for tomrrow, it also wants to hold its own and not give up much either
power index agrees , but gives it up on Ths & Fri

midnite hige tide tonight
New moon this wkend

Dollar and stocks seem inverted, which means that gold & stocks should track,
other than yesterday, it doesnt seem to be working - YET.

Moon 0Uranus at noon today
258bars at 10;30
30b @ 1pm
60b@ 3;30

more later
Jay

More Long term

Another LONG TERM VIEW

Unprecedented # of MONTHS under the trend line

NOT a pretty picture for long term, and supports the idea for Dow 4000 by 2012

Jay

Long term view

A LONG TERM VIEW FROM ETHAN
Thanks, Ethan

DOW 4000 by late 2011 or early 2012

Jay

Tim's latest chart

As previously MENTIONED, I am STILL looking for a PIVOT LOW on May22nd at 2pm

Tim's chat above shows a pivot low as potential on May21st at noon

We are getting much closer to each others projections !!

He also projects June2nd on another chart as a HIGh and Ive been quoting June3rd.

Not bad for 2 analysts using TOTALLY different methods to arrive at very similar conclusions

Tim, whats going on at your new website?
cant log in
Jay

Sunday Update

PRELIM data

Prop ind & power index both show Monday to be an off day
most likely to hit a low once more at 3pm, and or close
Its showing a DOWN/UP/ DOWN type day

some call it a RED day high to low

Tuesday shows a possible strong up open, but I dont have enuf data for later yet
BUT midday low possibly around noon

More Later
Jay
Ok Its now later [g} 3:30pm

times for Monday

14.6% fibo segment/13day cycle low at 9:50am
180Bars cycle low at 10:30
204bars at 12;30
228 bars at 2;30
Hourly cycle TURNS are still
11am
1pm
3pm
+- 15 min either way

Since there is an M 180*S @ 3;14, I would venture to guess the LOD at or near that time

more later
Jay

This WEEK"S GAME PLAN

latest chart from Rotrot, one of our followers
NYSE chart shows an even more dramatic turn

Amazing, one follower last week said they were leaving because my timing showed a 1pm high and 3pm low
on Tuesday - I find that VERY amusing - Why ?, you ask.
I have been at MARKET GURU for about a month, and they are already
referring to me as a ROCK STAR @ 2% top timers

BUt you read my forecasts here first

Answer this for me.
HOW MANY PEOPLE in this WORLD can forecast market direction at all
and for any period of time.
That person who left expects me to hit perfection every day,
and Intraday as well-- once again - amazing

Friday was AMAZING ALSO
Called for an open down - we got it
called for rebound - we got it
called for 2;30 low - we got it
called for last hour rebound - we got it
HOW MUCH MORE DO YOU WANT?

Just from memory
I called the Nov 21st LOW within 5minutes
called the March 9th low within 1day
Called the May8th high within a couple days
and thats ok because tops roll

Whats Next
Monday's Power index is showing only a moderately off day
and might even start with a little bounce, and its showing the 20th as the bigger down day
which matches my previous outlook for ASTRO projections

As I wrote b4, GET ready this week to take advantage of this decline,
but ALSO get ready to BUY Friday's close for next next rebound rally
the 26th is characterized as a HIGH ENERGY DAY, and it doesnt stop there

More Later
Jay
ps; i dont mean this to be bragging, but someone has to bring it up
for now we are a well hidden gem, but one day maybe you'll hear my name on CNBC
HAHAHA
Im not Charles Nenner or Arch Crawford by any means whatsoever.
just one guy trying to make a living trading and willing to share his knowledge
they say what goes around comes around - Im waiting [g}

Fred's Chart

SPX fractals

Numbers not shown
BUT
SPX 898 he writes TARGET hit
and the LOWER level is RIGHT at 867

Matches the numbers posted by FLASH
Jay

BAR cycles

The 90 bar cycle low appears right on schedule for the open

the power and prop indexes are both in agreement

What happens after the open?? good question

today we also have
126 bars at 12;30 & this matches Xtides chart for today -
sorry, I dont have permission to reproduce over here
150bars at 2:30pm
which means that 180 bars on Monday is at 10;30

BOTh the powr & prop indexes ALSO agree with potential LATE DAY intraday high
but its hard to tell when, best guess is between 3 & 3:45pm

Yesterday's high at 2:45pm was also difficult to read, but we have seen that
happen that way many many times.

FlashFusion did mentioned 898 on twitter as potential resistance -& was within 36cts.
His update has lots of numbers
SPX 901
SPX 891
SPX 867
Im Not sure how to fit them into trading today

Hmm
at 9am futures are moderating off earlier lows
BUT still off about 5 spx = dow 40
ACTIV index came off its high yesterday at 300 and has been holding at the 100 level all morning

Considering the variables, Im going to plan to sell my puts at noon to noon :30
on the 120 to 126 bar cycle low
THEN buy some back at about 3;30 IF the mkts has recovered at that time
If not then I will wait for Monday

It Still appears May20th could provide a low as previously written

More Later
Jay

many comments = UP mkt

Ibo's Latest chart of EW

Lots of COMMENTS today which has been noted b4,
= an UP market and we are getting just that , now + 63pts Dow

ITS NOW NOON :30, and the ACTIVITY INDEX has just JUMPED UP
from the 100 to the 266 level = an up mkt this afternoon

I have to admit that SOMETIMES the POWER INDEX is NOT easy to read,
and sometimes I DO misread it- ITS NOT the INDEX that is in error- ITS ME
same thing goes for ASTRO events

having said that , a FRESH look at the POWER INDEX TODAY
shows a PEAK AT TODAYS CLOSE - ITS A VERY CLEAR READING
FLUX indicator also shows an UP DAY.

IN ADDITION to that we HAVE a 90 bar cycle LOW due at EITHER 4pm or OPEN Fri.
Now, the POWER INDEX shows a HIGH at the end of day today, & it also shows a drop at open:
I am going out on a limb to say the OPEN tomrrow should be DOWN.

I will be BUYING DJX PUTS at CLOSE today.
One Caveat however, Keep some powder dry because both the
power & propensity indexes are showing recovery intraday Friday
THUS there is still potential to recover some & rebound intraday Friday,
offering another SELLING OPP mid day

SO, IF selling at close today, I will hold same cash back for Friday late also

Ive already bot some GLD puts - did WELL with last position,
and now gold is vulnerable again to a decline
GLD pc ratio yesterday was 22- waiting to see it tonight,
and might add more tomrrow if a lower ratio

ps;
Please dont fight among the commentators
& please offer constructive comments only
thanks

Summary thru June

May8th possible TOP of wave "A" as above chart shows
May20-22 low - sorry Tim
May 29th high
june1st dip
June 3rd-8th high
June17th MAJOR LOW maybe WAVE"B"
June 29 high
JULY looks like a true roller coaster- huge volatility


more later
Jay

THE MAY TOP ??

May can provide a high of significance

I DONT THINK it will be a TOP of significance
which means I dont see a return to spx 666 anytime this year

2011/2012 more probable
but in between we get lots of volatility

As you already know, Im looking for SPX 940 by Friday
Tim's Chart shows a high on May 22nd, but MY work suggests we will be
coming off that high on the 18th and more so on the 20th and 22nd
into the new moon time zone.

_________________________________________
OK, SO Whats Next

WE NOW have the POTENTIAL for Morning SELL OFF in reverse
of my previous interpretation, which was based on a sell off at 3pm or close today.

Tomrrow, opens DOWN, recovers, and sells off again till 3pm
then heads for spx 940 by Friday

more later
Jay

WHERE ARE WE Now

THIS Chart for 1938 is for comparison only - DO NOT REFER to exact dates for reference
HOWEVER, direction is UP off of the major low scored in April that year, thus March 9th this year

Note the strong 1st wave rally off the LOY
then an ABC setback which currently SHOULD begin Monday , and END on June18th, IMO.

From there, as mentioned B4
I AM BULLISH till at least early August for now, following astro
events as a guide up to the Aug 6th full moon
_______________________________________________________________
Yes Bobby Ricky - Follow your own system- thats what I do-
Despite others good intentions -I cannot allow other systems to corrupt my work,
but I DO ADD MORE AND MORE things such as the indexes to the right,
and I do peruse whats out there by other technicians and analysts
FOR EXAMPLE___________________________________________

Go to Kenny's website and he explains the OVERBOT at 85% bulls
this is HIS comment.
Well, with SPX futures bulls now at 85% according to the DSI and SPX 116 points off its 50 day moving average, I'd say this thing is getting way out of hand. Even the 20 day is well below the market at 872. The wave structure for wave 5 of (C) now counts almost complete unless wave 5 extends. I don't believe it will.
I don't know how deep a correction after this would be, but there is going to be a fight at the 870-875 area if it ever falls back to there. Of this I am quite certain.
End of QUOTE

__________________________________________________________
Ok Back to NOW

May8th FULL MOON = potential TOP
May 24th NEW MOOn = Potential low
June8-9th =FULL Moon = potential high
June 22 = new moon = potential low
_______________________________________________

Welcome follower # 62, and when commenting, please identify yourself with at least a single letter
btw, I dont understand how Xtrends got 690 followers- last month they had 550 -
and the info they put out like many other similar sites is what I call OVERLOAD


I do appologize for being off the mark, as my indexes of late have not been
giving me the kind of direction that I have grown accustomed to getting from them.
Hopefully thats just a temp setback, AND I am making some adjustments.
------------------------------------------------------
also
being in the BEAR CAMP has not done will since April28th, but that is about to change
As Ive ALSO written, WE MUST NOT BARK UP THE WRONG TREE or JUMP
on the WRONG BANDWAGON, and of course most important read the signs correctly
& That goes for BOTH directions.

IF I READ one sign correctly is the GUSHING bullishness from CNBC on Friday
and it fits well with Kenney's statement above

AFTER this next corrective phase from Now till Mid June, we must THEN REFOCUS
our THINKING toward a VERY BULLISH JULY into EARLY August.
We cannot allow perenial bears to inlfuence us when we are supposed to be bulls.
______________________________________

More Later
Jay

Bear Market Rallies

I posted this chart b4, but it BEARS watching

Im using it as a TEMPLATE as it also fits well with the LONG Kondratief wave that I posted b4 showing
the current time period in the WINTER of our discontent as witnessed by the market action of 2008

2008 continues till 2012 b4 it starts to rise from the 3 year winter period

What this got to do with today, you ask?
good question

The 1938 initial bottom was in April, fast forward to 2009 = March 9th
It would appear we are just about to set an initial LOW off the first rebound from March 9th, other than the April sideways triangle

This CHART also shows we are in a PRIMARY TREND REBOUND/ recovery from MARCH 9th which should make it till probably October before turning into another DOWNTREND.

______________________________________________________

OK lets talk TODAY and next week
FUTURES are pointing HIGHER-- SOOOOO WHHHAAAT !!
means nothing , UNLESS you want to SELL the OPEN - this for Bears with cash
the elevator is going DOWN thru Monday and MAYBE part of Tuesday

MY game plan is to SELL puts on Monday at close
and get ready to buy calls- its also EXPIRATION WEEK
astro is a bearish for monday
A little bearish for Tues
and mostly positive thru the 19th
I posted the entire month previously

Propensity index drops to a pivot low at close today
power index = ditto & lower for Monday- numbers posted b4
Full moon = Scorpio/Taurus - not a good combo for bulls

more later
Jay
9:30am

Update 5/7 @ 1:45pm

Lets DO the MATH
a retreat from spx 930 after a gain of 260 pts
fibo 38.2% to 50% = 104 to 130pts
thats 826 to 800 - those are both levels we have discussed b4
as previous supports on the way up.


Chief is looking for 855 and he's a pretty good technician
even if he snorts at the wrong time. And IMO, ITS this COMING Monday.
930-855 = 75 spx pts = 600 dow to 7900

Its possible we are topping a 3rd wave within a 5 wave sequence
still unfolding and wont really top till late May or early June as previously posted.

((Yes, I know all this BEARISH talk gets redundant because
we are suffering from our errant ways)).

ok now, back to biz.
THAT means wave 4 is coming up VERY SOON if not starting later
today. Some of my STUDIES indicates such is possible today,
but MORE likely TOmrrow & Monday

Since April was a 2nd wave triangle a,b,c,d,e: we would expect the 4th to be totally different.
And if it takes place in just 2 or 3 days coming up as described above, we should see the results
by Monday

_______________________________________
The ABOVE was written as a comment at 9am this morning
The PROPENSITY and POWER indexes are NOW in alignment heading toward
a resolution on May11th.

The activity index has been flat at the 200 level all day
polarity went negative yesterday

VHF is very active now reaching 9, (range from 0 to 25 )
the higher number, the bigger the sell off

FLUX is VERY LOW at 900= weakness

propensity index started at 3010, and is now at 2975

power index started at 600, and ends the day at 525
TOMRROW it started at 550, and ends at 400
Monday it drops to 300
BUT on TUESDAY & Wed it starts at 400 and runs UP to 700= ONE HUGE RALLY

MoreLater
Jay

Fred's Chart

Heres a better pic
sorry about the first one

more later
Jay

UPDATE

Heres a FRACTAL CHART from Fred Whilhelmus shows SPX911 exactly where we are right now
Now thats a memorable NUMBER

Chief may have it darn close-
expect a possible 855 low, then 1010 high

his best warnings are
SNORT and Yawn - IMO< and others -to be read inverted
Snort means we should get short , and
Yawn means its time to get long

As of May6th OPEN its a SNORT
_______________________________________________-
IMO< 855 seem as good as any level by Mon and or Tues -May11th & 12th
IMO< HIGH by June 3rd to 8th , to at least spx 940 or 970
________________________________________
If I remember from My Joe Granville days,
His CLX shows the strength or weakness of the dow 30 stocks
a plus # means strength or how many dow 30 stocks are up verses down
similar to OBV but based on price, not volume
a minus # is of course weakness
and the higher or lower = the magnitude of above
________________________________________
My propensity index and power indexes are locked in place till
May7th for example --- Up and DOWN today

May5th Bradley hit a high +30dow pts in the AM, then gave back

May7th Next Bradley, hmmm , sandwiched close together like April16/18
April 20 was off 300 pts
IN this case we would NOW look for a decline to follow May7th into May11th -12th

May11th power index + astro agree, thus
showing a potential for more severe decline such as April20
________________________________________________
OK Jay, Stop beating around the bush
heres ASTRO timing for May & June

May5th-7th BRADLEY highs
May11-12 LOW
May19th high
May22 low
June3rd = Bradley -MAJOR HIGH
June 14th & 18th Bradley = MAJOR LOW & CATAPULT to spx 1100 -
June & July = summer rally with good astro
August astro doesnt look very good - could get rough
____________________________________________
Back to this week for a moment
PC ratios were very bearish at close yesterday
Jaywiz index = .10 - also very bearish
Futures turned up at 8;30am as did MY ACTIVITY index as of 9am

repeat - power & propensity index show moderate rise today,
then retreat later
Tomrrow shows retreat early, moderate rise, and another late day retreat
SAME possible for Friday
in other words any attempt to make higher highs should be met with selling,
thus we get the resolution SELL OFF on May11th and 12th to spx 850 area -
some call it CHURNING
______________________________________
Monday is an 8 day LOW
Making Tuesday an 8 Day TURN

May7th -Mercury Retrograde usually takes a couple days before its
effect is seen in stock prices
Merc Direct has a more immediate effect on May31st,
thus the early June spurt accompanied with other pos astro & full moon until June8th.


More Later
Jay

Power index

Power index on May 4th did not show up as a high like we just saw

It did PREVIOUSLY ((and still does to some extent))
showed as a high on the 7th, holding on the 8th as I previously described
However,
Now that we have what looks like the SPX 909 HIGh that I mentioned for May7th,
We NOW have it on May4th, THEN COMES the old question **ARE WE THERE YET?

Mao said yes, and we thank him for his input- first time we have seen his comments
Please join in whenever you wish.

PROPENSITY index is sometimes hard to get a FIX on it over a wkend for Monday trading.
But now we can re align our outlook as that index NOW seems back in alignment
and is declining from 3019 as of the CLOSE of May4th to 3000 on the open of May6th

Also re aligning a look at the power index
shows a high on the 4th @ 450 dropping to 350 on open of the 6th
THEN bounces to 375 during the 6th & closing back at 350

Now we come to the 7th again.
its a BRADLEY date and that usually offers a high or turn, and this one could be both
the power index JUMPS to 450 mid day, then falls back to 350 by the close

8th shows a substantial decline is possible as the index continues lower to 300
thats as far as that one goes for now

Futures are heading lower this AM, and according to the PROPENSITY index
the mkt should go into a steady decline today and open lower tomorrow

WE ARE NOW PAST Astro that had a Sun 120 Saturn early this AM as
mentioned b4 + an inverted midnite low tide.
Astro is now leaning toward negative lunar aspects today into 10:12 tomrrow AM
which matches the power & Prop index readings

Since the 7th still has some potential to runup During the day,
we might consider covering shorts on the 6th, and re entering on that runup on the 7th.

as mentioned b4, THIS Full moon seems to be reading restrictive and confrontational
then
Astro for Monday May11th - 13th appears to have a steady menu of hard aspects,
and thus could setup a tradable LOW with a midnite inverted HIGH tide

More Later
Jay
9am Tuesday
PS, thanks for your support during times of question







Stress test results due on Thursday

Morning UPDATE

its 9am on May4th

Heres a 29 year SEASONAL GOLD chart from Moore Research
clearly shows a Typical FEB High and August LOW

Gold should make a LOW under 850 this week as stocks rally
and hold thru the full moon on Friday
___________________________________________

back to stocks
without going into all the detail surrounding my outlook,
here is a SUMMARY.

This morning it doesn't appear from futures that they are
going to plunge at the open as Charts Edge has proposed
BUT it could be tomrrow, or thru 10:30 at 258 bars
and again there is a 50%/13 day cycle at 2pm

My propensity index for TODAY shows the potential for a moderate rise
in the morning, but ENDING on the DAY"S LOW, and that matches well
with ASTRO

Tomrrow could start on a down trend, but should end on the upside leading to
a strong rally on Wed and Thursday

Friday appears to be a STALEMATE

other than today and part of tomrrow,
A stronger setback appears on hold till NEXT WEEK

More Later
Jay

WHERE ARE WE Now

Very nice graph from Ibo

Besides astro, theres some timing for Monday/Tuesday that I have mentioned b4
and here it is ALL OVER AGAIN
________________________________________________
May 5th is a Bradley date

Full moons have been coincidental with highs recently we should
consider a similar response this week also on the 8th even to the power index doesnt
reflect that for now

________________________________________
Some fascinating math
910 pts lost from 1576 to 666
910 X 23.6% = 215pts
667 + 215 = 882 and the spx has been playing around that number
for a few days now, but failing to stay above it

Next idea.
Murrey math level above 878 is 909
hold it now, *** 909,*** hmmm and the loss was 910pts --
coincidence or NOT- that is some question
_________________________________________________

Tuesday TIMING is
109 tr days Nov 20 low to low
233 tr days May30, a high to low
144 oct 1 high to low
AND its also
40 tr days from March 9th, which makes Monday 39 tr days
the cycle calls for 38 to 42 tr days , aver = 40

There is also a 50% of my 13 day cycle LOW occurring on Tuesday at 2pm
Remember Nov 21 at 11am- this cycle event is NOT an LOD, but it is an intrday
PIVOT

________________________________________________________
Power index also shows a low on 4th and partly on the 5th
THEN a big rebound on 6th & 7th & drops off on 8th
However,

7th is another Bradley date, and IF the 5th does actually offer a LOW & turn,
then it would be logical for the 7th to offer a short term high or because of the
FM, could be the 8th.

once again the full moon are high energy days, and NOW this one is also
an 8day HIGH, which makes the 11th an 8day TURN
_______________________________________________________-
I would still suspect 909 might be the near term target
above 909 = 940- which is just a number out there in waiting.
in any event , IMO, we are closer to a tipping point high which might NOT
actually occurr till May 18 or 19.

It also possible that volitility will continue to abate as we approach the real peak of MINOR A
thus when "B" does hit, it will seem like the RUG got pulled out from under
It might feel that way Mnday & Tuesday.

I think thats the reason why we get LESS commentary near those highs as
everything seems to SLOW DOWN and get SLEEPY, so to speak

THEN when its does hit, IT wakes us up and we go WHOOOH- what just happenned
thus we get lots of participation
comes down to the OLD STORY- people want to knwo- Thats why the MEDIA makes up
stories DAILY as to why the mkt did what it did on any given day- they MUST have a REASON

Huh, I was talking with one OLD guy at the pool, and gave him my June 18th date-
instead of a thank you, he wanted the answer to a question
what was the question- one word --- WWHHYYY ?

I had a 9th grade math teacher who everyone hated,
because She would ask how much is 2 + 2?
and God forbid you would answer 4 without having the answer to her next question
WWWHHHHYYYY ? she would scream it at you,
making you wish you just vanished from the room.

More Later
Jay

ASTRO

May4th =mars # Uranus = Frustrations explode
Mars 45 Jupiter expansive @ mid day
moon 150 jupiter = poor judgement
moon 180 uranus =foggy assessment
reading calls for inflamed tempers & disruptions

May5th = Moon 90 pluto at 11:23 = emotional conflict
Venus # Uranus @1:20pm = chaotic
May8th = moon 60 Saturn @ 4:59pm
full moon
____________________________________
THAT WAS THE YING
NOW the YANG
May 9th = Sun# Pluto = use of power to diminate
May11th = Mars 150 Saturn = conflict with authority & aggression
May12th = Merc 45 Mars = anger & verbal attacks
________________________
shifts again to Ying

May 15th at 7pm
Venus 45 Neptune
ROMANCE and or FANTASY

May 16th @wee hours in the AM

the SUN 90 Jupiter on May15th is accompanied with
EXPANSIVE OPTIMISM

and its followed within a few hours by SUn 60 Uranus = also quite positive.

17th Sun 90 Neptune
Idealism abounds, maybe too much so
18th
Sun 0 Merc
align yur goals with caution &
become financially sensible

19th @ 10;23 am
Jupiter 30 Uranus
Luck & good fortune
the day is also filled with positive lunar aspects
sun 60 moon

that was the YING
NOW comes the YANG

May20th
Merc 90 Neptune
Perspective skewed & confusing

Venus 150 Saturn
Stern & Abusive

Merc # Pluto
$$ encounters a harsh controlling force

Merc 90 Jupiter
lots of talk, but no answers

May 22nd
Mars II Saturn
RESTRAINT and blockages

sun 45 Venus
a lighter feeling

23
Sun 10 pluto
authority will try to control

24th Sunday New moon
Restlessness


25th memorial day
_______________________
SHIFT BACK to YING

26th
Mars 30 Uranus
take action - explore new
Mars 60 Jupiter =ENTHUSIASM
Mars 60 Neptune = Inspiration & hope
27th
Jupiter 0 Neptune
Inflated & unrealistc hopes & dreams abound

More Later
Jay

8:25 AM

May4th = A Cycle LOW

May1st should linger all day till 3pm when a sharp retreat should
close the day lower leading to the May4th low as below

May4th is 108 tr days from Nov 20th and offers a market LOW
HOW low ?/ possibly spx 840 - 845

May5th offers a PIVOT day which should take off AFTER 2pm
why 2pm = 50% of the 13 day cycle Low

May6th - big rally continues

Thats as far as my power & propensity indexes takes me for now

UNLIKE some ELLIOTT technicians, I do NOT see a sharp decline to
spx 800 at this time

After the Low on Monday the mkt should continue its march higher
and once above 878 with volume, it should make it to its next resistance
at 909.

more later
Jay