Will the market cause teh Fed to throw in the towel next month?
Tomorrow looks like 1.00% to 2.50% tomorrow
that leaves only .50 to get to 2.00% on April29
Jaywiz index still only .22, indicates more selling or at least a weak open tomorrow.
Or they could sell off after a knee jerk UP reaction to the fed cut.
CBOE pc ratio = 1.48 and is a strong buy indicator
MCOS @ -250 should allow for a bounce for a day or 2 even without the fed cut
Oil & gold in topping phase this week as mentioned b4.
Best for now
Jay
THE NEW JAYWIZ 2023
THE NEW JAYWIZ 2023
Monday, March 17, 2008
BUY??
summary
Jaywiz index = .21 = more selling and futures are obvious today
vix 31.16 7 CBOE @ 1.40 indicating a possible buy
A low today is due at 11am and again at 2pm
Readings for today call for anxiety & tensions- no doubts there
Fed will probably cut rates tomorrow by .75 and has a good chance for 1.00%
Last time that happened was in 1983, I think , and the dow jumped over 600 pts in a few days.
of course this time may be different, but a short term boost to stocks will only be short term
Any more bad news after this week will NOT be able to hold the markets from major selling sessions.
Jay
Jaywiz index = .21 = more selling and futures are obvious today
vix 31.16 7 CBOE @ 1.40 indicating a possible buy
A low today is due at 11am and again at 2pm
Readings for today call for anxiety & tensions- no doubts there
Fed will probably cut rates tomorrow by .75 and has a good chance for 1.00%
Last time that happened was in 1983, I think , and the dow jumped over 600 pts in a few days.
of course this time may be different, but a short term boost to stocks will only be short term
Any more bad news after this week will NOT be able to hold the markets from major selling sessions.
Jay
Sunday, March 16, 2008
UPdate March 17- 2008
Jaywiz Index still quite low @ .21 indicates more selling most likely on Monday.
However, there is conflict with that data as the CBOE pc ratio = 1.40
why is that important? you ask - Mondays ratio was 1.48 which led to the 417 pt rally on the 11th.
Vix is 31.16 which is another conflict and is considered by most technicians to be an oversold signal. Also noticed the option volumes are quite a bit higher than usual- not sure how to categorize that info
And of course we have the fed meeting on the 17th where a .75bp rate cut is priced into the markets. getting that cut should help the dow get back to 12,300. and spx to 1333/1344
Gravitational effect for the 18th is negative for stocks, and could hold down the rally till the 19th, but either day could provide a roller coaster ride
Best Wishes
Jay
However, there is conflict with that data as the CBOE pc ratio = 1.40
why is that important? you ask - Mondays ratio was 1.48 which led to the 417 pt rally on the 11th.
Vix is 31.16 which is another conflict and is considered by most technicians to be an oversold signal. Also noticed the option volumes are quite a bit higher than usual- not sure how to categorize that info
And of course we have the fed meeting on the 17th where a .75bp rate cut is priced into the markets. getting that cut should help the dow get back to 12,300. and spx to 1333/1344
Gravitational effect for the 18th is negative for stocks, and could hold down the rally till the 19th, but either day could provide a roller coaster ride
Best Wishes
Jay
Saturday, March 15, 2008
AS expected
Friday did well as expected;
Didn't get 288 points but damn close
I dont have all my data yet, so will make some comments and more tomorrow
The Market hit a LOW yesterday afternoon at 2.42pm- sound Familiar? I'll answer that for you Yes -
Friday , Mar 7th @ 2.44 did the same thing. At that juncture it was 168 bars
This Friday was @ 102 bars, BOTH out of sync with what I would normally expect, until I looked a little deeper.
March 7th @ 168 bars was followed by 90 b@ on Mon@ 3:55 pm, the low @ 259 bars = BINGO.
This time we have a completed cycle @ 259 bars @ 10:15 am on the 14th leading to a low @ 2;42 @ 55 bars, again seemingly out of sync. One added feature this week was a high tide @ 2:51 pm
What remains to be seen is monday's open; according to the bar counts, it should start the day lower
till 11am @ 90 bars
Whats even more amazing is the coming 204bars at 2pm on Fed day, a low just b4 the announcment.
So what did actually happen. WE got the "B" wave I mentioned and the SPX did NOT break 1272.
Next time, however, the bulls will not be in happy land.
April 2008 follows the Armstrong date of March 22nd where the BUSINESS cycle is expected to shift.
FOR Now
Jay
Didn't get 288 points but damn close
I dont have all my data yet, so will make some comments and more tomorrow
The Market hit a LOW yesterday afternoon at 2.42pm- sound Familiar? I'll answer that for you Yes -
Friday , Mar 7th @ 2.44 did the same thing. At that juncture it was 168 bars
This Friday was @ 102 bars, BOTH out of sync with what I would normally expect, until I looked a little deeper.
March 7th @ 168 bars was followed by 90 b@ on Mon@ 3:55 pm, the low @ 259 bars = BINGO.
This time we have a completed cycle @ 259 bars @ 10:15 am on the 14th leading to a low @ 2;42 @ 55 bars, again seemingly out of sync. One added feature this week was a high tide @ 2:51 pm
What remains to be seen is monday's open; according to the bar counts, it should start the day lower
till 11am @ 90 bars
Whats even more amazing is the coming 204bars at 2pm on Fed day, a low just b4 the announcment.
So what did actually happen. WE got the "B" wave I mentioned and the SPX did NOT break 1272.
Next time, however, the bulls will not be in happy land.
April 2008 follows the Armstrong date of March 22nd where the BUSINESS cycle is expected to shift.
FOR Now
Jay
Friday, March 14, 2008
Instant gratification
Thats the way i like to make $$$
bot the qqqpr at 1.88 and in less than 10 minutes its up 10%
Later
Jay
bot the qqqpr at 1.88 and in less than 10 minutes its up 10%
Later
Jay
Futures flip
CPI accompanied a flip to up on the futures.
Today should be the exact reverse of yesterday
I dont know how long the uptrend will lasst, but I think we can look for spx 1330, and dow near 12,300.
I know I will be buying puts at those levels or sooner.
bar cycles today
259bars @ 11am, usually considered a low, but on occasion it provides a turn, and if making a high at 10:30, then i would suspect its possible the turn would then occur at 11am.
60 bars cycle @ 4pm, and that could spill over to Monday's open
Monday should repeat the 10th.
Jay
Hi Trinity, thanks for your support, and I love your name, assuming your a female, if not then forget I mentioned it.
It does appear I am making a lot less mistakes than in 2006, and hopefully I can get even better.
Pass the word - more people should benefit
Today should be the exact reverse of yesterday
I dont know how long the uptrend will lasst, but I think we can look for spx 1330, and dow near 12,300.
I know I will be buying puts at those levels or sooner.
bar cycles today
259bars @ 11am, usually considered a low, but on occasion it provides a turn, and if making a high at 10:30, then i would suspect its possible the turn would then occur at 11am.
60 bars cycle @ 4pm, and that could spill over to Monday's open
Monday should repeat the 10th.
Jay
Hi Trinity, thanks for your support, and I love your name, assuming your a female, if not then forget I mentioned it.
It does appear I am making a lot less mistakes than in 2006, and hopefully I can get even better.
Pass the word - more people should benefit
Thursday, March 13, 2008
Nicely done
Waves 1,2,3,4, and 5 today completes wave "A" of an abc retracement to spx 1355 next week
however, IN between the bears will take control tomorrow and Monday
We got to 1333 from 1272 = 60 pts
60 X 38.2 % = 24 spx points down = 200 dow points and we got that intraday today.
OR 50% = 30 pts = 240 dow
**********Or 62% = 36pts = dow 288, more probable *******
.That would complete the "B" wave, then the bigger runup induced by the Fed on Tuesday and Wed
Now I dont mean to give the FEd that much credit- They just happen to be doing things at a time when it is cohesive to the markets. Or when the wave count matches their efforts.
Jaywiz Index today = .28, i would consider this a minor sell
CBOE pc ratio = 1.22, a bit over sold , but not the 1.48 of monday
OEX pc ratio surprisingly high at 1.39
My propietary ratios are not indicating anything important.
Jay
however, IN between the bears will take control tomorrow and Monday
We got to 1333 from 1272 = 60 pts
60 X 38.2 % = 24 spx points down = 200 dow points and we got that intraday today.
OR 50% = 30 pts = 240 dow
**********Or 62% = 36pts = dow 288, more probable *******
.That would complete the "B" wave, then the bigger runup induced by the Fed on Tuesday and Wed
Now I dont mean to give the FEd that much credit- They just happen to be doing things at a time when it is cohesive to the markets. Or when the wave count matches their efforts.
Jaywiz Index today = .28, i would consider this a minor sell
CBOE pc ratio = 1.22, a bit over sold , but not the 1.48 of monday
OEX pc ratio surprisingly high at 1.39
My propietary ratios are not indicating anything important.
Jay
Wednesday, March 12, 2008
Spx 1333
SPX1333 @11am -First target hit and backed off
Coy, Midnite tide day is really the only one that counts and that hits tonight- Not sure yet if it will record today's spx 1333 as the high of the week or if it will occur at the open as some of my other data suggests.- I'll know a little more in the AM
Larry Tomlinson has done some research on tides, and has shown that the important days such as Jan 22nd had the lowest lowtide of the month. He also shows march 9th had the lowest low for March, and of course we know that didnt work, expect for the day after.
OK, so its NOT an exact science(G), but we already knew that, right?
The rally up from march 10th so far has the look of 1-2-3-4, now waiting for 5 as the first wave up off the lows. as other evidence of wave 4, the 156 bar cycle was @ 4pm, & that was close enuf for govt work.
NOw, that means 180B hits at 11:30 am so IF there is going to be a spurt up, it should occur b4 or after that time zone. If b4, then look for highs @ 10am, if after then look for 2pm.
The Jaywiz index was only a .17 on Tuesday, and thus would not be denied its due, therefore the lower close. Today its @ .37, and thats quite an improvment with the oex pc ratio @ 1.66, and CBOE pc ratio at 1.09 , thus all 3 indicate possible upside day.
There is a conflict with the above summation when I review geological data, but some of it is still coming in, and I wont have a good fix until the am.
best for now
Jay
Coy, Midnite tide day is really the only one that counts and that hits tonight- Not sure yet if it will record today's spx 1333 as the high of the week or if it will occur at the open as some of my other data suggests.- I'll know a little more in the AM
Larry Tomlinson has done some research on tides, and has shown that the important days such as Jan 22nd had the lowest lowtide of the month. He also shows march 9th had the lowest low for March, and of course we know that didnt work, expect for the day after.
OK, so its NOT an exact science(G), but we already knew that, right?
The rally up from march 10th so far has the look of 1-2-3-4, now waiting for 5 as the first wave up off the lows. as other evidence of wave 4, the 156 bar cycle was @ 4pm, & that was close enuf for govt work.
NOw, that means 180B hits at 11:30 am so IF there is going to be a spurt up, it should occur b4 or after that time zone. If b4, then look for highs @ 10am, if after then look for 2pm.
The Jaywiz index was only a .17 on Tuesday, and thus would not be denied its due, therefore the lower close. Today its @ .37, and thats quite an improvment with the oex pc ratio @ 1.66, and CBOE pc ratio at 1.09 , thus all 3 indicate possible upside day.
There is a conflict with the above summation when I review geological data, but some of it is still coming in, and I wont have a good fix until the am.
best for now
Jay
Tuesday, March 11, 2008
Where to now, oh brown cow?
Hmmm, Jaywiz Index =.17 caution flag is OUT
It doesnt seem that they would just stop right here
Arms index was only .59
8/1 Up vol
4.8 Adv over declines
however that jaywiz index and atmospheric pressure reading indicate some backing off tomorrow
Initial resistence is at 1343.75 spx, and if they open with a burst to that level, they will probably spend the rest of the day in lethargy.
98% UP volume should lead to further gains, and Im still expecting Thursday to provide a high in the spx 1355 area.
Jay
It doesnt seem that they would just stop right here
Arms index was only .59
8/1 Up vol
4.8 Adv over declines
however that jaywiz index and atmospheric pressure reading indicate some backing off tomorrow
Initial resistence is at 1343.75 spx, and if they open with a burst to that level, they will probably spend the rest of the day in lethargy.
98% UP volume should lead to further gains, and Im still expecting Thursday to provide a high in the spx 1355 area.
Jay
Fantastic rebound
March 10 = 55 trade days from Dec17 a low
= 34 tr days from jan 22nd low, actually 33 days
March 20 = 55 tr days from Dec31
= 34 trade days from Feb 1st -- both highs & This should also be a high
April 11= 55 tr days from jan 23 - a low
= 32 tr days from Feb 27, a high
April 11th is on radar for a low
may 2 = 39 tr days from March 10, a low
= 55 tr days from Feb13, a high
Todays 30 bar cycle low was @ noon and extended to 1pm
Tomorrow
90 bar cycle @ 10;30
126 bars @ 1:30
156 bars @ 4pm
Tomorrow should be a little sluggish, but they might start out with an initial burst.
expect spx 1330 to 1350 on Thursday, probably at 2:05pm
best wishes
Jay
= 34 tr days from jan 22nd low, actually 33 days
March 20 = 55 tr days from Dec31
= 34 trade days from Feb 1st -- both highs & This should also be a high
April 11= 55 tr days from jan 23 - a low
= 32 tr days from Feb 27, a high
April 11th is on radar for a low
may 2 = 39 tr days from March 10, a low
= 55 tr days from Feb13, a high
Todays 30 bar cycle low was @ noon and extended to 1pm
Tomorrow
90 bar cycle @ 10;30
126 bars @ 1:30
156 bars @ 4pm
Tomorrow should be a little sluggish, but they might start out with an initial burst.
expect spx 1330 to 1350 on Thursday, probably at 2:05pm
best wishes
Jay
That was a SERIOUS LOW
But how far can they go up??
If I look at the spx, and match up with the Jan 23 low of 1270 to today @ 1272, then we might want to say that was all wave 1 from October 9th to March 10., and 150 calendar days. or 110 trade days.
Does that mean something? I really dont know, but Im just looking at the symetry.
About 90% of my data signalled a low yesterday
the Jaywiz index = .32: NOt a screaming buy, but certainly no where near .14 of Friday.
259 bars did hit right at 3:55pm at spx 1272.66
When is the high? you ask; preliminary data indicates Thursday's close.
Spx 1576-1272 = 300pts rounded off, the same as the Jan 23rd intraday, but this time on close, and that is also beautiful symetry- Will that level hold? Absolutely NOT !!!!
But for now we should see the rebound move up to the following levels:
300 pts X 40% = 120+ 1270 = 1370 to 1390 maybe next weeks high on Jan 19th after the Feb cuts rates by .75 to 1.00%
300 pts x 23. 6% = 70 + 1270 = 1340 - maybe thursday's high
Fascinating how this is all taking place as we approach that infamous Armstrong date of March 20, 2008- What does it represent? Its supposed to be a transition from one economic stage to another.
SO, if stocks, OIl, Gold, Commodities all hit high points on or b4 that date, what happens after?
Put another way, if wave 1 completed yesterday,and wave 2 completes on Mar19th, then whats next is OBVIOUSLY The most infamous WAVE 3.
April is setup with 2 sets of Hard aspect clusters
April 6 to 11th
April 22 to 25
Because they are clusters, there is stronger harmonics at each one of those points
April 10 would then = 180 calendar days, = 13.5 ^ and April 25 = 194 days.= 14 ^
Best Wises
Jay
If I look at the spx, and match up with the Jan 23 low of 1270 to today @ 1272, then we might want to say that was all wave 1 from October 9th to March 10., and 150 calendar days. or 110 trade days.
Does that mean something? I really dont know, but Im just looking at the symetry.
About 90% of my data signalled a low yesterday
the Jaywiz index = .32: NOt a screaming buy, but certainly no where near .14 of Friday.
259 bars did hit right at 3:55pm at spx 1272.66
When is the high? you ask; preliminary data indicates Thursday's close.
Spx 1576-1272 = 300pts rounded off, the same as the Jan 23rd intraday, but this time on close, and that is also beautiful symetry- Will that level hold? Absolutely NOT !!!!
But for now we should see the rebound move up to the following levels:
300 pts X 40% = 120+ 1270 = 1370 to 1390 maybe next weeks high on Jan 19th after the Feb cuts rates by .75 to 1.00%
300 pts x 23. 6% = 70 + 1270 = 1340 - maybe thursday's high
Fascinating how this is all taking place as we approach that infamous Armstrong date of March 20, 2008- What does it represent? Its supposed to be a transition from one economic stage to another.
SO, if stocks, OIl, Gold, Commodities all hit high points on or b4 that date, what happens after?
Put another way, if wave 1 completed yesterday,and wave 2 completes on Mar19th, then whats next is OBVIOUSLY The most infamous WAVE 3.
April is setup with 2 sets of Hard aspect clusters
April 6 to 11th
April 22 to 25
Because they are clusters, there is stronger harmonics at each one of those points
April 10 would then = 180 calendar days, = 13.5 ^ and April 25 = 194 days.= 14 ^
Best Wises
Jay
Monday, March 10, 2008
Jaywiz index
So far the Jaywiz Index @.14 on Friday told the story for today against all odds of making a lower low today.
Its 12:10 pm, and the spx is -13.87 @ 1280
bar counts today
11;30 - noon = 204 - 201 bars and so far it looks like the AM low @ 1279, maybe.
228bars @ 1;30 is next important low point, and we will see is it makes a lower low or fails to do so at that time.
Also 259 bars hits @ 4pm OR the open @ 9:35 am on Tuesday
Oil, and gold should start signifigant declines most likely on March 29th. & April should be a bearish month for both.
Best Wishes
Jay
Its 12:10 pm, and the spx is -13.87 @ 1280
bar counts today
11;30 - noon = 204 - 201 bars and so far it looks like the AM low @ 1279, maybe.
228bars @ 1;30 is next important low point, and we will see is it makes a lower low or fails to do so at that time.
Also 259 bars hits @ 4pm OR the open @ 9:35 am on Tuesday
Oil, and gold should start signifigant declines most likely on March 29th. & April should be a bearish month for both.
Best Wishes
Jay
Sunday, March 09, 2008
What about next week ?
Dire predictions of a great fall?? --- I doubt it.
Even tho the Jaywiz Index was a .14, I think the negative effect will effect ONLY the open in the first 5 minutes.
As I look at the wave action friday, it looks as if the last hour could be counted as a wave 4, and part of Wv 5 which should OPEN monday on the previous low or above at or near 1283.
Most everything else I am looking at is pointing toward a rebound thru at least Wed.
Bar counts for Friday were strange and probably offset by the new moon @ 12:15 where there was a low point.
the day did open - 100 AT an unusual 102 bar cycle
Even the low of the day @ 2:44, hit at 168bars, and again not my usual count
Now the end of the day was 180bars, and as I have mentioned many times b4, that cycle could effect the next day's open, thus my projection above.
Most of my TECHNCAIL internal readings are oversold and have been since Tuesday's close, but that doesnt mean we get an instant rally.
Now that weve had 4 days of oversold readings, it should work well the next 3 days other than the open on Monday. many of the ratios that I have developped are indicating a bounce also.
Dates for March
March 7th LOW
March 12 high
March 17th low
March 19 high
march 20 low
march 25 early day high
march 26th low
march TOP
As you can see its a very complicated month
Best Wishes
Jay
Even tho the Jaywiz Index was a .14, I think the negative effect will effect ONLY the open in the first 5 minutes.
As I look at the wave action friday, it looks as if the last hour could be counted as a wave 4, and part of Wv 5 which should OPEN monday on the previous low or above at or near 1283.
Most everything else I am looking at is pointing toward a rebound thru at least Wed.
Bar counts for Friday were strange and probably offset by the new moon @ 12:15 where there was a low point.
the day did open - 100 AT an unusual 102 bar cycle
Even the low of the day @ 2:44, hit at 168bars, and again not my usual count
Now the end of the day was 180bars, and as I have mentioned many times b4, that cycle could effect the next day's open, thus my projection above.
Most of my TECHNCAIL internal readings are oversold and have been since Tuesday's close, but that doesnt mean we get an instant rally.
Now that weve had 4 days of oversold readings, it should work well the next 3 days other than the open on Monday. many of the ratios that I have developped are indicating a bounce also.
Dates for March
March 7th LOW
March 12 high
March 17th low
March 19 high
march 20 low
march 25 early day high
march 26th low
march TOP
As you can see its a very complicated month
Best Wishes
Jay
Friday, March 07, 2008
Was that the LOW?
I did ask that question b4, but this time it looks like the open hit @ 102 bars, and unusual cycle point, but leads me to look for another bar hit @ 126 at 11:30am
As I pointed out, the Mars 180 Pluto had its effects at the open, and was in charge all day yesterday.
Obviously, there should be some back and fill today, with the biggest gains on Monday, and Tuesday.
It is possible the 180 bar cycle @ 4pm COULD hold out for the low of the day, but I wouldnt count on it.
The NEXT 2 weeks thru March 28th appear to have bullish overtones.
Best Wishes
Jay
As I pointed out, the Mars 180 Pluto had its effects at the open, and was in charge all day yesterday.
Obviously, there should be some back and fill today, with the biggest gains on Monday, and Tuesday.
It is possible the 180 bar cycle @ 4pm COULD hold out for the low of the day, but I wouldnt count on it.
The NEXT 2 weeks thru March 28th appear to have bullish overtones.
Best Wishes
Jay
Thursday, March 06, 2008
mars still in control
might be a day too early to get bullish;
Tech data says go, but 180 apsect says no.
Mars 180 Pluto still in control until wee hours tomorrow
New moon at noon could still be a problem also
Jay
Tech data says go, but 180 apsect says no.
Mars 180 Pluto still in control until wee hours tomorrow
New moon at noon could still be a problem also
Jay
Looks like an upday
most of the things I look at in the AM seem to be indicating a strong upday today
Excpect for 30 bars cycle low at the open which appears to be signalling a mild lower open,
other times today are
60b @ noon
90B @ 2.30
I would then be looking for a much weaker open on friday, but also a good close, as mentioned b4, and very strong Monday follow thru, and a little more on Tuesday
Bradley date is the 8th which is a Saturday, thus monday is nnt out of the question for the actual high.
Jay
Excpect for 30 bars cycle low at the open which appears to be signalling a mild lower open,
other times today are
60b @ noon
90B @ 2.30
I would then be looking for a much weaker open on friday, but also a good close, as mentioned b4, and very strong Monday follow thru, and a little more on Tuesday
Bradley date is the 8th which is a Saturday, thus monday is nnt out of the question for the actual high.
Jay
Wednesday, March 05, 2008
See- Saw
Did I say march 5th would be UP, YES I DID
Did i say it wouldnt be easy- YES I DID
Many of my ratios did give a short term buy yesterday and that should be good till march 14th.
However, it still wont be that easy;
Looks like a high tomorrow @ 2:15pm
there are bar cycle hits
60 bars @ noon
90 bars @ 2:30
I am still expecting friday to open lower, but close well leading to a very strong rally on Monday & Tuesday- spx should get to 1355 or more.
After Tuesday, it should hang or back off slightly, then topping on the 14th.
Big $$ can then be made on the market with a lower bias 14th close thru the 20th.
Even a .50bp rate cut will only account for an initial knee jerk up, but it wont hold.
Even good news during a stressful time period is bad news.
Jaywiz index today = .46 and thats quite a change from .13
not quite a raging buy, but its matching the other signals indicating an uptrend ,or at least a short term buying spree.
Best To All
Jay
Did i say it wouldnt be easy- YES I DID
Many of my ratios did give a short term buy yesterday and that should be good till march 14th.
However, it still wont be that easy;
Looks like a high tomorrow @ 2:15pm
there are bar cycle hits
60 bars @ noon
90 bars @ 2:30
I am still expecting friday to open lower, but close well leading to a very strong rally on Monday & Tuesday- spx should get to 1355 or more.
After Tuesday, it should hang or back off slightly, then topping on the 14th.
Big $$ can then be made on the market with a lower bias 14th close thru the 20th.
Even a .50bp rate cut will only account for an initial knee jerk up, but it wont hold.
Even good news during a stressful time period is bad news.
Jaywiz index today = .46 and thats quite a change from .13
not quite a raging buy, but its matching the other signals indicating an uptrend ,or at least a short term buying spree.
Best To All
Jay
March 5th and were Up
just as I projected earlier this week, march 5th is an up day.
Yes Sadie, and Steve
CBOE pc ratios @ 1.24 and 1.20 last 2 days seem to be overiding the OEX pc ratios at .77&.80
However, that wont last longer than today.
Jaywiz Index @ .13 still indicating more selling.
Now today, you will see the CBOE ratio drop under 1.00.
Typically, the OEX pc DAILY ratios under 1.00 are bearish. it means more call buying than put buying and that is a contrarian indication. I dont keep a 5 or 10 day ave, but ive been recording them daily for at least 5 years.
From the Feb 27th HIGH, I'm counting March 4th close as Elliott wave minuette 3, now looking for minuette4 today, and 5 tomorrow into friday at about noon which completes minor wave 1.
thanks for the feedback
I am on several yahoo financial group sites where discussions are directed to short term trading, and I do get a lot of information daily. yesterday one of the Elliotticians issued a buy order right at 2pm, just after i wrote my last update, and it was good to see a confirmation of my own outlook from another analsyst.
Jay
Yes Sadie, and Steve
CBOE pc ratios @ 1.24 and 1.20 last 2 days seem to be overiding the OEX pc ratios at .77&.80
However, that wont last longer than today.
Jaywiz Index @ .13 still indicating more selling.
Now today, you will see the CBOE ratio drop under 1.00.
Typically, the OEX pc DAILY ratios under 1.00 are bearish. it means more call buying than put buying and that is a contrarian indication. I dont keep a 5 or 10 day ave, but ive been recording them daily for at least 5 years.
From the Feb 27th HIGH, I'm counting March 4th close as Elliott wave minuette 3, now looking for minuette4 today, and 5 tomorrow into friday at about noon which completes minor wave 1.
thanks for the feedback
I am on several yahoo financial group sites where discussions are directed to short term trading, and I do get a lot of information daily. yesterday one of the Elliotticians issued a buy order right at 2pm, just after i wrote my last update, and it was good to see a confirmation of my own outlook from another analsyst.
Jay
Tuesday, March 04, 2008
Was that the low ??
JAYWIZ Index says ____ NO___ recorded @ .13 & very very bearish
More selling to come, but Im still looking for that March 5th intraday high
Once again with the mars 180 pluto and new moon hitting @ noon on 7th, it appears that the 6th and part of the 7th will sell off.
If the market recovers late Friday like today or better, that opens the door for a very good Monday and Tuesday which already have impressive bullish readings.
Mar 180 pluto = RED ALERT according to those who predict such things.
OEX pc ratio aslo bearish @ .80 and was .77 yesterday
Vix still has room to get closer to 30.00
Gold collapsed today, dow usually follows.
Best wishes
Jay
More selling to come, but Im still looking for that March 5th intraday high
Once again with the mars 180 pluto and new moon hitting @ noon on 7th, it appears that the 6th and part of the 7th will sell off.
If the market recovers late Friday like today or better, that opens the door for a very good Monday and Tuesday which already have impressive bullish readings.
Mar 180 pluto = RED ALERT according to those who predict such things.
OEX pc ratio aslo bearish @ .80 and was .77 yesterday
Vix still has room to get closer to 30.00
Gold collapsed today, dow usually follows.
Best wishes
Jay
Monday, March 03, 2008
This week 3/7
HI Peter, yes I do refer to WCA
Hi Sadie - 55 trade days can complete low to high, low to low, etc.
Now got
Mar7th high
march 14 higher
March 21 low
Mar 28 high
April 11 major low
Still got Wed march 5th as a short term high <>
DO be careful about the 6th. WCA shows both 6th and7th as DOWN
Charts edge shows both 6 and 7 as UP
WELL now, they both cant be right, so whats it gonna be.
MY WORK indicates a sell off on the 6th, and then a strong Rally on the 7th
Early hours of 7th has a mars 180 Pluto = RED ALERT for the 6th.
Bradley is the 8th and should be a high
Jaywiz index today is .36-still low or bearish, but not an outright sell which has occured under .20
CBOE pc ratio = 1.24 and friday was 1.27, both typically bullish
OEX pc ratio = .77 and thats quite bearish
Vix @ 26.20, NO buy signal there
90 B cycle hit today @ 11:30
126B cycle hit 30 minutes late @ 3pm
Tomorrow
156 B @ 11 am
180 B @1pm
204 B @ 3 pm
Best Wishes
Jay
Hi Sadie - 55 trade days can complete low to high, low to low, etc.
Now got
Mar7th high
march 14 higher
March 21 low
Mar 28 high
April 11 major low
Still got Wed march 5th as a short term high <>
DO be careful about the 6th. WCA shows both 6th and7th as DOWN
Charts edge shows both 6 and 7 as UP
WELL now, they both cant be right, so whats it gonna be.
MY WORK indicates a sell off on the 6th, and then a strong Rally on the 7th
Early hours of 7th has a mars 180 Pluto = RED ALERT for the 6th.
Bradley is the 8th and should be a high
Jaywiz index today is .36-still low or bearish, but not an outright sell which has occured under .20
CBOE pc ratio = 1.24 and friday was 1.27, both typically bullish
OEX pc ratio = .77 and thats quite bearish
Vix @ 26.20, NO buy signal there
90 B cycle hit today @ 11:30
126B cycle hit 30 minutes late @ 3pm
Tomorrow
156 B @ 11 am
180 B @1pm
204 B @ 3 pm
Best Wishes
Jay
Saturday, March 01, 2008
Cycles
Feb 28/29 = 55 trade days from the DEc 10th low
Also using a 1/2 cycle from Jan 22/23 = 27 trade days
March 5th = 55 trade days from the Dec17th high
the month of March
March 5th = a high
March 7th a Low gravitational low due this week
March 14th = a high = 55 trade days from Dec 31st a, high
April11th a MAJOR - MAJOR LOW
Jaywiz Index for Friday = .28, not very bullish, but certainly not the same as Thursday@.17
So far its been quite consistent within an 80% ratio
It augmented other tech readings such as:
5day arms @ 76.6, a sell Jumped Now to 116.8
5 day trin = 383, a sell jumped now to 584
10 day trin=877, a sell now to 1065
those readings are not screaming BUY signals,but have taken out the danger signs, or so it would seem
Best for now
Jay
Also using a 1/2 cycle from Jan 22/23 = 27 trade days
March 5th = 55 trade days from the Dec17th high
the month of March
March 5th = a high
March 7th a Low gravitational low due this week
March 14th = a high = 55 trade days from Dec 31st a, high
April11th a MAJOR - MAJOR LOW
Jaywiz Index for Friday = .28, not very bullish, but certainly not the same as Thursday@.17
So far its been quite consistent within an 80% ratio
It augmented other tech readings such as:
5day arms @ 76.6, a sell Jumped Now to 116.8
5 day trin = 383, a sell jumped now to 584
10 day trin=877, a sell now to 1065
those readings are not screaming BUY signals,but have taken out the danger signs, or so it would seem
Best for now
Jay
Friday, February 29, 2008
jaywiz index
The jaywiz index recorded a low # today @ .15
thats a sell for today, but also look for a low point to buy some calls for a high on march 5th.
jay
thats a sell for today, but also look for a low point to buy some calls for a high on march 5th.
jay
Thursday, February 28, 2008
Its cold in Fla
42 degrees during my walk at 9am- brrr
good thing we have the sun shining its warmth- we usually hide from it, (G)
All my signals are on a sell for today, Feb 28
times are
10;30am
1pm
3;30 pm
Expect rebound tomorrow
would like tosee a lower open Friday, but i tend to doubt they will be that accomodating.
Jay
good thing we have the sun shining its warmth- we usually hide from it, (G)
All my signals are on a sell for today, Feb 28
times are
10;30am
1pm
3;30 pm
Expect rebound tomorrow
would like tosee a lower open Friday, but i tend to doubt they will be that accomodating.
Jay
Wednesday, February 27, 2008
8 day cycle
I wrote 2/6 for the 8 day cycle and I meant 2/26 yesterday on close.
BUT one of my associates is counting 8days as one day after my count as intraday which means
today
that means the next 8 day cycle is March 10th intrday, but on close could be Friday March 7th on close. High or low,? you ask ? good question.
Im placing March 6th midday as a high, thus the 7th should be a low, and there is a new moon at noon:15.
Jaywiz index = .53 and is marginally a buy, but we will see what it posts today.
Best Wishes
Jay
BUT one of my associates is counting 8days as one day after my count as intraday which means
today
that means the next 8 day cycle is March 10th intrday, but on close could be Friday March 7th on close. High or low,? you ask ? good question.
Im placing March 6th midday as a high, thus the 7th should be a low, and there is a new moon at noon:15.
Jaywiz index = .53 and is marginally a buy, but we will see what it posts today.
Best Wishes
Jay
Over the top
8 day high hit yesterday at mid day- funny how a major power outage ocurred in Fla right at 1:05pm
futures down strongly and could open lower and become an outside day with a lower low;
180 bars cycle @ 10:30 am
204b @ 12:30
228b @2.30
Was out last 2 days as family energency took me away from home base.
2/6 = 8 day cycle and it appears to have been a high
previous 8day cycles = 2/13 high--- 2/1high-----1/22low
Next 8 trade day cycle = May 7th
13 tr day cycle 2/21 = was a low
then March 11th should be a high, but im looking for it on March 14th
As for today and tomorrow, Im looking for a lot lower trading and the exact low should hit Thruday at the close.
Friday should be AUSPICIOUS. Its UP and away to at least March 4th or 5th b4 any selling of concern sets in.
Best Wishes
Jay
futures down strongly and could open lower and become an outside day with a lower low;
180 bars cycle @ 10:30 am
204b @ 12:30
228b @2.30
Was out last 2 days as family energency took me away from home base.
2/6 = 8 day cycle and it appears to have been a high
previous 8day cycles = 2/13 high--- 2/1high-----1/22low
Next 8 trade day cycle = May 7th
13 tr day cycle 2/21 = was a low
then March 11th should be a high, but im looking for it on March 14th
As for today and tomorrow, Im looking for a lot lower trading and the exact low should hit Thruday at the close.
Friday should be AUSPICIOUS. Its UP and away to at least March 4th or 5th b4 any selling of concern sets in.
Best Wishes
Jay
Sunday, February 24, 2008
What rally?
The rally last friday in the last hour retraced 200 points on the dow.
Was that the rally I was expecting for Monday??
Im seeing that as a distinct possibility
Therefore, I am going to short ANY upside open within the first 30 minutes to one hour.- this is assuming it opens higher.
If it opens lower, they always rebound somewhat, and that point would be my signal to buy puts.
Im using the Q's as they are easy to trade and easy to follow.
Jaywiz Index = .33, not hugely bearish, but certainly NOT bullish as it is nowhere near the .50level required to consider a bullish day.
OEX pc ratio also a little bearish @ .90, but add that to a 5 or 10 day aver onto yesterday's .54 level.
CBOE pc ratio @ 1.15 would usually be bullish, but we are in a downtrend until the 28th, IMO, and those levels are not very bullish just yet.
Jay
Was that the rally I was expecting for Monday??
Im seeing that as a distinct possibility
Therefore, I am going to short ANY upside open within the first 30 minutes to one hour.- this is assuming it opens higher.
If it opens lower, they always rebound somewhat, and that point would be my signal to buy puts.
Im using the Q's as they are easy to trade and easy to follow.
Jaywiz Index = .33, not hugely bearish, but certainly NOT bullish as it is nowhere near the .50level required to consider a bullish day.
OEX pc ratio also a little bearish @ .90, but add that to a 5 or 10 day aver onto yesterday's .54 level.
CBOE pc ratio @ 1.15 would usually be bullish, but we are in a downtrend until the 28th, IMO, and those levels are not very bullish just yet.
Jay
Friday, February 22, 2008
Almost
Im really upset with myself
I pegged the bar count at 4pm today as the low off an earlier 90b cycle @ 11:15am
The LOW hit at 3pm; WHY; its easy when you go back after the fact. -- yesterday hit a 259 bar low at 3:15, ADDING 70 bars = a complete cycle of 329 and bingo at 3pm---GRRR;
Still made $$$, but not nearly as much
Getting ready to buy the open Monday which "SHOULD" open lower as maybe disappointment over the AMBAC issue not resolving over the weekend, but the afternoon calls for a financial boon
So, what we didnt make today will have to wait for Monday
Jay
I pegged the bar count at 4pm today as the low off an earlier 90b cycle @ 11:15am
The LOW hit at 3pm; WHY; its easy when you go back after the fact. -- yesterday hit a 259 bar low at 3:15, ADDING 70 bars = a complete cycle of 329 and bingo at 3pm---GRRR;
Still made $$$, but not nearly as much
Getting ready to buy the open Monday which "SHOULD" open lower as maybe disappointment over the AMBAC issue not resolving over the weekend, but the afternoon calls for a financial boon
So, what we didnt make today will have to wait for Monday
Jay
flat Futures today
Flat to somewhat lower at the open.
indications leading me to look for lower all day today, and starting out Monday at a low point, but Monday and Tuesday AM should be a good day for the bulls, BUT NOT today.
thanks to the many who are asking for additonal info by email.
Start with the foundation for study of cycles
Keep a daily record of major stock indeces and write down your thoughts for the day to see if they coincide with the days events- How did you feel today? what did you trade? how did it do? If you dont question why& how, you will never be able to make a change.
I am an obsever, not only of stocks, but also whats going on around you. Sounds and make up of natural noises during the day, even.sireens, etc. Many who are in public service can tell you about full moon effect, but there's a lot more that goes on behind the scenes.
Even the FEd reserve now has documents relating to geomag changes in pressure leading to the advance and decline in stock prices.
google search's can bring you to sites that have info. start with
http://www.tatalk.blogspot.com/
&
http://www.slopeofhope.com/
ive been thinking about putting together a booklet that might be called tech analysis for dummies, including me. I had something in 1992, and sold it over the web, but got caught up in a very lucrative job. maybe its time to reinvent that booklet.
Best Wishes
Jay
indications leading me to look for lower all day today, and starting out Monday at a low point, but Monday and Tuesday AM should be a good day for the bulls, BUT NOT today.
thanks to the many who are asking for additonal info by email.
Start with the foundation for study of cycles
Keep a daily record of major stock indeces and write down your thoughts for the day to see if they coincide with the days events- How did you feel today? what did you trade? how did it do? If you dont question why& how, you will never be able to make a change.
I am an obsever, not only of stocks, but also whats going on around you. Sounds and make up of natural noises during the day, even.sireens, etc. Many who are in public service can tell you about full moon effect, but there's a lot more that goes on behind the scenes.
Even the FEd reserve now has documents relating to geomag changes in pressure leading to the advance and decline in stock prices.
google search's can bring you to sites that have info. start with
http://www.tatalk.blogspot.com/
&
http://www.slopeofhope.com/
ive been thinking about putting together a booklet that might be called tech analysis for dummies, including me. I had something in 1992, and sold it over the web, but got caught up in a very lucrative job. maybe its time to reinvent that booklet.
Best Wishes
Jay
Thursday, February 21, 2008
Counting bars
Counting bars without stopping for a beer is really tough (GG)
Today hit 204b @ 10.45 and was 15 minutes late
228 b @ 12.45 was 45 minutes late
that threw off the 259 bar cycle which now projects to occur @ 3:15 and it did exactly that.
Today was just s difficult as any other day but they still fell into line and provided the down day I was looking for just as my JAYWIZ index @ .17 projected.
Today's Jaywiz INDEX is .23 and also very bearish as is
CBOE PC ratio @ .96
OEX pc ratio @ and amazing .54
SPX 500 pc ratio = 1.34
All of the above are screaming SELL SELL SELL
However, I dont think it will be that easy.
Im still expecting an UP open to rebuy a put position that I sold for an 18% gain
Adjusted bar cycles on the 21st:
60b @ 11am
90B @ 1:30, and I think this will be the low of the day
120 b @ 4pm is usually held over to 126b which would be @ 10 am on Monday
Best Wishes
PS, Thanks for your note, Peter; i'll try to keep up the good work. Science has contributed greatly to my accuracy, and we all know just how hard it is to do that on a day to day basis, and YES, I do mess up at times, but my record the past 4 months has been better than 90%/ I think I missed about 5 days within that time period.
I keep daily hand written records of the daily dow, spx, nasdaq, gold,sliver $, & oil & any notes such as bar counts.
I also have 2 spread sheets with some mathematical formulas,multiple cycles, astro data, bar counts, solar effect levels, & another set of sheets recording daily pressure & gravitational readings;
This has been a work in progress, and Im amazed each time I find something new to me that shows me the Money
Jay
Today hit 204b @ 10.45 and was 15 minutes late
228 b @ 12.45 was 45 minutes late
that threw off the 259 bar cycle which now projects to occur @ 3:15 and it did exactly that.
Today was just s difficult as any other day but they still fell into line and provided the down day I was looking for just as my JAYWIZ index @ .17 projected.
Today's Jaywiz INDEX is .23 and also very bearish as is
CBOE PC ratio @ .96
OEX pc ratio @ and amazing .54
SPX 500 pc ratio = 1.34
All of the above are screaming SELL SELL SELL
However, I dont think it will be that easy.
Im still expecting an UP open to rebuy a put position that I sold for an 18% gain
Adjusted bar cycles on the 21st:
60b @ 11am
90B @ 1:30, and I think this will be the low of the day
120 b @ 4pm is usually held over to 126b which would be @ 10 am on Monday
Best Wishes
PS, Thanks for your note, Peter; i'll try to keep up the good work. Science has contributed greatly to my accuracy, and we all know just how hard it is to do that on a day to day basis, and YES, I do mess up at times, but my record the past 4 months has been better than 90%/ I think I missed about 5 days within that time period.
I keep daily hand written records of the daily dow, spx, nasdaq, gold,sliver $, & oil & any notes such as bar counts.
I also have 2 spread sheets with some mathematical formulas,multiple cycles, astro data, bar counts, solar effect levels, & another set of sheets recording daily pressure & gravitational readings;
This has been a work in progress, and Im amazed each time I find something new to me that shows me the Money
Jay
Wednesday, February 20, 2008
ZIG & Zag
Sounds like a broadway show(G)
just like I told someone, today's open was just the opposite of Tuesday, and so was the close
Eclipse and full moon are like the energizer bunny- they keep on going.
Jaywiz INDEX = .17 and that indicates selling tomorrow, day after full moon eclipse
Looking for a brief higher open
204 bars @ 10am, but 210b might be more important @ 10:30
228b next @ noon
259b @ 2:30, then moves up into close
Friday
60b @ 10am
90b @ 1pm
126b@ 3;30, then higher into close.
Is anyone recording these times other than me?
Best Wishes
Jay
just like I told someone, today's open was just the opposite of Tuesday, and so was the close
Eclipse and full moon are like the energizer bunny- they keep on going.
Jaywiz INDEX = .17 and that indicates selling tomorrow, day after full moon eclipse
Looking for a brief higher open
204 bars @ 10am, but 210b might be more important @ 10:30
228b next @ noon
259b @ 2:30, then moves up into close
Friday
60b @ 10am
90b @ 1pm
126b@ 3;30, then higher into close.
Is anyone recording these times other than me?
Best Wishes
Jay
Tuesday, February 19, 2008
abc x abc
where does this complex abc x abc wave END? and how high
We are in a correction pattern against a downtrend
So far they got to SPX 1316 and as high as SPX 1395
1575-1275= 300 pts
300 x 40%= 120
1275 + 120 = 1395
Next fibo level = 50% = 150 pts = spx 1420- very doable, but when? = March 14th is when.
Until March 7th its a game of give and take, or wild swings within a range from 1330 to 1370
today was picture perfect
lows hit @ 11am = 66 bars
@ 1pm , very minor dip = 90 bars
Venus 45 to Uranus @ 2;18 turned market into a dive,
and the next important bar count is 126b @ 10 am tomorrow
After which they can run it up till mid day before looking for the next bar cycle @ 180b = 3pm.
Best Wishes
Jay
We are in a correction pattern against a downtrend
So far they got to SPX 1316 and as high as SPX 1395
1575-1275= 300 pts
300 x 40%= 120
1275 + 120 = 1395
Next fibo level = 50% = 150 pts = spx 1420- very doable, but when? = March 14th is when.
Until March 7th its a game of give and take, or wild swings within a range from 1330 to 1370
today was picture perfect
lows hit @ 11am = 66 bars
@ 1pm , very minor dip = 90 bars
Venus 45 to Uranus @ 2;18 turned market into a dive,
and the next important bar count is 126b @ 10 am tomorrow
After which they can run it up till mid day before looking for the next bar cycle @ 180b = 3pm.
Best Wishes
Jay
Friday, February 15, 2008
Heading Lower
some of what I wrote got left out???
Today is the 15th and so far we got a 10 am low, now waiting for noon to noon:30
I am hoping for a 1pm high to buy puts and HOLD over the long weekend- this is something not usually recommended but this time all indications show a lower close today and more selling on the 19th.
20th does show a strong rebound as it is eclipse day
Low on 22nd should be the Feb low and might match with the Jan lows or lower.
Best wishes
Jay
Today is the 15th and so far we got a 10 am low, now waiting for noon to noon:30
I am hoping for a 1pm high to buy puts and HOLD over the long weekend- this is something not usually recommended but this time all indications show a lower close today and more selling on the 19th.
20th does show a strong rebound as it is eclipse day
Low on 22nd should be the Feb low and might match with the Jan lows or lower.
Best wishes
Jay
Thursday, February 14, 2008
Bar counts
Today's bar count was right on target, but still very hard to follow, but I'm managing;
Today
120bars @ 10.10 ---- this is usually 126 bars
156B @ 1:15 -------close to 160
174b @2.50pm -------close to 180
190 b @ 4pm ----------UNFINISHED biz tomorrow
FEb 15
204 Bars @ 10.30
228 bars @ 12:30
259 bars @ 3pm
One would think tomorrow would be the same as today, However, pressure readings dont agree with a down day, at least to start.
Heres my thinking.
first < 30pm =" 329">
.
Second.<>
I did well with puts today and sold out at 2:50pm.
I will be looking to get short again tomorrow on any rally between 10:30, and noon. Unless it opens with a rebound at the open, first 10 minutes, altho I dont see any reason why it should.
Best Wishes
Jay
Today
120bars @ 10.10 ---- this is usually 126 bars
156B @ 1:15 -------close to 160
174b @2.50pm -------close to 180
190 b @ 4pm ----------UNFINISHED biz tomorrow
FEb 15
204 Bars @ 10.30
228 bars @ 12:30
259 bars @ 3pm
One would think tomorrow would be the same as today, However, pressure readings dont agree with a down day, at least to start.
Heres my thinking.
first < 30pm =" 329">
.
Second.<>
I did well with puts today and sold out at 2:50pm.
I will be looking to get short again tomorrow on any rally between 10:30, and noon. Unless it opens with a rebound at the open, first 10 minutes, altho I dont see any reason why it should.
Best Wishes
Jay
Feb 13 = Bradley
It now appears obvious the Bradley date of Feb 13 might have provided a high.
I really should have been more aware of the turn at a high rather than a one day dip.
Feb8th did provide a low, and I was touting a rally on the 11th which was opposed by some of my associates, and the continuation on the 12th was no suprise, thus the 13th BRADLEY high should NOT have been a surprise.
Today should take some away from the high of yesterday but Friday will be an EXCELLENT shorting OPP for next week into an eclipse that is not only conj with the moon 0 saturn, but also a Sun 180 Saturn-- These are NOT happy combinations and human nature will not react well when it comes to stock prices.
There is a FED reserve study that shows people DO react to gravitational changes, and when it comes to stock decisions & tend to sell when the gravitational effects people in a negative fashion.
Ive mentioned this many times in the past. PEOPLE do not go out to BUY anything when they are feeling down or depressed, but tend to pull back and lock in.
Any rally on Friday should NOT exceed today's high whcih in Elliott waves might be setting up a wave 1 & 2 leaading to substantial declines next week.
Bar counts continue to be difficult to read, but I think Im getting a handle on the current track.
today, Im loooking for the following count:
126 bars @ 10:30am
160Bars @ 1.30
180 bars @ 3.15
Best Wishes
Jay
PS: Congrats to anonymous for being astute enuf to make his/her own trading desicions.
I really should have been more aware of the turn at a high rather than a one day dip.
Feb8th did provide a low, and I was touting a rally on the 11th which was opposed by some of my associates, and the continuation on the 12th was no suprise, thus the 13th BRADLEY high should NOT have been a surprise.
Today should take some away from the high of yesterday but Friday will be an EXCELLENT shorting OPP for next week into an eclipse that is not only conj with the moon 0 saturn, but also a Sun 180 Saturn-- These are NOT happy combinations and human nature will not react well when it comes to stock prices.
There is a FED reserve study that shows people DO react to gravitational changes, and when it comes to stock decisions & tend to sell when the gravitational effects people in a negative fashion.
Ive mentioned this many times in the past. PEOPLE do not go out to BUY anything when they are feeling down or depressed, but tend to pull back and lock in.
Any rally on Friday should NOT exceed today's high whcih in Elliott waves might be setting up a wave 1 & 2 leaading to substantial declines next week.
Bar counts continue to be difficult to read, but I think Im getting a handle on the current track.
today, Im loooking for the following count:
126 bars @ 10:30am
160Bars @ 1.30
180 bars @ 3.15
Best Wishes
Jay
PS: Congrats to anonymous for being astute enuf to make his/her own trading desicions.
Tuesday, February 12, 2008
Feb 13
Todays rally fizzled- didnt I mention that would happen
Tomorrow promisses to be quite bearish
oex -PC ratio yesterday was very bearish = .62, but today was more normal @ 1.43
so what are we to establish from that- out of sync???
Pressure readings have ALL fallen off from early highs corroborating a decline tomorrow
Its also FEB 13th the Bradley LOW, I have mentioned several times.
Gravitational readings are also dropping like a stone
the bar count has not been as consistent as in the past, but I think Im getting a handle on it-
Today was 102 b @ 1pm = a completed 329 from Friday.
Tomorrow is 60B @ 11;30
102 b @ 3pm
That should be the important low
Best Wishes
Jay
Tomorrow promisses to be quite bearish
oex -PC ratio yesterday was very bearish = .62, but today was more normal @ 1.43
so what are we to establish from that- out of sync???
Pressure readings have ALL fallen off from early highs corroborating a decline tomorrow
Its also FEB 13th the Bradley LOW, I have mentioned several times.
Gravitational readings are also dropping like a stone
the bar count has not been as consistent as in the past, but I think Im getting a handle on it-
Today was 102 b @ 1pm = a completed 329 from Friday.
Tomorrow is 60B @ 11;30
102 b @ 3pm
That should be the important low
Best Wishes
Jay
Monday, February 11, 2008
Slow start
Expecting a slow start this monday AM.
Pressure & gravitational readings are positive, but wont have much effect for the first part of Feb11th. ~~ 30 bars cycle @ 11am might do the trick.
However, the outcome should be positive for stocks later today and tomorrow FEb12th.
Expecting a high on either the 14 or 15th.
Monday is closed for Pres day, but Im not waiting for the 19th to get short, this time around.
Best Wishes
Pressure & gravitational readings are positive, but wont have much effect for the first part of Feb11th. ~~ 30 bars cycle @ 11am might do the trick.
However, the outcome should be positive for stocks later today and tomorrow FEb12th.
Expecting a high on either the 14 or 15th.
Monday is closed for Pres day, but Im not waiting for the 19th to get short, this time around.
Best Wishes
Saturday, February 09, 2008
One day rally
Feb 13 is an expected Bradley low,and after a one day strong rally Monday, they should slide into it.
Friday did well on the nasdaq, but not so well on the dow& spx- thus the confusion;
The bar count lows were each an hour early @ 9:45, then 1:30, and 3pm
The open, as I anticipated, was the actual low with a secondary low @ 1:30pm
Jaywiz index = .28, still somewhat bearish, but the ADv dcl/Vol index dropped from 2.90 to .67 thus indicating an oversold condition. one other index jumped from .44 to 266, also indicating oversold.
yes ;; they are reverse of each other.
Pressure readings will not be available till early Monday AM, to be effective.
Best Wishes
Jay
Friday did well on the nasdaq, but not so well on the dow& spx- thus the confusion;
The bar count lows were each an hour early @ 9:45, then 1:30, and 3pm
The open, as I anticipated, was the actual low with a secondary low @ 1:30pm
Jaywiz index = .28, still somewhat bearish, but the ADv dcl/Vol index dropped from 2.90 to .67 thus indicating an oversold condition. one other index jumped from .44 to 266, also indicating oversold.
yes ;; they are reverse of each other.
Pressure readings will not be available till early Monday AM, to be effective.
Best Wishes
Jay
Friday, February 08, 2008
Feb8
Most of the pressure readings indicate and UP day today
Polarity also jumped to the posotive early this AM;
Looks like a battle of bulls and bears much like yesterday, and it looks like the bulls are going to win again
Theres a 126 bar cycle @ 10am, and if the market makes its lows and holds, then they should move up, but the 2:30 time zone might be a retest.
Still expecting that huge rally Monday
Jay
Polarity also jumped to the posotive early this AM;
Looks like a battle of bulls and bears much like yesterday, and it looks like the bulls are going to win again
Theres a 126 bar cycle @ 10am, and if the market makes its lows and holds, then they should move up, but the 2:30 time zone might be a retest.
Still expecting that huge rally Monday
Jay
Thursday, February 07, 2008
Pressure readings
Pressure readings for today indicate a low and turn up- Its now 10:30am and thats exactly what we got so far today.
WCA chart for today indicates a high near end of day, but another dive tomorrow till about mid day.
180 bar cycle tomorrow @ 2:30pm might be the low of the day
Monday FEb11 is indicated to be a huge rally day, but little or no follow thru making the 13th the next sell off low, and it is a Bradley low date.
If they dont make new closing lows this week, then the next suspected time period is Feb 19 to 28.
Jay
WCA chart for today indicates a high near end of day, but another dive tomorrow till about mid day.
180 bar cycle tomorrow @ 2:30pm might be the low of the day
Monday FEb11 is indicated to be a huge rally day, but little or no follow thru making the 13th the next sell off low, and it is a Bradley low date.
If they dont make new closing lows this week, then the next suspected time period is Feb 19 to 28.
Jay
Wednesday, February 06, 2008
Closing LOWS ??
Its possible but not likely that today was the closing low of this week.
Theres still a good possible closing lower tomorrow and a intraday lower low on Friday mid day.
Today's 259 bars at 12;30 became the turn rather than the low of the day; this is a rare occurance, but I have mentioned it before.
The Eclipse effect is over tonight so we'll see if they open with a bang tomorrow, but Cisco earnings were not well received after announced.
Jaywiz index on Tuesday was a very strong SELL @ .09
Today's Jaywiz index = .47 and much more bullish.
However, the OEX pc ratio = .62 and was .68 yesterday. this indication is bearish
Friday is 180 bars @ 2;30pm which could turn in the low of the day.
Best for 2008
Jay
Theres still a good possible closing lower tomorrow and a intraday lower low on Friday mid day.
Today's 259 bars at 12;30 became the turn rather than the low of the day; this is a rare occurance, but I have mentioned it before.
The Eclipse effect is over tonight so we'll see if they open with a bang tomorrow, but Cisco earnings were not well received after announced.
Jaywiz index on Tuesday was a very strong SELL @ .09
Today's Jaywiz index = .47 and much more bullish.
However, the OEX pc ratio = .62 and was .68 yesterday. this indication is bearish
Friday is 180 bars @ 2;30pm which could turn in the low of the day.
Best for 2008
Jay
Tuesday, February 05, 2008
Feb6th low
Move that low up to FEb 6th Eclipse day, but thats not the reason why.
yesterdays bar cycles
90 @ 11am
126@ 2:30pm
A low should ocurr tomorrow Feb6th at the 259 bar cycle @ 12;30pm
From there they can rally to the 18th, but it wont be a straight line, of course
Any rebound off tomorrow noon hour low should hit an intial high on the 7th.
8th drops back during the day but should finish ok leaving an openning for a very powerful rally on the 11th.
Best for NOW
Jay
yesterdays bar cycles
90 @ 11am
126@ 2:30pm
A low should ocurr tomorrow Feb6th at the 259 bar cycle @ 12;30pm
From there they can rally to the 18th, but it wont be a straight line, of course
Any rebound off tomorrow noon hour low should hit an intial high on the 7th.
8th drops back during the day but should finish ok leaving an openning for a very powerful rally on the 11th.
Best for NOW
Jay
Monday, February 04, 2008
Feb 2nd bradley high
It does appear we got a Bradley high on Jan 31st and the math seems to agree
1576-1276= Spx lost 300 pts
300X 38.2% = 120
1276 + 120 + 1395 bingo
Whats next?
120 x 38.2% = 46
1395-46 = 1349
WHEN?
My bet is On for Feb 13th
however, tomorrow should represent a low and if YOU remember, i was talking about Feb6th open hr, which NOW looks like it should be a LOW from which the eclipse day can rebound, but dont get carried away.
Would love to see it tomorrow, but that would be asking too much.
Jay
1576-1276= Spx lost 300 pts
300X 38.2% = 120
1276 + 120 + 1395 bingo
Whats next?
120 x 38.2% = 46
1395-46 = 1349
WHEN?
My bet is On for Feb 13th
however, tomorrow should represent a low and if YOU remember, i was talking about Feb6th open hr, which NOW looks like it should be a LOW from which the eclipse day can rebound, but dont get carried away.
Would love to see it tomorrow, but that would be asking too much.
Jay
Monday Feb4th
In just 30 minutes , they wiped out almost all of Fridays hard fought gains.
By mentioning 126 bars as important today, that inferred a lower trading day today.
90 bars cycle @ 11:30am
126 bars @ 2:30 pm
Polarity turned negative after being positive from jan 12 to Jan 31, even tho the major low ocurred on jan 22/23. During the positive period, there was ONE dip in the middle of the duration right at Jan 23rd., then immediately bounced back to positive. - thus the end of month rally.
Ive found the Polarity Main power lines generally remain either pos or neg for about 13 to 15 days with interim bounces or dips which only last 1 to 3 days looking like a saw tooth.
Still expecting any low set today to be be offset by the first hour high of Feb6th. which in the main stream of events mean nothing other than a good short opp.
Jay
By mentioning 126 bars as important today, that inferred a lower trading day today.
90 bars cycle @ 11:30am
126 bars @ 2:30 pm
Polarity turned negative after being positive from jan 12 to Jan 31, even tho the major low ocurred on jan 22/23. During the positive period, there was ONE dip in the middle of the duration right at Jan 23rd., then immediately bounced back to positive. - thus the end of month rally.
Ive found the Polarity Main power lines generally remain either pos or neg for about 13 to 15 days with interim bounces or dips which only last 1 to 3 days looking like a saw tooth.
Still expecting any low set today to be be offset by the first hour high of Feb6th. which in the main stream of events mean nothing other than a good short opp.
Jay
Friday, February 01, 2008
What you cant see or feel
Just like gravity or electricity , there are other forces in nature which cant be seen or felt, but the reality of them is evident in stock market price action.
Today's high +100 hit at 10am where the Sun was parrallel Pluto which is similar to a conjunction.
259 bar cycle at 10:30, and the dow fell to a small minus 3.
What happens now?
So far the rally DEAD and there are 2 more bar counts today
30b @ 1pm
60b @ 3:30
And Monday, more imnportant
126 b @ 2:30pm
Still got first hour high on Feb 6th b4 heading substantially lower
Jay
Today's high +100 hit at 10am where the Sun was parrallel Pluto which is similar to a conjunction.
259 bar cycle at 10:30, and the dow fell to a small minus 3.
What happens now?
So far the rally DEAD and there are 2 more bar counts today
30b @ 1pm
60b @ 3:30
And Monday, more imnportant
126 b @ 2:30pm
Still got first hour high on Feb 6th b4 heading substantially lower
Jay
Thursday, January 31, 2008
Market targets
targets may have been reached today
259 bars sometimes indicates a TURN DOWN and we might just get that tomorrow
Bradley date of Feb 3rd, may have occurred today, thus giving those of you who mentioned a down feb 4th will have been right; congrats.
Monday is 126 bars at 2pm,
Jay
259 bars sometimes indicates a TURN DOWN and we might just get that tomorrow
Bradley date of Feb 3rd, may have occurred today, thus giving those of you who mentioned a down feb 4th will have been right; congrats.
Monday is 126 bars at 2pm,
Jay
Wednesday, January 30, 2008
Rate cut effect
the rate cut of jan 23rd occurred as the markets were making inmportant cycle lows, and thus the rate SEEMED to have an effect on the market. Actually the market had an effect on the fed inducing them to cut rates.
Now On Jan 30, we hae a double rate cut and the market at first said hooray, but the volume to sustain a rally was lacking and some bullshit story about downgrading some obscure financial institution made the headlines. Man what crap. Volume was the key today.
The market was due to rally and fall with or with out all the rhetoric.
Tomorrow is scheduled to take a further hit and the 259 bar cycles @ 10;30am on Friday.
That should represent a buying opp to get the spx to close at 1380 on or b4 Feb 6th.& Still got
Feb 6th first hr as an important TURN leading to a devastating followthru to retest and or break to new lows on Feb13th.
Best in 2008
Jay
Now On Jan 30, we hae a double rate cut and the market at first said hooray, but the volume to sustain a rally was lacking and some bullshit story about downgrading some obscure financial institution made the headlines. Man what crap. Volume was the key today.
The market was due to rally and fall with or with out all the rhetoric.
Tomorrow is scheduled to take a further hit and the 259 bar cycles @ 10;30am on Friday.
That should represent a buying opp to get the spx to close at 1380 on or b4 Feb 6th.& Still got
Feb 6th first hr as an important TURN leading to a devastating followthru to retest and or break to new lows on Feb13th.
Best in 2008
Jay
Tuesday, January 29, 2008
First Qtr 2008
January has given the market its wrost start in 100 years;
What does that mean for the 1st qtr? lets explore
Jan 23rd had a large grouping of short term cycles converging and thus the inital short term low which set lower lows than 2007, and challenged 2006 numbers.
The NEXT most critical time period in the 1st qtr seems to be between March 1st and Arpil11th, but even more specifically March 22nd April11.
A large numbers of LONG TERM CYCLES converge in the time frame, and should setup a serious trading low.
This is not to say that FEb will offer lower numbers, it probably will between FEb6th and 13/15th.
What about the fed rate cuts? you ask . wont that have a positive effect on stocks? YES, but not immediate. It takes time for those cuts to trickle into the actual ecenomy.
Best to all
Jay
What does that mean for the 1st qtr? lets explore
Jan 23rd had a large grouping of short term cycles converging and thus the inital short term low which set lower lows than 2007, and challenged 2006 numbers.
The NEXT most critical time period in the 1st qtr seems to be between March 1st and Arpil11th, but even more specifically March 22nd April11.
A large numbers of LONG TERM CYCLES converge in the time frame, and should setup a serious trading low.
This is not to say that FEb will offer lower numbers, it probably will between FEb6th and 13/15th.
What about the fed rate cuts? you ask . wont that have a positive effect on stocks? YES, but not immediate. It takes time for those cuts to trickle into the actual ecenomy.
Best to all
Jay
Friday, January 25, 2008
Eight day high
So there it is, the Jan 25th, A 52 hr high in the first hour.
I've mentioned Jan 28th and 29th b4, and they are headed for a low. Question at this point is how low?
If only a fibo retrace, then 12,000 would seem right, but if it really turns into a black Monday, then it could take out 12k, and head for 11,750
I have doubts about that, but it is possible.
If the wave structure completes 5 waves down On Monday and Tuesday, then the real 4th wave should have its day thru the open hour of Feb 6th.
From there, they could then proceed to head lower in the 5th of 5th, which astrotrader has projected can occur on Feb20th, the second eclipse
The 8 day cycle started at
jan 2nd first hr high
Jan 11th closing low
jan 25th first hr high
Feb 6th expected first hr high
Feb 18th expected first hr
best in 2008
Jay
I've mentioned Jan 28th and 29th b4, and they are headed for a low. Question at this point is how low?
If only a fibo retrace, then 12,000 would seem right, but if it really turns into a black Monday, then it could take out 12k, and head for 11,750
I have doubts about that, but it is possible.
If the wave structure completes 5 waves down On Monday and Tuesday, then the real 4th wave should have its day thru the open hour of Feb 6th.
From there, they could then proceed to head lower in the 5th of 5th, which astrotrader has projected can occur on Feb20th, the second eclipse
The 8 day cycle started at
jan 2nd first hr high
Jan 11th closing low
jan 25th first hr high
Feb 6th expected first hr high
Feb 18th expected first hr
best in 2008
Jay
4th wave rebound
How high can a 4th wave rebound go.
Is this a 4th wv rebound?
Some are projecting 12,450 to 12,500, and It looks like we might have that in during the 1st hour today. There is an 8 days cycle which does peak in the first hour today.
a 4th wave rebound is very likely.
The poor start that Jan had does not recover in a week, or month, and may even take all year.
A 4th wave would usually occur in 3 waves. If we've got the "a" wave completeing, then" b" should be next. That wave has its rules and can even drop below the 3rd wave low, but not usually. typically it would be at least 50% of the rebound = about 350 dow pts to 12,000 level.
If thats the case, then Tuesday am has the best timing for such.
Still expecting Feb6th eclipse to provide a High.
Jay
Is this a 4th wv rebound?
Some are projecting 12,450 to 12,500, and It looks like we might have that in during the 1st hour today. There is an 8 days cycle which does peak in the first hour today.
a 4th wave rebound is very likely.
The poor start that Jan had does not recover in a week, or month, and may even take all year.
A 4th wave would usually occur in 3 waves. If we've got the "a" wave completeing, then" b" should be next. That wave has its rules and can even drop below the 3rd wave low, but not usually. typically it would be at least 50% of the rebound = about 350 dow pts to 12,000 level.
If thats the case, then Tuesday am has the best timing for such.
Still expecting Feb6th eclipse to provide a High.
Jay
Wednesday, January 23, 2008
Got the rally
259 bars cycled at 1pm today and thus the rebound
Also had positive influences with venus 0 pluto
Some other analysts and myself now consider the rally finished, call it wave 4, now looking for wave 5 obviously
Solar energy is lower for next 2 days and closes friday at its lows.
the next 259 bar cycle hits on Monday @ 2pm.
23rd was called by some for an important low and it certainly was, but unlike August, we are still looking for the 5th wave leg to close at spx 1250 area in the next 3 days.
That would setup the 30th, rate cut day for a huge rally into The FEb 6th Eclipse, and continue to hold and run higher to the lunar eclipse on the 22nd.
Jay
Also had positive influences with venus 0 pluto
Some other analysts and myself now consider the rally finished, call it wave 4, now looking for wave 5 obviously
Solar energy is lower for next 2 days and closes friday at its lows.
the next 259 bar cycle hits on Monday @ 2pm.
23rd was called by some for an important low and it certainly was, but unlike August, we are still looking for the 5th wave leg to close at spx 1250 area in the next 3 days.
That would setup the 30th, rate cut day for a huge rally into The FEb 6th Eclipse, and continue to hold and run higher to the lunar eclipse on the 22nd.
Jay
Jan 23rd @ 2:30
the dow but not the nasdaq has re-gained its 325 pt loss
IMO, If the dow doesnt drop to a new closing low today, then Its possible this rebound
<>till the close>, which i doubt. There is a 90 bar cycle at 3;30.
BUT if it does, then I might want to consider this the rally i expected for the open tomorrw.
Jay
IMO, If the dow doesnt drop to a new closing low today, then Its possible this rebound
<>till the close>, which i doubt. There is a 90 bar cycle at 3;30.
BUT if it does, then I might want to consider this the rally i expected for the open tomorrw.
Jay
Possible low
Jan 23rd is showing a possible low, BUT not THE LOW.
Jan 23rd should close on its lows, or @3;30 where the 90 bar cycle appears to be set.
Jan 24th should open up HUGE, BUT according to the projected solar energy patterns,
IT WONT LAST
Still got a probable low at 11am on the 25th.
And more selling is possible on the 28/29th.
Fed meeting on29/30
Jay
Jan 23rd should close on its lows, or @3;30 where the 90 bar cycle appears to be set.
Jan 24th should open up HUGE, BUT according to the projected solar energy patterns,
IT WONT LAST
Still got a probable low at 11am on the 25th.
And more selling is possible on the 28/29th.
Fed meeting on29/30
Jay
Tuesday, January 22, 2008
.50 rate cut??
rumors have it for a fed discount rate cut tomorrow- we'llsee, but that does fit the energy pattern that shows a rally at the open.
Make it so, said the captain. That way I can get the best option prices on my puts.
Jaywiz INDEX = .21= MORE SELLING coming
adv decl index at 217 and vol index at 259, both well under 400, Thus a rally should occur, but its only a setup for further declines
Merc retro on 28th
mars direct on 30= take the brakes off and start spending.
Today's armsd index = .92, and in no way can that be considered a buy signal
the Augsut 15th or 16th was a 10.00- now thats a buy signal
I'll let you know when we get something like that.
Jay
Make it so, said the captain. That way I can get the best option prices on my puts.
Jaywiz INDEX = .21= MORE SELLING coming
adv decl index at 217 and vol index at 259, both well under 400, Thus a rally should occur, but its only a setup for further declines
Merc retro on 28th
mars direct on 30= take the brakes off and start spending.
Today's armsd index = .92, and in no way can that be considered a buy signal
the Augsut 15th or 16th was a 10.00- now thats a buy signal
I'll let you know when we get something like that.
Jay
As Expected
900 points in one day.
Hope you got to trade it both ways
Should still open higher tomorrow, then slide the rest of the day and week.
The graph above is the MCOS and its in a pennant formation showing a clear break DOWN on Jan 18th.
Add that to the H&S dow formation and we have a market with a big problem.
I was reminded about the 8 days after the Jupiter 120 Saturn- energy from a waning Saturn with the lack of strength from Jupiter.
Jay
Monday, January 21, 2008
Is the Bull dead?
Ive been reminded to look at he 1998 market in comparison to timing this one.
unlke the 2000/2001 market which took 15months, the 1998 deal fell in a few months as this market appears destined to do.
Tuesday's and Wed readings are difficult at best to define.
However, It does look like they are destined to open MUCH lower and continue lower all day till the 329 bar count at 2:30pm.
From there, it is possible, to rebound into the first hour of the 23rd. After which the real panic should start.
Still got he 40-45 day cycle in effect which runs from the 24th to the 29th
Stan Harley has mentioned the 24th quite often as an almost absolute date fro the 40/42 trade day low off Nov 26th and the previous lows in his sequence.
However, that break of the MCOS pennant, plus the waning effect after the Jupiter 120 Saturn seems to make the timing stretch out to the max which is the open on Tuesday Jan 29th till about 10am
We havent seen a market like this since 1998, and thus we are struck because we still expect those incredible rebounds at every dip. This time it will wait till its really over. thats what a head & shoulders pattern does- reverts back to the start, and some have posted charts showing spx values in the 1100 area.
Best Wishes
Jay
unlke the 2000/2001 market which took 15months, the 1998 deal fell in a few months as this market appears destined to do.
Tuesday's and Wed readings are difficult at best to define.
However, It does look like they are destined to open MUCH lower and continue lower all day till the 329 bar count at 2:30pm.
From there, it is possible,
Still got he 40-45 day cycle in effect which runs from the 24th to the 29th
Stan Harley has mentioned the 24th quite often as an almost absolute date fro the 40/42 trade day low off Nov 26th and the previous lows in his sequence.
However, that break of the MCOS pennant, plus the waning effect after the Jupiter 120 Saturn seems to make the timing stretch out to the max which is the open on Tuesday Jan 29th till about 10am
We havent seen a market like this since 1998, and thus we are struck because we still expect those incredible rebounds at every dip. This time it will wait till its really over. thats what a head & shoulders pattern does- reverts back to the start, and some have posted charts showing spx values in the 1100 area.
Best Wishes
Jay
DANGEROUS times
Stocks are at the edge of the cliff, and ready to tumble over the edge
It may happen on Tuesday or it could hold off till WEdnesday, but the charts I look at indicate this market is heading lower until at least the 29th as mentioned b4.
Tuesday USA would depend on How Europe behaves at its open, but it matters not as this week appears destined to plunge even further than most woud suspect, leaving the door open to the first January crash in history.
Best Wishes
Jay
It may happen on Tuesday or it could hold off till WEdnesday, but the charts I look at indicate this market is heading lower until at least the 29th as mentioned b4.
Tuesday USA would depend on How Europe behaves at its open, but it matters not as this week appears destined to plunge even further than most woud suspect, leaving the door open to the first January crash in history.
Best Wishes
Jay
Sunday, January 20, 2008
Head & Shoulders
The right shoulder topped onDec 10th and has plunged 2000 points from the oct11th top
Oct 10 to Nov 26 = 1350 pts ---Wv1
Dec 10 to JAn 25-28th = How many points- heres some simple Fibo math
1350 X 1.618 = 2200--- Wv3
Dec 10 13,700 - 2200 = 11,500
Thats Puts TIME and price on Jan 25th to 28th @ Dow 11,500
Another analyst on the T&C site provided a different analysis, but came out with the same dates
1728 trading week from 12/1974 = week of Jan 25th
288 weeks from Oct ,2002 = week of Feb 1st
Best Wishes
Jay
Oct 10 to Nov 26 = 1350 pts ---Wv1
Dec 10 to JAn 25-28th = How many points- heres some simple Fibo math
1350 X 1.618 = 2200--- Wv3
Dec 10 13,700 - 2200 = 11,500
Thats Puts TIME and price on Jan 25th to 28th @ Dow 11,500
Another analyst on the T&C site provided a different analysis, but came out with the same dates
1728 trading week from 12/1974 = week of Jan 25th
288 weeks from Oct ,2002 = week of Feb 1st
Best Wishes
Jay
HEY HEY, the bull is dead
the 5 year bull appears to have taken on a 25yr correction.
the H&S chart i posted has come to life and is now in full retreat down to the next channel line on the dow as well as the spx.
Are they entitled to a bounce? Quick anwser is Yes, BUT
Sure the numbers are showing GREATLY oversold data, but it doesnt mean an instant rebound.
Especially in a 3rd wave DOWN Leg. WHEN will we get the rally you ask? OK<>
As mentioned b4, there is a 40/45 trade day low approaching next week, and in this environment, that should prove most important. Between the 24th and 29th.
ON an astro level , keeping it simple, and I say that becuse ive seen some people get really elaborate.
Full moon early Tuesday = keep secrets
Venus 0 Pluto early WEd = money regeneration
Merc retro on 28th = coincidental often with turns
mars direct on 30th = Take the brakes off spending
Expectations
Jan 22 = down
Jan 23rd = rebound, but may not make it to the close
Jan 24/25= DOWN
29th might just become the TURN around Tuesday we have come to know and love.
Feb6th ECLIPSE high
the MCOS penant has been broken on the downside, and bodes very badly for stocks in 1st qtr of 2008, even if we do get a short term powerhouse rally.
Some have offered targets down to SPX 1255 area.
Best to all in 2008
Jay
the H&S chart i posted has come to life and is now in full retreat down to the next channel line on the dow as well as the spx.
Are they entitled to a bounce? Quick anwser is Yes, BUT
Sure the numbers are showing GREATLY oversold data, but it doesnt mean an instant rebound.
Especially in a 3rd wave DOWN Leg. WHEN will we get the rally you ask? OK<>
As mentioned b4, there is a 40/45 trade day low approaching next week, and in this environment, that should prove most important. Between the 24th and 29th.
ON an astro level , keeping it simple, and I say that becuse ive seen some people get really elaborate.
Full moon early Tuesday = keep secrets
Venus 0 Pluto early WEd = money regeneration
Merc retro on 28th = coincidental often with turns
mars direct on 30th = Take the brakes off spending
Expectations
Jan 22 = down
Jan 23rd = rebound, but may not make it to the close
Jan 24/25= DOWN
29th might just become the TURN around Tuesday we have come to know and love.
Feb6th ECLIPSE high
the MCOS penant has been broken on the downside, and bodes very badly for stocks in 1st qtr of 2008, even if we do get a short term powerhouse rally.
Some have offered targets down to SPX 1255 area.
Best to all in 2008
Jay
Thursday, January 17, 2008
RALLY
All the evidence points to a very strong rebound tomorrow on Friday, jan 18th
heres the stats
Cboe PC ratio = a whopping 1.53
OEX pc ratio = 1.44 *** Bullish
spx 500 pc ratio = 2.37 *** bullish
VIX = 28.46 UP 4.08 today ** Bullish
LOW hit at 3;45 RIGHT on the 259 bar cycle dow low 12,125 -- closed higher @ 12159
Arms index 2.29 bullish
SPX fell 80 points from the high on Monday ** thats usually a maximum or 2 X 40pts
Dow Volume shrank from Thursday
Jaywiz index which gave a .11 reading on WEd was very bearish, but today's = .41* Bullish
Even tho the evidence will give us a rally tomorrow, it appears it will be a one day wonder;
Some evidence is already appearing to show me we will see a lower market next week, starting right from Tuesday, but more on that later. Dont get over excited about tomorrows numbers.
best to all in 2008
its going to get really rough thru the whole first qtr.
heres the stats
Cboe PC ratio = a whopping 1.53
OEX pc ratio = 1.44 *** Bullish
spx 500 pc ratio = 2.37 *** bullish
VIX = 28.46 UP 4.08 today ** Bullish
LOW hit at 3;45 RIGHT on the 259 bar cycle dow low 12,125 -- closed higher @ 12159
Arms index 2.29 bullish
SPX fell 80 points from the high on Monday ** thats usually a maximum or 2 X 40pts
Dow Volume shrank from Thursday
Jaywiz index which gave a .11 reading on WEd was very bearish, but today's = .41* Bullish
Even tho the evidence will give us a rally tomorrow, it appears it will be a one day wonder;
Some evidence is already appearing to show me we will see a lower market next week, starting right from Tuesday, but more on that later. Dont get over excited about tomorrows numbers.
best to all in 2008
its going to get really rough thru the whole first qtr.
Wednesday, January 16, 2008
beige book
2pm was 180 bars today and the beige book report- from 2pm the dow jumped UP 100 pts
4pm is 204 bars and predicts the dow off the intraday high.
From there, Tomorrow should rocket up to the 18th option day.
Jay
4pm is 204 bars and predicts the dow off the intraday high.
From there, Tomorrow should rocket up to the 18th option day.
Jay
Tuesday, January 15, 2008
weekly cycle low
Today has the earmark of a 22/44wk cycle low as mentioned b4 and brot to my attention on another site by Jerry Rubenstein.
The solar energy levels indicates possible selling today and also tomorrow.
There are bar count lows due at
60 bars @11am
90 bars @1:30pm
astro hit @ 2:46pm
Market should recover some from there.
Solar energy levels indicate a rally on 17th and 18th.
18th is option expiration and could be quite a positive show of short covering.
22nd appears to be a short term CIT, and might offer a high from which the 40/42 trade day cycle takes over and heads lower into the 24th & 25th.
the JAYWIZ index did score a 19on the 11th and 24 yesterday to indicate more selling as we see today. Its now 11;15 and the dow is off its lows as predicted by the 60 bar count @ 11am;
The 126 bar count hits at 10 am tomorrow after the 8:15 CPI report, so it might concur with a secondary low at that point.
A recovery after that should lead to the rebound on Jan 17 & 18.
best to all in 2008
Jay
The solar energy levels indicates possible selling today and also tomorrow.
There are bar count lows due at
60 bars @11am
90 bars @1:30pm
astro hit @ 2:46pm
Market should recover some from there.
Solar energy levels indicate a rally on 17th and 18th.
18th is option expiration and could be quite a positive show of short covering.
22nd appears to be a short term CIT, and might offer a high from which the 40/42 trade day cycle takes over and heads lower into the 24th & 25th.
the JAYWIZ index did score a 19on the 11th and 24 yesterday to indicate more selling as we see today. Its now 11;15 and the dow is off its lows as predicted by the 60 bar count @ 11am;
The 126 bar count hits at 10 am tomorrow after the 8:15 CPI report, so it might concur with a secondary low at that point.
A recovery after that should lead to the rebound on Jan 17 & 18.
best to all in 2008
Jay
Monday, January 14, 2008
Power the dow Up
Now that the SPX settled at a level that showed more power than the dow on Friday, the proof of the Jan 11th low is now evident at the dow is now UP 120 pts at this writing @ 10:30am.
One other indicator that I developped from my data collection show a rise from
Dec 4th @ .40
Dec 26 @ 1.20
Jan 11 @ .66
thus confirming the current move Up after Friday Jan 11th
Jan 11th was also 52 hours, - 8 trade days from the OPEN of Jan 2nd .
the next 8 trade day point is Jan 24- keep inmnd that the 21st is a trading holiday.
As for this week, the POLARITY index jumed to Positive on the 13th after being in the Negative for the previous 8 days.
Looing for a trading high this week onWed, and again on Friday morning.
Friday could begin the selloff into the 24th/25th where there is a 40/42 trade day low due off the previous low of Nov 26th.
Best to all for 2008
Jay
One other indicator that I developped from my data collection show a rise from
Dec 4th @ .40
Dec 26 @ 1.20
Jan 11 @ .66
thus confirming the current move Up after Friday Jan 11th
Jan 11th was also 52 hours, - 8 trade days from the OPEN of Jan 2nd .
the next 8 trade day point is Jan 24- keep inmnd that the 21st is a trading holiday.
As for this week, the POLARITY index jumed to Positive on the 13th after being in the Negative for the previous 8 days.
Looing for a trading high this week onWed, and again on Friday morning.
Friday could begin the selloff into the 24th/25th where there is a 40/42 trade day low due off the previous low of Nov 26th.
Best to all for 2008
Jay
Friday, January 11, 2008
Jan11th still a low
Ive still got Jan 11th as a spring board closing low to a short term high on Feb6th.
3 day rally next week into the 16th/17th with a drop off on the 18th but nothing very severe.
2 days of rally attempts this week were only rebounds within a decline phase of possible wave 1 or an A wave.
Jay
3 day rally next week into the 16th/17th with a drop off on the 18th but nothing very severe.
2 days of rally attempts this week were only rebounds within a decline phase of possible wave 1 or an A wave.
Jay
Wednesday, January 09, 2008
Jan 11th
From a low on Jan 11th, the market should rebound into Feb 6th.
And it should be one heck of a rebound
However, some technicians have been posting spx getting to 1255/1275 on the 11th
This target has already begun even tho most of my techindicators are oversold right NOW, they will get more so by Friday.
I was thinking Monday Jan 14th, but the EVIDENCE is mounting toward a Jan 11th LOW
It should be the first stopping point off a WEAK right shoulder as pointed out in the previous post.
If the spx gets to 1275, the dow equal is about 11,750, which is the yr 2000 all time high.
Such a test does portend much lower levels later in the year. Maybe march 24th?
But for NOW, get ready to BUY the low this Friday
For what it worth, CNBC is beating up CFC- Countrywide financial which has fallen from $25 to 2.50 -- YOU be the judge, is it time to buy it??
Best to all for 2008
Comments welcome
let me know if Im doing better, and if YOUR doing better .
Jay
And it should be one heck of a rebound
However, some technicians have been posting spx getting to 1255/1275 on the 11th
This target has already begun even tho most of my techindicators are oversold right NOW, they will get more so by Friday.
I was thinking Monday Jan 14th, but the EVIDENCE is mounting toward a Jan 11th LOW
It should be the first stopping point off a WEAK right shoulder as pointed out in the previous post.
If the spx gets to 1275, the dow equal is about 11,750, which is the yr 2000 all time high.
Such a test does portend much lower levels later in the year. Maybe march 24th?
But for NOW, get ready to BUY the low this Friday
For what it worth, CNBC is beating up CFC- Countrywide financial which has fallen from $25 to 2.50 -- YOU be the judge, is it time to buy it??
Best to all for 2008
Comments welcome
let me know if Im doing better, and if YOUR doing better .
Jay
Tuesday, January 08, 2008
Dow high on Feb 1st is BUSTED
Heres a chart that will blow you away
In case you didn't notice-
The premise for dow 14,300 on FEB 1st is BUSTED
Some one hasnt been paying attention
It now looks like we will get to 12,000 by Friday
First week in Jan down 565 pts - first time in 100 years- WOWA closing low on the 14th and intraday low on the 15th should set the stage for A HUGE REBOUND, but I doubt sincerely they will get all the way back to 14K within 3 weeks.
However, one thing I wish to point out
Take a look at Jan/Feb 2000, and I did mention this b4.
IN YEAR 2000
Jan 14th was the all time high
Feb 5th was a dive low
then by march 24th, they made another new high, in the spx at least, not the dow.
WE are therefore expecting JUST the REVERSE for 2008.
Best Wishes
Jay
Head & Shoulders
This chart was posted on another site, but since its just a pic of the dow, Im sure the presenter wont mind if I use it to show point
This Head & Shoulders formation DOESNT occur very often and since its so rare, I wanted to show it so YOU can take advantage of it also.
The lower channel line the dow is sitting at is 12,800 which was Jan 4th close
The next level in such a formation would be the next level lower at dow 12,000
Is such cases, these events occur very quickly, and since the first week of Jan was off 565dow pts, it represnets the worst openning week in 100 yrs. Whats that mean ? You ask.= TROUBLE
Ive mentioned the 9 month and 22/44wk cycle OFF last March 14, previously, and it strikes on Jan 14th. There is also a hard aspect astro cluster this weekend.
Everything POINTS to a severe SELL off this week probably starting on the 10th.
Gravitational levels are at 500 today, and same for tomorrow, then drops to 400 thru Friday.
The Arms index of 4.09 on last Friday might usually be viewed as an exhaustion LOW, but since it ocurred when it did, and taking all the other factors into account, then it actually portends severe danger just ahead.
Interesting dates of the H&S
July 16 High-------Oct 10 high ------- Dec 10th high
Aug 16 low -------Nov 12 low ------- Dec 17 low ----- Now expecting Jan 14/15 lows
Best to All, & comments welcome
Jay
Monday, January 07, 2008
Recession
Now that SOMEONE recognizes were in a recession, OIL prices tumble
If thats what it takes to get lower gas prices, we will take recession over ??
What the heck have we on the street been experiencing for 3 years - Its called Recsssion.
BUT NOW its recognized- do you get my satire ??
Friday's low at 4pm was 180 bar cycle, not 3pm
Thus we advanced Monday's times up accordingly
204 bars cycled at 10:40am
60 bars cycled @ 3:40pm, thus the closing rally
Whats that mean for tomorrow's hot spots?
90 bars @ 11:15
126 bars @ 2:15
Gravitational forces looks like a continuation of the trend all week
Tomorrow COULD start out on the UPSIDE, but it will probably be less short lived than today's open and NO recovery until at least 2:15, if any then either.
Jaywiz Index = .35, Not very bearish, but certainly NOT bullish.
It would appear that any rallies intraday this week are fated to fail as the bigger cycle may be due on Jan 15th. Now that the Dec 17th LOW of spx1445 has been broken, a lower low is next and that means the next 9 month cycle low should be even lower.
Next break is under the Nov 26th low of spx 1407
March 22nd has been pointed out as the Armstrong cycle LOW of the 1st qtr of 2008.
Add 9 months = Dec 2008, or possibly November if we cut off one month for the one that was added to Dec to get to Jan.
Best to all
Jay
If thats what it takes to get lower gas prices, we will take recession over ??
What the heck have we on the street been experiencing for 3 years - Its called Recsssion.
BUT NOW its recognized- do you get my satire ??
Friday's low at 4pm was 180 bar cycle, not 3pm
Thus we advanced Monday's times up accordingly
204 bars cycled at 10:40am
60 bars cycled @ 3:40pm, thus the closing rally
Whats that mean for tomorrow's hot spots?
90 bars @ 11:15
126 bars @ 2:15
Gravitational forces looks like a continuation of the trend all week
Tomorrow COULD start out on the UPSIDE, but it will probably be less short lived than today's open and NO recovery until at least 2:15, if any then either.
Jaywiz Index = .35, Not very bearish, but certainly NOT bullish.
It would appear that any rallies intraday this week are fated to fail as the bigger cycle may be due on Jan 15th. Now that the Dec 17th LOW of spx1445 has been broken, a lower low is next and that means the next 9 month cycle low should be even lower.
Next break is under the Nov 26th low of spx 1407
March 22nd has been pointed out as the Armstrong cycle LOW of the 1st qtr of 2008.
Add 9 months = Dec 2008, or possibly November if we cut off one month for the one that was added to Dec to get to Jan.
Best to all
Jay
Saturday, January 05, 2008
93% DOWN Volume
180 bars cycle @3pm was near the low of the day.
Midnite Low tide is the 6th
Lunar cycle shows a BIG rise due NOW
gravitational levels for Friday ended up at a LOW under 300, but was identified as 500 in error
Grav effects made a VERY DRAMATIC change TODAY
5th jumps up to 600
6th up to 650
7th still higher yet to 700, BUT for ONLY PART of the day
8th drops back down to 400
9th = 400
10th even lower to 350
evidently a huge solar flare has transmitted energy to us on earth?
BUT its not a lasting event??
Heres some other data to indicate a potential HUGE rally part of Monday
Friday
93% DOWN VOLUME
Arms ONE day index = 4.09
this also raises the levels of some of the technical indexes to rather high levels, BUT the grav info above negates a solid BUY for now.
New moon early Tuesday AM
JAYWIZ INDEX = .12 on top of the .25 from Thursday- BOTh indicating further selling, and the 10 day ave dropped to 34.1
Best Wishes
Jay
Midnite Low tide is the 6th
Lunar cycle shows a BIG rise due NOW
gravitational levels for Friday ended up at a LOW under 300, but was identified as 500 in error
Grav effects made a VERY DRAMATIC change TODAY
5th jumps up to 600
6th up to 650
7th still higher yet to 700, BUT for ONLY PART of the day
8th drops back down to 400
9th = 400
10th even lower to 350
evidently a huge solar flare has transmitted energy to us on earth?
BUT its not a lasting event??
Heres some other data to indicate a potential HUGE rally part of Monday
Friday
93% DOWN VOLUME
Arms ONE day index = 4.09
this also raises the levels of some of the technical indexes to rather high levels, BUT the grav info above negates a solid BUY for now.
New moon early Tuesday AM
JAYWIZ INDEX = .12 on top of the .25 from Thursday- BOTh indicating further selling, and the 10 day ave dropped to 34.1
Best Wishes
Jay
Thursday, January 03, 2008
Jan 4th
today's action sets up a short term rebound for the next 2 days
gravitational levels for tomorrow are higher @500
Monday moves even higher to 700
Tuesday and Wed both drop to 425
There is the matter of getting by the 22/44wk cycles low as mentioned b4 and pointed out by another analyst
which occurs the week of Jan 14th to 18th
Feb 6 is still looking strong for a possible new high
Best Wishes
Jay
gravitational levels for tomorrow are higher @500
Monday moves even higher to 700
Tuesday and Wed both drop to 425
There is the matter of getting by the 22/44wk cycles low as mentioned b4 and pointed out by another analyst
which occurs the week of Jan 14th to 18th
Feb 6 is still looking strong for a possible new high
Best Wishes
Jay
Wednesday, January 02, 2008
IT's 2008
Dec 27th went as expected
Dec 31st went as expected
Jan 2nd went as expected
Whats expected for Jan3rd?
As previously written - it should also be a down day
However, we are getting very close to a BUY which should arrive on tomorrow's close
Heres some stats
Jaywiz Adv/Decl index = 396 & just under the 400 threshold
Jaywiz Volume Index = 307 & well under the 400 level
both of theses are ALERTS to a change in trend within a day or 2.
Jaywiz NEW Index = 48 & close to a buy, should be over 50 for a real buy - cant wait to see what tomorrows index is. should register a solid buy.
The 10 day average is now at 42.6, and on DEc 18th low it was 37
its range has been from 31 to 68. so 50 is mid range.
5 day ARMS index = 160.6 & is a very strong buy
5 day trin = 803 and is also registering a buy
10 trin = 126.5 ------- Ditto
Gravitational level today was a low 300
Jan 3 = same
Jan 4th starts to rise and over the wkend runs up to 600
Monday, Jan 7= 500
Tuesday, Jan 8 = 400
It seems to indicate some possible backing off, but not too serious. The reading is 7 days out and not as reliable as the 4 or 5 day, so updates will be noted.
OEX pc ratio = .90 more on the sell side under 1.00
CBOE pc rati0 = 1.15 & neutral but leaning toward a buy
SPX 500 pc ratio = 2.03 leaning toward a buy
Gold has been running UP every down day on the dow, maybe made a short term high?
180 bars cycle @ 10.30 hit at 10:20
204 bar cycle @ 12:30 was exact
30 bars later = 3pm, a minor dip.
SPX might seek the 2006 HIGH of 1431.82
Market fell AFTER the 2pm FED minutes
90 bars should cycle @ 1:30pm tomorrow &
126 bar cycle @4pm, which is actually 120 bars, buts that allowed.
Expect the market to rally FRIDAY from the open as the jobs report is at 8:30am
Comments welcome
Jay
Dec 31st went as expected
Jan 2nd went as expected
Whats expected for Jan3rd?
As previously written - it should also be a down day
However, we are getting very close to a BUY which should arrive on tomorrow's close
Heres some stats
Jaywiz Adv/Decl index = 396 & just under the 400 threshold
Jaywiz Volume Index = 307 & well under the 400 level
both of theses are ALERTS to a change in trend within a day or 2.
Jaywiz NEW Index = 48 & close to a buy, should be over 50 for a real buy - cant wait to see what tomorrows index is. should register a solid buy.
The 10 day average is now at 42.6, and on DEc 18th low it was 37
its range has been from 31 to 68. so 50 is mid range.
5 day ARMS index = 160.6 & is a very strong buy
5 day trin = 803 and is also registering a buy
10 trin = 126.5 ------- Ditto
Gravitational level today was a low 300
Jan 3 = same
Jan 4th starts to rise and over the wkend runs up to 600
Monday, Jan 7= 500
Tuesday, Jan 8 = 400
It seems to indicate some possible backing off, but not too serious. The reading is 7 days out and not as reliable as the 4 or 5 day, so updates will be noted.
OEX pc ratio = .90 more on the sell side under 1.00
CBOE pc rati0 = 1.15 & neutral but leaning toward a buy
SPX 500 pc ratio = 2.03 leaning toward a buy
Gold has been running UP every down day on the dow, maybe made a short term high?
180 bars cycle @ 10.30 hit at 10:20
204 bar cycle @ 12:30 was exact
30 bars later = 3pm, a minor dip.
SPX might seek the 2006 HIGH of 1431.82
Market fell AFTER the 2pm FED minutes
90 bars should cycle @ 1:30pm tomorrow &
126 bar cycle @4pm, which is actually 120 bars, buts that allowed.
Expect the market to rally FRIDAY from the open as the jobs report is at 8:30am
Comments welcome
Jay
Tuesday, January 01, 2008
Jan 2000 verses 2008
Its possible they might follow an exact opposite course to Jan 2000
Jan 2000 had a high on the 14th, and we are looking for a low.
Feb 2000, had an extreme low on the Feb5th Eclipse and we are looking for a High on the Feb6th Eclipse this year 2008.
There are some analysts on other sites who are predicting Gann squares of 9, and are expecting a high on FEb 1st of dow 14,300, as is Charles Nenner from what i've been reading today.
This extra info fits well with what IVE BEEN TELLING YOU the past few postings. This is also to let you know that I DO MY OWN work, and here is info from other sources confirming my work.
Best Wishes
Happy new year 2008
Jay
Jan 2000 had a high on the 14th, and we are looking for a low.
Feb 2000, had an extreme low on the Feb5th Eclipse and we are looking for a High on the Feb6th Eclipse this year 2008.
There are some analysts on other sites who are predicting Gann squares of 9, and are expecting a high on FEb 1st of dow 14,300, as is Charles Nenner from what i've been reading today.
This extra info fits well with what IVE BEEN TELLING YOU the past few postings. This is also to let you know that I DO MY OWN work, and here is info from other sources confirming my work.
Best Wishes
Happy new year 2008
Jay
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