Sunday Thoughts

An ending DIAGONAL triangle may have formed from the Low of March 31st to April18th

And Monday might slide for the entire day, but not sure about Tuesday yet;
However
here's the bar cycle
Monday has
180 bars at 11am
204b @ 1pm
and 228b@ 3pm
all of those MATCH the hourly cycle which NORMALLY has a tendency to make intraday highs
Except you will note the FRIDAY 3pm LOW, then the 3;45 TOP, and last 15 minute drop

THEN On Tuesday, we have a MORE significant 258bar cycle ALSO at 11AM

The Next question becomes when to close out our put positions?

It would seem prudent to close them out on Monday possibly at 11am and or 3pm
expecting a minor rebound off the 3pm low going into the close if thea bove works out

Should we buy calls on Tuesday at 11am low?
It would seem correct as the end of day should rally considerably given the juice derived from
a VENUS 0 Mars at 6pm

And those calls should possibly be closed out on the 22nd at about 2pm ,
unless your willing to hold them thru Friday's new moon high

Interesting note that the Martin Armstrong turn date is April20th, but thats a BIZ cycle turn
as was Feb 20th, 2007 and the mkt dropped 400 pts on FEb 27th
However, we do see some turmoil abounding along with the North Korean nuclear issue this week
and some national protests over TAX issues.

We have some price levels to watch over the next 2 months
spx hit 875, and that is just under the 23.6% gain which would have taken it to 881-
Got darn close at 875 , and NOTE the Murrey math level of 878 was not breached
so getting to the 909 level doesnt seem probable

there was 908 pts lost from Oct 2007 high to March 9th LOW
there was 208 pts gained from 667 to 875

Math break down for possible lower levels
38.2% = 82 pts = spx to 793
50% = 104 pts = spx to 768
62% = spx to 743
78% = spx to 708

Using the 40 pt rule of thumb we get something quite similar
875- 40= 835-
-40= 795
-40=755
-40= 715
____________________________________________________
IF the move from March 9 to April 18 was a primary wave 1,
then the next is a primary wave 2 retracement as per the math above

NOw, of course we will look for an incredible primary wave 3 > 4 & 5 after
wave 2 is finished, which could run up at high as a 62% retracement back up to spx 1100
AND could be completed by March 2010 thus matching Anniv of the the March 2000 high

This is ALL just specualtion at this time, but very likely given wave structures that weve seen mnay times b4.
NOW<>

Kondratief Wave

Just in case you forgot where we are in the course of human history,
I think this is a GOOD REMINDER

We began slipping into the winter of our discontent in 2001,
and now we are feeling the full brunt of winter and will continue for a
number of years

Just look back at the last one to get a feel for the nature of the beast

Fortunately for option and now ETF's players, we have an edge

We will know when its time for a change when Your/ My neighbor who knows nothing at
all except mutual funds comes to us and tells us about investing in a great
new product called 3x reverse ETF's

20 years ago, i was in an industry that was marketing mutual funds and term insurance
you couldnt get people out of their guaranteed 4 % whole life ins product

NOW its 20 years later, and LAST YEAR before fall ,I couldnt get anyone who owns a
mutual fund to switch it to a money market within the same family-& thats at no cost
NO, they said, I will stay with what ive got--
I was not even making any $$ on it- it was just a suggestion to my so called friends
WEll, I guess its the old adage- no one takes $$ advice from friends

One excuse for NOT switching would mean a low interest rate on $mkt funds
HOW STUPID and Lame can you get.
I see-- its better to lose 40% than get 2% interest
I havent asked anyone lately only because its too late to do anything that would
preserve the cash

IN One of my wife's mutual fund account, I was in $mkt most of last year
except when I saw a chance for a quick gain-
Not only did I preserve value to the account but also added some value.
OH well such is life
______________________________________________

Im still not ready for Monday, but did you notice how the HOURLY works
3pm hit a LOW and turned higher into 3:43PM, then dropped off in the last 15 minutes

Now we should expect a low at the 11am hourly on Monday which potentially could be the LOD
which ALSO coincides with 180 bars, so its nearly a given to be a substantial low and strong turn

more later
Jay

Heres a chart of 1937 to 1942 thats being looked at by some groups

Not advocating this chart, but its as good as anything else we can imagine

And it fits a 2011 - 2012 ultimate low = Kondratief wave

Also - if its accurate to today, then it also depicts my projection for a
sharp drop from May 18th to June18th as per the 60 year cycle from 1949

Don't live by this, but do keep a copy handy as time progresses.

More Later
Jay

UPDATE

Tim McCarthy's newest chart now shows the 29th as a potential TOP

I am STILL ON TRACK for a robust rally after 2-3pm TODAY
Monday Apr 20 looks sluggish

April 21 & 22 look STRONG
but the 22nd could give it up for selling in the afternoon

FED meets on Apr28 & 29th - thus anticipation might get slapped in the face
becoming buy the rumor, sell the news

Astro agrees with the charts he has presented
and his work has nothing to do with astro

IF your a bull, then its a matter of catching the best UP days
between now and the 28th/29th
If your a BEAR, then my suggestion is to wait out the 29th
and get the best of bears to May4th

As for TODAY
Hmmm,
Hourly 11am so far off 55
30bars @ 11;30 - not effective or use the truncated 11 am time slot
still waiting for 2pm convergence to get long

Its NOW almost NOON & the ACTIVITY INDEX has dropped in the last
30 minutes from 233 all the way down to 66
There is a 60 minute delay thus we should expect prices
to start dropping after the noon hour

Coy's index calls for lower tomrrow
but
Late day has Merc 120 Saturn
Venus turns direct @ 2:25
3;14pm high tide

THERE is NO heavy astro after 3pm today until late on April22nd
then we look to the 24th after 2;38pm for another cluster of hard asepcts

whats that all mean ??
mostly positive ions charging the earth making people
less sensitive to any bad news thus allowing us to feel like being buyers until the 24th

My astro opinion for the moment is still a high on the 24th mid day

More Later
Jay

Picture Worth 1000 Words

Courtesy Tim McCarthy- one of our followers

April 22nd is an important high this month
May 18/19th LOOMS LARGE as an important high for May
June 3rd looms large for an important high for June

This graph above pictures the dates that Ive been posting

Remember that May 19th to June 18th could be the BEST shorting OPP this year
and could rival Oct- Nov last year

June 18th could be the same catapult that occurred on Nov 21st, 2008
and we could see multiple 500 pts days in both directions from May 18th to late June

More Later
Jay

April13

Its 8am and OUR futures are in dramatic opposition to Europe
My propensity index DID take a TURN lower overnight
the POWER index had been indicating a DROP today as of last Friday
Natural energy also indicates a drop this week

Today We see a lower day, somewhat up mid day of course,
and a lower close which should lead to a lower open on the 14th and repeat
the process one more time to meet a 156 bar low on the 15th at open
____________________________________________-
Even tho the Bradley - 8 day low & trade day cycles hit on the 16th,
I see the actual low on the 15th at open , but that could adjust as the wave develops
______________________________-

more later
Jay

April 10th projection

April 16th is definitely an important date, AND I really think it will be a low

Using astro and cycles heres why
1; its an 8 day low following the last 8 day cycle which was a high
on Friday, Apr 3rd with Monday 6th as turn thus making the 17th as the 8 day TURN

2. astro readings
call for a stressful & practical day
17th call is for $$ gets positive

3. 4 & 8 day cycles
248 from Apr14th, 2008, a low
116 from Oct 27th, a low
60 from Jan 20th, a low
the above are divisible by 4 & or 8

4. 110 NOV 4th, 2008, , a High - not Oct 4th
165 = 110 + 55 = Aug15th a high
70 Jan 5th, a high
55 day progressions are not ALL high to high or low to low
they can be mixed
_______________________________________

FROM there the rally should resume to DOW 9000 and spx 900 by months end.

More Later
Jay

FULL MOON - CATAPULT

Full moons are good for somethings if your a bull

Told ALL to get long between 2pm and 4pm yesterday

SPX Futures now up 19.20 at 9am

Look for big UP day with roll over on Monday - good day to get short
but more about that over the wkend

April 8th LOD at 3:10pm
Marked the Bradley date

Full moon of 9th NOW the CATAPULT

Exactly as predicted from Last wkend & before

More Later
Jay

Picture worth 1000 words

Thanks Rotrot -couldn't resist showing it here
hope its ok with you

Bears giving up too soon
________________________________________
Some additional features

April 16th = 248 tr days from April14, 2008 LOW
Apr 16 = a Bradley date
Apr 16 = 60 tr days from Jan 20 LOW = 15 cycles of 4 or 8cycles of 8
Apr 16 = 29cycles of 4 = 116 tr days from oct27th LOW
April 18th = a Bradley date

It would appear the MAIN cycle LOW is April 16th
Jan 6 to 20th the dow lost 1000 pts
Not saying we get that, but ive already put out some math

April 16 is 8 day LOW
Apr 17 is 8 day TURN

More Later
Jay

Back & Forth

Before we look AHEAD , we should LOOK back a bit
---------------------------------------------------------------
Mar 8th Sunday Sun 180 Saturn
mar 9th Monday Merc # venus - ALSO 250 tr day cycle from March 10th, 2008 LOW
mar 10 full moon @ 9:39PM ~ full & new moons can act as a CATAPULT on stock prices

Skip ahead
March 30 Sun 0 Merc ~~ Merc 45 Nptne ~~ Sun 45 Nptne ~~Merc # Uranus
Mkt off 250 pts and opens on April 1st off 125 right after the Midnite high tide
-------------------------------------------------------------
Now what happens next
Most things seemed to be pointing toward a lower close on April 2nd
BUT astro had other ideas
& April3rd = an 8 day HIGH
April 4th ~~Merc 60 jupiter ~~ Merc II Saturn ~~ Merc II venus ~~
Venus II Saturn ~~moon 120 Sun

THESE ALL have POSITIVE readings
All in ARIES DURING THE G20 meetings =indicating enthusiasm-
NEW starts ~~avoid rejection & censure
looking for focus ~ & confidence

NOW doesnt that sound like the events of the recent conference ?
_____________________________________________________
OK, that was then - NOW things CHANGE
Mars 180 saturn at 8pm saturday
Monday is an 8 day TURN- these turns are very consistent -
Bradley date Apr 8th
Full moon April 9th , but this time at 9:56 AM ~~Reading for this full moon is climactic
Harsh aspects b4 the full moon will take DC by surprise
Also indicates financial pressure + disagreements & obstacles

SOO<> when is the FULL MOON catapult ?
April 9th appears BEST and could happen right from the open OR
AFTER 9:55 am where there is a convergence of the full moon and 2 other short term cycles

my power index seems to indicate a low on the 8th with a huge rebound on the 9th
Now just because I had a difficult time reading that index last week
doesnt mean I should give up what has worked so well b4,
but maybe a little tweak would work
______________________________________________________________
A rebound on 9th, a full day of trading includes the 10th as its a holiday
Apr10th ~ Sun 60 Jupiter & mars 30 Jupiter ~ Merc 120 Pluto ~~merc # nptne
all are highly positive and illusionary with a neptune influence
Its likely they might have a little more UPside to go on the 13th -
which would make it a great time to get short again
___________________________________________________
After the 13th or during the 13th - the atmosphere NOW becomes negative again
Merc # Jupiter = be realistic with $
Merc 45 Mars = agitation & anger
Merc 45 uranus
15th~~ Mars 0 Uranus = Rebellion at 5am
15th Sun 60 nptune @ 3pm - more illusions
16th - mars II Uranus @2pm = wild explosive agitations
Merc # pluto at 3pm =unforgiving & relentless
___________________________________________

Then comes the change to positive again
but more on that later

summary

Europe could be down 3 % late on our Sunday = down for our Monday
Natural energy which indicated a high on Mar 30 is still showing down till the 10th
but here's a TWEAK I mentioned BECAUSE the POWER index jumps
on the 9th from the 300 level to 700
thats ONE HUGE JUMP & stays there on the 10th

OK - OVERALL - we get the following;
LOW On 8th
high on 13th & possible turn lower
Low on 16th
____________________________________________
Math
1500 pts rally x fibo
38.2% = 600 to give up
50% = 750
62% = 900
take your pic
dow8000 - 600 = 7200
spx 845- 75 = 770 to 755
____________________________________________
EXPECT NO CRASH and NO NEW LOWS
________________________________
In fact a HIGHER high should be reached by late April
OR May 18th - That should be the END of a 3 legged really
A wave was April 3rd
B wave low on Apr16th
C wave high on May 18th - sun 0 Merc
That & baby makes Wave 4
___________________________________
After May 18th till June 18th
WAVE 5 = ""Danger Will Robinson""

BUT more on that Later
Jay

WHATS Next After April 2nd

IS Bullishness ALSO foolishness on April1st ??
COULD VERY WELL BE

Natural energy has been Lagging the market by a few days now
The expected low on March 18th hit on March 20th
___________________________________
The expect high on March 30th { SUN 0 Merc} did not occur till April 2nd
April 1st & 2nd had A SUN - Merc & Venus at 0 * in ARIES
Aries indicates new starts - ALAH - G 20
also indicates ENTHUSIASM and I dont want to insult anyone AIR H----D
remember Greeny's expression of 1996 - exhuberance , hmmm
It looks like the atmosphere will NOW turn back into REALITY
___________________________________________
Now we are looking to potential lows on April 8/9th and or April15/16th -
YES thats options week
WITH a REACTION rebound on the 9th into the 13th.

The last Bradley March 12 &15 SHOULD have been the
9th & 10th to be more accurate also depicting a discrepancy of time
_______________________________________
Todays energy reading says we should COAST thru the AM today- then it says
Later ON - Harmony and enthusiasm comes and GOES

Its now just AFTER 9:45 and the mkt is giving up its early small gains
an 8 day high or turn
__________________________________________
OK, enuf conjecture -Lets get back to work

A 156 bar cycle at 4pm yesterday dropped the mkt in the last 30 minutes right after 3;33 as I wrote

Today we have
180 b @ 11;30
204b @ 1;30
228b @ 3;30

that means 258b is on Monday @ 11;30
And you know the reg hourly times
________________________________________
but more important is looking at the next Bradley
Is supposed to be the 8th with natural energy LATE
applying its influence
I say that because on the 9th we have a confluence of cycle at 10am
FULL moon @ 9:56 am
UNLIKE its previous event on March 10th, that one took place at 9:39PM
and the reading for March 10th was much more positive than
April9th which indicates a climax between needs and desires.
_______________________________________
In addition to the April 9 th full moon, we also have
14.6% of 13 day cycle @ 9:50am
228bar cycle low @ 10am

TODAY made an 8day high
Monday is an 8 day turn
between NOW and April16th
It looks like we should get an A_B_C or 3 leg decline in a
typical corrective move against the latest run up from

March 9th to April 2nd
was 18 tr days + 9 = April 16
18 x 3 = 54 tr day progressions
or its parts of 18 and or 9

55 trade day progression
2008
May30high
Aug 16 low
Nov 4th high
2009
Jan 27 low
April 16 low
____________________________________
Way back in history {{On or about March 6th}} I wrote to look for a
rally to SPX 845 with 847 as the murrey math magnet
Now that they got there - the lower levels of support are at 816 - & 785 then 754

Using fibo as a guide for the April16th low
spx 666 to 845 = 180 pts
180 x 38.2% = 70
50% = 90
62% = 111
78% = 140
100 % = 180

You can do the math to get to the appropiate spx levels
but 755 spx = murrey math support
______________________________________________
also on April16th we have a 13 day cycle LOW segment at 2pm
& at 2pm we also see a Mars II Uranus indicating explosive
arguments and possible accidents
& at 3pm there is a Merc # Pluto = unforgiving an relentless mindset
____________________________________________
Whew - I just might not add anything to the above for
the next 10days - or maybe just under conments

Summary
A natural energy high may have hit at spx 845 on April 2nd
the NEXT dates of importance are April 8th-9th and April15 -16th
in between is April10-13th

YES, I agree with you COY
Monday could be a very serious day

MORE LATER
Jay

Set up a FALL

It 8:15 and all are waiting for the BIG emplyoment report

WE could see today a REPEAT OF DECEMBER 1st.

Activity index is FLAT LINE at .33 this am - IVE NEVER SEEN IT THAT LOW

Power index down to 250

Propensity index has been dropping all week,
but today it is down to 2940, form a high of 3020

ALVIN - do not go long just yet

more later
Jay

LOST MY POST ??

I dont know if anyone read the last post, but my attempt to edit got it LOST

4/2 higher open


If anyone got it, please copy and pasted into comments
thanks
Jay

Mark to market

Department stores like Macy's and JC Penny show Retail prices on all their goods

Then they discount those prices heavily to get you to buy ON SALE

NOW comes the BANKS
All their assets are ON SALE and now they want to MARK THEM UP TO RETAIL
to make them look better

IS that CRAZY OR WHAT ?????? !!!!!!!!

more later
Jay

A-B-C Rebound

CAN you see what I see in the graph above ?
3 wave rebound off the low at 780.21 - counting as wave 1 DOWN

"A" wave high to 810 at 3pm yesterday
"B" wave low to 784.44 at 9:45 this am
"C" wave High this afternoon, so far at 2:15 @ 812.43

Given the above scenario, then NEXT is wave 3 which will be Down with no prisoners

this "C" wave high only exceeded the "A" wave high by a narrow margin
which could be labeled as a FLAT which actually is a very weak formation
even tho it doesn't look that way right now.

PC ratios were some what bearish yesterday

Propensity index is trending LOWER and the price levels
seen in stock prices should respond accordingly

activity index at this juncture is EXACTLY like yesterday -
FLAT at lowest possible levels .66

Power index may have offered a confusing picture because
it shows this action occurring tomrrow
if you remember I expected a wipsaw tomrrow which NOW looks iffy at best.

The next important low should be at the open on Friday
156 bars hits at open on Friday ,just like 258 bars hit today
with the rest of that day on the rebound, just like today,
and might even continue UP into Monday's open


More later
Jay

April 1st Times

Bars
30b @ noon
60b@ 2:30


Hourly
11 am
1pm
3pm

NOTICE that 60b is at 2:30, and there is a 3pm hourly

Im guessing that the 60b will extend into 66 b due to the influence of the 3pm hourly

I will be inclined to close out my positions at or near 3pm today

MY power index is showing potential for a huge intraday rebound tomrrow, so i dont want to
be sitting in my shorts at the open on April 2nd

Also note Today's open was a continuation of the 258 bar cycle at 4pm into the open
Right now the DOW is FLAT after open down 100 pts
the power index does seem to show that, AND a drop the rest of the day

Got a little hungry at 10am - anyone else notice it ??

Activity index dropped from 200 to 100 at open and staying in a very narrow range

More Later
Jay

Gyrations but Lower

Yes the mkt is headed lower
yes there will be gyrations
BUT we need to be able to make $$ on the above


Yesterday's high at 2:55 at 810spx hit the high note BUT where is the low note ?

Im better at WHEN
Im still looking at April 8th for the next TRADEABLE low note, but we will update as we go

for NOW
I still have April 2nd at NOON for a near term low point, and whip saw UP till 3pm {most likely} on the same day
Believe it or not, my POWER index shows a collapse right after and a lower low on the MORNING of April 3rd.

Not sure how Im going to play that scenario, but will keep updating as we go
I dont like to get whipped around like that- I need to have control.
AND - Its hard to wrap your brain around trading that kind of day,
so I might consider closing out shorts on the close today
rather than wait for noon on the 2nd??????

KEEP THIS In MIND for April 2nd - IT IS POSSIBLE for a higher open, which makes the noon low, NOT a lower low
but only a dip within a rebound to that 3pm high;
can they actually duplicate the 3pm high again ??- it sure can - maybe 2;45 this time- but im just guessing


Also check Twitter during the day for ONE LINE snippet UPDATES

More Later
Jay

Hit the HIGH notes at 3pm

AND the DOW hit 7725 at 3pm & spx @ 810

3pm LOW yesterday turned into a 2:55 pm HIGH today + 200 pts

Did I buy puts -- Yes

made a second FAILED attempt at 3;30pm

AND DROPPING FAST after 3;30

Next update at 8am tomorrow

More Later
Jay

OVERSOLD

PC ratios & Technical data says OVERSOLD

BUT for HOW LONG & HOW HIGH

My Math
till SPX 801 to 807

833-781= 52 pts
52 x 38.2% = 20
781+ 20 = 801
______________
50% = 26
781+26 = 807

Thats equal to a gain of about 160 to 215 dow points
_______________

You get the math, RIGHT?
now what about TIME

As I mentioned yesterday as a low was occurring at 3pm
--I ALMOST BOT SOME CALLS but backed off

LOW @ 180 bars at 4pm was scheduled
but the ACTUAL turn seems to have hit at 3pm
As mentioned b4 -{ 3pm} - is a FREQUENT flier for TURNS on the hourly circuit

156 bars at 2pm was ALSO an important low- did anyone else get physically hungry after 2pm
does anyone else notice this other than me?
_________________________________________
OK< that was then, ~~ NOW what about TODAY

I previously mentioned we could see highs at 11am or 1pm & or 3pm today and that still works
more specifically Some of my projections are indicating 2 peaks today
I think that would mean 11am and then 3pm

Heres the projected FLOW TODAY {{ its a battle of the hourly verses the Bars}}
an 11am HOURLY HIGH is followed by 204bars @ 11;30 low
a 1pm HOURLY high is followed by a 228bar low @ 1:30
and a 3pm HOURLY high is followed by 258 bars at either 4pm OR open on WEd
just because 180 bars was truncated doesnt mean it will happen again @ 258 bars

Just in case you cant read between those lines
it means today is TRENDED UP
but it could be UP - LOWER then UP again
and today's close COULD ,but not necessarily take a hit at close, but even if it doesnt
IT WILL TOMORROW at the OPEN.

THE NEXT DOWN MOVE does LOOK like ALL DAY April 1st and APRIL 2nd till NOON

MY GAME PLAN IS THE SAME AS YESTERDAY
GET SHORT on rallies
anything near DOW 7725 will trigger put buying for ME

More Later
Jay

Rebound Threatens maybe - updated at 3:10pm

RIGHT NOW ITS 2;45pm
AND
My daily Activity index is starting to show some LIFE

You must remember that 3pm is one of the most common HOURLY turns

it was moving DOWN & up between 1oo & 166 all day till now
IT just moved UP to the 200 level which should be seen in stock price increases
within 30 to 60 minutes

If the close today is higher then the OPEN tomrrow will be lower
IF the close today is LOWER, then they should still open lower

MY game plan is to prepare to get short on the rally tomrrow
could be as early as 11am
or as late as 3pm
but I see 1pm as most the likely place

It really wont matter, if I miss the high by a few dollars, but its ALWAYS
nice to catch the highest and lowest values occasionally when trading

thats why I do whats called scale trading or buy options at various levels

More later
Jay

OK NOW ITS LATER

OK< IT JUST TOOK A BIG JUMP TO 266 at 2;55
add 30 minutes and the close should be higher

Incredible
the activity index at 3:10 pm just took a DIVE after reaching 266
its NOW at 133
thats a 50% LOSS in one quick kick

SO< NOw we go back to watching the 180 bar cycle close out the day on tis lows

REMEMBER - this is JUST the beginning of this downturn
Jay

Sell off Continues

I was hoping for a typical open, but it looks like the PROPENSITY index is confirming a
low at the 11;30 to noon time slot at

126 bars @ 11;30
and
55% of the 13day cycle ALSO as 11;30

any rebound should also give way to a lower close and or lower open on Tuesday
AT 180 bars

The propensity index is also confirming a sharp rebound on Tuesday as does the power index
THEN - exactly what time tomrrow it will peak is only a guess BUT

using what we know about typical hourly cycle we can look at either 11am or 1pm or 3pm
or we could add short positions at each time slot, but I should have a better idea on that tomrrow

It would look like April fools day belongs to the bears club

Any time we get a downtrend like this off a 4th wave high,
we can expect huge but SHORT live rebounds which we should see on
March 31st and AGAIN on April 2nd

BUT DO KEEP this in MIND
the trend is DOWN thru at least April 8th for NOW
SOOO, Any intraday rallies will give way to more selling thru April8th
April 8th is also a midnite low tide

April 10th is closed for good Friday
so any rebound that lasts all day would have to happen on the 9th
and it could be quite a bullish day

More later
Jay

Variations On Today

As I mentioned - Charts edge is only a rough guide

Today we have the futures opening about 150 dow pts lower

The propensity index is indicating DOWN open , quick rebound, lower low, UP mid day and matching low close

More specifically - Typical times are
9:45 open low
10am rebound high
LOW at 11:30 @ 13 day cycle & 126bars
Midday rebound at 1pm and or 3pm
4pm lower close @ 180bars

the Propensity index shows tomrrow higher at least at the open - & the power index
agrees to that point, but shows a closing decline - but more on that later


GOLD now following stocks and once under 900, then 800 could be next week's target price
@ the 6 & 12 week cycle convergence next week on the 8th as a mid week date.


More later
Jay

This WEEK"S GAME PLAN

I have no reason to doubt charts edge projections this week

His charts and predictions are not expensive and easy to read
sometimes they are quite good, and sometimes not so good, but worth having
regardless
________________________________________
JUST A NOTE OF CAUTION ABOUT USING CHARTS EDGE
ITS FOR GENERAL direction only -
do not use it to get exact SPX pricing
NOR
exact turn HOURS
________________________________________
I had previously inferred an UP Monday and still think it is correct
Monday we have the typical hours
11am
1pm
3pm
plus or minus 10 minutes either way for directional turns

Pivot LOWS
The 50%/13 day cycle hit at 2pm Friday March 27th - EXACTLY
NEXT
the 55% /13day cycle is due at 11:29 on March 31st
62%/13day cycle @ 10:43 on Tuesday
100% /13day cycle on April 7th at 10:30am

Monday's bars
126b@ 11;30am
150B @ 1;30pm
180b @ either of 4pm or open on Mar 31st

lets piece the Monday puzzle together
A bar cycle & 13 day cycle are hitting at 11;30 am, and that should setup a trading low
should you wish to buy into it, or to sell you shorts if you still held them over the wkend.
Then a 1pm and or 3 pm high should give out to a close that's off the high

Tuesday has a 13 day low at 10:43
and 204b @ 11;30
the pic above doesnt show those cycles, so do be cautious
However, a MID DAY high AGAIN at 1pm does appear to me very likely ,
and does seem like a very good place to buy puts which at this point in time look
good till April 3rd. & or April 7th

Now just remember these are FUTURE projections and will be updated
as the week progresses
My power index and propensity index are both shorter term measures

Natural energy is powerfully negative for April 3rd
and there is a Bradley date on April8th
along with a midnite low tide

As written b4, the first 8 days of April tend to look difficult for everyone
including stock prices

More Later
Jay

2pm- Update March 27th

As projected yesterday, getting short on rallies will pay off today
Make it so, said the Captain

As for me, I intend to close out my shorts between 3pm and 4pm today
and might just do it in steps

heres why
90 bars @ 3pm is ALSO the daily HOURLY cycle

Then there is 102bars at 4pm, but that's not a typical bar cycle low

BUT , heres the IF part.
IF 3pm Accentuates the down trend, then it should continue to 3:32pm
IF 3pm is a high point, as if there were such a thing today, but as a trader,
you know what i mean, THEN the same thing 3:32 - 3:42 could be the LOD
the defining moment is usually @ 3:05 to 3;10pm

However, IF 3pm is making a defined low, then I would have a tendency to bail out
Either way you play it , it will have been a beary good day

More later
Jay

March - April 2009

Today is a DOWN ---Up ----DOWN
but Mostly DOWN

Still expecting a rebound day on Monday,
but in the overall scope of direction - it wont mean much

Are they headed to MAJOR new lows in April, May or June ???
AND HOW LOW IS LOW ??

WEll :: after dropping from SPX 1550 to 667, the MAJOR DAMAGE has ALREADY been done
and the rebound to SPX813 makes some people feel better, but that's all it does
Nothing technical has changed.

LOOKS LIKE A typical 4th wave from March 9th to 26th.

BUT more PAIN is still ahead -
As much as the Obama administration has take the bull, or bear
as you will by the horns or teeth, the CYCLE still has more to play itself out.

______________________________________________
Ive mentioned this several times
The 60 year cycle is due to BOTTOM in Mid June
There is a Bradley date convergence in June14th and 18th

Once that is out of the way, you can expect the DOW Jones to make
it back to at least $10K by March of 2010

BUT just like Year 2000, it may only be the EYE of the storm
we will cover that in more detail as we make progress in time

More later
Jay
ps; my mother in law thinks its time to buy GOLD
what does that tell you about the price of gold \
\
\
\

When to get short

The 180 bar cycle APPEARS to have been elongated and hit with the hourly at
3pm and 192 bars
That was a bit unexpected but still made $ on the put trade bot at noon

Today they look like the rally will continue
I will be shorting the DJX at each high today
Highs should attempt the magic # dow 8000
spx could get to that magic 845 we mentioned a few days ago

I would anticipate a high at Most Likely 11am on the NEW MOON could be the HOD

As written yesterday, the BETTER trades will be to the short side until April8th

Monday, March 30th still has potential to rally, but we might end up viewing it as
wave 2 rebound rather than wave 5 failure- but it matters not for our trades
which way it ends up getting counted

Power index & propensity index Continue to show a drop LATER today into tomrrow
TECHNICAL INTERNALS ISSUED a SELL on Monday March 23rd

Adv/decl -----Vol ---- Arms 5 ------trin 5---- trin 10
1943--------6114------76.6---------383-------72.5

One of the MOST important #s above the 10day TRIN
HUGE SELL signal well under 100.0
5 day trin under 400
5 day arms way under 100.0

More later
Jay

Conflicting resources

I had been reporting dow 8000 as a place it could get to and stay for at least a day

BUT ive got evidence coming in NOW that is lending some doubt to that scenario
And EVEN if it does occur, it is SOOO short lived it wont matter

My power index is inferring another day like today
The Propensity index is a DITTO

Friday's potential looks WEAK as originally posted at least thru the Morning
SOO, any sell off Late on the 26th should continue into the 27th until noon

Heres MY game PLAN- make your own choices
The NEW moon at 11:07 am is considered to be very ENTHUSISTIC
Thus I WILL BE SHORTING any RALLY tomorrow
and I would expect a high at 2:15pm

I WILL say this about tomrrow,
its going to be very hard NOT to buy calls on any lower open
the dow should at least touch 8000, and thats only 250 pts from here

BUT it will be EASY to buy puts at 2pm
WHY, because even if Im wrong for a day -
Early April will be a big winner for those puts
so I can afford to hold them, but I dont think that will be neccesary

I really PREFER to be OUT of a position at days end
but shorting tomrrow at 2:15pm should bring rewards on Friday at
noon

More Later
Jay

Just as the Dr Ordered

I hope no one minds a little attempt at humor once in a while

BUT I wont tell Jokes - YUK

Today the HOURLY times were in CHARGE
Approximately
11am high
1pm collapse
3pm Low

I would venture to guess NOW that the OPEN tomorrow @ 204 bars would
setback to probably SPX 800

Still expecting the dow to make it at or near an 8000 close
tomorrow, or Friday into Monday
OR at least within the NEXT 3 days to give it a range

The rebound late today is from a Natural energy source at 5pm

A lower open for me is an OPP to buy calls
GE & BAC did well so far from the March 6th lows
C is struggling, but I think it should make it to $5.00 ?
But the DJX now at 7750 - it wont take much to get to that 8000

More Later
Jay

BINGO

Got the EXPECTED rally on OPEn till 11;54
Why 11;54 ?/ Natural Energy HIGH + 178
Might be HOD dow + 190 @ 10:45 ~~ BUT there might be another attempt at 3;42pm

150 bars @ 11;30 was right on schedule Dow +140
180 bars @ 2pm might drag it down to a minor gain

204bars at CLOSE or OPEn on Thsday
the jury is still out on this forecast, but it wont matter in the long run

I sold my calls at 11;54 and bot some puts on the DJX
I will be selling those on close today or open tomrrow
and buying calls at the open low

Jaywiz blog is right on track so far this week

More Later
Jay

higher yet?? but NOT today

There are some indications the Higher OPen that I anticipated for this morning

MIGHT happen on Wed at open, but the balance of the day should sell off

leading to an OPENING low on the 26th

_________________________________

today, so far, hit the low notes and high notes on schedule
9:45 LOW & 10am high
BUT more important
10:45 am was the 60 bar cycle right on exact
THEN 1:30 pm a MINOR dip at 90bars

Its Now 1:40pm and counting
The DAILY Activity index is bouncing between 133 and 266 in a very narrow range

____________________

Hourly turned up at 11am & 1pm


OK now its 7 pm and the CLOSE hit a low
AT 126 bars

THAT LEAVES THE DOOR OPEN FOR A BIG RALLY
ON WEd AM

WEd looks LIKE UP / Down / Up & DOWN at the close like today.
WHY ? Because the CLOSE is at 204bars and should close DOWN

The Power index seems to be RIGHT ON THE LINE between
Wed & thsday, so it accentuates the potential for another sell off
or at least giving up its early hard earned gains

The 26th however, is calling for a run for dow 8000 is likely

The AM of 27th wants to take it away, but should give it back later in the day.

MORE LATER
Jay

March 24th update

At 9am the futures are leading the open to down about 100 dow points

So, my outlook for a higher open is delayed, and could occur later in the day

typical times would be either 11am or 1pm

But the CLOSE does look lower

Soo, today becomes
DOWN-- UP-- DOWN

More Later
Jay

Now What for March 24th ?

I am still expecting an overflow tomrrow AM
Might get to 846 or almost there

BOTH the propensity And the Power indexes
are leading the mkt higher at tomrrows open
&
Heres how HOURS work
We got at LOW on Friday at 2:45
ADD 8.6 hours and we get the HIGH at 9:45 to 10am tomrrow

THEN GET READY for a SELL OFF, but again NOTHING dramatic
I will be selling my calls and buying some limited puts at the open
given the above scenario works out as described.
____________________________________
TOMRROW is an 8day cycle HIGH
Wed is an 8 day cycle TURN
whats that mean ? your asking - good question
It means we settle back after a strong open and
continue to sell off on the 25th

________________________________________________
AS mentioned b4, the NEW moon in ARIES indicates a NEW START on the 26th
thus we get another BULLISH run on 26th which should complete on Monday March 31st.
SOO, the NEXT BUY OPP is the morning of the 26th since the new moon is not until 11:07am

If the Spx breaks above 847, the next level is 878

Remember what I wrote on March 3rd
The Dow will make a run to 8000 by months end
not far off now at 7776

MORE LATER
Jay

March 23 & 24 for now

Monday March 23rd
Has the POWER index
&
Propensity index pointing towards a higher open & higher close

In between the Natural Energy transmitted by the Pluto square at1:32
and the 258 bar cycle at 1pm will have a tendency to pull things lower
at that time.

March 24th looks a little weak, but nothing Dramatic, and might even start out higher.

25th also looks sluggish , but once again nothing too steep

I really LIKE the potentail for the 26th and 27th ~~~ IF YOUR A BULL ~~~ " that is"

IF your chasing BEAR TRACKS this week , your NOT going to be happy

SPX --- once thru 816 resistence will have the next resistance at 830

Hourly remains in tack
11am
1pm
3pm
+ or - 15 min either way

Bar cycle LOWS intraday

258b to 270b@ 1pm to 1;30
30b@ 3:15pm

PS; these bar cycles DO NOT have to be LOWER LOWS
they are merely pivot points from which the mkt can move higher
right after each cycle
such UP moves usually trend higher for about 2hours
before getting sucked into the bar cycle vacuum tube

This is SIMPLY the markets way of BREATHING
or you can call it MKT RYTHM,
& if your a musician, you will understand


More later
Jay

DATES of Importance

OK -- So far we have
an astro master and tide master

March 23rd means something
Sun 90 Pluto
Action between the inner most and outer most planet
that is If you still consider Pluto a planet

I like march 26th turns UP
March 26th NEW moon at IN ARIES
that means FRESH NEW START -
March 31st Contact of sun and Merc with Neptune
Neptune = PLANET of ILLUSION

SO, is IT ILLUSION when the market SINKS
or is it JUST reality setting in
You be the judge - whats your sentiment

Next is
April 8th = a BRADLEY DATE
last one was a high
Venus @ 0 degrees Aries in RETRO
Midnite LOW tide
9th is FULL MOON

We ALL know what happened on March
10th @ that full Moon effect
Will it come again- My vote is YES

Any one chasing big black crows from their back yards this wkend?
The Raven and black crows Clacking have always been used by literary types
to denote danger- I wonder how they got that idea??


MORE LATER
Jay

NO CRASH NEXT WEEK Mar 23 to 30

****THERE IS NO POTENTIAL to CRASH or MINI crash Next WEEK****

When I cranked out my last blog post, there were some typo errors
which I edited at the blog

GO BACK TO March 5th posting
TO see where we were then
Read the blog post on March 5th WHICH Called for a LOW on the 6 and or 9th
and a HUGE rally of potential of 200 spx points from 667 THRU March 26th to 30th.
WERE NOT FINISHED WITH THAT YET

SO FAR we got 139 pts to MARCH 18, and there is possible a little higher still.
MMath did NOT break above 816 level, and if it does, could get to 847,
BUT I DOUBT it will do that

The Low today at close spx = 768 and MMath support is at 754
Monday has the SUN 90 Pluto at 1:32 and coincides with 258bars @12;45 + 12 bar variance

From there, we could see a couple days of lackluster activity
however the 26th to 30th as mentioned on MARCH 5th
HAS the potential to blow it out to highest resistance at spx 816 to 847
or somewhere IN BETWEEN those 2 levels

SO---as written b4

THE BEST TIME TO GET SHORT WILL BE on MARCH 30th at close

ThE BEST TIME to GET LONG will be APRIL8th at close
___________________________________

and the time period between march 30 and April8th DOES offer the potential to
MAKE NEW SPX lows to 634 level or even as low as 604
{{Now}} IF you want to call that a crash, be my guest,
but i didnt write it---You assumed it -that means it your falt {{GGG}}
I dont want to take the blame because I dont get any credit either???
spx 816 to 634 or 604 = about 200 pts = 1600 dow pts
______________________________________

GOLD has followed stocks from ITS Feb 34th HIGH to a LOW on March 10th low at
896 to a HIGH on March 18th at 962
with stocks at the same exact time.
SOOOO , theres NO reason to expect gold to do anything other than
PLUNGE during the same time period

_________________________________________
Cycle events today
OPEN high till 9:45
150 bars @ 10:15 am , a LOW
3pm low was between 204 & 210 bars

Hourly
11am turned lower
1;15 Turned lower
3pm _turned UP to 3;32
____________________
and Of course Monday
as written above should make a low at 1;32 time slot


More Later
Jay
ps ; I love the colors @ the NEW comcast email

UPDATE

THE Chart above shows the following wave structure

March 2009 Low hit on the March 6th= Wve 5 of downtrend from Feb 23rd
March 9 wv 1 & 2
March 10th started wv 3
March 17th @ 9:40 wave 4
March 18th @ 2;52pm =Fed rally = wv 5
coincidental with high tide on 18th

More Perspective

258 Bars on the 18th at 10;30 was the LOD
high spx 805 at 2;52pm after Fed announcement

19th
90bars at 11:45 was the LOD
126b @3pm provided another low

In between
11:00 am turns lower to 11:45 @ 126b
1:00 pm turns higher to the 2;05 high
3:00 pm low turns higher to 3:32
___________________________________________
OK now, that brings us to today
March 20th

REMEMBER __ all BAR cycle are LOWS
hourly cycles at 11-1- & 3 are biased highs,
but can be either and usually provide strong turning points
~~ good data for day traders

TODAY Up bias first half day
down bias second half
Equinox
Midnite low tide
________________________________________
Next is Monday March 23rd
DOWN bias till 1;32pm
why?? you ask - lets explore

Sun 90 Pluto @ 1:32pm 258 bars @ 12:30pm,
BUT could run over to 270 bars due to pluto square

Bias for the rest of the week is somewhat positive
AND more so on the 27th to 30th
WHY ?, you ask - geesh, you sure are needy {{gg}}

OK heres the astro answer
27th Sun 0 Venus
28th Merc 0 venus
30th Sun 0 merc
Merc 45 Nptne
sun 45 Nptne

The ABOVE aspects are quite positive for stock prices
BUT after the 30th the BIZ atmosphere turns SOUR till APRIL8th

____________________________________________
I dont know if anyone notices this or has observed people and
how they behave toward you or others when
the mkt is UP verses days when it is DOWN
BUT
I think you will notice that
DOWN days= GOOD BEHAVIOR
UP days = Poor behavior
If you haven't recorded this b4, maybe you should start now


Scroll down to previous posts to find out
when it will best to be a BULL
and best to be a BEAR
_______________________________________
More Later
Jay

March 18

Activity index starts out at 200, and then drops to 66 shortly thereafter
Propensity index continues to decline into tomorrows open
high of 3022 to as low as 2990

__________________________________________
GOLD is tracking stocks AGAIN as the DOLLAR takes a hit off 2.70 yesterday

GOld hitting 950 as projected
Next stop 850

Look back at Last years high
both had 95% bullish sentiment at the $1000 level
If you count the 2009 high as a "B" wave, then the next level has to take out the 2008 lows
at about $700
If you count it as a failed 5th , the next low could be less than $600
$600 is considered the APEX of the triangle
________________________________________
Armstrong seems to think that gold would make a high at the suspected June 2009 lows
thats Ok imo, if it continues to track stocks

Armstrong thinks there is a potential for Dow to drop to 4000 in June

Of course we ALL KNOW such EXTREMES will be VERY short lived
the rally that follows, as I HAVE WRITTEN several times
should carry the DOW to possibly 10K by March of 2010
10 year high to high from March 2000 at 14,000

More Later
Jay

SELL OFF delay

FED induced rally today stalls decline a day
needed one more higher high

BUT any loss tomrrow will most likely be made up somewhat on Friday

What remains constant is the SELL Signal issued by my internal technical data
as of Friday March 13th
Sometimes there are delays between the INTERNAL high and the PRICE high
before it has any REAL effect on price levels & trading

THE NEXT BEST BET if your a BEAR
WAIT TILL
March 30th a possible lower high or failed attempt to make higher highs

The NEXT best BET if your a BULL
WAIT TILL
APRIL 8th which might set a lower low at spx 635 level
& Apr 14th could be a secondary retest
similar to March 9th & 10th but with a delay

More Later
Jay

Jaywiz Index

For those who have been with me for while

JAYWIZ INDEX = .12

Havent seen a reading that low in a couple months

Futures at 9 AM are picking up steam lower spx now red 8.30, and dow off 80

once the mkt opens it should be non stop down all day

Yesterday also got a .37 ARMS daily index
as you know, my proprietary technical data gave a sell on Friday
But as we all can see, there was one more high to go
typically the OVERBOT ratios appear on the 3rd wave high which leaves the5th wave to
rally on AIR

Power index is still showing a low on 18th , but that can be off by one day with such tight margins
Propensity index has dropped from 3025 to 3005
Activity index has dropped from 200 to 100
Flux is non existent today , but did have positive activity yesterday
dynamic index has been on the DECLINE for 3 days
VHF hit a high or 12 ealier

NOTE ; ALL THE ABOVE ARE SAYING the mkt is headed DOWN

NOw the OTHER question is
HOW FAR and HOW LONG?

I gave some levels yesterday based on Fibo relationships of a high of 7400 on the dow
7037
6925
6800
are those levels in plain numbers

WHen ?
I also posted a fibo time sequence that porjects a low on Thursday at 2pm

As far as GOLD goes, it should now rebound to about 950
but once there its a great short to 850 by months end

More Later
Jay

ARMS index

ARMS index today = .37
KISS OF DEATH

Sure looks like wave 2 morphed into wave 5
higher high at 7400
that was the goal all along

My propensity index for tomrrow shows selling
the Power index shows potential for big hit

how low is low??????
7400 - 6650 = 950
38% = 370
50% = 475
62% = 600
Should be some part of 2days
we are 7 days UP from the low =45.5 hrs
38.2% x 45.5 hours = 17.38 hrs = 2.67 days
thats thursday at 2pm where there is also a 120bar cycle
Jay

Bars & Hours

Yesterday's bars March 16
120 bars at 11am = minor dip off the 10:30 high
150b @ 1;30= minor dip
HOD at 1:45 just shy of the Merc 30 Venus @2pm
Slide to lower close from there
that was wv 'a' down
_____________________________________
Ok, that was then, THis is NOW

Tuesday at 11;30 as i write this
wv 'b' flat, but wave 'c' should hit before the close
Open high at 9:35 Dow + 20
9:50 low at 180 bars Dow - 36
10am high
HOURLY @ 11am higher - could be HOD ??

Next bars
204b@ noon in 30 minute
228b @ 2pm

Moon 60 Jupiter at 12;38 - might end up as HOD??
Hourly same as always
1pm
3pm
and minor variations of such
_________________________________

18th WEd is MOST IMPORTANT and could be a Dow 400 point down day
Power index shows today as a low
258bars @ 10;30
30 bars at 1pm
60 bars at 3;30
its possible we get 329 bars at 3;55, but Im not counting on it.
Its rare, but it does happen- we did NOT however get 126 bars on Monday at 11;30
126 + 204 = 329/330

Hourly
hit a high today at 11am
next high is 1pm
then 3pm
_____________________________________________-

19th Thursday - power index shows an UP day
astro reading indicates sluggish

100% of 13 day cycle at 10:30 - 11am
This is one reason why the 18th might truncate this cycle and close out at 4pm

90 bars @ 11;30
120 bars @ 2pm
hourly as usual
____________________________________

power index shows an up day
Astro read indicates a good money day

___________________________________
More later
Jay

March 16 to 20 & more

cycles are on schedule

9:45 open high

11am hourly cycle =a dip @ 120 bars

11;30 high

11;55- 12;05= 13 day cycle low

1pm hourly high

1;30 minor ip @ 150bars

2pm AStro high JUST GOT HIT FOR HOD at 1:50pm

ITS NOW 1:50 as I write this

next cycle is 3pm Hourly

nothing after that

maybe 3;32 , IF 3pm hits another lower high

NOTE, 3;32 did rebound but only about 2 spx pts

power index with gap lower open on 17th

17th- Astro says $$ CRUNCH & Crisis brewing

18th - astro reads - sobering dissapointment

19th says hold off & re evaluate - stagnation , but look for bargains

Astro readings for 19th are indicating a FLAT day, but the POWER index says the low is the 18th

The KEY to unraveling that discrepancy will be the 18th -

IF FLAT to Up, then the 19th will most likely be lower as shown by Charts Edge

___________________________________________

still thinking 5 -3 -5
5 UP -we just finished on march 16th at 1;45 pm
3 DOWN -should finish on Mar23rd
5 more UP to March 30th - SUN 0 Merc at 10:30am
Then the NEXT LEG LOWER to April 8th

NOTE
the FULL MOON IS April 9th
JUST LIKE the MARCH 9th LOW occurred on the DAY bEFORE THE FULL MOON + the astro after is quite positive.

ALSo
the SELL OFF NOW to the 18th and or 19th can be at least 80 spx points from the high
775- 80= 695 = the B wave low
IF NOT ON March 18th, then next best bet is 19th, THEN the 23rd.

C wave high on March 30 can make it to 800
667 + 120= 787 + 16 = 803 MAXIMUM


MORE LATER
Jay

Morning OPEN

Notice the OBV -- MACD- & oscilator are not supoorting any further rally at the open

Jay

ONE DAY OFF

Just a quick note to say I might be one day off
ITs my tendency to get short sooner and long late

My Propensity index popped UP from 3006 to 3020 as of today's close
making the 16th as the TURN date via Bradley's 15th turn date
Using 8 pts as an increment we might se the spx + 8 to 765

Astro would indicate the 18th for a low this week, with a bounce on the 20th
then Monday with the Sun 90 Pluto mid day would be the draw down to a
short term low - same as Merlin

I mentioned that March 25th might be a good place to get short.
Again that might be a couple days early as the 31st as previously mentioned
might be a better short- April 8 is next Bradley date

Activity index @9:30am does NOT support a continuation of the opening rally
It moved up to 30 overnight, but within 30 minutes of open it drops to 10

Exhuberation on CBNC with higher futures will probably end at 9:45 and or 10am

Using 40 pt spx moves from the closing of 676 , adding 80 pts takes us to exactly
Friday's close at 757

the next low could be any multiple of the 40 pt rule of thumb
757 - 80= 676 -40= {{ 636}} - 40 = {{ 596}}

both of those lower levels have been previously mentioned by more than one tech


More later
Jay

Next Week

WOWOWOW

we are getting forecasts from SPX 800 to 680 for the coming week

DA Chief --- Don Wolunchuck the PERENIAL BULL
is SNEORTING as of Friday - its usually just a SNORT
so i guess the SNEORT is extra bullish
BUT

Many on his site know that SNORTS means its time to watch out below !!

AND
HIS yawns are A BULL CALL
I will start to report these more frequently
______________________________________________________
Coy Morphew, on Crystal ball site reports his TA- PATHER daily.
It identifies mkt direction for the next day, and he has been quite accurate
He writes that his indicator is calling for an unusually big down day Monday.

ITS very possible we get a SEVERE sell off at open,
then strong recovery during the after noon until 2pm where there is a
soft aspect of Merc & venus
THEN the real decline sets in

My propensity index seems to be indicating such an event
& In that same regard so does astro which has a soft aspect at 2pm
after which there is NO REPRIEVE

THEN the POWER index shows DOWN all the way to WEd CLOSE
an unusual bar count of 329 occurs at 3:55pm on the 18th
the Power index also shows strong UP DAYS on the 19th & 20th

Im Watching 126 bars if hit at 11;30 Monday, then it sets up a
good chance for 329 as above

Astro also indicates DOWN thru late on 18th
19th calls for Time to pick up fresh BARGAINS
& 20th reads good for $ affairs


More Later
Jay

Yes, they got there

That might have been the HIGH of this move

Heres a synopsis of the next 3 weeks
of course it NEVER works out exactly the way it gets projected
but we'll give it a good shot

Counting 5 waves last week from Friday's LOW at spx 666.67 to spx 758 friday at 10am,& 3;30pm
Friday looked like a 4th wave till 12:30pm, and final 5th wave high at 3;30pm
I really abhor saying FINAL, but this time I think its real

I had thought we would see another runup to another
higher high by the 23rd to 25th but thats sort of IFFY.

OK !! -- that was then --THIS IS NOW
best to look backward from April 3rd where the NEXT IMPORTANT LOW should occur
March 25th seems to offer the BEST time to get short to take advantage of that down move.
but do watch out for a moderate dip & rebound to the 31st, then the PLUNGE to a
possible new low- Ill get more specific later.

BUT what about this week? you ask -OK I get it, - you want to know
A Wed LOW is expected this week
moderate rebound on 19th and 20th
23rd to 25th Are called for MIXED at best
_______________________________________________________-
The problem with making forecasts more than one day at a time is they get lost in the shuffle
for example:
the week of the March 2nd, I projected a big rally from the 10th and we were one day early
by those projections , And the SAME thing can happen in the next 2 weeks
______________________________
So do remind me of these forecasts next week
thanks

More later
Jay

Are we WHERE yet?

Thats a terrific or horrific question that my kids use to ask after starting a trip to grandma's house
that was a 2 hour trip, so you can imagine the frustration after only 30 minutes into the trip

So where are we now?

At Major resistance now and even next week ??
SPX 752 , the Nov 20th closing low
but the dow is far from 7550 and another resistance point at 7190

My PROPRIETARY internals gave a SELL yesterday
see below

Heres the numbers
date--- A/D --Vol ratio------arms------a/d ave----vol ave---- 5trin----10trin
Mar6---314-------261-------- 164.2------62.8--------582-------821------1386
Mar12---2648----4965-------{62.4}-------529.2------993----{312}-----1169

The 5 day ARMS & 5 day TRIn in bold above
one is an aver, the other is a cumulative
at 62.4 & 312 those values are BOTH GROSSLY {{{ OVERBOT}}} as SHORT term indicators

Also on March 6th, the first 2 numbers @ 314 & 261 are
well under the 400 threshold for a buy signal
*************
NOW look at Mar12 numbers 2648 & 4965--
those are the highest values for those 2 indexes in 2 years
And whats more remarkable is the brevity of time of 3 days

Futures are meekly pointing higher this am for one more bump up against resistance
at 10;15am where there is a moon 120 Neptune
AhHHH yes
Neptune, planet of ILLUSION with the Moon a lower vibration of Neptune


Some have projected the spx to 770 as near term resistance
If that is the goal, then it would suggest option expiration for that level
However, something else stands in the way mid week

Heres my simple math model
750-670= 80 pt gain
770-80 = spx 690 - March 18th target
puts the dow at 6700

In Elliott terms, this is an A-B-C or 3 legged formation
"A" is today at 10am
"B" is March 18
"C" is Mar 20

The NEXT BIGGER LEG lower is on schedule for April3rd
maybe a new low ??

More Later
Jay

60 year chart

I made this bigger, but it got a little blurry

NOTICE

the sharp Decline in FEB is met with a quick rebound
AND RETEST LOWER within 10 days

Such action TODAY would equal
March 6th LOW
March 12th High
March 18th LOW

Its 2;45 and the 3pm high is getting near
looks like it wants to make it to 752 spx which would
be about 50 dow points higher to 7199

Ill mention it again
TODAY is an 8 day HIGH & Bradley date
TOMRROW is an 8 day TURN

3pm and 3:45 are typical times to look for
GLD same now as equities

March 12th reading calls for excitment
March 13 calls for a ROUTINE day & Accept a change

Jay

NO sell off today

As you can see, no sell off has occurred today and its now 11am

Today March 12th is a BRADLEY date, we can only look at it as a high
The 15th , SUNDAY is the next Bradely date and should offer a strong TURN lower.
The NEXT main Bradley date is April 8th which should be a low

the LOWER open TODAY @ the typical time of 9:45 might have been the LOd
11am IS a typical HOURLY HIGH

A SELL SIGNAL is building in the internals
5 day arms = 75.3 = a sell under 100.0
5 day trin = 379 = a sell under 400
Adv/decl proprietary ratio = 329.9
vol ratio = 619.8
All of those #s are on a sell, but Im sure in the next 2 days,
I will see more of the technical internals fall into place.

Today ALSO marks an 8 day which is now looking like it will be a high
that means tomrrow should mark the 8 day TURN

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Natural energy pattern shows tomrrow as a high
which ive been saying for a few days now

the NEXT BIG date of importance is Wed March 18th
nothing to do with the FED meeting, just coincidence
and it is leaning toward a LOW

SO, IF today marks the "A" wave HIGh, then March 18th should mark the "B" wave LOW
How LOW as we wrote b4?
If they close the dow at or near 7100, that would get the spx to 739/740

From there they could drop next week back to 6600 area & spx to 670

Since we did not sell off today, then I suspect the next, as indicated by Natural energy
rally from the 19th to the 25th will get above 740 level.

More Later
Jay

ELLIOTT Wave

A wave v or low was made on Friday at 6470

then wave 1 & 2 formed at closing of Monday March 9th

thats why wave 3 erupted as it did in typical wave 3 fashion
and it would appear that wave reached a peak as minor wave "A" at 7015 dow, spx 732
at 10am yesterday morning

What followed does look like wave 'a' and maybe even wv 'b' at the close

propensity index drops today from the late high yesterday from 3012 down to 3001
the Bar cycle hit a low yesterday at 2:30 dow off 80
which means today should also hit a low at 2:30 @ 258 bars
this would count as wv 'c' -"B"
then get ready for wave 'c' - "C" to a high on Friday, spx to 740 area

Futures were much lower early at about 5am, rebounded some, but are now at 9;15 trailing off again
How low is low? Spx 700 to 690 would be a fibo relationship to look for with dow about 6800-6750


More Later
Jay

Sell off after open

My propensity index is showing a higher open as the futures are already pointing that way
Power index did NOT show rally yesterday, and thus is somewhat cloudy for today, but does
seem to indicate a lower open tomrrow

A higher open should give way to selling later in the day with a lower open on the 12th

Should still be a good opp for another rally on the 13th
I will be buying calls sometime tomrrow and selling them at the close on Friday

Interesting phenomena
Bradley on 12th should offer a low
Bradley on 15th should offer a high = a Sunday
THAT only leaves the 13th in between

18th is setup on a natural energy chart for a low
How low? Cant say at all, but there's always a potential to retest 670

From the 18th to the 23rd and or 26th, they should RUN IT UP AGAIN

Major resistance, of course is SPX 754, the Nov 20th close and or 744, the intraday low of Nov21
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GOLD did drop from 1000 on Feb 23rd to 900 on March 10th , and could rebound some into the 18th where equities are due to make theri next important low. IF gold does rebound to the 18th, then I will be looking to buy puts on the GLD


More Later
Jay

Antother Pic

After that FACT we can see it very clearly

BUT next is a take away on March 11th
b4 Friday the 13th rally

More Later
Jay

Next Chart

Note the direction of the OBV and other technicals
OBV not very supportive of the rally

Heres some more daily tech data
Monday's arms was a .48 and today was a.49 but the Adv/Decl & Vol raw numbers were vastly
different even though they had nearly the same ratio

Jaywiz index
Monday = .12 is bearish and today .80 is bullish
they seem confused and should be opposite

Today's SPDR is an 82
CBOE = .73 and yesterday was .74, both bearish
spx = 1.01 and yesrday was 1.16 , neutral
OEX = .75 and yesterday was .59 - both bearish

GOLD continues to drop, I should have stuck with it
must will short the next rally, HMMm if I catch it right

Even the Power index did not give me an indication of the kind of day we had
and the propensity index left me confused

the only thing that should have tipped me off was the FULL MOON

Anyway we got some makin up to do

More Later
Jay

Conracting Triangle

Notice the triangle and the dropo afterward
Then look at the OBV and other indicators , MACD & oscillator
All took the same dive


More Later