Thursday, May 13, 2010

May 13th EKG

4pm May 13th
AS we have seen MANY times the MKT FELL off in the last hour this time during the SAME
trading day. Often the EKG shows the late day higher than actually occurs, so NOW we KNOW
its NOT the amplitude that counts, ITS THE DIRECTION.
Sorry about the delayed publishing of the EKG- unavoidable interference this AM

Yesterday displayed a late day high, but the drop off never occurred

Today replication appears accurate up til 11am
DOWN open
Recover at 10;45
second dip at 11am
high at 10:45 @ spx 1174
IS that high enuf or is there one more run up coming after the NOONish lows?

120bars @ 10am was a dip
150bars at 12:30
180bars@ 3pm

Contrary to the MAY Map, we may NOW see 3 days off to a low on MONDAY
YES -- MONDAY May17th which seems to indicate some kind of Financial BLOCKAGE

in contrast- Tuesday May 18th read calls for resolving recent problems from
the day before, and thus STILL has potential for strong rally day.

Propensity index has been dropping steadily from a high of 3017 on the 11th
to NOW at 2993 at 11am today, but STOCK prices HAVE NOT responded in like kind-
at least NOT yet
I say that because we had a similar picture LAST WEEK as it dropped from a similar high
to a flattened low from the 4th to the 9th, but stocks did not respond until it got to its lows

more later


Reza said...


what does tomorrow look like

Kc135a said...

If Jay is correct about Monday being a potential low then I could argue we are at the same place on 2/3. Been looking at that date for two days but evidence was inclusive to take a trade. Also this is the first day in quite a while the Index P/C has shown market weakness.

AS said...

KC - can you explain what you mean ...

RickyBobby said...

My shorts are making lots of mney today.

How y'all doing!

Abdullah said...

US$ (UUP) breaking out as B. Pound, Swiss F, & Euro break down.

The three day rally is over and the S & P 1173 barrier was not met or exceeded---next test is 1150

Reza said...

Someone woke up the bears

Still TZA & FAZ

RickyBobby said...

took profits.

RickyBobby said...

taking second 3rd profits

RickyBobby said...

closing final 3rd of a very large position I was accumulating yesterday as per my posts and this morning.

grodnyc said...

Nice!! Took some profits too...should have held a little longer for a bigger one..oh well! Profit is a profit :)

RickyBobby said...


way to go partner.

saw your posts too. awesome.

AS said...

Closed out my puts .. 20% profit on very small position ... still holding to my underwater calls on USO and AKS ... any thoughts welcome ..

Jay - pls can you share what you are seeing for tomm ...

Jay Strauss said...

tomrrow should start lower

204bars at 10;30
13 day cycle at noon
258bars at 3pm


AS said...

Jay - thanks for sharing .... can you share any initial view of the EKG ... even if it is half a day ...

You had mentioned that you expected the new moon turn from 13th, with move up into 18th .. so trying to understand what made you change your thoughts for 14th ....

Jay Strauss said...

Its not REALLY a change
Drop started one day late
just as the rally on the 10th was one day early

We Need to make allowances for variations
I need to learn to read the signals better-gg


AS said...

We all strive to improve - thats what we are here for - isn't it :)

One more q ... you mentioned the bars in your forecasts which you mentioned is how the mkt breathes ... you also mentioned 258 bars is typically a pivot low there also a rule for the other bar numbers you mentioned and also day cycle i.e. 13 day is typically a high / low .... etc

Jay Strauss said...

13 CYCLE has FIBO parts
84.5Hours- broken down by its fibo parts
Typically the 13day completion HAS indicated an important pivot low
since Is started following it on Nov 21st , 2008 at 11:05 am

However the May 5th low of 11am did NOT produce such a pivot
, but a LOW did occur on the 7th at 10:28Am at a 14.6% segment of the 13 day cycle

the NEXT 13 day is due on May 24th at 11am

258bars has its ROOT from the FIBO number 377 as per STAN HARLEY

Bar cycles are divided by segments every 2+1/2 hours
258bars = 21 hours

2+1/2 hours = 30bars

12 bars per hour
78 per day

we get a pivot every 30bars, but it DOES NOT HAVE TO BE A MAJOR turn, can be just a minor setback in a RISING trend

the more important pivots seem to turn up at
60 -90 126-180-204-228 -258
note that some are 2 hours and some are 3hours, with an AVER of 2+1/2

And sometimes it is influenced
by energy events during the day

Stan Harley NOTED a CHANGE in TREND on Day 162 from last Spt 9th, which occurred on APRIL27th
I dont think any more needs to be said on that call.