8am UPDATE shows NO upside at openBUt any rebound is subject to further losses
using math model below we can only suspect certain levels to be met
such as
1060 to 1044 to 1020- again ONLY MATH levels NOT a prediction.
Some have even thrown out 980 for consideration, ???? imo ,NONE of those TODAY
how soon then, you ask ?
well if NOT today, then Monday at 11am has similar connotations to Nov 21st at 11am
but some of those levels are still not attainable yet.
The ABOVE EKG is very similar to XTIDE's RED tide today
HELGE shows a LOW at or near today and or 24th- hard to tell exactly per his charts
ACTIVITY index is coming OFF a LOW earlier this morning at 6am of 133,
and at 9am is now at 200, which might indicate a brief dip and recovery by 10;30
90 bars hits at 11:30 giving plenty of time to bounce around prior to the pivot
126bars at 2;30 means that after 11;30, there more time to rebound till at least 1pm
156bars would then occur on MONDAY at 10:30 along with the 13 day at 11am, and hourly pivot
Jay
We can see there should be a LOWER low tomrrow, and the END of day is not yet availableWe also cannot be sure about the open with a move UP or not,
and will depend upon what the futures tell as at 8:30am
on the 19th As of 7 pm, futures are only off about 5pts
90bars at 11;30
126bars @ 2:30pm
40 pt rule of thumb
1220- 1072 = 148 / 40 = 3.7
1220 - 160 = spx @ 1060
1220- 200 = spx @ 1020
this is NOT a prediction nor a projection, Just the MATH, folks, just the Math
the MIDDLE Ground today was at 1090, the 200 day line and major support
NOW broken, even tho grossly oversold, just like Nov 19th lost 400 pts, so did Nov 20th , 2008
TOmrrow is 377 NOV 20th closing low
Monday is 377 Nov 21st @ 11am
377/13 = 29 rotations of 13 days @ 11am
____________
JUNE 2nd is 377 from DEC 1st, that infamous day of 700 pts lost,
WHich led to a stronger December
IN between, we have negative energy on May 26 to 28
________________________________
SO<
important FIBO 377 tr day cycle hits tomrrow & Monday at 11am
IMPORTANT influence LOW due on MAY 28th
important TURN on JUNE2nd = a Bradley TURN
Bradley dates in JUNE 2, 10, 26th
_________________
June should END higher
----------------
13 day cycle has been solid
Monday at noon was 62%/13 day
WEd at 12;25 was 78.6%/13day
Monday at 11am is 100 %/13day
Jay
50 comments:
moderate Trin (1.20) suggests we still haven't hit rock bottom
http://www.tickerville.com/index.php/site/comments/stop_buying_the_dip/
Abdullah
How did you get that arms index
Arms index today was 4.08
.5572/1366
Jay
IMO< sell any higher open, if we get one at all
A market like this suddenly turns
bears into bulls
SOME are Looking for that 400 pts rally like May10th
IMO
DONT DO IT until after May28th
We still might get an open rally off US employment data, but I will be shorting it
Jay
Jay, SPX is wedging. R u going to cover your long term TZA today. or cover everything 27/28th
Most likely cover on 28th
but am thinking about partial on Monday at 11am
Jay
Jay
I think cover some around 1056, then reshort around 1080 area. OPEX interest was 118, so I think they may play around 108 area
Jay
QQQQ has a weekly sell signal. How do u interpret this, is this the beginning
Reza
1060 OPEn
1060 is 160 OFF the high
1220 - 1060
160/4 = 40pts
1060 to 1056 should be bouncy bouncy time, but dont expect a BOTTOM
just added update to main page
Jay
can someone interpret for me?
newest chart has a low at about what time???
I gather that amplitude is not accurate only direction
looks like a high around??? 1pm then sell off into the close?
BENJOYCE
IGNORE AMPLITUDE
only DIRECTION counts
FOLLOW the BAR cycles which have been good as well as the 13 day cycles for pivots
Highs in between, usually at or near 11am, 1pm, and 3pm
I dont know why this is such a hard concept
it happens nearly every day
Jay
Crash
Activity in RISING trend off the morning low at 5am of 133, NOW at 225 at 9:30 am
Jay
I covered skf, tza and qid, today
there are projections by some to spx 925 for the bottom of this wave
that would set back to last July/ Aug lows
1044 is FEB low
once broken, then next lower retest looks like 880 on JULY 10th
Jay
As yuo can see the MKT bouncy bouncy
after an initial low just under 1060
When to SHORT again
ANyone got the answer?
Reza says 1080
sounds ok,
time wise, maybe 1pm which is between the bar cycles and is a usual & customary high turn on a daily basis
10am and mkt is now positive
Activity index HOLDING at 225
Jay
Jay
I think let them do the OPEX thing until 1080 area, then short.
How does Monday open look like
Jay
May be even go to 1090
Jay
so far Mon & Tue looks up, the way the futures are climbing.
What do u see.
Or should we wait until Tue to short
Jay,
I think rrman is right to go long, because everyone is looking for 1050. Remember our original plan, long at 1056, when bears wake up.
Jay
If it closes up 1092 today, its safe to go long until Tue as you mentioned earlier
Helge & Chartsedge plan are working
http://www.chartsedge.com/subsp82546.html
Any thoughts
I went Heavy Long for Huge rally into next week, I covered this morning for our typical OPEX short squeeze rally from hell.
See you guys on Wed morning where I'll take massive profits.
Reza
It would appear we ahve rached an important level from which we get SOME BOUNCY
BUT, do you really want to go long other than a SCALP trade
POWER index SHOWS the RALLY today, but it also indicates a slippage
lower from today's into intraday high into Monday morning concurring with the 13 day cycle pivot low at 11am
HOWEVER< it also shows LOWER from 24th on to 28th
As I posted the POWER index SHOWED an UPTICK today as it jumped from 300 at open to 500, by mid day
Jay
back in FAz
Reza
1090 sh seems like a very good target for re shorting
It was the BREAK down support, NOW turns into Resistance
They got to 1080 in a eye blink
at 10am, and now will look for 1090 at or near 1pm.
at 11am, Activity index ticked down one notch to 200
Jay
We're going higher than 1090.
Watch!
FAZ owners are going to get burned n the "short" run
lol
Ricky
I think so higher until Tuesday
Ricky
one minute its crash and the next to the moon
1090 is a VERY critical level
We have NOT reached a tradable BOTTOM
the dates Ive published HAVE NOT gone away
May 28th is CRITICAL
and could find the SPX under 1000
BOTTOM OF wave 3
THEN as posted, JUNE IS AN UP MONTH with the 26th as potential high = WAVE 4
thus July & Aug = wave 5
I realize its much too soon to project all of the above as it gets lost within minutes
but WE must keep some perspective
Jay
out faz, in FAS
Jay
Until Tuesday looks ok based on the 2 hour chart
if xlf above 14.82 at close, swing long fas
Jay
I've got buy signals about to trigger on some short term cycles. Not trying to predict here. Just reacting to market and what it's showing me.
I said "in the short run", not "to the moon".
However short run could morph into something longer. Can't tell right now. So I'm taking position and wait to cross next bridge when we get there.
I don't want to sit on sideline and watch this get away from me although if you're not already in this morning it might be hard to get in now.
Rick
I get that for sure
Im looking at 2pm for late short, and close out position at close
the 11am pivot Monday should be good for runup MON & Tue
BUt today may not settle on a high
EKG suggests not
Jay
Activity Index had DROPPED from
233 this morning to 100 NOW at 2:30pm
Jay
Jay
VIX dropped
So its better to take a short position when VIX 33
out of FAS
TYP long
short short
no relief in sight
Weekly confirmed sell signal on QQQQ. So will play that one
Jay
It looks like 1020 in the cards
If it closes under 1070, then 1020 in the cards
monday shaping out to be 300 points day as Jay mentioned
as of now looks down
Reza,
I did NOT project a 300 pt down day on Monday
Dont know where you got that
BUT
11am is 13 day cycle pivot
wherever that gets them to, but I dont see less than 1056 until later next week
we appear to have hit wv iii
now in wv iv, in which we got to 1090, and might get to fibo 1119
before crumbling in wv v
This is ALL JUST wave 1 of P3.
Jay
Jay
i meant if we close under 1070
close above 1083, then gap up
GAP UP Monday
goods like gap down small one
because we are now in a up channel i think the big down days are over for a few weeks big up days will be on tap now
May 28th HAS not moved away
and is still out there next week
Last 30 min rally picked up the red tide rather than the green tide it was following ALL DAY which would have ended lower
1148 on May 18th open- 1056 today at open = 92 pts
92x 38.2% = 35pts =spx1089
92x 78.6% = 72pts =spx1128
OR somewhere in between
but thats the range for Mon& Tues
the first wave
1220 - 1056 = 164pts
got back to 1148 or 92 pts
was 55%
IF wave4 gets to 1120
then wave 5 could lose 92 to 150 pts and head under to 1020 to 975
Jay
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