THE FUTURE

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Thursday, May 19, 2011

Market Timing-Whats Next -May 19th Closing report

May 19 @ 8am
It would appear the best scenario for bears is a back off to yesterday's rally later today, and into tomrrow's open, but NO 5th wave decline to 1300, not today.

That would change the wave count to an A-B& C wv low of 1318 on the 17th at 11:30am

Thus the next high looks like tomrrow afternoon, which could top out at the 1350 level

1370-1318=52pts
52X 50% = 26
1318+26=1344 which got didnt quite get hit at 1342

The above would change back to the original only if today drops to near 1300 by the close,
and at this time, that looks very doubtful, but a backdrop to a level near or above 1318 is very likely


Either way, a short term BUY would be llikely for tomrow's open thus heading back to a close at or near 1344 to 1350
52X 62% = 32+ 1318 = 1350

That would mean this ENTIRE correction Starting May 2nd would end as a FLAT thus matching
the PREVIOUS LOW of spx 1250, which would occur on May 27th and or 31st.

A FLAT as described above indicates the MKT has underlying strength and often occurs just prior to an extension or a 5th wave of the trend from the famous Mar9th low at 666.

Thus they could back to 1370 where the 78.6% retrace got hit on May 2nd.
An initial SPURT would be expected off the May 31st low at or near 1250, and even if STILL an expanded flat, the low would be expected at about the 1225 level.


Jay
note the AM futures holding steady at 1344, even with very good employment news
 A late drop back to 1320-1325 would be within the wave structure above

after mkt notes
WILL THEY RUN TO 1370 from the open OR drop back to 1325 till 11am, 
then recover to close at 1350
I would almost prefer a run to 1370 to conclude an ENDING diag triangle, but somehow
I just dont think thats the plan.

Either way, a decline next 10days could take the spx to1250

Jay

5 comments:

joed said...

I showed price confluence last night for this morn.......if anyone is interested! Good trading! joed

http://traderjoed.blogspot.com/

Abdullah said...

We are back to 1998, where .com sites makes no money (linkedin) and trading at $110 .... danger Mrs. Robinson.

Kc135a said...

With few exceptions the first 5 days before a new moon are bullish and the next new moon is 6/1. If the pattern continues a trading bottom should be no later than Tuesday of next week.

Jay Strauss said...

THERE ARE SOME WHO ARE looking at the wave structure off 1250 as an ENDING Diag triangle

IF SO< then the wv 5 high has got to FAIL 1370.
from right here at 1344, they would have to gain no more than
26 spx pts and actually fall short of that to some degree

IF it does do that and completes
the triangle, then NEXT WEEK could easily take out 100 spx points by the 31st.

Jay

worm said...

Jay
So turn day on Friday or Monday?